PDA

View Full Version : Tropical storm possible in Atlantic: NHC


Renegade
08-10-2009, 08:33 AM
Mon Aug 10, 2009 8:16am EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A low pressure system southwest of the Cape Verde Islands could develop into the first tropical cyclone of the Atlantic hurricane season over the next two days, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said Monday.

Specifically, the NHC said the system could become a tropical depression during the next day or two as it moves west at 10 to 15 miles per hour. There was a "medium" chance - 30 to 50 percent - it could become a tropical storm during the next 48 hours.

The weather models, however, did not expect the system to threaten land over the next five days as it moves west-northwest over the Atlantic Ocean.

If the system develops into a tropical storm with winds of 39 to 73 mph, it would be named Ana, the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.

By this time last year, there were already five named storms in the Atlantic basin.

Energy traders watch for storms that could enter the Gulf of Mexico and threaten U.S. oil and natural gas platforms and refineries along the coast.

Commodities traders likewise watch storms that could hit agriculture crops like citrus and cotton in Florida and other states along the coast to Texas.

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by John Picinich)
http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE5791ZF20090810

A.T. Hagan
08-10-2009, 08:39 AM
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/two_atl.gif

Click the link above to get the mouse over for the orange area in the sat photo.

.....Alan.

A.T. Hagan
08-11-2009, 08:19 AM
We now have Tropical Depression #2 in the Atlantic.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL0209W5_NL_sm2+gif/100013W5_NL_sm.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/111000.shtml
000
WTNT32 KNHC 111000
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
600 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

...SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
FORMS...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER
THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

AT 600 AM AST...1000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.6 WEST OR ABOUT 280
MILES...455 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN A DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 600 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.4N 28.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=3194,21328260,3194_21169354:3194_2126 0388:3194_21260861&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_02

Renegade
08-11-2009, 09:50 AM
let the games begin...:cool:

Auburn Boy
08-11-2009, 03:39 PM
It's never too early to play the "Tropical Depression" game.

Renegade
08-12-2009, 08:00 AM
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200902_5day.gif

...Depression has not strengthened yet...

At 500 am AST...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 14.6 north...longitude 32.4 west or about 535
miles...860 km...west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.


The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph...19 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected for the next day or two with
some increase in forward speed.


Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. The depression could become a tropical storm during the next
couple of days.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.


...Summary of 500 am AST information...
location...14.6n 32.4w
maximum sustained winds...35 mph
present movement...west or 270 degrees at 12 mph
minimum central pressure...1006 mb


the next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 am AST.


$$
Forecaster Blake

penguinzee
08-12-2009, 08:30 AM
Shouldn't bother the US, but if I were in Bermuda, I'd be paying close attention...

Franc (penguinzee)

A.T. Hagan
08-12-2009, 02:03 PM
It appears that #3 is forming up right behind #2 now.

.....Alan.

ltow
08-12-2009, 07:57 PM
It is headed straight for NYC!
I saw it on the discovery channel!





oh wait - never mind - that was one of those worstest case scenarios shows . . .

Sysiphus
08-12-2009, 09:14 PM
It appears that #3 is forming up right behind #2 now.

Yes - the new Invest (called "Bill" by wags on the weather boards) is where the real action is. It may absorb TD 2.

DReynolds
08-14-2009, 01:25 PM
Yes - the new Invest (called "Bill" by wags on the weather boards) is where the real action is. It may absorb TD 2.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

DReynolds
08-14-2009, 01:42 PM
After looking at the satellite roll, I'd bet anyone here 1 virtual dollar that this system becomes a hurricane.

Sysiphus
08-14-2009, 04:57 PM
I think you are right DR. I've been watching the LPA since it was a cluster of thunderstorms over the Sudan and then inland Senegal. It does look like the real deal to me. I think it has enough energy and organization to prevent incursion of the dry Sahara air and survive any windshear.

DReynolds
08-14-2009, 09:02 PM
Wide-view IR loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

Renegade
08-15-2009, 07:08 AM
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200902_5day.gif

penguinzee
08-15-2009, 09:24 AM
Was reading the NHC report about Ana this AM... seems the models, while agreeing on the general direction of Ana, disagree wildly on the intensity forecasts-the GFDL has it dissapating, while the HWRF model has it a Cat2 hurricane in 5 days (and both are pretty decent models).

Gonna have to look for a sea-surface temperatures map, to see if there's any eddies in Ana's path-there's a lot of potential energy here for her to tap, whether she'll get to it is another queston.

This one bears watching now...

Franc (penguinzee)

A.T. Hagan
08-15-2009, 09:26 AM
Well, there's Ana and looks like Bill soon to be right behind. Welcome to the hurricane season.

Edited to add: In the time between when I first checked this morning till right now the third area of interest has now become Tropical Depression #3. Won't be long before it becomes Bill I suspect.

.....Alan.

DReynolds
08-15-2009, 10:57 AM
the third area of interest has now become Tropical Depression #3. Won't be long before it becomes Bill I suspect.

Looks like it could be a monster storm, possibly headed towards Florida but not for a few days.

flourbug
08-15-2009, 11:02 AM
I don't like the way it keeps heading south... Ana better not hit the Gulf.

DReynolds
08-15-2009, 11:27 AM
I don't like the way it keeps heading south... Ana better not hit the Gulf.
Houston does not need another hurricane this year. There are still some places in Houston where you can still see tell-tale blue tarps on rooftops from Ike.

But right now Id be worried about Bill.

penguinzee
08-15-2009, 11:34 AM
Well, for now I'm going to worry about Ana, since she's the customer at the front of the line...

Dug up a sst map, and overlaid Ana's spaghetti paths over it-looks like if she can avoid Hispanola, she'll have a clean shot at south FLA, with warmer water to work with than she has now-not sure obviously, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a Cat 2 off Ft. Lauderdale next Friday...

Auburn Boy
08-15-2009, 02:01 PM
I found a neat Hurricane site over at Mike Coston's "Avian Flu Diary."

Hadn't seeen this one before.

http://www.snowbirdnationals.com/weather.htm

This pulls together many nice tracking features on one control pannel type page...,

I hope the LPA at the tip of Florida peters out and doesn't head north. It looks like a strong one though..,

A.T. Hagan
08-15-2009, 06:10 PM
Tropical Storm Bill
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_03.gif

.....Alan.

DReynolds
08-15-2009, 07:03 PM
SHIPS intensity model now forecasts TS Bill will be a Cat1 hurricane in a couple days, and a Cat2 by Tues/Wed.

And it's gigantic .

Renegade
08-15-2009, 08:31 PM
this loop has historically been fairly accurate pretty far out (at least as much as I've watched it over the last couple of years)...but who knows how accurate it'll be on the canes...

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_sfc_prcp&loop=1

Auburn Boy
08-15-2009, 09:50 PM
SHIPS intensity model now forecasts TS Bill will be a Cat1 hurricane in a couple days, and a Cat2 by Tues/Wed.

And it's gigantic .

The "Wave Height" model I looked at showed it was going to be a monster.

A.T. Hagan
08-15-2009, 10:28 PM
We may get lucky with Bill and he'll turn out to be a fish storm. But if I were in Georgia or the Carolinas I'd be paying close attention to him just now...

.....Alan.

DReynolds
08-16-2009, 11:51 AM
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/161441.shtml

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND BILL
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

DReynolds
08-18-2009, 12:18 PM
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/181449.shtml

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND BILL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED
TO INVESTIGATE BILL THIS AFTERNOON.

VT9
08-18-2009, 12:28 PM
We may get lucky with Bill and he'll turn out to be a fish storm.

Can you elaborate on what a fish storm is for this landlocked yankee?

A.T. Hagan
08-18-2009, 12:37 PM
One that never makes landfall.

.....Alan.

DReynolds
08-19-2009, 10:18 AM
...BILL STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.9 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES...
740 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...
AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THIS DANGEROUS
HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE BILL.

ltow
08-19-2009, 11:21 PM
Bill is headed straight for Canada.
That is almost NYC.

CanadaSue
08-19-2009, 11:37 PM
Depending on the exact track, he's looking likely to slam the Fundy shore which has some pretty sporty tides to begin with. If he slides further east he'll brush by Halifax Harbour. Potentially could make Juan look like a minor blow.

I'm hoping that so far north with much colder, 9generally), waters will mellow him out a tad.

Gonna be an anxious few days up there.

CanadaSue
08-19-2009, 11:40 PM
Yeah, heat wise, Bill 'run out of fuel' just shy of the east coast states but should still have plenty of gas in the tank by then.

Canadian Hurricane Center is patching in the NHC tracks & forecasts - not issuing their own just yet.

stars01
08-20-2009, 12:10 PM
I was just watching the track of Bill. A little change to the west and we'll have a problem here although it doesn't seem that way.

I can only hope no one gets it. It's slightly sickening to see something like that coming at you.


paula

CanadaSue
08-20-2009, 12:26 PM
Slightly? I'd be freaked.

All gonna depend on when he makes that north turn. Obviously, the sooner the better - once he gets well clear of Bermuda.

A.T. Hagan
08-20-2009, 12:34 PM
The Gulf and Southeastern Atlantic states are tired of being battered by hurricanes. We're sending them north now.

.....Alan.

Renegade
08-20-2009, 12:37 PM
The Gulf and Southeastern Atlantic states are tired of being battered by hurricanes. We're sending them north now.

.....Alan.
works for me!

stars01
08-20-2009, 12:43 PM
ack.....my neighbors are getting a new roof today. that almost insures we get it.



paula

ltow
08-20-2009, 10:24 PM
buy flood insurance now

stars01
08-22-2009, 03:13 PM
Well, it still hasn't turned yet. That's a good size hurricane coming at us.



paula