SC group to discuss worst case flu scenario

[Arubi]

Oct. 05, 2008
SC group to discuss worst case flu scenario

Scientists from across South Carolina plan to meet this week in Columbia to discuss how they would handle a massive outbreak of the flu.

The Post and Courier of Charleston reports that the South Carolina Pandemic Influenza Task Force will discuss what to do if a never-before-seen strain of flu hits.

In the worst scenario, such a flu strain could kill up to 25,000 South Carolinians, overwhelming hospitals and closing businesses.

The group also plans to discuss tough questions like who should get the first vaccines against a new strain of flu and who should be treated first as the illness spreads.
http://www.thestate.com/statewire/story/545364.html

[Arubi]

Ethics of catastrophe, pandemic flu will strain resources
By Jill Coley (Contact)
The Post and Courier
Friday, October 3, 2008



Scientists from around the world meet every February to study the hundreds of influenza strains percolating around the globe. They predict the top three for each hemisphere and kick-start the six-month manufacturing process.

They are usually right, but not always. Last year, three out of five seasonal flu cases reported were caused by strains not included in 2007-08 vaccine.

This year's seasonal flu will bring its fair share of illness and an estimated 500 deaths statewide. But what if an entirely new virus hits, one never seen before?

Dr. Robert Ball, an epidemiologist with the S.C. Department of Health and Environmental Control said, "That's why this virus scares me. It has the ability to mutate in the blink of an eye."

A worst-case scenario could kill up to 25,000 South Carolinians. The sick would overwhelm hospitals, absenteeism would close businesses and food supplies would slow.

Ball is among those mobilizing the South Carolina Pandemic Influenza Task Force that will meet Tuesday in Columbia to answer some tough questions. Who will get the last ventilator? Who will get the first vaccines?

http://www.charleston.net/news/2008/oct/03/ethics_catastrophe_pandemic_flu_will_str56705/

South Carolina Pandemic Influenza Task Force guidelineshttp://74.125.45.104/search?q=cache:gb6EvqrlJ6kJ:horrycounty.redcross.o rg/panflu/PICOOP_Guide.doc+South+Carolina+Pandemic+Influenza +Task+Force&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=5&gl=us&ie=UTF-8

[Exodia]

A worst-case scenario could kill up to 25,000 South Carolinians. The sick would overwhelm hospitals, absenteeism would close businesses and food supplies would slow.

The 2006 population of South Carolina was roughly 4,300,000. The 25,000 deaths they cite works out to a 0.58% CFR. That's a long way from a "worst case senario" if you ask me.

[Kassy]

The 2006 population of South Carolina was roughly 4,300,000. The 25,000 deaths they cite works out to a 0.58% CFR. That's a long way from a "worst case senario" if you ask me.

You divided death by population which gives you a percentage of dead people in the total population which is not the CFR which is total dead/total of sick people.

If we assume an attack rate of 10% for the WCS it would be 430.000 sick people. 5,8% CFR.

CFR will probably be lower because they probably used a higher attack right. Probably around 30%.

BTW: In the Netherlands 0.4% of the population died in the 1918 pandemic.