PO and a Mini Ice Age .

[Ross]

Investing during Peak Oil and a Mini-ice-age .

There are good reasons for fearing we may be headed for a new mini-ice
age .

Shown below is an overlay of current solar activity on the last mini-ice
age period , the Dalton minimum . ( We are in solar cycle 24 )

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/dalton_fig9.png?w=640&h=408

For those interested in doing further reading good summaries can be found
at ....
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/20/a-dalton-minimum-repeat-is-shaping-up/

with similar supporting documentation at
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/23/solar-geomagnetic-ap-index-hits-zero/

How will you survive this period financially ?

Some things instantly stand out , like investing in energy , but others are much less obvious .

For example , without an Ice age one might reasonably assume that assets requiring a lot
of oil to construct would appreciate in value due to their increased replacement value .

However some of those assets may not appreciate or even hold their value during a
simultaneous Ice Age . There are many areas where this effect may be manifest .

Example .... Infrastructure at higher latitudes ( populations will/may migrate )


As time progresses ( say 10 years ) populations are likely to decline so
all the old verities may become unreliable . Will mined commodities like
copper , steel that are energy intensive still retain their value in a world
with fewer humans and having much less disposable income ?

I am hoping this thread may become a vehicle for identifying
reasonably safe investments .

[Ross]

If there is a new Dalton minimum unfolding how cold will it become ?
Contrary to my first impressions maybe not very cold if the following extract is accurate .
http://ncwatch.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/2008/08/31/dalton_90_30.jpg

Extract ....

Doing a little more research I found this paper published in the History of Meteorology.

Reconstruction of Late 18th Century Upper-air Circulation, Using Forensic Synoptic Analysis, Louis K. McNally, III

... the early 1780s in eastern Massachusetts, in general, exhibit shorter growing seasons, more winter days with fair-sky conditions, more summer days with thunderstorms, and more winter snowfall days than the remainder of the decade. Both shorter growing seasons and more winter days with fair-sky conditions indicate a prevalence of clearer Arctic or polar air masses in both summer and winter.

... in reconstruction of temperatures for Toronto, Ontario, Canada, found . . . 1783-1785 are all within 1° of the 50-year running mean.

... Tree ring chronologies for the western part of North America developed by Lough (1992)
show no large deviation from a long-term (1602-1960) mean.

... Ogilvie (1992) studied sea ice records for the area around Iceland and shows that on a
decadal scale the 1780s contained the greatest amount of sea ice on record. The series extends back to 1501.

... In the western United States, Fritts and Shao (1992) reconstructed temperature and
precipitation from a variety of spatial arrays of sites. These areas included the Columbia Basin, the California valleys, intermountain basins, southwest deserts, the northern high plains and the southern high plains. Throughout the entire area, temperature and precipitation data for the period from 1750 to 1800 show very little variation from the norm, with the exception of the temperature reconstruction for the high plains data set. There is a colder than normal period which stretches from 1770-1790 and it is found only in the high plains data set.


Information source ...
http://ncwatch.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/2008/08/31/dalton_90_30.jpg

[flourbug]

http://joelmp98.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/washington-crossing-the-delaware.jpg

The US Revolution was fought during the Dalton Minimum. This picture of George Washington crossing the Delaware River on Christmas Day 1776 looks like he was carving a new passage through the Arctic. Normally the Delaware - a wide river with a very strong current - does not freeze anywhere near Trenton. In fact, most years NJ doesn't even get snow until a few days before Christmas. A few miles north of the Delaware Crossing, in Morristown, Revolutionary soldiers froze to death in their bunks in uninsulated troop huts.

It was VERY cold in New England in the 1780's.

[Ross]

How cold will it become if a new Dalton minimum is unfolding ?


http://exit78.com/wp-content/uploads//2009/12/image11.png


An excellent but rather long article which contains temperature implications for the USA
can be found at .....
http://www.warwickhughes.com/agri/Solar_Arch_NY_Mar2_08.pdf


It can get worse than a repeat of the Dalton Minimum. Ken Schatten is the solar physicist with the best track record in predicting solar cycles. His work suggests a return to the advancing glaciers and delayed spring snow melt of the Little Ice Age, for an indeterminate period.

[Ross]

Thanks FB ... extremely interesting at all levels .

[flourbug]

We're not living in candle lit wooden houses, and traveling by foot or horseback. We have homes with central heat, and cars. The only thing a mini ice age will effect is agriculture, and honestly... I think it's going to be BETTER than it is now.

If you took a piece of tracing paper and laid it over the US, and colored the prime farmland with marker, you could pick up the paper and move it down one or two states, to farmland that is even richer. The crop will come in, just at a different time. If this is worldwide, at MOST, I'd expect us to go back to having certain foods unavailable when not in season locally. But big deal. It was that way when I was a kid.

[Ross]

We're not living in candle lit wooden houses, and traveling by foot or horseback. We have homes with central heat, and cars. The only thing a mini ice age will effect is agriculture, and honestly... I think it's going to be BETTER than it is now.

I am not so sure about that .

Some examples ....

# I look at the roof of my house and wonder if it can handle snow .
Probably not . How many millions of other home owners will have to
make modifications or change . And that is only home owners what about
all those commercial factories designed for warm climates .

# In PO batteries are likely to take a bigger role but they perform dreadfully in
cold climates. Meaning one of the most important alternatives to oil will be
unavailable to many . It is a similar story with solar heating and solar power .

# To move agricultural production several hundred miles closer to the equator
involves massive expense . There needs to be new infrastructure for water supply ,
new agricultural produce storage facilities , changes in transportation infrastructure etc .
However before that happens food prices are likely to soar due to shortages .

# Many industries are reliant on temperatures staying within current predictable ranges .
Great expense will be involved in either moving or modify to accommodate change .

# Many governments will be involved in a vast new array of expenses.
Example ... I live in Melbourne Australia and I doubt if there is a snowplough or
any snow moving device for for several hundred miles .

( Note ...I have not yet tried to workout what climate Melbourne
may have and whether there will be significant snow )


.

[Ought Six]

If the Earth is heading into a significantly colder period, the tundra is going to start moving down into Canada's wheat belt.

[flourbug]

Ross, I spent the first 44 years of my life in the northeast, where winter temps bottomed out at -5 to -10F and most years we had enough snow between October and May to cancel school the 5 days that were allotted by the school board for inclement weather - and frequently a few more. Last frost date was June 15, and most of our veggies were harvested in early September, then ripened indoors. In other words, it is ALREADY cold there. Dropping another 15 degrees will not have a big effect.

I know because during the last mini ice age, I was hauling off to high school and college, got married, went to work every day... in temps colder than we have now, in a very cold region of the country, and we ALSO had a "gas crisis" in the winter of 1973, where gasoline and home heating oil were so scarce the President came on tv in a heavy sweater to urge us to turn our already low thermostats down, and we could only buy enough gas to drive to work every other day.

I feel like Grandpa saying, "Why in MY day, we walked ten miles to school barefoot, in a blizzard, all uphill!" Truth is, the mini ice age and gas crisis of the 1970s was taken in stride. It was cold, but it is cold every winter. We had a lot of snow, but we had shovels and knew how to use them. We had to turn the thermostat down but our homes were frigid and drafty anyway. It was 54F whether you set the thermostat at 54F or 90F. Instead of one bad winter, we had a string of them. Then we had a string of winters where it barely snowed at all and temps were warmer. We didn't sweat that, either.


# I look at the roof of my house and wonder if it can handle snow .
Probably not . How many millions of other home owners will have to
make modifications or change . And that is only home owners what about
all those commercial factories designed for warm climates .

1) There is a snow "belt" because conditions have to be right. Above a certain temperature it is rain, and below a certain temperature it just does not snow as much. As the snow belt moves south, the people north of that line will have increased cold but decreased snowfall (but that which does fall will stay, possibly year round, and become compacted - if the ice age lasts long enough this is how glaciers form).

2) Looking out my back window I don't see a single house that could not withstand a snowstorm - because they have been built to withstand hurricanes. We have codes requiring a home to withstand 135 mph winds and heavy slashing rain, and have insulation in the walls and ceilings.

Up north (the Rt 95 corridor which was just hit with the severe storm) the majority of houses were built between the victorian era and 1950's - when they simply ran out of land in the urban areas. While a house, or even a development, went up here and there they were a small fraction of the millions of existing homes. Those existing homes may be able to handle a high snow load, but they cannot cope with cold - they were built in an era of cheap heat, which means they have virtually no insulation. Over the years people added what they could, where they could, but it is not like incorporating insulation and tyvek wind protection into new construction.

The extreme South wasn't populated until after the invention of home air conditioning. While we have an abundance of mobile homes and trailers, they have very limited lifespans and will have to be replaced, ice age or not. The rest of the homes here are built to higher standards than northern homes - in fact the first floor of every house is concrete block, not wood.

Factories and malls in both areas almost always have flat tar paper roofs, which is why you hear of so many collapsing under a heavy snow load.

The only issue we've had during the hard freezes of the past few weeks is frozen pipes... outdoor faucets and underground sprinklers crack and leak because they were not built to withstand prolonged freezes.

# In PO batteries are likely to take a bigger role but they perform dreadfully in
cold climates. Meaning one of the most important alternatives to oil will be
unavailable to many . It is a similar story with solar heating and solar power .

PO combined with a mini ice age will be a disaster. It will be a disaster without a mini ice age.


# To move agricultural production several hundred miles closer to the equator
involves massive expense . There needs to be new infrastructure for water supply ,
new agricultural produce storage facilities , changes in transportation infrastructure etc .
However before that happens food prices are likely to soar due to shortages .

You assume new ground will have to be cleared and plowed and improvements put in before it can support a wheat crop. I see hundreds of thousands of acres of tobacco and other crops that will no longer grow well, becoming fertile ground for wheat and corn. Huge sections of the US are prairie, where livestock have grazed for millenia (bison and now cattle). The ground is rich black loam - but there isn't enough rain to support crops, so it is used for livestock. If that snow/rain belt is moved lower so there is more water going into that ground, you open vast areas to agriculture.

# Many industries are reliant on temperatures staying within current predictable ranges .
Great expense will be involved in either moving or modify to accommodate change .

The tourist industry may take a hit - the bad economy has put it on life support. I guess we're all going to have to learn to love to ski.

# Many governments will be involved in a vast new array of expenses.
Example ... I live in Melbourne Australia and I doubt if there is a snowplough or
any snow moving device for for several hundred miles .

Not much around Tampa, FL either.

I don't see an ice age descending upon us like Day After Tomorrow. I think we'll have a decade or two to adapt to increasing cold and changes in precipitation.

( Note ...I have not yet tried to workout what climate Melbourne
may have and whether there will be significant snow )

I am far more worried about other areas of the globe than the US. The Caribbean, Mexico, South America, India, parts of SE Asia can be in dire trouble if global temperatures drop significantly. People who live in cardboard shacks and depend on locally grown rice to sustain them, are not going to be able to cope with heavy snow loads.

[Sonny]

added for reference.

The Dalton Minimum was a period of low solar activity, named after the English meteorologist John Dalton, lasting from about 1790 to 1830.[1] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dalton_Minimum#cite_note-0)

Like the Maunder Minimum (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum) and Spörer Minimum (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sp%C3%B6rer_Minimum), the Dalton Minimum coincided with a period of lower-than-average global temperatures. The Oberlach Station in Germany, for example, experienced a 2.0°C decline over 20 years.[2] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dalton_Minimum#cite_note-1)
The Year Without a Summer (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer), in 1816, also occurred during the Dalton Minimum.
The precise cause of the lower-than-average temperatures during this period is not well understood. Recent papers have suggested that a rise in volcanism was largely responsible for the cooling trend.[3] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dalton_Minimum#cite_note-2)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dalton_Minimum

http://thisbluemarble.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=2747&stc=1&d=1294070962

[Kassy]

The effect of that ice age was less then the total effects of global warming around here translated into forcings. No way to know how it works out in the local climate and even harder to translate into possible investments.

Anyway , solar minima come and go over a couple of centuries while the CO2 concentrations keep changing the game.

As how any of this translates into investments, i don't know.

If we do get it it'll push up oil prices and then we'll see how nations will stand up to this.

Imagine we have a really , really long and cold winter. Oil prices would go up steeply, this would be included in inflation and some should go into COLA. Then there are all those already at the edge.

I'm skeptical you can quantum ease out of a squeeze like that.

Maybe 'Guns & Barb wire' isn't that bad an investment advice. All the rest is guessing (with a nice doomer touch... imagine the paperwork needed to shift the food production. :beer: ).

[Ought Six]

K:"The effect of that ice age was less then the total effects of global warming around here translated into forcings."I love the way you make utterly baseless declarations like this as if they were simply 'fact'. :lol:

[hillsidedigger]

Maybe, some of you will tell us when the year comes when the Arctic Ocean icecap and Greenland do not have a net-melt

or when the mid-latitudes of the hemispheres don't have unusually hot Summers.

[Ought Six]

So long as Chinese coal-burning plants are pumping out massive quantities of soot, I would expect increased melting in the Arctic, but not the Antarctic every year, which is just what we are seeing. So far as the unusually hot summers, I suppose if you pretend the unusually cold winters do not exist, you can then pretend we have global warming. Or, you could simply acknowledge the fact that we are coming out of an unusually mild, stable climatic period back into the normal, more extreme weather the Earth has experienced for most of the last several millenia, according to written records.

[Ross]

This estimate suggests Solar Cycle 24 will cause USA agricultural
productivity to decline 20%


http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/ii27/BJH431/Hardinesszonesmap2006usav1.jpg




Information source ....By virtue of a lack of Solar Cycle 23 sunspots, solar minimum of the Solar Cycle 23 to 24 transition appears to have been in late 2008. This makes Solar Cycle 23 three years long than its predecessor. Consequently, using the 0.7° C per year of solar cycle length relationship, there will be a 2.1º C decline in temperature of the mid-latitudes next decade during Solar Cycle 24. Using the calibration provided by the climate shift caused by the

Solar Cycle 20 to 22 change in solar cycle length, the following shifts in climatic zones, and thus growing conditions, are estimated:

30° N 160 km southward shift
35° N 300 km southward shift
40° N 420 km southward shift

Assuming that two thirds of the productivity increase in mid-western states from 1990 to 2004 was climatically driven, then the productivity decline in this region due to Solar Cycle 24 is expected to be of the order of 30%. The total US agricultural productivity decrease would be less than that at possibly 20%
http://www.davidarchibald.info/papers/QuantifyingAgProductivityResponseSolarCycle%2024.p df
Note : My short extract cannot encapsulate the full article . I suggest you read it in full .

[Ross]

Australian Plant Hardiness zones as they stand in 2010 .

http://www.anbg.gov.au/gardens/research/hort.research/zones-map.gif


http://www.mygardenpal.com.au/help/gardenpalDesktop/WebHelp/1-Adding_a_New_Plant_files/image041.jpg

Current Australian wheat belt .
http://www.abare.gov.au/interactive/09acr_sept/images/graphs/GrowingRegions.jpg

http://www.abare.gov.au/interactive/09acr_sept/

[Ross]

Canada ... chart shows the effect of a 1 deg C drop ( another Dalton minimum
would prolly be more like 2.5 deg ( roughly )

http://www.icsu-scope.org/downloadpubs/scope27/images/fig14.5.gif




Effect of ( of only ) 1 °C cooling on wheat limit in Canada.

A similar, though unpublished, study in the Environmental Systems Branch of
Environment Canada gave more attention to changes in the probability of ripening
(Winstanley, 1974, personal communication).
The study concluded that a decrease in mean annual temperature of 1 °C would
reduce the frost-free period in southern Canada by about 10 days but, by decreasing mean annual
degree day totals by 46 percent, would increase the time needed for ripening
by 46 days. This change would effectively reduce the frost-free period by
about 15 days, thus increasing the probability of frost kill before crop
maturity. Although slightly lower temperatures would tend to reduce moisture
stress in some areas and thereby increase average yields, a shorter growing
period would reduce the already small margin between maturity and first fall
frost, and thus greatly increase the risk of total crop failure.

http://www.icsu-scope.org/downloadpubs/scope27/chapter14.html

[Abbott]

The discussion is very helpful for an investor who is thinking to invest his capital int he oil sector. In my personal opinion nobody can be in losses if he gets involved in the oil business unless he is insane or something.

[BuilderBob]

Wind farms may prove to be a negative investment.

http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm/6310/Britains-Wind-Farms-are-No-Spin-Zones-When-Cold-Hits

Britain’s Wind Farms are ‘No Spin Zones’ When Cold Hits

I have recently learned that when temperatures drop below freezing and there is no wind the turbines have to be electrically driven to prevent the gearboxes freezing up. This is another demand on a scarce resource during peak periods. (40% of UK coal fueled generating stations must be closed by 2015. EU requirement.)

[Ross]

There is another interesting article by Archibald on the likely
cold decades ahead to be found at ....
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/12/potential-agricultural-impact-of-the-eddy-minimum/#more-39776

Definitely worth reading wherever you live .

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/eddy-ag2.png

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/eddy-ag3.png?w=640&h=428

[lilly]

The seasons seem to be lagging about 2 or 3 weeks behind. Cold today and yesterday and it is almost June. Last fall it seemed like October into November, and then the winter was brutal and freezing just as the summer had been brutally hot mid summer.

Loads of freezing rain. My yard was more than a foot deep in ice. I used a sharp tipped cane to make sure I didn't slip and fall on my ass most of the winter.

[penguinzee]

We actually had a cold front (and some nasty storms) move through yesterday in Florida... very unusual... and there's another one forecast for Tuesday-Wednesday that will put the morning temps in the low 60s in our neck of the woods... again, very unusual for this time of year...

Franc (penguinzee)

[lilly]

We are having a week of thunderstorms and torrential rains. And I mean torrents of rain. All week long. It's going to be a dreary May.

Went to a library in town and sat in a chair. It was sopping wet. I didn't see any leak in their ceiling, though someone may have moved it from another spot. A new library shouldn't have a leaky roof. Either that or someone really has a problem with their kidneys. I mean a lot of water, a lot.

Lucky I had a change of clothes in the car, because the seat was soaking wet as well as the floor directly under it. They stuck a bucket there, and no one can figure out what was what. Don't see a problem in the ceiling.I'm going to wash those jeans just in case it isn't rain water.

[Ross]

MAJOR DROP IN SOLAR ACTIVITY PREDICTED --- National Solar Observatory

"We are NOT predicting a mini-ice age. We are predicting the behavior of the solar cycle.
In my opinion, it is a huge leap from that to an abrupt global cooling, since the connections
between solar activity and climate are still very poorly understood. My understanding is that
current calculations suggest only a 0.3 degree C decrease from a Maunder-like minimum,
too small for an ice age. It is unfortunate that the global warming/cooling studies have
become so politically polarizing."

My comments on the above

# Many organizations appear to discount the effect of sunspots on
cloud formation . It is unclear if he has made adequate compensation
for that effect in this calculations ( and /or other variables ) ??

# The oceans contain a lot of heat and will delay the onset of
any cooling effect.

The full article can be found at ...
http://www.nso.edu/press/SolarActivityDrop.html


Please note he is talking about a "Maunder-like minimum" not a Dalton minimum .
There was a substantial difference between the severity and duration of both events .
It is unclear if he used the word "Maunder" with clear intent to distinguish it from
a "Dalton" like minimum or that a forecast can pick such a difference this
far in advance . I think we must assume he chose his words carefully .

http://i631.photobucket.com/albums/uu39/co2keptics/SolarIrradianceoverlay2.jpg?t=1245065770


Joanne Nova talks about conditions at that time in the
link provided below ( Highly recommended reading ) and
she also seems to be calling a "Maunder minimum" .

http://joannenova.com.au/2011/05/the-brutal-cold-of-the-maunder-minimum-and-the-great-irish-frost/

[Ross]

Piers Corbyn calls "100 years of cooling"

Extract ...

Piers Corbyn astrophysicist of WeatherAction.com long range weather and
climate forecasters
today (18 June) revealed a major breakthrough in climate forecasting and
predicted general
world cooling for the next 100 years in direct opposition to The Met office
and UN forecast announced
on the same day.


"World cooling is hear to stay and the new round of climate alarmism just
announced by
UK Government ministers and the Met Office of more extreme weather and
warming in coming
decades driven by mankind has no merit and is defied by the facts and
front-line science".............( Continued ) ,



http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=50&c=1

[Ross]

The Little Ice Age caused social trauma .
( between the 16th and 19th centuries ).


Full article (http://thisbluemarble.com/newreply.php?do=newreply&noquote=1&p=313092)


Main points extracted from referenced article .

#This period was colder than at any other time in the past 2000 years
particularly cold between 1560 and 1660.
# shorter growing season that halved the grain yield.
# People shrank in height due to malnutrition ( 2 cm )
# Every aspect of life was affected
# Caused social crisis between the 16th and 19th centuries.
# Grain price rises then social disturbance, famine and migration,
Eventually this led to wars, such as the Thirty Years War
epidemics and a stunting of people's growth due to poor nutrition.

# height only increased again, with rising temperatures, after 1650.
Europe suffered "population collapse" with about 10 million deaths

# Wet tropical countries with high land-carrying capacity
did best .

[lilly]

Height. I see so many enormously tall people where I live. Especially in the younger ones. Well over six feet both male and females. Smallish heads, long torsos and legs? my god they go on forever.

Too tall. Like the Watusi's or a batch of basketball players. Some of it is familial, with wealthy generations consuming good food and loads of protein.

Nutritian.

I'm short.

[flourbug]

I see so many enormously tall people where I live. Especially in the younger ones. Well over six feet both male and females.

Milk. My two older daughters are 5'10' and 5'11". The youngest is 5' even. She was lactose intolerant.

[Ross]

I think it is fairly obvious that a primary key to surviving this
event will be the availability of cheap power .

You can grow/produce food almost anywhere if you have
affordable power . Cheap power will also be critical
for the transportation of fresh food to cooler climates .

IMO the takeaway is that because of the long time lag
involved in creating power delivery infrastructure Governments
should focus on clearing the red tape obstructions and
possibly providing tax incentives .

[Ross]

We seem well on track for another Dalton minimum .

http://www.openyoureyesnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/archibald_july2011_solar_fig3.png

[andy]

I thought I would jump in here with a few comments.

India, CHina, and Argentina have very large agricultural outputs. All three had problems this kast year. The US had a drought problem with Texas. Shifts in growing zones will come about naturally - but violently (so to speak). There was a rice problem a couple of years ago that is just now working itself out. If productivity (yield) drops, and consumption rises (more money and population in India and China), then exports drop. A lot of exports go to countries that are in famine. No surplus food - people die. As the date of first frost drops in latitude, productivity and yield drop. It may not be noticeable ontill you get a hard frost one year that decimates a whole states worth of crops followed by a flood that destroys another states crops followed by another drought in Texas.

Throw water issues into that and you have huge problems. People will get shot if the cops go to the farms to turn the wells off un Georgia, North Florida, and Alabama.

Here in Florida, we had a large citrus industry pushing right up to the edge of Gainesville (North Central Florida). Most of that got wiped out when cold weather killed most everything that looked like an orange tree down a hundred mikes.

Science can reduce a lot of these problems as can our university outreach programs. I was at a large meeting last year where the head of one of the nations crop research centers told those in attendance that have his PHDs were being laid off - with their research beeing essentially burned. I was at another large meeting early this year where a Big Wig from the University of Georgia informed us that half of the extension agents were being canned.

This has an effect of mitigating the transition of crops to people who dont know how to grow them. Or using the wrong fetilizer. Insect pests will also move. There are agricultural industries that have no Entomoligists. Take out the extension agents, and make farmers grow new crops and you got a CF.

Hundreds of factors could collide. The solution is communication, education, money, and cheap OIL. The internet solves the communications problem. Education will occure with money going into the state universities for outreach, and research. Money has to be provided to the Universities. Shale oil technologies will solve the oil issue for the next hundred years.

I think the most immediate agricultural issue is with tree fruits, nuts, etc. As I said about the oranges, a radical change in climate could change the landscape in tree agriculture as it could take many years to grow pecan trees, orange trees, apple orchards, etc. Problem here is that there may be no land to grow new trees. Of course Florida is a great example.

I dont think the blueberry industry would be affected in the least as crops might come in a week or two later - but who would notice since the crops comes in continuously.

The Vidalia onion crop might come in two weeks later - but again, who would notice? Most of their crop goes into controlled atmosphere storage for release throughout the rest of the year.

[Ought Six]

China is on the verge of an environmental catastrophe. How that will affect their food production remains to be seen. But the way their are poisoning their environment wholesale, I cannot see how they can keep toxins out of their food supply. I would assume that their food is already contaminated to varying degrees, and that the problem will continue to grow worse. India is not as bad, but has similar problems in some areas. So do the South American nations, including Brazil and Argentina. If their food is contaminated, only the most desperate and poor nations will buy their exported food.

The point about water is an excellent one. Aquifers are already being drained at unsustainable rates. The tension between farmers and ranchers on one side, and environmentalists and the government on the other will continue to grow. The water wars have been political thus far, but violence will break out sooner or later. Water conservation measures will be enforced, and the government has the SWAT teams, and if necessary, the troops to make it happen. Small food producers will continue to be driven out of business, and corporate agribiz will continue to take over more and more productive land and to buy up more water rights contracts. That means more GMO crops and more of our food supply controlled by a corrupt partnership between government and megacorps.

As for starving third world nations, they will become increasingly dependent upon aid from wealthy developed nations. This, of course, gives the wealthy nations some serious financial and political leverage over poor ones.

Interesting how this all works in favor of the big powers having an ever-increasing amount of control over the world and us peons. And as the economic crisis progresses, our buying power shrinks and we pay even more in taxes, sinking deeper into indentured servitude to Uncle Sugar. With corporatism becoming the standard form of government in the most powerful nations on Earth, I guess the bankster coup is progressing nicely. The bank does not just own our homes. It owns Planet Earth and all that dwell there.

[Ross]

MAUNDER MINIMUM 1740—REPLAY IN 2020?,


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/73/Carbon-14_with_activity_labels.png


Extract .....

A reader recently pointed out a fascinating temperature comparison—between 1700 AD and today. He marked two sections of the world’s oldest temperature record–Central England Yearly Average Temperature 1660–2008: The first section showed our famous recent temperature surge from 1976–1998. He also marked a similar strong temperature surge from AD 1688–1738.

The killer in the comparison is that the temperature surge after 1688 was followed by a sudden plunge into one of the coldest periods in the entire Little Ice Age. The cold of 1739-40 was called The Great Frost, and it devastated Europe from Italy to Iceland.

The linkage? The Great Frost followed a period of very few sunspots—The Maunder Minimum (1645–1715). Today, we know that fewer sunspots predict colder temperatures, and the modern world has just undergone a similar dearth of sunspots, from 2007 to 2011.......( more ) ...


This interesting article continued here (http://joannenova.com.au/2011/05/the-brutal-cold-of-the-maunder-minimum-and-the-great-irish-frost/)

http://joannenova.com.au/2011/05/the-brutal-cold-of-the-maunder-minimum-and-the-great-irish-frost/

[Ross]

Sunspot decline and earth temperature .

http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SFc.gif



http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NFC7a.htm

[Ross]

Recent US temperature trends .

http://uddebatt.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/jan-dec-2000-2011a.jpg?w=450&h=348


http://uddebatt.wordpress.com/tag/recent-3-months-u-s-temperature/


Oceans cooling trend .

http://uddebatt.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/2009-03-21_161134.jpg?w=450
http://uddebatt.wordpress.com/2009/03/21/all-oceans-are-steadily-cooling/

[Ross]

David Archibald is running a very interesting series
of articles at wattsupwiththat in which he warns the
good times ( temperature wise ) are not going to last .
Death and famine maybe the new normal .

Plant hardiness zones .

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/image58.png

Figure 5 shows the current hardiness zones map. The 10°F width of these zones just about
equates to the 5°C drop in temperature due to the length of Solar Cycle 24 over that of Solar Cycle 22.

The lesson from the Dye 3 temperature data, and that late 17th Century Finnish famine, is this:
exploit the expansion in the habitable zone as the Sun becomes more active, but be prepared
to run back towards the equator because it isn’t going to last.

[Ross]

The latest projection for solar cycle 25 is beyond scary .


http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/image_thumb62.png?w=644&h=359




Source ..
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/25/first-estimate-of-solar-cycle-25-amplitudesmallest-in-over-300-years/#more-55458

[kaneohegirl]

soooo what?? do they think we are headed toward another mini ice age?

[Ross]

soooo what?? do they think we are headed toward another mini ice age?

Yes that is exactly what we fear .

[kaneohegirl]

I guess that will mean the reformation of the polar ice caps huh...

[Ross]

Well this is interesting . I had assumed that in a Mini Ice Age energy
investment would be a big winner , in particular natural gas .

The report below shows it is not that simple .

Apparently there are difficulties associated with delivering gas in cold weather .

http://www.focus-fen.net/index.php?id=n270022

[Ross]

New Russian research paper describes a decline in
total solar irradiance ( TSI ) and onset of a Little Ice Age .



Bicentenial Decrease of the Total Solar Irradiance leads to
Unbalance Thermal Budget of the Earth and the little Ice Age
Applied Physics Research Feb 1 , 2012

Habibullo I . Abdussamatov , Russia


http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Future_TSI.jpg


http://icecap.us/images/uploads/TSI_since_1980.jpg

Full paper found here (http://icecap.us/images/uploads/abduss_APR.pdf)


Summary found here (http://icecap.us/index.php)


.

[Sonny]

Well this is interesting . I had assumed that in a Mini Ice Age energy
investment would be a big winner , in particular natural gas .

The report below shows it is not that simple .

Apparently there are difficulties associated with delivering gas in cold weather .

http://www.focus-fen.net/index.php?id=n270022

BRUSSELS—Russian natural-gas supplies to Europe were curtailed for a third straight day Friday as particularly cold winter weather increased Russia's domestic demand.

German utility RWE AG said Friday it is receiving about 30% less gas than it has requested Gazprom to deliver amid consistently severe cold weather.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203711104577200852563136204.html

No word has been given on how long the shortfall might last.


Ms. Holzner said that while exact figures for Friday aren't yet available, Thursday's supplies from Russia to Austria declined by 30%, to Italy by 24% and to Poland by 8%. Other countries affected include Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania and Greece.



Ross, Thanks for posting the reports on reduced solar TSI

[Ross]

Sunspots even below predicted diminishing trend ?


http://thisbluemarble.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=3527&d=1329306079

[Ross]

Another article by David Archibald .

This time on when it will start cooling ( Mid 2013 ) .

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/13/when-will-it-start-cooling/



.

[sandyd]

But how long will it cool?

[flourbug]

Until 2026, he says.

[Ross]

Until 2026, he says.

Actually only slight relief around 2026 .

This probably a 40 or 60 year event .

Very uncertain duration , very uncertain severity .

I have seen another forecast that cooling will not start to hit until
2015 .

It seems to me that Melbourne Australia is having a cold winter right now .
Not from extremes of cold but from duration of continuously cold weather .
I have not bothered to check the statistics , so perhaps it is perception
based on my bias.

[flourbug]

While most of the US has had horrendous heat and drought, it has been cool and rainy in Florida. Cool for us is relative. We usually celebrate October because that is the first time daytime highs drop below 90F. Not this year. There have been many days it didn't make it out of the 80's. Add in long periods of heavy rain every day, and MOLD is growing on Everything. Bugs galore, especially our state bird, the Palmetto bug. Plants are spindly and yellow, and the stunted produce is steaming and bursting on the bush. But aside from Debbie, no hurricanes or serious tropical storms. This is good since the rain has made everything LOOK like we've just survived a biblical drenching. Definitely a change of pace. I would not be surprised to see a few days of frost this winter if this weather pattern holds on.

[sandyd]

That would be a long time to cool down. If it's too cold, growing would be hurt more than the heat/drought this year.

It's been a cooler summer here except for the past couple of weeks where we not only got heat but some wet from T storms.

So, how is the oranges in FL? Sounds like a lot of the rest got a bit soggy....

[flourbug]

sandyd, oranges are a winter crop so the fruit is not affected by the weather now. The citrus trees, however, are loving it - so long as the farmers go heavy on spraying. The same rain that feeds the trees also increases the number of pests, and fungus diseases. Not much grows outside of the FL panhandle in the summer, but what does grow is thriving in the cooler, wetter conditions. Peanuts, sweet potatoes, okra, sunflowers, mango, avocado and longan are all going gangbusters. Cattle is also doing very well on the lush pasture.

[Ross]

Here is another forecast for the imminent down turn from another scientist .
This particular prediction was made in March 2012 .


The warm years ahead are not the result of ‘man-made global warming’ - as no such thing exists.

According to the laws of thermodynamics and physics; only the Sun can cause global warming. The world has been in its most recent warming phase since 1980. I have forecast that the global warming regime - a total of 36 years - will end in about 2016-17.



According to my calculations, 2012 will be a very warm year with record-setting heat waves. The summer will feature sweltering temperatures that could easily reach over 100+ degrees Fahrenheit with persistence.

High summer temperatures- heat waves - will dominate all summer and straight into September and October 2012 with above average warmer than normal temperatures that will easily extend into the autumn season.

My calculations show to expect daily average temperatures to exceed the expected average temperatures of 63+ degrees over 92 days during the months of June, July and August 2012 with 3-4 major heat waves - each lasting multiple days with daily maximums above 90+ degrees Fahrenheit with 100+ degree readings ample across the United States.

A blistering summer is just ahead right into September 2012 as well as a heat wave will occur in that month as well.





More here (http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=globalwarming&action=display&thread=1929)

[Sonny]

I would advise caution to whom you let it be known about your belief the Sun is largely
responsible for changes in global temperatures. They'll be calling you a radical.

~

[Ross]

Here is another forecast for 2014 and not from any old scientist either .


Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov, astrophysicist, is head of the Russian segment
of the International Space Station, and head of Space Research of the Sun Sector
at the Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences.


“Habibullo Abdusamatov, a scientist from the Pulkovo Observatory
of the Russian Academy of Sciences considers that the sharp drop in temperature will start on the Earth in 2014.

“According to the scientist, our planet began to “get cold” in the 1990s.
The new ice age will last at least two centuries, with its peak in 2055.


http://iceagenow.info/2012/02/ice-age-2014/



Sonny said ...

I would advise caution to whom you let it be known about your belief the Sun is largely
responsible for changes in global temperatures. They'll be calling you a radical.
Thanks Sonny , but that is what I am shooting for ,
Guantanamo is in a nice warm location . :)

[Ross]

Another great piece by David Archibald .
I have only posted charts and extracted paragraphs .

Onset of the Next Glaciation
by David Archibald

Baby boomers like me have enjoyed the most benign period in human history. The superpower nuclear standoff gave us fifty years of relative peace, we had cheap energy from inherent over-supply of oil, grain supply increased faster than population growth and the climate warmed due to the highest solar activity for 8,000 years. All those trends are now reversing. But it will get much worse than that. The next glaciation will wipe out many countries and nothing will stop that from happening. For example, the UK will end up looking like Lapland. As an indication of just how vicious it is going to get, consider that there are rocks on the beaches of Scotland that got blown over from Norway across a frozen North Sea. As scientists, our task is to predict the onset of the next glaciation.

Onset of interglacials is driven by insolation at 65°N. That is where the landmass is that is either snow-covered all year round or not. It seems that insolation above 510 watts/sq metre will end a glacial period. For an interglacial period to end, the oceans have to lose heat content so that snows will linger through the summer and increase the Earth’s albedo. Thanks to the disposition of the continents, our current ice age might last tens of millions of years yet. From the Milankovitch data, this graph shows insolation at 65°N from 50,000 BC to 50,000 AD:

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/clip_image002_thumb1.gif?w=583&h=360

Insolation is already low enough to trigger glacial onset. For the last 8,000 years, the Earth has been cooling at 0.25°C per thousand years, so the oceans are losing heat. We just have to get to that trigger point at which snows linger through the northern summer. Solar Cycle 25 might be enough to set it off. By the end of this decade, we will be paying more attention to the Rutgers Global Snow Lab data.


http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/clip_image004_thumb.gif?w=616&h=766

Full article here (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/09/16/onset-of-the-next-glaciation/#more-71121)


.

[Auburn Boy]

Only the Sun causes global warming.

Carbon sequestration is a direct result of the sun growing plants that capture the carbon.

You burn the sequestered carbon, and you release the enrgy stored (which came from the SUN.)

Reverse 400 million years of carbon sequestration, and you get 400 million years worht of excess stored energy.

And that's just the direct energy..,

Greenhouse warming has already been beaten to death. I won't go there again.

[Ross]

A likely out come ? Burning the forests ?

Extract ...

Greeks Raid Forests In Search Of Wood To Heat Homes

Greece just seems to be getting worse and worse. Being the leading edge of
Southern Europe’s descent into 3rd world status,

EGALEO, Greece—While patrolling on a recent cold night, environmentalist
Grigoris Gourdomichalis caught a young man illegally chopping down a tree on
public land in the mountains above Athens.


When confronted, the man broke down in tears, saying he was unemployed
and needed the wood to warm the home he shares with his wife and four
small children, because he could no longer afford heating oil.........


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-14/greeks-raid-forests-search-wood-heat-homes

As others have noted the lack of forests in North Korea may be a similar story .


.

[Ross]

The research paper found here (http://www.cdejager.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/2012-sudden-trans-JSWSC-2-A073.pdf) suggests the coming event
will be a Dalton minimum event rather than a Maunder minimum
( That is a milder downturn ) .


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/28/Sunspot_Numbers.png/400px-Sunspot_Numbers.png (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/28/Sunspot_Numbers.png/400px-Sunspot_Numbers.png)

[Ross]

http://www.solen.info/solar/cyclcomp1.gif

Source (http://www.solen.info/solar/cyclcomp.html)