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Old Hawk
09-30-2009, 01:49 PM
By Gerard Wynn Gerard Wynn Wed Sep 30, 9:12 am ET

OXFORD, England (Reuters) – A rise of at least two meters in the world's sea levels is now almost unstoppable, experts told a climate conference at Oxford University on Tuesday.
"The crux of the sea level issue is that it starts very slowly but once it gets going it is practically unstoppable," said Stefan Rahmstorf, a scientist at Germany's Potsdam Institute and a widely recognized sea level expert.
"There is no way I can see to stop this rise, even if we have gone to zero emissions."
Rahmstorf said the best outcome was that after temperatures stabilized, sea levels would only rise at a steady rate "for centuries to come," and not accelerate.
Most scientists expect at least 2 degrees Celsius warming as a result of man-made greenhouse gas emissions, and probably more. The world warmed 0.7-0.8 degrees last century.
Rahmstorf estimated that if the world limited warming to 1.5 degrees then it would still see two meters sea level rise over centuries, which would see some island nations disappear.
His best guess was a one meter rise this century, assuming three degrees warming, and up to five meters over the next 300 years.
"There is nothing we can do to stop this unless we manage to cool the planet. That would require extracting the carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. There is no way of doing this on the sufficient scale known today," he said.
Scientists say that ice melt acquires a momentum of its own - for example warming the air as less ice reflects less heat, warming the local area.
"Once the ice is on the move, it's like a tipping point which reinforces itself," said Wageningen University's Pier Vellinga, citing various research.
"Even if you reduce all the emissions in the world once this has started it may be unstoppable. I conclude that beyond 2 degrees global average temperature rise the probability of the Greenland ice sheet disintegrating is 50 percent or more."
"(That) will result in about 7 meters sea level rise, and the time frame is about 300-1,000 years."
STORM
Delegates from about 190 nations are meeting in Bangkok to try to speed up U.N.-led negotiations to replace the Kyoto Protocol with a tougher climate pact.
Speakers in Oxford used history to back up their arguments on rising seas. Three million years ago the planet was 2-3 degrees warmer and the sea 25-35 meters higher, and 122,000 years ago 2 degrees warmer and 10 meters higher, they said.
"What we now see in Greenland, Antarctica could be a temporary phenomena but it could also be the start of what we saw 122,000 years ago," said Vellinga.
Sea levels have risen about 20 centimeters in the past century and that effect was accelerating, speakers said.
That rise was adding to storms such as that in the Philippines, although that single event couldn't be attributed to climate change, said Rahmstorf.
"Of course the flooding from a given storm event would be less severe if we hadn't added those extra centimeters."
About 40 million people worldwide live in flood plains, said Southampton University's Robert Nicholls. That is 0.6 percent of the global population and 5 percent of global wealth, because of valuable assets such as airports and power plants.
He was confident that coastal protection could hugely reduce lost land and assets. The cost of that speakers put at anywhere from 50 billion euros ($72.85 billion) a year by 2020 to up to $215 billion a year by 2100.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090930/sc_nm/us_climate_seas_2

OH

caonacl
09-30-2009, 08:55 PM
see:

http://thisbluemarble.com/showthread.php?p=153665#post153665

Ought Six
10-01-2009, 03:03 AM
100 meter high tsunami of AGW bullsh1t is unstoppable....

Old Hawk
10-01-2009, 11:53 AM
100 meter high tsunami of AGW bullsh1t is unstoppable....

Having a rough morning Ought?

OH

Exodia
10-01-2009, 12:31 PM
Speakers in Oxford used history to back up their arguments on rising seas. Three million years ago the planet was 2-3 degrees warmer and the sea 25-35 meters higher, and 122,000 years ago 2 degrees warmer and 10 meters higher, they said.
"What we now see in Greenland, Antarctica could be a temporary phenomena but it could also be the start of what we saw 122,000 years ago," said Vellinga.
I hope the nations that were responsible for this in the past were punished.

Old Hawk
10-01-2009, 01:27 PM
I hope the nations that were responsible for this in the past were punished.

They certainly were! Climate changes drove them to extinction.:D

Actually this idea has been proposed. The article below gives pro and con arguments.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/science/08/18/ancient.global.warming/index.html

Ancient man may have started global warming through massive deforestation and burning that could have permanently altered the Earth's climate, according to a new study by researchers at the University of Virginia and the University of Maryland-Baltimore County.

Lead study author William Ruddiman is a professor emeritus of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia and a climate scientist.
"It seems like a common-sense idea that there weren't enough people around 5, 6, 7,000 years ago to have any significant impact on climate. But if you allow for the fact that those people, person by person, had something like 10 times as much of an effect or cleared 10 times as much land as people do today on average, that bumps up the effect of those earlier farmers considerably, and it does make them a factor in contributing to the rise of greenhouse gasses," Ruddiman said.
Ruddiman said that starting thousands of years ago, people would burn down a forest, poke a hole in the soil between the stumps, drop seeds in the holes and grow a crop on that land until the nutrients were tapped out of the soil. Then they would move on.
"And they'd burn down another patch of forest and another and another. They might do that five times in a 20-year period," he said.

That slashing and burning on such a large scale spewed enormous amounts of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere and warmed the planet, the study says.
Ruddiman has studied and researched the idea of ancient man contributing to climate change for years now. And he's endured plenty of criticism over his theories.
Ken Caldeira, a climate scientist at the Carnegie Institution's Department of Global Ecology in Stanford, California, is among those who disagree with Ruddiman. He said Ruddiman is "exaggerating the importance of early man."
Caldeira told CNN that while ancient farmers may have played a tiny role in climate change, "it just wasn't a significant factor."
He added, "There are actually studies showing if you cut down forests for farmland, you actually cool the planet, because of the glare from the cleared land."
Ruddiman and study co-author Erle Ellis, an ecologist with UMBC, acknowledge that some models of past land use show it's only been in the past 150 years -- with a huge population explosion, the onset of the Industrial Age and the rise of fossil-fuel burning -- that global warming has accelerated.
But Ruddiman said, "My argument is that even at the beginning, they just used much more land per person, so even though there weren't that many people, they used enough to start to push these greenhouse gas concentrations up."
Ruddiman's research also argues that the Earth was on its way to another ice age 10,000 years ago and that ice sheets were already forming in northern latitudes when ancient man started his slashing and burning method of farming.

OH

Oric
10-01-2009, 03:11 PM
what is the average height of midwest states from sea level ?

Samen
10-01-2009, 03:18 PM
Bumer, I'm only 1.82 meters tall.

flourbug
10-01-2009, 03:20 PM
Most of Florida is close to sea level. My house is 18' above, but I am on a lake that is only about 3' below the foundation of my house. Heck, dig a hole even a foot deep and you hit water.

Ought Six
10-01-2009, 04:32 PM
It often makes me wonder how they bury caskets in Florida.

Old Hawk
10-01-2009, 04:39 PM
FB, you live on a sandbar. :)

Sea levels do change substantually but over very long periods of time. This would happen if there were no humans in the world. 2 meters would greatly change the maps and the greatest population concentrations of the world would be moved. But, there would be plenty of time to adjust, generations at least.

Untempered population expansion is a much more immediate concern.

OH

Old Hawk
10-01-2009, 04:44 PM
It often makes me wonder how they bury caskets in Florida.

In coastal Louisiana they don't bury the caskets. They can't, the coffins would float to the surface.

There must be many places in the world like this.

OH

Old Hawk
10-01-2009, 04:49 PM
what is the average height of midwest states from sea level ?

Right here we are about 350 ft elevation, 106 meters. Samen can swim over here.:)

OH

Ought Six
10-01-2009, 06:15 PM
The above-ground crypts in New Orleans are pretty famous, but you do not hear about that practice being used in Florida. That is why I was wondering what they do there. Maybe every low hill in the state is a graveyard.

flourbug
10-01-2009, 06:19 PM
06, our water table is so high we don't have basements. There are some graveyards, even close to the Gulf. Only really old ones have headstones. Most just have flat markers, and just about all of them have mausoleums. But to be honest I don't know anyone who is buried down here. It's all cremation.

rryan
10-02-2009, 08:25 AM
I am at 4500' and there are belimnites and other fossils everywhere---this place was underwater at one time.

Ross
10-02-2009, 09:39 AM
Bumer, I'm only 1.82 meters tall.

Do not worry the sharks will probably get you before 1.8 m .

Ought Six
10-02-2009, 01:55 PM
rr:"I am at 4500' and there are belimnites and other fossils everywhere---this place was underwater at one time."Sea levels were never that high. What you see is the result of geological uplift.

rryan
10-02-2009, 02:05 PM
rr:Sea levels were never that high. What you see is the result of geological uplift.

I know :D----it just get a laugh out of the alarmists who think the world is changing for the first time.

Sarrah
10-02-2009, 04:00 PM
The mother earth often sings this song I am sure.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZbKHDPPrrc

RobT20
10-02-2009, 04:01 PM
I know :D----it just get a laugh out of the alarmists who think the world is changing for the first time.
So, you were trying to get a (> 2M) "rise" out of them ?

Ought Six
10-02-2009, 04:47 PM
:rimshot:

Christy
10-03-2009, 03:59 AM
The very first characteristic in my search for a retreat was how elevated it was. Seen beautiful pieces of land, houses within pricerange but all either on low ground or near a river and/or floodarea.

Spend a lot of time on firetree flood website and asking local authorities about history.

Recommended reading is about the island of Tuvalu. They are feeling first hand how mush the sealevel is rising already.
Manmade or natural cycles, wet feet is wet feet.

http://www.islandvulnerability.org/tuvalu.html

RobT20
10-03-2009, 12:07 PM
:rimshot:
OK, kinda lame, I know. I just couldn't resist.

I was just practicing my Dave Letterman impersonation.

Amberglass
10-03-2009, 12:50 PM
K, thanks Sarrah, I'm going to be singing that for days.:lol:

Ought Six
10-03-2009, 06:59 PM
R20:"I was just practicing my Dave Letterman impersonation."Then watch out for blackmailers, and lay off (instead of on) the female staffers.

:rimshot: