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caonacl
05-17-2009, 06:41 PM
Low Pressure in Caribbean Heads Our Way


As of Sunday afternoon, the flare-up to the southeast of Jamaica looks impressive, but is really just a disorganized complex of showers and storms.

In fact, it doesn’t have many tropical characteristics as it’s associated with a mid to upper-level trough and has cooler air aloft.

Tropical systems have warm cores throughout the atmosphere and stand independently from troughs and fronts.

Regardless, the area of low pressure is going to move in our direction and bring the state of Florida plenty of rainfall from Monday afternoon through Wednesday.

While we’ve had our fair share of rain lately, I think the entire state is in line for a good dousing now.

Brush fire and drought problems continue across parts of central Florida, but Mother Nature will help that in a big way.
I think by the end of the week, parts of eastern, central and northeastern Florida will pick up a good 4-8” of rain. For us,
I can see 2-4” from Monday afternoon to Wednesday as an average. Although a lot of details of this storm will need to be updated as we go along.

With the rain, also comes the breeze.

We’ll see it pick up tomorrow afternoon and become most active Tuesday with sustained winds near 20 mph.

The east and northeast coast will be affected more as winds pick up to 20-30 mph by mid-week with higher gusts.

The winds on the east and northeast coast will be onshore so riptides and beach erosion may come in to play over there.

For us, it’s an offshore wind Tuesday and that means no issues along the beach. Although, the boating forecast will be a rough one.

The area of low pressure looks like it wanders northwest into the northern or northeastern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday and Friday.
If it has any chance to become a sub-tropical storm (which would give it the name Ana), it would be late in the week as it moves just off the Louisiana to Florida Panhandle coastline.

It would be in this area that it could separate itself from the upper-level trough and strong wind shear (prohibits development).
Water temperatures are just above the 80 degree mark so the core of the system could become warmer, but, the waters quickly cool just beneath the surface so it’s hard to envision this system picking up a lot of strength.

Some of that cooler water beneath the surface would quickly get pulled up, restricting future development.

Right now it’s still a low chance that it gets the first name of the season, but name it or not, it will bring plenty of rain and breezy weather to the state.
http://www.nbc-2.com/articles/readarticle.asp?articleid=29663&z=3

dyrt
05-17-2009, 06:45 PM
Could this be 1st Tropical Storm of 2009Yahoo, at least we have the first tropical post.

caonacl
05-17-2009, 06:52 PM
Yahoo, at least we have the first tropical post.
It was what I was mainly shoot'n fer:beer:

penguinzee
05-17-2009, 07:03 PM
Ain't gonna be much more than a bunch of rain for a couple days here in Tampa-and boy do we need it!!!

Seems there's always some little flareup like this around this time of year, good to keep an eye on, but no big deal otherwise... :yawn:

Franc (penguinzee)

caonacl
05-17-2009, 11:14 PM
Sunday, May 17, 2009 9:18 AM
Sub-Tropical Low Could be Named this Week
SUBTROPICAL STORM COULD HIT FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST WITH HEAVY RAINS THIS WEEK...

The system near Cuba this morning will move north and be along the Florida coast by Tuesday. With the high to the north and the system strengthening, the east coast of Florida from NASA space center north to Charleston, SC can expect at least gale force winds if not tropical storm force winds.
The issue becomes, will this system become a named system. My guess is yes, it will become a named system, but maybe not a true tropical system. NHC has the category of sub-tropical storm, which they can name. Below is the definition from the NHC site.. In any case, Florida and parts of the Southeast are going to go from very dry weather to very wet weather with some places having 4-8 inches of rain this week.
Subtropical Cyclone:
A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones.
The most common type is an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.
A second type of subtropical cyclone is a mesoscale low originating in or near a frontolyzing zone of horizontal wind shear, with radius of maximum sustained winds generally less than 30 miles. The entire circulation may initially have a diameter of less than 100 miles. These generally short-lived systems may be either cold core or warm core.

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/margusity/2009/5-17-2009_9-47-03_AM.gif

http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=Meteomadness&pgurl=/mtweb/content/Meteomadness/archives/2009/05/subtropical_low_could_be_named_this_week.asp

caonacl
05-18-2009, 07:01 PM
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200990_model.gif

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200990_model.html

A.T. Hagan
05-19-2009, 09:02 AM
NHC thinks it's going to be absorbed into the low over Florida and unlikely to develop further.

I will say our dry season came to an abrupt end this year. It has rained for the last four days now and looks likely to for the next several to come.

.....Alan.

flourbug
05-19-2009, 09:15 AM
franc, grab your umbrella, two of those paths are coming our way. It's been raining... and raining... and raining... which is good. We've had a drought. The grass is dead. All the lakes around here are down 3 - 4'. So send more rain. :p

caonacl
05-22-2009, 05:25 PM
see link

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200990_model.html

caonacl
05-22-2009, 10:31 PM
System in Gulf Could
Become Tropical

Updated: Friday, 22 May 2009, 9:21 PM CDT
Published : Friday, 22 May 2009, 8:01 PM CDT

http://media2.myfoxhouston.com//photo/2009/05/22/low_20090522212100_320_240.JPG
HOUSTON - A broad area of low pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico has a 30 to 50 percent chance of developing tropical characteristics by the time it makes landfall, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The National Hurricane Center said it has scheduled an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft to examine the area of low pressure in the Gulf, which developed earlier in the week.

Weather experts said satellite imagery indicated an increase of showers and thunderstorms related to this low pressure, and a tropical depression could form before the system moves inland over the norther Gulf Coast Saturday.

However, FOX 26 Meteorologist John Dawson said the Houston-area weather forecast isn't expected to change.

"We've been watching this system all week and knew it would be the main factor for the weekend's weather," Dawson said. "There is really not enough time for the forecast to change. We are still looking at a 50 to 60 percent chance of rain whether the Hurricane Center names this system or not."

Another update on this system is scheduled to be issued Saturday morning.

http://www.myfoxhouston.com/dpp/weather/090522_possible_tropical_system

A.T. Hagan
05-23-2009, 11:39 AM
It's late May. The season is about to start. This is all normal stuff.

If you live within two hundred miles of the Gulf or Southeastern Atlantic coasts then you would be well served to ALWAYS pay attention to the weather forecasts starting in May to the end of December. Actually the entire year, but most especially from the month before to the month after the season ends.

.....Alan.

jeanne
05-23-2009, 04:55 PM
well, i\ve just got to say that here in atlanta i've been enjoying the rain, clouds, breeze and rain from the feeder bands.

from here, it was a tropical storm.

i'm in bliss - swine flu and hurricane season. i'll never leave my computer.