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View Full Version : Jobs Picture MUCH Better than Expected


DReynolds
12-31-2008, 10:30 AM
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/081231/business_us_usa_economy_jobless.html

Jobless claims drop by much more than expected
Wednesday December 31, 8:59 am ET


By Alister Bull
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits slumped 94,000 last week, government data on Wednesday showed, but seasonal factors were likely behind this unexpectedly large decline with the labor market remaining very soft.

Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 492,000 in the week ended Dec 27 from an unrevised 586,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said. It was the lowest reading for initial claims since the week ended November 1, 2008, and the steepest decline since 1992.

Prices on U.S. government bond extended losses on the larger-than-expected drop in claims.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast 565,000 new claims as the country's year-long recession continued to chill employment, and a separate reading on so-called continued claims hit a 26-year high.

dyrt
12-31-2008, 11:07 AM
Too soon, too soon. Good news stories are supposed to wait until after January 20th.

Fattail
12-31-2008, 12:27 PM
Haven't you seen the pictures of Obama without his shirt on? Who wouldn't want to go out and work after seeing that. I know I was inspired. If only Caroline Kennedy could be given that senate seat, then we could all sit around googledy eyed and talk about hope and change, and camelot until we were blue in the face. There's just not enough happy talk. We need the MSM to help change the mood of those unempoloyed workers and reluctant stock market investors with some happy talk.

Holiday numbers are more likely to be skewed one way or another also, i wouldn't put much stock in it.

I'm hoping to sell into the Obama rally. More happy talk please.

BirdGuano
12-31-2008, 12:50 PM
The U3, with it's birth-death model, shows a spike in construction employment and finance, which is complete and utter BS.

The U6 is a more accurate number, and one which reporters don't report on.


December 5, 2008, 10:50 am
Broader Unemployment Rate Hits 12.5%

The headline unemployment rate of 6.7% in November isn’t the only one the Labor Department reports. They also break the rate down by age, gender, ethnicity, and education.

And in table A-12, on page 19 of the report, they also share their broadest estimate of the unemployment rate, which includes the total unemployed (the standard rate) plus “all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons… plus all marginally attached workers.”

That rate (called “U-6”) in November? A whopping 12.5%.

The U-6 rate only has comparable history back to 1994, but November’s rate is by far the highest since then and the swift rise to that elevated level also far surpasses similar moves during the recessions in 2001 and 1990-91. Previously, the Labor Dept. kept a similar gauge with history back to 1970, showing a high of 14% unemployment during the deep recession in 1982.

The U-6 rate rose sharply in November, from 11.8% in October, and is markedly higher now than the 8.4% recorded in November 2007.

“It was already clear that this would be ‘one of the worst recessions’ in the post-war period,” said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight. “After today’s horrendous November employment report, it is beginning to look like the worst.” –Kelly Evans

Permalink | Trackback URL: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/12/05/broader-unemployment-rate-hits-125/trackback/

rryan
12-31-2008, 01:10 PM
If there were qualified people available and I felt up to it I could hire anywhere from 3-6 right now.

Not going to as we are really just overdoing it right now as it is and I intend to see what is goign to happen with the tax situation before i do anythign to increase our present income.

I know several other people/companies around the country hiring as well and despite being from various businesses lines all are well above average paying jobs.

I have to agree with Dyrt on this---there is money to be made most everywhere right now for those who can/will make their own opportunities.

BirdGuano
12-31-2008, 01:15 PM
I have to agree with Dyrt on this---there is money to be made most everywhere right now for those who can/will make their own opportunities.

This has always been the case throughout history.

Fiddlerdave
12-31-2008, 02:57 PM
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/081231/business_us_usa_economy_jobless.html

Jobless claims drop by much more than expected
Wednesday December 31, 8:59 am ET


By Alister Bull
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits slumped 94,000 last week, government data on Wednesday showed, but seasonal factors were likely behind this unexpectedly large decline with the labor market remaining very soft.

Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 492,000 in the week ended Dec 27 from an unrevised 586,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said. It was the lowest reading for initial claims since the week ended November 1, 2008, and the steepest decline since 1992.

Prices on U.S. government bond extended losses on the larger-than-expected drop in claims.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast 565,000 new claims as the country's year-long recession continued to chill employment, and a separate reading on so-called continued claims hit a 26-year high. Too soon, too soon. Good news stories are supposed to wait until after January 20th. Let's see, its Christmas week and ALL claims people are off at least 1.5 days, and probably 1/3 of unemployment workers are off all week on vacation. Close to the same amount will be doing the same this week.

Not to mention many employers would avoid laying off at Chirstmas just to avoid the PR hit on their public image.

Yet, unemployment claims reduction last week is SOMEHOW a valid comment on the economy. Sure thing, Baghdad Bob! :lol:

I suppose we should keep the party hats out because we will shortly be seeing banner headline numbers on TREMENDOUSLY REDUCED FORECLOSURES!!, which of course to the pollyannas portends the end of the housing fall, and NOT the fact that lenders have done a 90 day moratorium on forclosures (just long enough to get into the Obama administration).

I have to agree with Dyrt on this---there is money to be made most everywhere right now for those who can/will make their own opportunities.

I don't blame the financial players for spouting unmitigated carp like this to get another round of sucker-buying to profit off , but it does astound me that anyone takes it seriously. But they do. Enjoy the sucker rallies. But remember the problems that come from believing your own BS.

sandyd
12-31-2008, 03:00 PM
Haven't you seen the pictures of Obama without his shirt on? Who wouldn't want to go out and work after seeing that. I know I was inspired. If only Caroline Kennedy could be given that senate seat, then we could all sit around googledy eyed and talk about hope and change, and camelot until we were blue in the face. There's just not enough happy talk. We need the MSM to help change the mood of those unempoloyed workers and reluctant stock market investors with some happy talk.

Holiday numbers are more likely to be skewed one way or another also, i wouldn't put much stock in it.

I'm hoping to sell into the Obama rally. More happy talk please.

It would help if Caroline did some topless shoots as well. :lol: