PDA

View Full Version : Our 2009 Predictions


usda
12-22-2008, 05:36 AM
Our 2009 Predictions
Fair Use
Roger Wiegand
Dec 22, 2008

"We think we now have enough data from both the fundamentals and technicals to make some serious forecasts and predictions for 2009. While 2008 was a nasty year when lots of things imploded, they are far from being repaired. Treasury Secretary Paulson told us this week there are no more surprises, which tells me we haven't even discovered but a small portion of this monster derivative mess. His ripping-off of the taxpayers to the tune of $700 billion is only a warm-up. However, the larger question for traders and investors is what could happen next and when.

In the following report we take the key global economic points and suggest the outcome for 2009."
-Traderrog

The most important news for 2008 was the destruction of the big global banks' net worth and their badly wounded ability to conduct normal business and make market-moving loans. Ben & Hank's bailout only helped the bad-boy banks reliquify themselves to remain somewhat solvent and stay in business. They are doing nothing to extend credit to any business enhancing western or global economies. The 2009 result will be no significant banker lending, taking more bailout money and sweeping additional bad loans of all stripes under the banker's rug and hiding the rest in back rooms.

The largest surprise in our view was the massive disaster at insurance giant AIG. Despite numerous injections of bailout billions, AIG remains in very serious trouble hanging on by their proverbial fingernails. The 2009 result will be a surprise crash and failure of AIG frightening the world at large causing ripples of failures throughout western and Asian nations unable to conduct business without mandatory insurance policies. Most folks have no comprehension as to the monster fallout this will create. It is in our view literally immeasurable, and this is why Paulson handed them so much money.

Our new president is determined to hand out $860 Billion to One Trillion dollars in a Herculean effort to literally buy a new economic recovery. While some of his ideas are noble indeed the overall plan
will have little effect and Great Depression II shall take hold in 2009 with crashing stock markets in May and September-October 2009. We think the worst of the worst hits in later September 2009.

During the spring of next year we see:

(1) A second larger wave of residential housing mortgage failures; (2) The first big wave of auto loan failures and repossessions; (3) Over $40 billion in credit card defaults, smashing the bank lenders; (4) The first wave of commercial mortgage failures and foreclosures on shopping malls, office buildings and other commercials; (5) And finally, the grand smashing finale of CDS Credit Default Swaps originated with No margin money or down payments! We heard today the total is 500 trillion! I cannot even fathom that number. These five converging train wrecks could take the Dow from a dead cat bounce of 10400-10800 back to 7250, or even 6600, or 5600.

Shares traders and investors have one more solid quarter, in our view to regain some stock market losses on the forthcoming Obama Trillion Dollar handouts. We think the rising share markets will help most all sectors gain some recovery and provide the illusion the bottoms are in and new bases found. The stark reality hits home after shares peak in April or early May taking an unprecedented selling high dive scaring the wits out of Americans and the watching world.

Even with these events and rising unemployment and social problems, economic observers and analysts could continue to plead the worst is over, the bottoms are in and a fine, new, shiny world of trading and investing in our bright economy lies just ahead for the fall of 2009. Then, in later September and early October, the New York, London, Tokyo and Asian markets take a monster crash. How low is low and how bad can it get? We think the Dow could end-up on November 1st, 2009 anywhere from 5,600 to a low of 3,000 or even 1,500. One guideline will be a falling overshoot of PE's on our largest, so-called international corporations posting lows of 4 to7. Today, many of them are near 18. What does this tell us about the severity of our projections?

Unemployment nationally in the USA is now touching 16%. The officially posted number is somewhere near half of that. By the fall of 2009, American REAL UNEMPLOYMENT WILL BE NEAR THE ALLTIME 1930'S DEPRESSION HIGH OF 25% UNEMPLOYED. SADLY, THAT IS NOT THE WORST AS IT GETS MORE DIRE. WE PREDICT REAL, USA UNEMPLOYMENT REACHES 30-40%. IN THE RUST BELT STATES OF MICHIGAN AND OHIO, WHILE 40% IS NOT UNREALISTIC.

Several European nations have larger, more established social safety nets for the unemployed. In the USA, local, regional and national authorities are not nearly as prepared. The American federal government departments for food stamps and the job of providing welfare provisions will be overwhelmed. This will be a Katrina event for the hungry citizens of the United States. Urban areas will see skyrocketing crime and in parts of some cities, life could become totally uninhabitable.

The last report we've seen on those receiving food handouts and related welfare amounted to 11 million USA citizens with 700,000 children going hungry each day. We suspect the true amount of those needing food help will rise to 35,000,000 with an untold tragic number of them being little, defenseless children. Governments remain in denial and are not prepared for this national emergency whatsoever. As things worsen, food riots and others with violence aimed at the "haves' are common.

The number of bank failures over the next three years will be in the thousands. In addition, the US Dollar's valuation could break recent lows near 70.00 on the index, dropping to 46.00 by 2011 or 2012.
Inflation or potentially hyperinflation is quite real as the Federal Reserve and US Treasury strain to print and circulate cash to prod our stalled economy. It is simply not working even with the dramatically lower interest rates of late. Benny Bernanke is out of rate cut running room.

Consumers are broke and going broker. Households of interrelated families are doubling and tripling up even with several employed members being under one roof. Basic costs of rent, mortgage payments, health care, food, utilities and taxes are too much to bear on stagnant and in some cases falling wages. In some areas of America, there are entire subdivisions of homes totally abandoned or existing with only a hand full of occupants. The millions thrown at lenders for new mortgages are not getting through to buyers, as there are fewer of them. We are witnessing system breakdown.

Municipalities and states are sinking into a spending, debt-ridden morass. It was reported today that 22 of 50 USA states are in serious budgetary trouble. California is one of those in terrible condition and Michigan is already technically broke as are many of her cities. Detroit will file bankruptcy in 2009 and there will many other surprises as well. There will be a cascade of bond defaults and the outcome will cap the ability of these cities, states and counties to borrow ever more.

The shining light through all of this is the faster we find the bottom the faster we can recover. Sadly, the recovery process will take years. Futures and commodities traders should continue to earn steady profits as the stock markets slide into oblivion for years. We see no recovery until 2015.

Trader Rog - Roger Wiegand
Editor, Trader Tracks
email: traderrog@comcast.net
Trader Tracks from www.miningstocks.com


http://www.321gold.com/editorials/wiegand/wiegand122208.html

gsgs
12-22-2008, 07:18 AM
Our 2009 Predictions
We see no recovery until 2015

... says Roger Wiegand. (who are the others in "we" ?)

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wiegand/bio.html

http://www.kitco.com/ind/index.html#wiegand



seems that he has a professional interest in black predictions





April 18,2007
> We strongly encourage our readers, traders and investors to install an on-going savings
> plan to buy precious metals coins.
Gold : 650-850 , Silver : 13-11 , Platinum : 1300-880

Jan.09.2008
> From our perspective the two most dangerous times for gold and silver will be late April to early
> May and the 60-90 day period leading-up to the fall presidential election this November
> We feel it is very important to note that gold versus several currencies is now in the early
> stages of running away from them in rallies
> The dollar is weak and getting weaker. Currently, it is stabilized but should resume its nasty fall
> as this year wears on.
$: 76-82 , gold:880-850 , silver:15-11

Fiddlerdave
12-22-2008, 12:32 PM
seems that he has a professional interest in black predictionsSo? Krudlow and CO and every other mouthpiece on the economy has a professional interest in good predictions - "the housing and stock markets will go up forever!!!" - and yet their words were gospel.

BirdGuano
12-22-2008, 01:03 PM
It doesn't take a rocket surgeon to do the math and come to a similar conclusion.

The FED's stated goal is to inflate their way out of this mess.

They also historically overshoot every single action that they have undertaken in their history.

BTW I didn't even see gold/silver mentioned in the entire monograph. Except by GS.

:rolleyes:

gsgs
12-22-2008, 01:13 PM
it's the red thread through all his articles :

dollar down, economy down, trust in US-debt down , inflation up

==> gold and silver up

usda
12-23-2008, 11:22 PM
gsgs, do you have reason to believe differently? Please explain...I need good news.

frodo
12-24-2008, 12:37 AM
You want good news?

The good news is that a very large part of the troubles of the United States are self inflicted on behlaf of rich vested interests, and are easily and quickly fixeable if the vested interests can be neutralised.

For a start, you need a national medical malpractice insurance scheme that is a "No Fault" scheme that removes Lawyers from the process of dealing with bad medicine. That will bring down Doctors and paramedics medical malpractice insurance costs immediately, and with it all health related costs.

Then you might like to enquire why your drug companies are selling drugs overseas at a fraction of what you get to pay for them.

Then you might like the Government to rewrite the rules under which health insurance is provided, or start their own national scheme to keep the bastards honest.

Then you might like to rewrite the insane farm subsidy system.

And the insane industrial subsidy system, starting with the Jones Act that prevents you from accessing cheap ships.

Then there is the bankruptcy system and consumer credit rules.

Oh Yes, decriminalise possession of dope and put the prison industry and more lawyers out of business.

And finally, rip the guts out of the defence budget and put the money saved to work educating Americans.

....And thats only in Thirty seconds thinking.

Glenn 50
12-24-2008, 02:50 AM
frodo...you are a genius...you must have had a Kiwi Mum or Dad.
Fully agree with you.

Ben Franklin
12-24-2008, 03:32 AM
Frodo lives!

Frodo for Dictator of the USA!

You had some good ideas, Frodo, but until you're elected we can safely predict economic disaster. Although it will be interesting to see how many other countries we bring down with us, even perhaps some pretty good systems.

Misty
12-24-2008, 06:51 AM
Good news? IMHO, there's always good news if we open our eyes to see the good small things around us every day. Not what's in any of the news media, because they thrive on reporting troubles. Rather, the small pleasures in nature, family and friends, wonderful music and art, and even being able to think and move and engage in things that interest us.

Is that being a pollyanna? I don't think so. We've all lived enough years to have been punched in the stomach by life and dragged through mud holes. We have our scars and bruises to show for it. If the past is a predictor of the future, we can guess that there might be more nasty encounters, both personally and collectively. Yet even during past bad times, if we could keep our minds open to the gentle blessings in life, they were there to be enjoyed. They're all around us and in us. See....hear....touch....breathe.

The good news is that in 2009 they'll still be there.

(ramblings by an old woman, but sometimes even an old woman has something to share)

rryan
12-24-2008, 11:47 AM
You want good news?

The good news is that a very large part of the troubles of the United States are self inflicted on behlaf of rich vested interests, and are easily and quickly fixeable if the vested interests can be neutralised.

For a start, you need a national medical malpractice insurance scheme that is a "No Fault" scheme that removes Lawyers from the process of dealing with bad medicine. That will bring down Doctors and paramedics medical malpractice insurance costs immediately, and with it all health related costs.

Then you might like to enquire why your drug companies are selling drugs overseas at a fraction of what you get to pay for them.

Then you might like the Government to rewrite the rules under which health insurance is provided, or start their own national scheme to keep the bastards honest.

Then you might like to rewrite the insane farm subsidy system.

And the insane industrial subsidy system, starting with the Jones Act that prevents you from accessing cheap ships.

Then there is the bankruptcy system and consumer credit rules.

Oh Yes, decriminalise possession of dope and put the prison industry and more lawyers out of business.

And finally, rip the guts out of the defence budget and put the money saved to work educating Americans.

....And thats only in Thirty seconds thinking.

I am sure the Politburo would approve

frodo
12-24-2008, 02:28 PM
Rryan, that is exactly what the vested interests will say.

Let me show you something:

http://www.tac.vic.gov.au/jsp/corporate/homepage/home.jsp

The TAC is a Victorian Government-owned organisation set up in 1986..

Its role is to pay for treatment and benefits for people injured in transport accidents. It is also involved in promoting road safety in Victoria and in improving Victoria's trauma system..

Funding used by the TAC to perform these functions comes from payments made by Victorian motorists when they register their vehicles each year with VicRoads.

The TAC is a "no-fault" scheme. This means that medical benefits will be paid to an injured person - regardless of who caused the accident.

Legislation guides the TAC in the types of benefits it can pay and any conditions that apply. This legislation is called theTransport Accident Act 1986.

To ensure it remains a long-term compensation scheme, the TAC uses its funds fairly and responsibly. This ensures the TAC is able to meet the needs of seriously injured people who need lifetime care.


Now this was established in 1986 over the screams of the lawyers who had been feasting on motor car insurance for decades. It's not "socialism" it's common sense. My registration charge, including TAC contribution, is about US$500 per year and hasn't changed much in the last Ten years.

Now we are losing obstetricians at quite a high rate. Guess why? That's right! Their medical malpractice insurance premium is around $250,000 per year....Time for another "no fault' scheme.

P.S. "Socialism" is paying farmers good money NOT to plant something - which America does.

BirdGuano
12-24-2008, 03:02 PM
From Wikipedia:

Several U.S. states have experimented with and repealed their no-fault laws. Twenty-four states originally enacted no-fault laws in some form between 1970 and 1975. Colorado repealed its no-fault system in 2003. Florida's no-fault system sunset on October 1, 2007, but a new no-fault law was passed by the Florida legislature, creating a new no-fault system as of January 1, 2008.

In at least one state, New York, the no-fault plan suddenly and unexpectedly resulted in a flood of litigation beginning around 1995 and continuing unabated to 2007 on. As documented by the New York State Insurance Department and the New York Court of Appeals, a billion-dollar-a-year "no fault fraud industry" has emerged, in which criminal rings recruit conspirators - often immigrants - to pile into automobiles which are to be involved in deliberate or staged accidents. The alleged victims are subsequently referred to compliant "medical clinics" which supply unnecessary, questionable or redundant treatment or medical supplies. Medical bills are sent en masse to no-fault insurers, and when payment is denied, a suit is commenced by attorneys which apparently specialize in just this kind of claim.

In 2002, the New York State Insurance Department amended the no-fault regulations to shorten the time period in which claims must be reported, from 90 days to 30 days; the new regulations also reduced the time in which medical bills must be submitted to insurers, from 180 days after treatment, to 45 days. According to the Insurance Department, these revised regulations have helped to reduce the number of fraudulent claims. Nevertheless, no-fault litigation is reported to constitute 25 percent of all lawsuits filed in the New York City Civil Court.

usda
12-25-2008, 01:34 AM
Somewhere we got to take a bigger view, what is the common good? I don't have answers to the dilemma but if we continue penalizing MD's as we are doing...soon we won't have any...but the lawyers were laughing all the way to the bank. Tort reform is must if we are to survive with needed institutions intact.

But tort reform is no less pressing than regulators for the banking and finance institutions. One of the most helpful thing would be the ability to persecute CEO's instead of considering a company an impersonal institution. We can sue the company but can't touch the evil doers who take the company and shareholders down with it.

This has to change. The ability of CEO's and their hand picked board of interlocking directors needs to lose their ability to set CEO and their own numeration...it's currently not based on performance but something totally mystic. The company, workers and shareholders go into the pit and the CEO's golden parachutes just keep pumping them up with undeserved monies.

We need the ability to strip them of outrageous salaries and go after their personal possessions...which really belong to the company.

:beer: Free markets have been dead for a generation or more.

noeyedeer
12-25-2008, 06:29 AM
Fixing the medical system is much easier. Go back to the mutual providers we used to have (like Blue Cross/ Blue Shield still is), and remove the "for profit" providers we now have.

sandyd
12-25-2008, 11:54 AM
noeyedeer, from what I've heard those two are the worst at being willing to accept new patients who aren't in perfect health.......history of anything in the past = no coverage for you!


I would not mind forcing them to take people and telling them exactly how to charge them for the insurance so they don't set the price so high most can't get it anyways....

/not capitalism but lately I'm kinda pissed off at capitalism. Yano?

flourbug
12-25-2008, 12:32 PM
In 1955 Blue Cross/ Blue Shield DROPPED my family the day my sister was born and refused to pay any of her medical bills. They said they would allow the rest of our family to sign back up, but without her. My father told them where to shove their insurance policy - which he had been paying faithfully for over a decade when she was born.

Insurance is not a charity. It is a profit driven business that will use any law or excuse or loophole they can find to avoid paying out the benefits you THINK you are purchasing.

shalym
12-25-2008, 05:34 PM
Hmmm...maybe it's something in the state laws in CT, or maybe Blue Cross/Blue Shield has changed, but I've had them for almost 10 years now, and never had a problem. When we got the insurance, my husband had a lifetime history of severe asthma (with numerous hospitalizations) and my son had recently gotten out of the hospital because of what we thought was the croup and turned out to be tracheomalacia. When my husband was diagnosed with cancer, the only thing we had to ever pay out of pocket was a $20 copay once a month to the oncologist, and $10 each time we refilled the prescription for his pain meds.

We don't pay more than other people do for the same type of coverage, and never have. In fact, one of my clients recently offered to put me on her company's insurance plan, because she was so sure it would be cheaper. When I looked into it and compared, it turned out that my copay would have been higher, I would have fewer doctors to choose from, and I would have paid more for prescriptions. I would have also had to be pre-approved for things like MRIs and CT scans--my doctor's orders would not be enough (with Blue Cross, if the dr says it is needed, then it happens--no pre-approval needed) For all of this, I would have saved about $25/month.

For me, at least, Blue Cross has been a dream insurance plan.

Shari

flourbug
12-25-2008, 05:38 PM
Shari, it does sound like you have excellent coverage, and you certainly have put it to the test.

Ross
12-25-2008, 06:07 PM
Frodo said ....
Rryan, that is exactly what the vested interests will say.
Let me show you something:

Frodo , No-fault insurance is far from a perfect solution. Victims are not well cared for .
The Victorian Ombudsman has highlighted continuing customer service failures by the Transport Accident Commission (TAC) and the Victorian WorkCover Authority (VWA).

In his 2007/08 Annual Report the Ombudsman revealed that the number of serious and complex complaints had increased for both TAC and VWA, Shadow Minister for WorkCover and TAC Gordon Rich-Phillips.

"The complaint themes noted by the Ombudsman included the Accident Compensation Conciliation Service (ACCS) Ministerial Guidelines, the Model Litigant Guidelines, decision making and internal complaint-handling services," Mr Rich-Phillips said. (page 58)

"Not only have serious complex complaints increased since last year, but there has been no reduction in overall complaints received by the Ombudsman, with 390 TAC and VWA complaints received this year. (page 62)

"The Ombudsman highlights the fact that the TAC is and VWA's drawn out decision-making desperately needs improvement. The report includes details of a case where the TAC took eight months to respond to a doctor's recommendation that an accident victim underwent surgery. This type of treatment is appalling and it raises questions as to how many other such cases exist, and have gone unreported. (page 27)

"Such poor performance from TAC and VWA is simply unacceptable, and the Brumby Government must ensure that both organisations improve the way they handle sensitive situations.

"There is no room for delayed decision-making when it comes to assisting the seriously injured.

"The Ombudsman also highlighted the TAC's failure to act as a 'model litigant' in court cases and noted its 'win at all costs' approach, and its questionable handling of evidence. (page 60)

"This report highlights a number of serious systemic issues with TAC and VWA. The Brumby Government must ensure that TAC and WorkSafe act effectively and fairly in the best interests of accident victims and their families," Mr Rich-Phillips said.


http://www.vic.liberal.org.au/default.cfm?action=news_detail&ID=7402


Here is the Ombudsmans list from 2005
•failure to respond to requests
•failure to pay for treatment
•failure to communicate a decision
•failure to communicate the evidence considered and reasons for a
decision
•delays in making a decision
•conduct
•access to information
•complaints about the Medical Panel and ACCS.

spinnerholic
12-26-2008, 07:01 PM
Why should insurance companies be "for profit" instead of being a company that provides JOBS for people AND insurance coverage? What's wrong with limiting CEO salaries to 30% of what the lowest paid worker is earning?

If the lowest paid is making $7.50, then the CEO walks away with $225 an hour, based on a 40 hour week, and $468.000 a year. A CEO can't live well on that amount? They won't be able to have 7 or 8 houses or their own huge yatch or a whole flock of Very Expensive Autos or even a private plane, but life is tough all over isn't it?

Almost half a million in pay isn't anything any of us would turn down, is it?

And why not favor bonuses for a well run, well managed business? I like that idea, along with giving the bonus to ~all~ company employees too. Why not give the workers the bonus? They do the work that makes the company strong, so why not give everyone a bonus up to half a years pay? Employee turn over at such a company would likely be dang near zero.

The present system of rewarding sorry CEO's with a pile of money higher than they are tall is flat insane. ESPECIALLY when their leadership has the company with it's nose buried in the dirt and totally failing!

rryan
12-26-2008, 08:07 PM
Why should insurance companies be "for profit" instead of being a company that provides JOBS for people AND insurance coverage? What's wrong with limiting CEO salaries to 30% of what the lowest paid worker is earning?

If the lowest paid is making $7.50, then the CEO walks away with $225 an hour, based on a 40 hour week, and $468.000 a year. A CEO can't live well on that amount? They won't be able to have 7 or 8 houses or their own huge yatch or a whole flock of Very Expensive Autos or even a private plane, but life is tough all over isn't it?

Almost half a million in pay isn't anything any of us would turn down, is it?

And why not favor bonuses for a well run, well managed business? I like that idea, along with giving the bonus to ~all~ company employees too. Why not give the workers the bonus? They do the work that makes the company strong, so why not give everyone a bonus up to half a years pay? Employee turn over at such a company would likely be dang near zero.

The present system of rewarding sorry CEO's with a pile of money higher than they are tall is flat insane. ESPECIALLY when their leadership has the company with it's nose buried in the dirt and totally failing!

I do not mean this as an insult---just a statement of the obvious--

You have never worked in managing a large business.

I have to run but first of all--$500k a year to be a C-Level of a large company? No way in hell. I have had the opportunity to do that for more $ than that and said no thank you.

To do the job properly you LIVE it. You can not get people with the right capabilities for that kind of money.

Secondly--take the profit motive out of business and what do you get? the equivalent of government and you see how well that works.

Therese
12-26-2008, 09:15 PM
Hmmm...maybe it's something in the state laws in CT, or maybe Blue Cross/Blue Shield has changed, but I've had them for almost 10 years now, and never had a problem. When we got the insurance, my husband had a lifetime history of severe asthma (with numerous hospitalizations) and my son had recently gotten out of the hospital because of what we thought was the croup and turned out to be tracheomalacia. When my husband was diagnosed with cancer, the only thing we had to ever pay out of pocket was a $20 copay once a month to the oncologist, and $10 each time we refilled the prescription for his pain meds.

We don't pay more than other people do for the same type of coverage, and never have. In fact, one of my clients recently offered to put me on her company's insurance plan, because she was so sure it would be cheaper. When I looked into it and compared, it turned out that my copay would have been higher, I would have fewer doctors to choose from, and I would have paid more for prescriptions. I would have also had to be pre-approved for things like MRIs and CT scans--my doctor's orders would not be enough (with Blue Cross, if the dr says it is needed, then it happens--no pre-approval needed) For all of this, I would have saved about $25/month.

For me, at least, Blue Cross has been a dream insurance plan.

Shari


Shari, my DH is just about to start a new job with excellent BC/BS insurance. His friend took a position with this employer 6 months ago and his wife has terrible arthritis and takes very expensive drugs - not a hint of any problems with the insurance paying for it. Given that I have a serious health problem that is life threatening if not controlled, but is controlled cheaply, I had a concern that if it ended up requiring expensive tx, would they give us problems or would they consider this some kind of pre-existing condition that they wouldn't cover? I don't think so given the experience of his friend so far. I am very happy for this coverage as it extends my ability to find In Plan physicians, from what I currently have access to, to help me determine the cause, and possible tx of, my condition.

BirdGuano
12-27-2008, 02:18 AM
$500K/yr is about Division Vice President level at a medium sized US company.

But I'm not sure I agree that you can't get people with the "capabilities" at that level...god knows we're getting CEO's now at 10x multiples of that price, that are doing nothing but running companies into the ground, with no intervention from the board.

sandyd
12-27-2008, 11:37 AM
Are we paying that for true business skills or are we paying for who they 'know'?


frodo, that may be the big difference.....down under, do people get paid lots of money cuz they know someone or for their abilities?

Ross
12-27-2008, 01:53 PM
"down under " .... actually Sandyd we are not down under you are .


http://www.flourish.org/upsidedownmap/mcarthur-large.jpg

sandyd
12-27-2008, 05:10 PM
I'm lost......


/that's not new

AndreaCA
12-27-2008, 06:48 PM
:funnypost:"down under " .... actually Sandyd we are not down under you are .


http://www.flourish.org/upsidedownmap/mcarthur-large.jpg

BirdGuano
12-27-2008, 11:22 PM
Damn, I get a headache just looking at that map.

:D

sandyd
12-28-2008, 01:15 AM
Damn....that map wasn't there the first time I looked.....at least I'm only partly lost now....as in

:panic: I can't find where I am!

Fiddlerdave
12-28-2008, 01:50 PM
Shari, my DH is just about to start a new job with excellent BC/BS insurance. His friend took a position with this employer 6 months ago and his wife has terrible arthritis and takes very expensive drugs - not a hint of any problems with the insurance paying for it. Given that I have a serious health problem that is life threatening if not controlled, but is controlled cheaply, I had a concern that if it ended up requiring expensive tx, would they give us problems or would they consider this some kind of pre-existing condition that they wouldn't cover? I don't think so given the experience of his friend so far. I am very happy for this coverage as it extends my ability to find In Plan physicians, from what I currently have access to, to help me determine the cause, and possible tx of, my condition.The function of a health plan through an employer depends heavily on what the employer has set up with the insurance company. The company can even pay for immediate coverage of existing health conditions for new hires, which in most states allows the insirance companies to not pay for from 6 months to 1.5 years, and in some cases they never have to pay to cover it at all (and certainly never do if you allow them to exclude the condition when you first enroll). It is all up to the company. I would recommend checking carefully before incurring any large costs.

Sadly, many more companies are cutting back to ever cheaper policies with larger exclusions and copays, smaller lifetime maximums, longer waits (several years before they even cover you at all), and do heath history screenings and simply do not hire someone whose family health history would increase the health insurance costs.

Be pleased you have found one of the ever more rare gems in the manure pile.

Therese
12-28-2008, 02:41 PM
The function of a health plan through an employer depends heavily on what the employer has set up with the insurance company. The company can even pay for immediate coverage of existing health conditions for new hires, which in most states allows the insirance companies to not pay for from 6 months to 1.5 years, and in some cases they never have to pay to cover it at all (and certainly never do if you allow them to exclude the condition when you first enroll). It is all up to the company. I would recommend checking carefully before incurring any large costs.

Sadly, many more companies are cutting back to ever cheaper policies with larger exclusions and copays, smaller lifetime maximums, longer waits (several years before they even cover you at all), and do heath history screenings and simply do not hire someone whose family health history would increase the health insurance costs.

This happened at my DH's current employer - family deductable went up to $1,500, personal to $500.

His previous employer prior to that was self insured, and laid him off even though he was one of their most valuable employees and he was the only one laid off. We beleive it is because of my health issues that suddenly sprung up 6 months before.


Be pleased you have found one of the ever more rare gems in the manure pile.

I am very please dave. :)

Therese
12-28-2008, 02:42 PM
Damn, I get a headache just looking at that map.

:D

Me too! My eyes go all buggy! :eek:

shalym
12-28-2008, 09:12 PM
The function of a health plan through an employer depends heavily on what the employer has set up with the insurance company. The company can even pay for immediate coverage of existing health conditions for new hires, which in most states allows the insirance companies to not pay for from 6 months to 1.5 years, and in some cases they never have to pay to cover it at all (and certainly never do if you allow them to exclude the condition when you first enroll). It is all up to the company. I would recommend checking carefully before incurring any large costs.

Sadly, many more companies are cutting back to ever cheaper policies with larger exclusions and copays, smaller lifetime maximums, longer waits (several years before they even cover you at all), and do heath history screenings and simply do not hire someone whose family health history would increase the health insurance costs.

Be pleased you have found one of the ever more rare gems in the manure pile.

This is personal insurance--I am direct pay, not through any company, as I am self employed, and have been since before I got this policy. At one point in my reply, I mentioned that a client of mine wanted to get me on her company's insurance policy, since she was sure it must be much cheaper. When I did the research into the policy that she was offering her employees, it turned out that my policy had better coverage for only about $25 more per month. Maybe you should look in to Blue Cross, or start recommending it to others?

Shari

BirdGuano
12-29-2008, 02:52 AM
I lease myself back to my company through an employee leasing agency.

They pool all of their "employees" worldwide, and are able to offer some pretty good medical coverage, along with dental, disability, pre-tax medical and child care accounts, and a 401K at reasonable rates.

The medical is also group coverage, so there isn't the problem with pre-existing conditions or
refusal for a past hang-nail.

You may want to look into employee leasing.

It wasn't that much of a premium, and they handle all of the HR legal BS, as well as W2 witholding taxes, and all of the IRS/State reporting nightmares.

sandyd
12-29-2008, 12:03 PM
BG....ummm....can you give us the names of a couple? Google gives me way too many that are Temp agencies....


Thanks....

BirdGuano
12-29-2008, 01:55 PM
BG....ummm....can you give us the names of a couple? Google gives me way too many that are Temp agencies....


Thanks....

Google is still your friend:

http://www.peo7.com/

sandyd
12-29-2008, 02:28 PM
Thanks....I finally found this site but wasn't sure if it's what I wanted:

http://www.maxexchange.com/california/new_categories/employment_agencies.htm

BirdGuano
12-29-2008, 07:47 PM
Thanks....I finally found this site but wasn't sure if it's what I wanted:

http://www.maxexchange.com/california/new_categories/employment_agencies.htm

Stick with the ones who have done it a while like TriNet.
http://www.trinet.com/

ltow
12-29-2008, 09:10 PM
prediction - they forget to pay the bill and the intertubes goes dead

BirdGuano
12-29-2008, 09:40 PM
prediction - they forget to pay the bill and the intertubes goes dead

Actually there is a good article in WiReD about this.

The social networking companies won't be able to pay their
co-location and bandwidth bills next year.

Poof... buh bye social networking sites.

What will the teenagers do ??
:D