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Lars
12-17-2008, 10:21 AM
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7786060.stm

This year is coolest since 2000

By Richard Black

Environment correspondent, BBC News website



Winter brought unfamiliarly cold weather to large swathes of Europe


The world in 2008 has been cooler than at any time since the turn of the century, scientists say.

Cooling La Nina conditions in the Pacific brought temperatures down to levels last seen in the year 2000.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) notes that temperatures remained about 0.3C above the 1961-1990 average.

Computer models suggest that natural cycles may cool the Earth's surface in the next few years, masking the warming impact of rising greenhouse gas levels.

Human influence, particularly emission of greenhouse gases, has greatly increased the chance of having such warm years

Peter Stott, UK Met Office


El Nino/La Nina explained

One recent analysis suggested there may be no warming for about the next decade, though other scientists dispute the conclusion.

What is beyond dispute is that 2008 saw temperatures a shade below preceding years.

Using data from two major monitoring networks, one co-ordinated by the UK's Hadley Centre and University of East Anglia (UEA) and the other by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa), the WMO reports that despite the cooling, 2008 still ranks among the 10 warmest years on record.

At 14.3C, the average temperature for the year was significantly above the 14.0C average for the 1961-1990 period, a commonly used baseline.

Temperatures are about 0.7C above pre-industrial times.

Peter Stott, head of climate monitoring and attribution at the UK Met Office of which the Hadley Centre is a part, suggested that in previous decades 2008 would have stood out as unusually warm.
Data is recorded at thousands of weather stations

"Human influence, particularly emission of greenhouse gases, has greatly increased the chance of having such warm years," he said.

Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (Giss), which produces its own record of atmospheric temperature, agreed that 2008 was the coolest year since the turn of the century.

But Giss still ranks it as the ninth warmest since 1880.

The warmest of all remains 1998, when exceptionally strong El Nino conditions added to rising greenhouse gas levels sent thermometers to an average of about 14.5C.

"The most important component of year-to-year variability in global average temperatures is the phase and amplitude of equatorial sea surface temperatures in the Pacific that lead to La Nina and El Nino events," observed UEA's Dr Phil Jones.

Millennial warmth

John Christy, a scientist noted for taking a cautious approach to the likely impacts of human-induced climate change, agreed that the Earth's atmosphere had warmed by about 0.4C over 30 years.

His own research team at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) produces global temperature data from satellite readings, and uses weather balloons to verify the satellite record.

Professor Christy suggested that the trend in the immediate future would be decided by whether conditions in the Pacific veer towards El Nino or La Nina. THE 10 WARMEST YEARS
1998 - 14.52C
2005 - 14.48C
2003 - 14.46C
2002 - 14.46C
2004 - 14.43C
2006 - 14.42C
2007 - 14.40C
2001 - 14.40C
1997 - 14.36C
2008 - 14.31C
Data from Hadley Centre

"If you look at the 30-year graph of month-to-month temperature anomalies, the most obvious feature is the series of warmer than normal months that followed the major El Nino Pacific Ocean warming event of 1997-1998," he said.

"Right now we are coming out of one La Nina Pacific Ocean cooling event, and we might be heading into another.

"It should be interesting over the next several years to see whether the post La Nina climate 're-sets' to the cooler seasonal norms we saw before 1997, or the warmer levels seen since then."

The effect of El Nino and La Nina conditions are one reason why scientists prefer to average temperatures over 10-year periods, which smoothes out the annual variations and gives a better picture of long-term trends.

On average, the decade from 1990 to 1999 was 0.23C above the 1961-1990 baseline, while in the period 2000-2008 it was 0.40C over, indicating a warming trend.

It is almost certain that the first decade of this century will turn out to have been significantly warmer than the last decade of the last century, notwithstanding the freak El Nino year of 1998.

The question for the next decade or so will be whether natural cycles such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation continue to moderate the warming effect of rising greenhouse gas concentrations.

southerncross
12-23-2008, 08:09 AM
AllRecorded temperature increases or decreases are within the natural historical trend, There is still no proven fact of anthropogenic effect on the Global temperature at all. It go's up it go's down, fact of life.,

Kassy
12-23-2008, 08:18 AM
AllRecorded temperature increases or decreases are within the natural historical trend, There is still no proven fact of anthropogenic effect on the Global temperature at all. It go's up it go's down, fact of life.,

The natural historical trend is not the same as 'has been observed at some point in time on earth'.

Everything this century is off scale which is why we have stuff like the hockeystick and a couple of IPCC reports.

Recent research on historical trend here:
http://curevents.org/showthread.php?t=7001

Enjoy. :beer:

southerncross
12-23-2008, 09:00 AM
Kassy the Hockey stick was a Fraud and a Joke. The reason everything this century is off scale is that we only have the recent relevant recordings to compare against, mostly very recent and mostly unreliable. Compared to the ancient or recent (100,000) yrs there is no conclusive reliable history to compare against. So far as the IPPC go's the decisions are more to do with politics than actual science or anything else. The current chairman is a pawn and the power of the IPPC is non existant so far as global warming pollution go's .
If governments were really concerned or dedicated they would ensure that such things as solar power or renewable energy got a tax break or recieved more funding for research, the fact is they dont give a shit, there is no tax income for them and they lose money when the common people spend money on things such as solar and renewable energy. It cuts into the tax they place on non renewable energy such as oil and fuel, gas ect, and cost's them when people put in place Solar etc.
This is the reason Gov wants to impliment Carbon Taxes, Ignore the renewable energy and still ensure an income , while still not doing anything to change a problem that really does not exist(climate change) and that no-one can do anything about.
It is all natural, it has been and will be, there is a massive scare industry that will squeeze everyone for a dollar, along with local government, and federal Government, They know it is natural but will price you all accordingly, all in the name of doing good for the environment, all while doing sweet fuck all.
If you really want to help the environment, go solar, go biodiesel, go setup your own water supply if you can, Buy your food local from a market, go local and aviod multi nationals.

Fattail
12-23-2008, 09:42 AM
On average, the decade from 1990 to 1999 was 0.23C above the 1961-1990 baseline, while in the period 2000-2008 it was 0.40C over, indicating a warming trend.

How completely pointless and ridiculous to compare 2 different 10 year periods to a 30 year baseline in a data set of 4 billion years.

Real scientists have a phrase for nonsense like this, STATISTICALLY INSIGNIFICANT.


What is beyond dispute is that 2008 saw temperatures a shade below preceding years.

Oh I see, when the temperature moves down, it moves in shades. (ironically enough it is always cooler in the shade.):lol:

When it moves slightly higher in a short period of time, based upon statistically insignificant data points in a sample so miniscule it defies logic, it is cause for hyperbolic panic, gov't studies, gov't intrusion, and a humongous tax on commerce and capitalism.:no:

Auburn Boy
12-23-2008, 10:42 PM
Three words:

Normal statistical variance.

After all, it is a very complicated system.

Kassy
12-24-2008, 08:42 AM
Fattail - please consider posting that 4 billion year data set of yours on some open source format. Humanity would be grateful and it might even get you a Nobel prize. :beer: