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Kassy
09-03-2008, 01:14 PM
A new study by climate scientists behind the controversial 1998 "hockey stick" graph suggests their earlier analysis was broadly correct.

Michael Mann's team analysed data for the last 2,000 years, and concluded that Northern Hemisphere temperatures now are "anomalously warm".

Different analytical methods give the same result, they report in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The 1998 hockey stick was a totem of debates over man-made global warming.

The graph - indicating that Northern Hemisphere temperatures had been roughly constant for 1,000 years (the "shaft" of the stick) before turning abruptly upwards in the industrial age - featured prominently in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) 2001 assessment.

But some academics questioned its methodology and conclusions, and increasingly strident condemnations reverberated around the blogosphere.

One US politician demanded to see financial and research records from the scientists involved.

However, a 2006 report from the National Research Council (NRC), commissioned by the US Congress, broadly endorsed its conclusion that Northern Hemisphere temperatures in the late 20th Century were probably warmer than at any time in the previous 400 years, and perhaps at any time during the previous 1,000 years.

Twin study

Since then, a number of research groups have produced new "proxy records" of temperatures from the centuries before thermometers were widely deployed.

Such proxies include the growth patterns of trees and coral, the contents of ice cores and sediments, and temperature fluctuations in boreholes.

In their latest study, Dr Mann's group collated more than 1,200 proxy records - the majority from the Northern Hemisphere - and used different statistical methods to analyse their cumulative message.

"We used two different methods that are quite complementary in the assumptions they make about data, so that provides a test of the sensitivity of data to the methods used," he told BBC News.

"We also made use of a far wider network of proxy data than previously available.

"Ten years ago, the availability of data became quite sparse by the time you got back to 1,000 AD, and what we had then was weighted towards tree-ring data; but now you can go back 1,300 years without using tree-ring data at all and still get a verifiable conclusion."

Both analytical methods produced graphs similar to the original hockey stick, though starting further back in time. The "shaft" now extends back to about 700 AD.

The same basic pattern emerged when tree-ring data - whose reliability has been questioned - was excluded from the analysis.

"I think that having this extra data and using more methods to analyse it makes the conclusions more robust," commented Gabi Hegerl from the University of Edinburgh, UK, who was not involved in the research.

Past lessons

Critics of the idea of man-made climate change argue that conditions 1,000 years ago were as warm as, if not warmer than, they are today.

The new paper adds to the evidence against that notion. One of the analytical methods used suggests that temperatures in the Mediaeval Warm Period could have been no higher than they were in about 1980; the other suggests they were no higher than those seen 100 years ago.

In any case, said Dr Hegerl: "The whole line of argument [about whether temperatures have been as high in the past as they are now] is not very relevant."

The climate has always responded to factors such as changes in solar activity or volcanic eruptions, and always will, she said; the issue now is how it is responding to greenhouse gas emissions.

"In any case, the paper still comes to the firm conclusion that the most recent decades are unusual."

Ten years on from the study that provoked all the ire, Michael Mann's conclusion is that far from being broken, "the hockey stick is alive and well".

But, the Penn State University researcher added: "If we want to understand things like El Nino and how it relates to climate change, it's not enough to know just how anomalously warm the climate is today.

"We need to learn from the palaeoclimatic record. The science is not all done, there's still a lot of work to do; but what we are seeing now is definitely unusual in the context of the past."

A particular desire of scientists in the field is to increase the amount of data from the Southern Hemisphere. The majority of proxy records come from land rather than sea, and from land not covered in ice at that, which is in relatively short supply south of the equator.

Richard.Black-INTERNET@bbc.co.uk
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7592575.stm


So there. :beer:

BuilderBob
09-03-2008, 03:04 PM
So the past never happened! Ah, well, lets ignore that and look to the future. :)

Have a look at real time bouy data (http://www.crrel.usace.army.mil/sid/IMB/newdata.htm) from the Arctic, scroll down and read the current temperatures. This is not brass monkey country, no ways. :eek:

Remember those guys in the Kayaks? Paddling to the ice free North Pole? Well, read Sam Branson's Arctic diary (http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2008/09/01/sam-branson-s-arctic-diary-115875-20720564/). They are at Day 5 and complaining of cold and ice yet they have about 600 miles still to go! Must be something wrong with the weather.
:beer:

Fiddlerdave
09-03-2008, 03:25 PM
So the past never happened! Ah, well, lets ignore that and look to the future. :)

Have a look at real time bouy data (http://www.crrel.usace.army.mil/sid/IMB/newdata.htm) from the Arctic, scroll down and read the current temperatures. This is not brass monkey country, no ways. :eek:

Remember those guys in the Kayaks? Paddling to the ice free North Pole? Well, read Sam Branson's Arctic diary (http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2008/09/01/sam-branson-s-arctic-diary-115875-20720564/). They are at Day 5 and complaining of cold and ice yet they have about 600 miles still to go! Must be something wrong with the weather.
:beer::lol: So GW is not happening until the Arctic has the same climate as Miami Beach?

Kassy
09-03-2008, 04:06 PM
So the past never happened! Ah, well, lets ignore that and look to the future. :)

Have a look at real time bouy data (http://www.crrel.usace.army.mil/sid/IMB/newdata.htm) from the Arctic, scroll down and read the current temperatures. This is not brass monkey country, no ways. :eek:

Remember those guys in the Kayaks? Paddling to the ice free North Pole? Well, read Sam Branson's Arctic diary (http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2008/09/01/sam-branson-s-arctic-diary-115875-20720564/). They are at Day 5 and complaining of cold and ice yet they have about 600 miles still to go! Must be something wrong with the weather.
:beer:

That's confusing timescales.
Would be a cool link for the arctic watch though.

BuilderBob
09-04-2008, 04:39 AM
:lol: So GW is not happening until the Arctic has the same climate as Miami Beach?

Even the most bizarre claims of the GW alarmists don't rise to those heights.

Michael Mann is coming along well. His claim that the world has never been as warm in the past as it is now is mind boggling. This denies thousands of years of geological history and he calls us deniers!

On the basis of his forcasts of global warming the Arctic was predicted to be ice free this summer. Then the forecast was down graded to just the pole being ice free. So two dumb bunnies in kayaks are going to get into the history books by paddling to the pole. They are accompanied by a substantial specially modified fishing boat, which burns fossil fuel yet, so they can warm up their poor cold buts and frozen tootsies each night. And they are believers!

I bet the eskimos are creased up.

BuilderBob
09-04-2008, 04:50 AM
That's confusing timescales.
Would be a cool link for the arctic watch though.

Lost me on the time scales. The future has already started and continues tomorrow.

Re the Arctic watch bouys, I'm hoping that more data from Argos bouys in the oceans world wide will be posted. Not all 3000 plus of them! :D

Preliminary reports are of a slow steady drop in ocean temperatures. The actual data period is too short for anyone to stand up and say there is a positive cooling trend.
But so far it looks promising. :beer:

cpeterka
09-04-2008, 12:50 PM
Latest Ice Cover on the North Pole...

http://www.nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_extent_hires.png

It's fun to see it from One day to the next, to see the part over by Alaska shrinking.
I save the current one to my Wallpaper, and then bring up tomorrows and compare before replacing the wallpaper with the new stuff.

Kassy
09-04-2008, 03:01 PM
Even the most bizarre claims of the GW alarmists don't rise to those heights.

Michael Mann is coming along well. His claim that the world has never been as warm in the past as it is now is mind boggling. This denies thousands of years of geological history and he calls us deniers!

Oh cut out the outrage, relax and actually read the stuff.

Kindly reposted from post #1 so you don't even have to scroll: :D


Michael Mann's team analysed data for the last 2,000 years, and concluded that Northern Hemisphere temperatures now are "anomalously warm".

You're claim is the bizarre one.

Or you're practicing to become a good denier. ;)

Kassy
09-04-2008, 03:22 PM
Lost me on the time scales.

Comparing recent real time data to a collection of worldwide sources on two millenia of climate data is comparing apples and oranges.

Like you say they don't have enough data to point out a trend in their own data.

The temperatures anywhere on a certain day doesn't matter compared to those long term records.

BuilderBob
09-05-2008, 02:02 AM
The temperatures anywhere on a certain day doesn't matter compared to those long term records.

:) Good advice. Wish those chuckle heads in the IPCC paid attention to that.

Anyway, here is some interesting reading (or not) about the fallacy in the global warming debate:

CLIMATE CHANGE – The real causes (http://nzclimatescience.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=339&Itemid=1)

by Professor Geoffrey G Duffy
DEng, PhD, BSc, ASTC Dip., FRS NZ, FIChemE, CEng
-----------------------------

I have lived and worked for several years in the Middle East and in the dessert areas in South Africa and Namibia. I have experienced intense heat during the day, 45C and more, followed by temperature drops to -1C or lower. Okay thats not very low, but believe me, when in was 45C only twelve hours earlier, that is very shocking. Yes, I agree those extremes are limited, but daily swings of 25 to 30 degrees were normal. You learned great respect for the power of the sun or suffered accordingly.

Those experiences, among others in Malaysia and India, made me an automatic sceptic of CO2 induced global warming. Not being a scientist I am unable to express my intuitive reasonings. Professor Duffy explains it very well indeed.

Well, one adapts. I am preparing for a cold winter. Just bought a multi fuel cast iron stove as I feel I will not be able to afford the price of the gas for my underfloor heating system this winter.

I contacted the UK distributer of the stove and learned it was made in China from recycled ships!!!

dbuk
09-05-2008, 08:36 AM
So the past never happened! Ah, well, lets ignore that and look to the future. :)

Have a look at real time bouy data (http://www.crrel.usace.army.mil/sid/IMB/newdata.htm) from the Arctic, scroll down and read the current temperatures. This is not brass monkey country, no ways. :eek:

Remember those guys in the Kayaks? Paddling to the ice free North Pole? Well, read Sam Branson's Arctic diary (http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2008/09/01/sam-branson-s-arctic-diary-115875-20720564/). They are at Day 5 and complaining of cold and ice yet they have about 600 miles still to go! Must be something wrong with the weather.
:beer:


Bob your argument seems to be that because somebody is finding it cold whilst kayaaking in the artic circle, global warming can't be happening. You do realise that that is a pretty stupid argument?

"Hold on guys you know what it is quite cold up here today - I have to wear a coat and everything - let's not worry about global warming" :D

dbuk
09-05-2008, 08:39 AM
And you know I just looked at the temperature buoys as you suggested:

Buoy 2008B:
Date: 2008-09-04
Lat: 85.831 N
Long: 88.377 W
Air temp: -2.2 C
Air pressure: 1010.5 mb
ARGOS ID: 07440

Buoy 2008C:
Date: 2008-09-04
Lat: 85.245 N
Long: 74.783 W
Air temp: -2.8 C
Air pressure: 1007.8 mb
ARGOS ID: 30045

Buoy 2008D:
Date: 2008-09-04
Lat: 84.117 N
Long: 116.686 W
Air temp: -4.8 C
Air pressure: 1019.5 mb
ARGOS ID: 30294

Buoy 2008E:
Date: 2008-09-04
Lat: 83.093 N
Long: 2.734 E
Air temp: -0.5 C
Air pressure: 992.0 mb
ARGOS ID: 30065

Buoy 2008F:
Date: 2008-09-04
Lat: 76.611 N
Long: 140.095 W
Air temp: -5.1 C
Air pressure: 1025.4 mb
ARGOS ID: 29557


I have been colder in London!

BuilderBob
09-05-2008, 06:09 PM
Bob your argument seems to be that because somebody is finding it cold whilst kayaaking in the artic circle, global warming can't be happening. You do realise that that is a pretty stupid argument?

"Hold on guys you know what it is quite cold up here today - I have to wear a coat and everything - let's not worry about global warming" :D

Hmm... seems like you have got over your hissy fit. I don't have any particular tricks to get up to. I am well aware this thread is about the revived "hockey stick".

The original "hockey stick" graph was grabbed by warming alarmists as "proof" that global thermal runaway was imminent and the world is in dire peril. A side issue of our impending doom was all the Arctic ice will melt this year and polar bears will drown.

Seems like the predictions are looking unlikely, especially since global warming has been put on hold. Climate models are being configured with new "revived data" and new predictions will appear with much fanfare shortly.

In the mean time, the Arctic ice is doing strange things, not least its failure to melt away. This has caused problems for the kayak guys as they haven't done any paddling at all for the last two days.

The link to the Arctic bouys, flagged as "real time" on the home page, but timestamped on the data page, offer an interesting insight to current temps at the pole. The temperatures seem to change quite rapidly. You are quite free to ignore them.

Torange
09-05-2008, 08:36 PM
How does a satellite tell the difference between open ocean and a melted pool of water sitting on ice 10 meters thick?

Ramius31
09-05-2008, 09:30 PM
How does a satellite tell the difference between open ocean and a melted pool of water sitting on ice 10 meters thick?


Thermal imaging?

Auburn Boy
09-05-2008, 10:16 PM
:) Good advice. Wish those chuckle heads in the IPCC paid attention to that.

Anyway, here is some interesting reading (or not) about the fallacy in the global warming debate:

CLIMATE CHANGE – The real causes (http://nzclimatescience.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=339&Itemid=1)

by Professor Geoffrey G Duffy
DEng, PhD, BSc, ASTC Dip., FRS NZ, FIChemE, CEng
-----------------------------

I have lived and worked for several years in the Middle East and in the dessert areas in South Africa and Namibia. I have experienced intense heat during the day, 45C and more, followed by temperature drops to -1C or lower. Okay thats not very low, but believe me, when in was 45C only twelve hours earlier, that is very shocking. Yes, I agree those extremes are limited, but daily swings of 25 to 30 degrees were normal. You learned great respect for the power of the sun or suffered accordingly.

Those experiences, among others in Malaysia and India, made me an automatic sceptic of CO2 induced global warming. Not being a scientist I am unable to express my intuitive reasonings. Professor Duffy explains it very well indeed.

Well, one adapts. I am preparing for a cold winter. Just bought a multi fuel cast iron stove as I feel I will not be able to afford the price of the gas for my underfloor heating system this winter.

I contacted the UK distributer of the stove and learned it was made in China from recycled ships!!!


Nice anecdote..,

Auburn Boy
09-05-2008, 10:17 PM
Nice anecdote..,

Auburn Boy
09-05-2008, 10:20 PM
I very much liked the image presented in the NSIDC link.

Looks like Artic ice this summer is about 25% less than the statistical average. (Of course the "statistical average" only represents a few decades of actual measurements.)

Industrial Age Hockey.

Works for me.

Auburn Boy
09-05-2008, 10:22 PM
Radar. (And thermal imaging. Thanks Ramius.)

BuilderBob
09-06-2008, 02:54 AM
Nice anecdote..,


Thank you. the point I was trying to make is that air temperature drops rapidly on a clear night but not on a cloudy night. We still have the same CO2 in the air, so what gives?

Apologies for the link I posted. It is now demanding registration. Google found this LINK (http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/09/04/even-doubling-or-tripling-the-amount-of-co2-will-have-little-impact-on-temps/).

BuilderBob
09-06-2008, 03:22 AM
Oh cut out the outrage, relax and actually read the stuff.

Kindly reposted from post #1 so you don't even have to scroll: :D

.

You're claim is the bizarre one.

Or you're practicing to become a good denier. ;)

Thank you Kassy. I have read post #1 again looking for enlightenment. I fail to find any. Really, it is a bit like the parsons egg, the good bits are repeated. :)

I am not qualified to discuss in detail the "hockey stick" graph. I can only look out of the window or go for a walk along the excellent coastal paths we have here and note that it is no warmer this summer than any I've experienced in the past.

I am not just a practising denier, I am an activist, I am preparing for the coming cold.

My, (long pause trying to think of suitable adjectives) government has sold off most of our energy companies to foreign countries such that we are now almost entirely dependant on Russian gas and French (nuclear) electricity with consequent horrendous rise in costs for such energy. There are many tax rises based on forcing consumers to "reduce carbon emmissions" such fuel costs have caused food costs to rocket by about 40% so far.

This has come about from policy made on the reports about the first "hockey stick".

Kassy
09-06-2008, 03:46 AM
Thank you. the point I was trying to make is that air temperature drops rapidly on a clear night but not on a cloudy night. We still have the same CO2 in the air, so what gives?

Apologies for the link I posted. It is now demanding registration. Google found this LINK (http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/09/04/even-doubling-or-tripling-the-amount-of-co2-will-have-little-impact-on-temps/).

Well for starters it all does begin with the power of the sun. Like you probably noticed in Namibia the sun tends to rise in the morning and then warms our piece of the world during the day and when it sets it cools.

This is not something that changes. The difference in cooling between clear nights and overcast nights is also a given.

If you were to measure the effect of CO2 in one place in real time it does vary depending on water vapor being present or not which varies due to...well weather. That's why you need longer time series.

Collect time series from many places and you could see effect of CO2 emerge even though the component it adds to daily temperature every day is much smaller then the total temperature swing over that same day.

~

Oh and CO2 collects in the atmosphere over time and stays around while the water is going in loops: evaporate, float around, rain down.

Prof Duffy sounds all erudite. Collected lot's of acronyms too. He must gotten one for free with every run of the mill contrarian talking point. Probably became a professor for confusing feedbacks and forcings.


Many now even trust models and their ‘theoretical results’ more than actual measurements and facts from reality.

Luckily we can quite clearly see something is happening quite clearly by looking at the news on the arctic sea ice, the Canadian shelves collapsing , continued melt in Greenland, continued retreat of many glaciers , increased melt in permafrost areas etc etc.

Does this correlate well with clouds disappearing over the arctic?
Does this correlate well with snow not falling on Greenland?
Permafrost melting due to clear days and very clouded nights?

:beer:

BuilderBob
09-06-2008, 04:11 AM
Well for starters it all does begin with the power of the sun. tsk, tsk, this could get you in to trouble in some quarters. :D

Excellent synopsis. You have a very good grasp of the creedo.

Now it all seems to boil down to CO2. This stuff collects in the atmosphere and makes it hotter, and since it doesn't go away, any more is going to be a disaster, right?

So we should put it to use. That seems to be an excellent energy storage system. What I suggest is we get some clear plastic containers, (capture the CO2 from the maufacturing process) and fill the containers with pure CO2.

To follow up what I have read about science lab experiments, let the containers warm up in the sun, bring the containers indoors at night, and voila, radiative forcing will keep the house warm.

Should I patent the idea? :beer:


Blast! I just remembered Michael Mann would have priority! But he has put it in the public domain! :D

BuilderBob
09-06-2008, 04:26 AM
Luckily we can quite clearly see something is happening quite clearly by looking at the news on the arctic sea ice, the Canadian shelves collapsing , continued melt in Greenland, continued retreat of many glaciers , increased melt in permafrost areas etc etc.

Yes indeed. All due to over thirty years of unprecedented solar activity. Look up solar cycles 20, 21 and 22. 23 was a bit wimpish, but El Nino was nicely charged up by the warm oceans in 1998. Solar cycle 24 seems to be sulking, won't show itself. But we are paying a price . There is so much water vapor in the air that the sun has hardly shown itself over the past two months. If this lasts much longer the rain will turn to snow. :eek:

(ps the kayaakers have given up. too much ice!) :beer: