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A.T. Hagan
09-01-2008, 03:38 PM
The Hurricane Conveyor is working overtime this year. This one will be Ike if he develops enough.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5_sm2+gif/144313W_sm.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/011443.shtml
000
WTNT34 KNHC 011443
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM AST MON SEP 01 2008

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS HALF WAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE
39.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1470 MILES...2365 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...17.6 N...39.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09.gif

Ever get the feeling we live in a shooting gallery?

.....Alan.

BirdGuano
09-01-2008, 03:40 PM
No-like Ike.

flourbug
09-01-2008, 03:44 PM
Ike is hot on the heels of Hanna. Wonder if he'll follow the same path.

Renegade
09-01-2008, 04:24 PM
Now he could really mess up my schedule with his timing....he needs to be a fish....

A.T. Hagan
09-01-2008, 05:33 PM
Didn't waste any time, did he?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/012041.shtml
000
WTNT34 KNHC 012041
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM AST MON SEP 01 2008

...IKE...THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...FORMS OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
STORM IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.6
WEST OR ABOUT 1400 MILES...2250 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IKE
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...17.7 N...40.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Renegade
09-02-2008, 06:07 AM
Tropical Storm Public Advisory


Statement as of 5:00 am AST on September 02, 2008


...Ike moving westward across the open tropical Atlantic Ocean...

At 500 am AST...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Ike was located
near latitude 18.6 north...longitude 43.1 west or about 1235 miles
...1985 km...east of the Leeward Islands.


Ike is moving toward the west near 15 mph...24 km/hr...and a motion
toward the west or west-northwest at about the same speed is
expected during the next two days.


Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next two days.


Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km
from the center.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.


Repeating the 500 am AST position...18.6 N...43.1 W. Movement
toward...west near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 am AST.


$$
Forecaster Landsea/Pasch

Renegade
09-02-2008, 06:08 AM
Tropical Storm Ike Discussion Number 4


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 02, 2008


the structure of Ike has not changed significantly this evening with
substantial convective banding embedded in a large surface
circulation. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB remain
3.0 or 45 kt...which is the current intensity.

An AMSU pass at 0020z provided some confidence in estimating a track
at 280 degrees at 13 kt. The tropical storm will be moving briskly
off toward the west or west-northwest under the influence of a deep
layered subtropical ridge to its north. As the cutoff low curently
south of Nova Scotia kicks out to the northeast...the subtropical
ridge should retrograde toward the west over the next few days. A
motion westward across the subtropical North Atlantic along about
20n would be somewhat unusual...but is supported by our most
reliable track models. The track model guidance is in a relatively
tight cluster slightly to the south of the previous model runs.
This track forecast is a blend between the more southerly model
consensus and the more northerly previous official forecast.


The intensity prediction is more problematic. In the near
term...Ike is in a conducive dynamical environment with low
vertical shear and divergence aloft...but the thermodynamics are
not as favorable for development with only slightly warm SSTs and a
pocket of low-level dry air to its south. In the longer term...the
ocean temperatures should warm to 29c...but the shear should
increase as flow between an upper low east of Ike and the upper
ridge northwest of Ike is predicted to produce 30 kt
northeasterlies. Gradual intensification is indicated through the
period...which reflects the consensus of the SHIPS and lgem models
calling for a minimal hurricane...and the GFDL and HWRF models
which suggest a much stronger cyclone. This intensity forecast is
nearly the same as provided in the previous advisory.




Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 02/0900z 18.6n 43.1w 45 kt
12hr VT 02/1800z 19.0n 45.3w 55 kt
24hr VT 03/0600z 19.6n 48.2w 60 kt
36hr VT 03/1800z 20.2n 51.3w 70 kt
48hr VT 04/0600z 20.8n 54.3w 75 kt
72hr VT 05/0600z 21.5n 60.5w 80 kt
96hr VT 06/0600z 21.5n 66.5w 85 kt
120hr VT 07/0600z 21.5n 72.0w 90 kt


$$
forecaster Landsea/Pasch

Aleph Null
09-02-2008, 08:40 AM
This is the storm I'm worried about, not Hannah so much at the moment. I think this thing is going to be a serious threat to South Florida and possibly the Gulf as well.

a0

Renegade
09-03-2008, 07:05 AM
Tropical Storm Public Advisory


Statement as of 5:00 am AST on September 03, 2008

...Ike continues west-northwestward...has not strengthened
recently...

At 500 am AST...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Ike was located
near latitude 20.6 north...longitude 49.6 west or about 835 miles...
1340 km...east-northeast of the Leeward Islands.


Ike is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr...and
a gradual turn toward the west is expected over the next 48 hours.

Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain
near 65 mph...100 km/hr...with higher gusts. Ike is forecast to
become a hurricane later today...and continue to strengthen over the
next couple of days.


Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km
from the center.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb...29.41 inches.


Repeating the 500 am AST position...20.6 N...49.6 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...65
mph. Minimum central pressure...996 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 am AST.


$$
Forecaster Pasch

Renegade
09-03-2008, 07:05 AM
Tropical Storm Ike Discussion Number 8


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 03, 2008


Ike's cloud pattern has not changed significantly in organization
and upper-level outflow remains fairly strong around the
storm...with an outflow channel developing over the southeast
quadrant. The tropical cyclone continues to lack a well-defined
inner core and...until this inner core becomes established...
strengthening will be slow. However...once an eyewall becomes
defined the rate of intensification should increase. The only
obvious impediment to strengthening is an increase in northeasterly
shear around 48 hours as forecast by the global models. The
official intensity forecast is the same as in the previous
advisory. This is near the high end of much of our numerical
guidance...although the HWRF shows a significantly stronger
hurricane near the end of the period.

There has been some slight acceleration and the latest geostationary
satellite and microwave fixes require a bit of a northward
adjustment to the track. Initial motion is around 285/16. The
track forecast for the next 1-2 days seems straightforward as a
subtropical ridge to the north of Ike continues to push the storm
toward the west-northwest and west. Later in the forecast
period...there is more uncertainty. The global models depict a
building of the mid-tropospheric ridge to the north and northwest
of Ike in 3 to 5 days...and this would force a turn toward the
left. However the track models differ on how much the tropical
cyclone will turn. The GFDL and deep-layer BAM are the
southernmost and bring Ike over Hispaniola whereas the U.K. Met
office global model...which is also a credible model...takes the
cyclone to much higher latitudes. Aside from a slight northward
adjustment to account for the northward shift of the recent
track...the official forecast is quite similar to the previous one
and lies near the latest dynamical track model consensus.


Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 03/0900z 20.6n 49.6w 55 kt
12hr VT 03/1800z 21.3n 52.2w 65 kt
24hr VT 04/0600z 22.2n 55.1w 70 kt
36hr VT 04/1800z 22.8n 58.0w 75 kt
48hr VT 05/0600z 23.2n 60.8w 80 kt
72hr VT 06/0600z 23.0n 66.0w 85 kt
96hr VT 07/0600z 22.5n 71.0w 90 kt
120hr VT 08/0600z 22.5n 76.0w 95 kt


$$
forecaster Pasch

A.T. Hagan
09-03-2008, 02:03 PM
It is beginning to look like Ike may be thinking of shooting the Straits. Could be bad if he doesn't tear himself up on Cuba before getting loose in the Gulf.

.....Alan.

drummagick
09-03-2008, 08:06 PM
It is beginning to look like Ike may be thinking of shooting the Straits. Could be bad if he doesn't tear himself up on Cuba before getting loose in the Gulf.

.....Alan.

Do you mean 'threading the needle'? I just looked at the 5 days forecast and saw that.

Ike is a hurricane now.

Jody
09-03-2008, 08:07 PM
Hurricane Ike is now a 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Nightowl
09-03-2008, 11:24 PM
Make that a Category 4. Man, that thing just blew up, didn't it?

APNewsAlert (http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ijDA5bgxiHlTvS_r-SSjskS1Tq1wD92VL6G80)
9 minutes ago
MIAMI (AP) — National Hurricane Center says Hurricane Ike strengthens to Category 4 with 135-mph winds.

Renegade
09-03-2008, 11:26 PM
Tropical Storm Public Advisory


Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on September 03, 2008


...Ike becomes an extremely dangerous category four hurricane...

At 1100 PM AST...0300z...the center of Hurricane Ike was located
near latitude 22.1 north...longitude 54.1 west or about 610 miles...
980 km...northeast of the Leeward Islands.


Ike is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue through early
Thursday...followed by a turn to the west on Thursday night and
Friday...taking Ike over the open waters of the west-central
Atlantic during the next couple of days. It is too early to
determine what if any land areas might eventually be affected by
Ike.


Maximum sustained winds have increased to near near 135 mph...215
km/hr...with higher gusts. Ike is an extremely dangerous category
four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some
fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next day or
two.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160
miles...260 km.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb...27.99 inches.


Repeating the 1100 PM AST position...22.1 N...54.1 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135
mph. Minimum central pressure...948 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 am AST.


$$
Forecaster Brown

Renegade
09-03-2008, 11:27 PM
Hurricane Ike Discussion Number 12


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 03, 2008


Ike has rapidly intensified this evening. An eye became apparent in
conventional satellite imagery shortly after 2100 UTC. Since that
time the eye has become more distinct with a ring of very cold
clouds tops surrounding it. The latest Dvorak data T-numbers were
t6.0 and raw ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS have averaged t6.2 since
2045 UTC. Based on these estimates the initial intensity is set
at 115 kt...making Ike a category four hurricane. Some additional
strengthening is possible during the next 12 hours or so...this
will largely be controlled by eye-wall replacement cycles. However
both the global models and SHIPS guidance indicate increasing
northeasterly shear in about 24 hours and it is difficult to
predict how an intense hurricane like Ike will be affected by this
shear. The NHC intensity forecast indicates some weakening between
24-72 hours due to the shear...but not as much as indicated by the
SHIPS guidance. At days 4 and 5...it appears that the shear will
decrease so re-strengthening is predicted at that time.


The initial motion estimate is 295/15. The track guidance agrees
on a continued west-northwestward motion during the next 24 hours.
During the middle portion of the forecast period...a mid-level
ridge is expected to build to the north of the cyclone...and the
models unanimously respond by turning Ike west-southwestward. The
lingering question that remains at the longer range is when Ike
will move around the western periphery of the ridge. The
model spread remains quite large at days 4 and 5. The GFDL is on
the left side of the guidance with a track near Hispaniola and
eastern Cuba...while the GFS and UKMET show a position to the
northeast of the Bahamas. For now...the official track is between
these possible solutions and is in best agreement with the
HWRF...the 12z ECMWF...and the model consensus.


Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 04/0300z 22.1n 54.1w 115 kt
12hr VT 04/1200z 23.1n 56.2w 115 kt
24hr VT 05/0000z 24.0n 58.7w 105 kt
36hr VT 05/1200z 24.3n 61.0w 105 kt
48hr VT 06/0000z 23.8n 63.6w 100 kt
72hr VT 07/0000z 22.5n 68.5w 100 kt
96hr VT 08/0000z 22.5n 72.0w 110 kt
120hr VT 09/0000z 24.0n 75.5w 115 kt


$$
forecaster Brown

Renegade
09-04-2008, 06:58 AM
Thu Sep 4, 2008 5:06am EDT


By Joseph Guyler Delva

PORT-AU-PRINCE (Reuters) - Hurricane Ike strengthened rapidly into an fiercely dangerous Category 4 hurricane in the open Atlantic on Wednesday and Tropical Storm Hanna intensified to a lesser degree as it swirled over the Bahamas toward the southeast U.S. Coast.

Ike posed no immediate threat to land but strengthened explosively, growing in the space of a few hours from a tropical storm to an intense Category 4 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson intensity scale.

Ike had top sustained winds near 145 mph (230 kph) as it swept across the open waters of the west-central Atlantic 550 miles (885 km) northeast of the Leeward Islands, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. It was moving west-northwest near 17 mph (28 kph).

It was forecast to head for the southern Bahamas early next week but it was too early to tell whether it would threaten land, the forecasters said.

It was also too soon to say whether Ike would threaten U.S. oil and natural gas producers in the Gulf of Mexico.

The hurricane center's Web site, with updates and graphics, is at www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml.

Hanna's torrential rains had already submerged parts of Haiti, stranding residents on rooftops and prompting President Rene Preval to warn of an "extraordinary catastrophe" to rival a storm that killed more than 3,000 people in the flood-prone Caribbean country four years ago.

Hanna was forecast to move over the central and northern Bahamas on Thursday, strengthening back into a hurricane with winds of at least 74 mph (119 kph) before hitting the U.S. coast near the North Carolina-Virginia border on Saturday.

The government of the Bahamas had ended a hurricane warning for the northwestern part of the islands, meaning a tropical storm warning was now in effect for all of the Bahamas and for the Turks and Caicos Islands, the hurricane center said.

'TENACIOUS CYCLONE'

Hanna has been a "tenacious tropical cyclone" that is forecast to regain hurricane force in a day or two but possibly sooner, it said. "A hurricane watch may be required for a portion of the southeastern United States coast early Thursday," the center said.

Tropical Storm Josephine also marched across the Atlantic on a westward course behind Ike but it had begun to weaken.

The burst of storm activity follows Hurricane Gustav, which slammed into Louisiana near New Orleans on Monday after a course that also took it through Haiti, where it killed more than 75 people.

The U.S. government has forecast 14 to 18 tropical storms will form during the six-month season that began on June 1, more than the historical average of 10. Josephine was already the 10th of the year, forming before the statistical peak of the season on September 10.

The record-busting 2005 season, which included deadly Hurricane Katrina, had 28 storms.

In Haiti, officials were still counting the scores of people killed by Gustav when Hanna struck the impoverished nation on Monday night.

Authorities said Hanna caused flooding and mudslides that killed at least 61 people across Haiti, including 22 in the low-lying port of Gonaives. The death toll was expected to rise as floodwaters receded and rescuers reached remote areas.

"We are in a really catastrophic situation," said Preval, who planned to hold emergency talks with representatives of international donor countries to appeal for aid.

"It is believed that compared to Jeanne, Hanna could cause even more damage," he said, referring to a storm that sent floodwaters and mud cascading into Gonaives and other parts of Haiti's north and northwest in September 2004, killing more than 3,000 people.

Gonaives residents were still stranded on their rooftops two days after the floodwaters rose and the government did not know the fate of those who had been in hospitals and prisons.

"There are a lot of people on rooftops and there are prisoners that we cannot guard," Preval said.

Hanna had hovered off Haiti's coast since Monday, drowning crops in a desperately poor nation already struggling with food shortages. It also triggered widespread flooding in the neighboring Dominican Republic.

The Miami-based hurricane center said it was too early to say where Ike might go, after it churns through the Caribbean, but the storm has drawn the attention of energy companies running the 4,000 offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico that provide the United States with a quarter of its crude oil and 15 percent of its natural gas.

By late Wednesday, Josephine was swirling over the far eastern Atlantic about 465 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. It was moving west but had begun to weaken, with top sustained winds dropping to 60 mph (95 kph).

(Additional reporting by Tom Brown in Miami; writing by Jane Sutton; editing by Todd Eastham and Philip Barbara)
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN036933920080904?sp=true

Renegade
09-04-2008, 06:59 AM
Tropical Storm Public Advisory


Statement as of 5:00 am AST on September 04, 2008

...Ike even stronger as it continues west-northwestward...

At 500 am AST...0900z...the center of Hurricane Ike was located near
latitude 22.7 north...longitude 55.8 west or about 550 miles...885
km...northeast of the Leeward Islands.


Ike is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr...and
a gradual turn toward the west and west-southwest is expected over
the next 48 hours. On this track the hurricane will continue to
move over the open waters of the west-central Atlantic during the
next couple of days. It is too early to determine what land areas
might eventually be affected by Ike.

Satellite images indicate that Ike has intensified some more.
Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 145 mph...230
km/hr...with higher gusts. This is an extremely dangerous category
four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. It is
expected that Ike will maintain category four or category three
intensity over the next 48 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140
miles...220 km.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb...27.61 inches.

Repeating the 500 am AST position...22.7 N...55.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...145
mph. Minimum central pressure...935 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 am AST.


$$
Forecaster Pasch

Renegade
09-04-2008, 06:59 AM
Hurricane Ike Discussion Number 13


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 04, 2008

Satellite images indicate that Ike has intensified further...with
the eye embedded in even colder cloud tops than before. The latest
Dvorak data T-numbers are up to 6.5 which supports an intensity of
125 kt...and this is used for the current advisory. In such
intense hurricanes...fluctuations in strength due to inner-core
evolutions such as eyewall replacements are nearly impossible to
predict. However...the SHIPS model shows over 30 kt of vertical
shear on Ike within the next 24-36 hours due to a strengthening
upper-level high to the northwest of the hurricane. This
large-scale environmental influence should induce some weakening...
and that is what is indicated in the official wind speed forecast.
Later on in the forecast period...some re-strengthening is probable
as the shear weakens and the thermodynamic environment is expected
to be favorable. The official forecast might be conservative but
it reflects our lack of skill in forecasting tropical cyclone
intensity in 3-5 days.

Ike continues to move west-northwestward or around 290/15. There
has been little change to the track forecast or forecast reasoning.
A deep-layer high is depicted by the global models to build to the
northwest of the hurricane within the next couple of days. This
would likely cause the heading of Ike to Bend westward to
west-southwestward. Late in the forecast period it is expected
that Ike will have passed the center of the high...and turn back
toward the west and west-northwest. The big questions is how the
hurricane responds to the weakness in the mid-tropospheric ridge
over the southeastern U.S. Around day 5. Looking at the various
track models in this time frame...we see that the ECMWF is the
westernmost and the GFS is the northeasternmost. The official
track forecast lies between these extremes and leans toward the
ECMWF. This is a little to the left of the dynamical model
consensus and quite similar to the previous NHC forecast.

Because of the uncertainties in 4- and 5-day track forecasts...it is
still too early to say what land areas are likely to be impacted by
this hurricane.


Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 04/0900z 22.7n 55.8w 125 kt
12hr VT 04/1800z 23.5n 57.7w 125 kt
24hr VT 05/0600z 24.0n 60.2w 115 kt
36hr VT 05/1800z 24.0n 62.6w 110 kt
48hr VT 06/0600z 23.4n 64.9w 110 kt
72hr VT 07/0600z 22.5n 69.5w 115 kt
96hr VT 08/0600z 23.0n 73.5w 115 kt
120hr VT 09/0600z 25.0n 76.5w 115 kt


$$
forecaster Pasch

Capt Tripps
09-04-2008, 09:53 AM
Ike is really worrisome and I don't see any way it is not going to have an impact on Florida. We'll just have to wait and see how bad.

-Tripps in Orlando

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_5day.gif

A.T. Hagan
09-04-2008, 09:56 AM
Well, it looks like he's going to pound the Bahamas then recurve out to sea. But he's still too far out yet to really know.

.....Alan.

Renegade
09-04-2008, 09:56 AM
hmm...a fellow Floridian...learn something new everyday....

and I agree...although the track they are betting on is preferable to me than it shooting the Straights...

Head'n Home
09-04-2008, 12:00 PM
Alan, I live near you and am wondering if you have taken any special precautions to protect your house from hurricane winds? I've been here for 12 years and the vast majority of folks hardly close their windows for a storm.

We have lots of trees (pine) and not on the coast. The main item for me is to do something about our two car wide garage door as it is the cause of 80% of home failures.

Anything special that you do at your place?

Thanks.

Renegade
09-04-2008, 12:04 PM
dang at the Floridians!!

Sounds like we need to have a meet and greet on the sandpile! :D

In between storms, of course...:cool:

A.T. Hagan
09-04-2008, 12:18 PM
Alan, I live near you and am wondering if you have taken any special precautions to protect your house from hurricane winds? I've been here for 12 years and the vast majority of folks hardly close their windows for a storm.

We have lots of trees (pine) and not on the coast. The main item for me is to do something about our two car wide garage door as it is the cause of 80% of home failures.

Anything special that you do at your place?

Thanks. In 2004 I boarded most of the windows on my home as we were expecting Charley to hit us with 90+mph winds. He did his last minute dodge to the east and we didn't get anything from him at all. Frances and Jeanne did hit us with strong tropical storm / weak Category One force winds and for a time Ivan was predicted to make landfall not very far away so after I took them down once I put them back up and left them up until the coast was clear. So far as anyone can remember I am the only person to have ever boarded the windows in my family and we've been here for over a century now.

Chances are pretty good that unless we are predicted to get strong Category One winds or higher I won't board my windows up again. A weak Cat One or Tropical Storm we'll leave them uncovered. Of course we do police up everything that we can that will blow away. We keep tarps, fasteners, builders plastic, chain saw and all that sort of thing for emergency repairs. If you can get on it right away to prevent more water from coming in you can many times keep damage from becoming catastrophic. Whether you'll be able to do that depends on the wind speed outside and your ability to work in it.

Having some plan to reinforce that garage door is a good idea. I've never had to do one myself so I can't advise you much about it, but you are right they are a weakness in high winds. Lots of square inches for the amount of anchoring they have. I just did a quckie Google on "hurricanes" and "garage doors" and there seems to be a number of resources available. Here's a likely looking one: http://www.hurricane.com/hurricane-garage-doors.php

If you have trees that are leaning towards the house, or some that are weak then I'd look into having them removed. Of course there's a tradeoff here too because trees make a major difference in air conditioning costs in the summer time so one has to make judgements about how far one wants to go to protect against trees fallling on the home versus how much extra you are willing to pay in electricity costs if you do.

Fortunately for us as hurricanes go in Florida if you're in the northern end of the peninsula and in the interior we historically do not have the same danger from hurricanes as the more southerly coastal regions and the Panhandle. Not to say it can't happpen here, but historically we catch fewer storms directly than other areas of the state.

.....Alan.

Head'n Home
09-04-2008, 12:35 PM
Thanks for the quick reply. I am having someone call today about the garage door. Can no longer do much myself, unfortuantely.

Now back to the thread. Ike does indeed look like the worst of the bunch. I have been plotting the position of each storm on a Streets program from MS and am surprised by the meandering of Hanna and Gustav in their early stages. They went north, south, east and west in jerky motions.

Ike, stay away from my door!

Zazzu
09-04-2008, 01:09 PM
dang at the Floridians!!

Sounds like we need to have a meet and greet on the sandpile! :D

In between storms, of course...:cool:

There does seem to be a lot of us :yes:

nmp
09-04-2008, 01:25 PM
As far as the garage door I only have a single and what I used to do was put a 2x6 vertical in the center with another board at the top making a "T" and screwing it in at the top with lag bolts. Then I would carefully put the bumper of the car in the garage right up against the lower part of the 2x6 and put some screws through the 2x6 into the door panels. I can't fit a car in there anymore so I really need to find a new solution.

ezrider
09-04-2008, 06:57 PM
Ike is currently a Cat4 hope it will lose some of it's power in the next few days :beer:

ezrider
09-04-2008, 06:59 PM
this is a pretty cool interactive map

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/storm/multimedia/photos_popups/stormpulse/big_map.html

flourbug
09-04-2008, 07:05 PM
Everyone on CE is a Floridian now.

TheStripey1
09-04-2008, 07:52 PM
raises paw...

uhhhhhhhh... is California now considered a suburb of Florida?

:beer:

Pablo Escobar
09-04-2008, 08:04 PM
The thread title could be updated to Cat 4 storm Ike...

A.T. Hagan
09-04-2008, 08:51 PM
The thread title could be updated to Cat 4 storm Ike... It won't let me change it. Maybe one of the mods will do it for us.

.....Alan.

MomCares
09-04-2008, 10:16 PM
The thread title could be updated to Cat 4 storm Ike...
Nope -- I vote we change Ike back into a mild Tropical Storm instead. Preferably by Saturday. ;)


MomCares

Tucker
09-05-2008, 01:42 AM
Just curious since I've never visited South Florida - what specific concerns exist for a strong hurricane striking the Miami area? (I know. Bite my tongue.) By now, I think everyone knows about the levee issue with New Orleans. Some forecasts are showing Ike as a category 3 hitting Miami. Do they have a levee system? What are the major specifc issues in that area?

M Fox
09-05-2008, 04:36 AM
Just curious since I've never visited South Florida - what specific concerns exist for a strong hurricane striking the Miami area? (I know. Bite my tongue.) By now, I think everyone knows about the levee issue with New Orleans. Some forecasts are showing Ike as a category 3 hitting Miami. Do they have a levee system? What are the major specifc issues in that area?

Beach erosion is a big problem. When I was working I was in contact with someone in Fort Lauderdale after Katrina and Wilma went through - many were without power for up to 3 weeks and a lot of office buildings sustained damage, that left them non-enterable for several weeks. There are no levees that I know of in the Miami area.

M Fox
09-05-2008, 04:37 AM
dang at the Floridians!!

Sounds like we need to have a meet and greet on the sandpile! :D

In between storms, of course...:cool:

:laugh: I've thought the same thing for awhile, now!

M Fox
09-05-2008, 04:40 AM
this is a pretty cool interactive map

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/storm/multimedia/photos_popups/stormpulse/big_map.html

yeah, it's pretty cool, alright, but it has Ike due to hit Miami at 8pm Tuesday and then it looks like it will head for Tampa!
Fortunately, it's early enough that Ike could go somewhere else. :yes:

Renegade
09-05-2008, 06:56 AM
:laugh: I've thought the same thing for awhile, now!

Sounds like someone who is centrally located ought to put one together! :beer:

Renegade
09-05-2008, 06:56 AM
Tropical Storm Public Advisory


Statement as of 5:00 am AST on September 05, 2008


...Major Hurricane Ike headed westward...


interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern and
central Bahamas should closely monitor the progress of Ike.


For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.


At 500 am AST...0900z...the eye of Hurricane Ike was located near
latitude 23.7 north...longitude 61.0 west or about 460 miles...740
km...north of the Leeward Islands and about 660 miles...1065 km...
east-northeast of Grand Turk island.


Ike is moving toward the west near 15 mph...24 km/hr. A slight turn
toward the west-southwest is forecast tonight or early on
Saturday...with a turn back to the west expected by Sunday. On
this track...Ike could be near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.


Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph...205 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ike is a dangerous category three hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some weakening is forecast during
the next day or two...but Ike is still forecast to be a major
hurricane in a couple of days.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105
miles...165 km.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb...27.91 inches.


Repeating the 500 am AST position...23.7 N...61.0 W. Movement
toward...west near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...125 mph.
Minimum central pressure...945 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 am AST.


$$
Forecaster Knabb

Renegade
09-05-2008, 06:56 AM
Hurricane Ike Discussion Number 17


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 05, 2008


the eye of Ike has lost a little of its definition...and cloud tops
of the eyewall have warmed somewhat. Dvorak T-numbers have come
down slightly and the initial intensity is set to 110 kt.
Microwave imagery just received from the AMSR-E does not reveal any
significant deterioration of the inner core structure...nor does it
depict concentric eyewalls...so rapid weakening does not appear to
be about to occur. That imagery does show some erosion of the
northwestern eyewall...and given the northeasterly shear...the
official forecast calls for some weakening in the short term.
Global models forecast the shear to lessen beyond 24 hours...as Ike
remains over waters near 29 celsius...so restrengthening is then
forecast. The HWRF forecasts Ike to be a major hurricane at days
3-5...but the GFDL does not since its track GOES over Cuba.
Meanwhile the SHIPS and lgem forecast a weaker hurricane...although
the lgem prediction appears more realistic since it does a better
job of taking into account the eventual lessening of the shear.
Since the official forecast track remains over water through 96
hours...a blend of the HWRF and lgem seems to be reasonable...and
Ike is forecast to be a major hurricane at longer ranges. The only
reason for the weakening at the end is that the five-Day Point is
over land...which is not a certainty.


The mid-level ridge has settled in directly north of Ike...as the
high-latitude trough departs Atlantic Canada...and the hurricane is
now headed due westward or 270/13. Next to depart the western
Atlantic scene will be Hanna...and all dynamical models say that in
its place the ridge will extend southwestward to Florida in a
couple of days. A key unknown for the 3-5 day forecast is how
strong that ridge will be and how long it will remain intact. In
general during the last day or two the models have been trending
toward the ridge staying in place longer...resulting in tracks
maintaining the generally westward motion longer and delaying any
potential turn to the north. That trend has continued somewhat on
this cycle...but the consensus has only shifted west slightly at
days 4 and 5. The new official track forecast is almost identical
to the previous one through 72 hours...is just nudged toward the
consensus beyond that time...and gives the most weight to the GFS
and HWRF. It cannot be said enough that five-day track forecasts
can have significant errors...and combined with the fact that the
model spread is still notable beyond 72 hours...one should not
focus on the exact track.




Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 05/0900z 23.7n 61.0w 110 kt
12hr VT 05/1800z 23.7n 63.0w 105 kt
24hr VT 06/0600z 23.3n 65.6w 95 kt
36hr VT 06/1800z 22.8n 68.1w 100 kt
48hr VT 07/0600z 22.5n 70.6w 105 kt
72hr VT 08/0600z 23.0n 75.0w 115 kt
96hr VT 09/0600z 24.0n 78.5w 115 kt
120hr VT 10/0600z 26.0n 81.0w 95 kt...inland


$$
forecaster Knabb

drummagick
09-05-2008, 08:28 AM
I was just looking at the computer models for Ike, looks like a drunk hurricane on some of them. All zig-zaggy.

The five day forecast has taken a more southerly route than it was when I looked yesterday morning.

A.T. Hagan
09-05-2008, 12:41 PM
Well, we're back to him looking like he may shoot the Straits again. Sigh...

.....Alan.

BirdGuano
09-05-2008, 01:16 PM
Some forecasts are showing Ike as a category 3 hitting Miami. Do they have a levee system? What are the major specifc issues in that area?

High population concentration
Hard to evacuate
Barely above sea level on a good day, and definitely not above storm surge level
No levee system or barrier swamp to protect it


I had to cancel a business trip to Miami because of this thing.

Tucker
09-05-2008, 02:02 PM
Thanks, BG and MF for the insight into Miami issues. I hope Miami is spared but someone is going to get hammered by it.

kaneohegirl
09-05-2008, 02:49 PM
I was looking at one of the images they have up on hurricane.com of hannah/ike... it looks like the tail end of hannah could feed right into Ike... but ummm I dont know if thats how it would work but its a interesting pic...

http://www.hurricane.com/current-advisory/goes-gifs/HUWV.JPG

A.T. Hagan
09-05-2008, 03:15 PM
We've gotten a trifle of rain off that tail of Hannah that's crossing the north/central peninsula. No wind or anything, just cloudy weather and a bit of rain.

.....Alan.

BirdGuano
09-05-2008, 03:31 PM
Thanks, BG and MF for the insight into Miami issues. I hope Miami is spared but someone is going to get hammered by it.

Historical Perspective:
http://www.hurricaneville.com/1926_hurricane.html

Today, the Miami and Fort Lauderdale areas remain among the most vulnerable locations to a major hurricane along the East Coast of the United States. In October, 2005, the Gold Coast area of Florida including Fort Lauderdale was hit hard by Hurricane Wilma, a storm which was at one point, the strongest storm on record. It ended being the worst hurricane to hit that part of Florida in fifty-five years..

BirdGuano
09-05-2008, 05:28 PM
CRAP

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_model.gif

penguinzee
09-05-2008, 05:33 PM
Crap, indeed.

But let's see how this plays out over the weekend before we all start flying off the handle...

We should have a pretty solid idea by Sunday night...

Franc (penguinzee)

BirdGuano
09-05-2008, 05:34 PM
Crap, indeed.

But let's see how this plays out over the weekend before we all start flying off the handle...

We should have a pretty solid idea by Sunday night...

Franc (penguinzee)

Who's flying off the handle ?

I just need to cover any of my energy shorts that are exposed, and go long on a few home supply companies if this pans out. :D

ezrider
09-05-2008, 06:28 PM
GFS is WAYY farther south. I think its pretty obvious the main risk is now shunted down to Cuba. At least for the time being, South Florida is in the clear.

Castro though might have to do some planning this weekend :beer:

LvDemWings
09-05-2008, 06:38 PM
Just curious since I've never visited South Florida - what specific concerns exist for a strong hurricane striking the Miami area? (I know. Bite my tongue.) By now, I think everyone knows about the levee issue with New Orleans. Some forecasts are showing Ike as a category 3 hitting Miami. Do they have a levee system? What are the major specifc issues in that area?

This is what it will look like afterward. (this is my GP's condo after Francis and Jeanne)
http://www.atlantiscondos.org/Jeanne/disp.php?n=2&k=3

http://www.atlantiscondos.org/Jeanne/disp.php?n=2&k=4

BirdGuano
09-05-2008, 06:57 PM
Concrete shells survive fine.

Just nothing inside.. well except for the mud.

flourbug
09-05-2008, 06:59 PM
That storm is coming entirely too close to Tampa. It really needs to start making a sharp turn to the right, NOW.

Renegade
09-05-2008, 07:03 PM
well, dang...come in from working my tail off and this is what I get greeted with???

crap is about right bg.....

noeyedeer
09-05-2008, 07:31 PM
High population concentration
Hard to evacuate
Barely above sea level on a good day, and definitely not above storm surge level
No levee system or barrier swamp to protect it


I had to cancel a business trip to Miami because of this thing.


5-7 million people, only 3 main interstate ways out, and an entire population that won't drink tap water.

Renegade
09-05-2008, 07:34 PM
and an entire population that won't drink tap water.

Can't really blame them for that now...have you ever tasted south Florida water? :puke:

Old Hawk
09-05-2008, 07:57 PM
That storm is coming entirely too close to Tampa. It really needs to start making a sharp turn to the right, NOW.

OK then, let's all start pushing (thinking, picturing) it that way. There is science behind this notion.

OH

MomCares
09-05-2008, 07:59 PM
I'm now thinking (hoping) Ike's going to spare Florida, but Cuba may get hit. I'm also thinking (hoping) it may lose a lot of intensity due to shear before landfall.

From my lips to god's ears?


MomCares

A.T. Hagan
09-05-2008, 09:18 PM
Starting to get the fidgets.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09.gif

.....Alan (we ought to have a good idea by Sunday evening)

Renegade
09-05-2008, 09:23 PM
no kidding...shooting the straights not bother me..it's that dang northern curve....

Renegade
09-05-2008, 09:25 PM
Here's Derek's latest track...

that was a bit big...let's try this one.

neilyoungfan
09-05-2008, 09:26 PM
Here's another view, with intensity shown...

http://www.curevents.org/attachment.php?attachmentid=164&stc=1&d=1220664335

BirdGuano
09-05-2008, 09:28 PM
OK then, let's all start pushing (thinking, picturing) it that way. There is science behind this notion.

OH

I'm voting for North Pole via open water.

:D

M Fox
09-05-2008, 09:41 PM
crap...so not liking the northeastern hook after it gets west of FL.

MomCares
09-05-2008, 10:23 PM
Here's Derek's latest track...

I think Derek knows he'll shift it south, but he didn't want to make too big a change on his last forecast and would prefer to err on the side of warning his folks in the Miami area.

I'm guessing his next update will shift south through the straights or even to Cuba.

Has anyone yet heard what might push it east after it cleared the straights? I have folks in Sarasota, and also know the dangers of anything approaching Tampa, so an eastern hook isn't desired.

Actually, nothing is desired if it restrengthens...


MomCares

flourbug
09-05-2008, 10:33 PM
Once it enters the Gulf as a Cat 4, its pretty much all bad.

A.T. Hagan
09-05-2008, 10:50 PM
Once he gets into the Gulf it's going to be a nervous making period for everyone from Naples, Florida to New Orleans. The models seem really indecisive about that recurve to the east.

.....Alan.

rb.
09-05-2008, 11:01 PM
Hurricane IKE Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

000
WTNT34 KNHC 060256
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 05 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE BAHAMAS...

AT 1100 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA ON
SATURDAY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH FLORIDA...
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...
580 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD MOTION BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
OR SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATE SATURDAY
OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT NEARS
THE BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES...195 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...22.6 N...65.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

rb.
09-05-2008, 11:02 PM
000
WTNT24 KNHC 060255
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0300 UTC SAT SEP 06 2008

AT 1100 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA ON
SATURDAY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH FLORIDA...
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 65.6W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT.......105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 120SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 65.6W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 64.8W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.3N 67.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.0N 70.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.9N 72.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.9N 75.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.9N 79.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 24.5N 82.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 26.0N 84.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 65.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

Renegade
09-05-2008, 11:04 PM
The models seem really indecisive about that recurve to the east.

by sunday night or monday morning there abouts they should have a better grip on the steering influences...

MomCares
09-06-2008, 12:29 AM
As I suspected, Derek's latest track shifts south, almost down to Cuba, totally misses Florida and right now looks to aim for New Orleans (though it's FAR too soon to tell that part)...
http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092008graphics.html


0300 UTC 9/5/2008 HURRICANE IKE FORECAST #9
http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092008forecast.html

For official information, please visit the National Hurricane Center (RSMC-Miami) at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov or local emergency management officials.

Ike made the turn slightly south of due west as expected. WV shows that the ridge has built in the the north. This should favor a track more to the west. Guidance has responded by shifting its track to the south today. This forecast is also shifted south, but not as far as the guidance. It is best not to make dramatic shifts in each forecast.

Recon found that Ike retained category 3 status during the day. This strong shear that affected Ike during the day should relax during the next day or so. Therefore, after a period of steady-state intensity, gradual intensification back to category 4 status is indicated. If Ike tracks over either Cuba or Florida, the intensity at the longer time periods will be slower. Also, eyewall cycles, which are not indicated in this forecast, could impact intensity.

All residents of the Bahamas, Cuba and south Florida should monitor the progress of this extremely dangerous hurricane.

Ortt

DryHeat
09-06-2008, 01:02 AM
The problem is that by Monday, as the model projection consensus stands now, Miami is within the cone, as it is still on Tuesday on the 5-day projections. I do NOT envy the jobs of whomever decides (and very quickly) whether to call an evacuation of Miami. Combining the chances of a reintensification up to Cat4 with a bit of a northerly path jog, there's what, maybe a 5% chance Miami really really should be evacuated? I suppose media mentions of evac possibilities and suggestions voluntary stages begin soon might buy time until Saturday night to do more tea leaf readings. There're a lot of city names as disaster candidates with Ike, as well as scenarios like passage across Cuba that likely rather piffle it out into something like Hanna, or weaker.

It seems quite clear to me to get everyone out of the Keys. Beyond that, at this moment, I'm glad it's not my job to decide.

ezrider
09-06-2008, 02:29 AM
http://img369.imageshack.us/img369/961/ike2ge5.jpg

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092008graphics.html


Don't want to send any bad vibs their way, but looks like Ike is headed toward the NO area :crosseyes:

noeyedeer
09-06-2008, 05:52 AM
and an entire population that won't drink tap water.

Can't really blame them for that now...have you ever tasted south Florida water? :puke:

yes. It's mostly because they are latin, and out of habit only drink bottled water.

Renegade
09-06-2008, 07:11 AM
Tropical Storm Public Advisory


Statement as of 5:00 am AST on September 06, 2008


...Major Hurricane Ike still heading west-southwestward...


A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the northern coast of
the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo westward to the
northern border with Haiti.


A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the Northern
Peninsula of Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican
Republic to gonaives.


A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.


A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas. A Hurricane Warning means
that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.


A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the central Bahamas. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within
the watch area...generally within 36 hours.


A Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of eastern Cuba later
today.


All interests in the remainder of the Bahamas...Cuba...South
Florida...and the Florida Keys should closely monitor the progress
of this potentially dangerous hurricane.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 500 am AST...0900z...the center of Hurricane Ike was located near
latitude 22.4 north...longitude 67.1 west or about 265 miles...425
km...east-northeast of Grand Turk island.


Ike is moving toward the west-southwest near 16 mph...26 km/hr. A
continued west-southwestward motion is forecast during the next day
or so...followed by a more westward motion beginning by Sunday. On
this track...Ike is expected to pass near or over the Turks and
Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today or early
Sunday...and near the central Bahamas and the northern coast of
eastern Cuba on Sunday night and early Monday.


Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph...185 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ike is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible during
the next 48 hours...but Ike is expected to be a major hurricane
during this period.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles...75 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125
miles...205 km.


The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft was 962 mb...28.41 inches.


Storm surge flooding of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected in the warning area near and to the north to the of
the center of Ike.


Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches is expected over the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas.


Repeating the 500 am AST position...22.4 N...67.1 W. Movement
toward...west-southwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds...115
mph. Minimum central pressure...962 mb.


An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
am AST.


$$
Forecaster Roberts/Knabb

Renegade
09-06-2008, 07:11 AM
Hurricane Ike Discussion Number 21


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 06, 2008


Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft recorded a maximum flight
level wind of 104 kt over the northwest quadrant and an SFMR peak
wind of 96 kt over the northeastern portion of the cyclone. Based
on these data...the initial intensity is held at 100 kt. The
aircraft meteorologist also indicated that Ike has a closed 24 nm
diameter eye. A dropsonde within the eye measured 983 mb but that
was with a surface wind of 16 kt. As a compromise...the central
pressure is adjusted slightly to 982 mb. Although northerly shear
seems to be persisting over the cyclone...it does not appear to be
affecting the inner core convection as much as it was previously.
Intensity models continue to indicate that the shear will decrease
in about 24 hours...which should allow for some strengthening
before Ike moves near or over the northern coast of Cuba. The
intensity forecast is very similar to the previous package but now
depicts some weakening as Ike traverses the Cuban coast. Of
course...any slight deviation north or south of the forecast will
either allow for strengthening over water or a longer period of
weakening over land. Later on...conditions appear rather conducive
for strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico.


Initial motion is estimated at 255/14...within the deep-layer flow
of a strong ridge digging southwestward over the Bahamas...through
The Straits of Florida...and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Dynamical models suggest that the ridge will shift to a more zonal
pattern during the next 24 to 36 hours which will cause Ike to move
in a more westward fashion. Afterward...guidance indicates that
the Southwest Ridge extension over the southeastern Gulf/Straits of
Florida will erode just enough to induce a gradual turn toward the
northwest by the end of the forecast period. There is much
uncertainty in the models as to how close Ike will approach the
northern coast of Cuba. In fact...the two hurricane models
actually bring the cyclone over the island in 36 hours. Without
question...the particular track that the GFDL and HWRF are
suggesting could have a significant impact on Ike's intensity.
The official forecast is weighed heavily on the model consensus and
is adjusted just to the left of the previous advisory to compensate
for the westward-shifting model trend.


Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 06/0900z 22.4n 67.1w 100 kt
12hr VT 06/1800z 22.1n 69.0w 100 kt
24hr VT 07/0600z 21.8n 71.6w 100 kt
36hr VT 07/1800z 21.6n 74.1w 105 kt
48hr VT 08/0600z 21.8n 76.6w 115 kt
72hr VT 09/0600z 23.0n 80.5w 90 kt...near coast of Cuba
96hr VT 10/0600z 24.5n 83.5w 105 kt
120hr VT 11/0600z 26.0n 85.5w 110 kt


$$
forecaster Roberts/Knabb

TheStripey1
09-06-2008, 12:24 PM
Some of the models show him in the Gulf next week headed basically towards N'Awlins... Not good in that I fear many of the residents, having evacuated for Gustav will not heed the warnings for Ike and stay put...

:eek:

BirdGuano
09-06-2008, 12:38 PM
Some of the models show him in the Gulf next week headed basically towards N'Awlins... Not good in that I fear many of the residents, having evacuated for Gustav will not heed the warnings for Ike and stay put...

:eek:

I think that's a very REAL probability after listening to some of the interviews on the MSM.

A lot of the people spent their last dime evacuating and aren't in a position to do it again back-to-back.

And if Ike turns out to be larger than Gustav and is a direct hit on NOLA ?

Bad juju.

Renegade
09-06-2008, 12:43 PM
I think Derek knows he'll shift it south, but he didn't want to make too big a change on his last forecast and would prefer to err on the side of warning his folks in the Miami area.

I'm guessing his next update will shift south through the straights or even to Cuba.


yea, I kind of figured that was well...he now has it shooting the straights....

but it seems the consensus is that the current models are suggesting a bit of shift back to the north so it's still a tossup as to whether the southern tip of Florida catches it or not...

penguinzee
09-06-2008, 12:50 PM
Well, so far, anyways, it appears N'Awlins and the MS/AL Gulf coasts appear to be the main targets of Ike. But what concerns me is the GFDL model-it still puts Ike right off the coast of Pinellas County on Wednesday night. Since GFDL has been one of the best models over the years (relatively, at least) I still feel that Florida (and Tampa Bay in particular) are not out of the woods just yet...

Check back tonight for South Florida, and tomorrow for Tampa...

Franc (penguinzee)

caonacl
09-06-2008, 01:29 PM
damn! CNN is showing Ike making land-fall at NOLA

Ramius31
09-06-2008, 03:09 PM
damn! CNN is showing Ike making land-fall at NOLA

I wouldn't take to much credence in any track until/if Ike shoots the straits.

BirdGuano
09-06-2008, 05:23 PM
Florida Keys ordered evacuated.
Ike up to Category 4

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/weather/09/06/hurricane.ike/

MIAMI, Florida (CNN) -- Visitors to the Florida Keys were told to pack up and leave Saturday because of the threat from Hurricane Ike, swirling in the Caribbean.


"We're sorry to interrupt their vacations, but we need visitors to leave the Keys to ensure their safety," said Keys Mayor Mario Di Gennaro, who also chairs the islands' Tourism Council. "We do hope they will return and understand our concerns for their well-being."

A couple of hours after the orders were announced, Ike strengthened to an "extremely dangerous" Category 4 storm with winds near 135 mph, said the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

At 5 p.m. ET Saturday, Ike's center was 90 miles east of Grand Turk Island, moving west-southwest at 15 mph.

Florida emergency management officials began evacuating visitors from Key West and the rest of the Keys on Saturday and planned to help residents leave Sunday.

The threat is more immediate in the Turks and Caicos Islands, where forecasters expect the storm to strike late Saturday or early Sunday.

The British government arranged extra flights to move visitors to Turks and Caicos, a British crown colony, out of harm's way before the Providenciales airport was forced to close about noon.

"The flights look impossible at the moment," Bahamian Patrick Munroe told The Associated Press at the Providenciales airport.

"As I watched the weather forecast, it looks really, really serious, and I think it's going to be devastating," he told AP.

"I don't remember ever seeing a mass exodus like this," Providenciales resident Tracy Paradis told AP. She intended to fly to Seattle, Washington, with her 19-month-old twins and return after the hurricane.

Officials in Monroe County, Florida, which includes the Keys, prepared by closing or planning to close schools and state, officials said in a written statement.

There will be no commercial flights to Key West starting Sunday night, and the airport won't be reopened until the storm passes, Key West Airport Director Peter Horton said. The suspension of flights also applies to the airport at Marathon Key, an hour's drive from Key West, he said.

General aviation flights, including private and charter planes, will be allowed until noon Sunday, he said.

Ike is expected to start turning toward the northwest Monday, a path that would take the storm over the Keys and into the southeast Gulf of Mexico.

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist acknowledged that storm tracks are unpredictable, but he said Ike could be a serious threat by Tuesday.

"We continue to watch with much concern the track of Hurricane Ike," Crist said Saturday. "Ike has grown rapidly into a dangerous storm that continues to move ... toward Florida."

Crist declared a state of emergency Friday, allowing officials to get supplies in place, such as drinking water and ready-to-eat meals, near vulnerable areas.

Fran Chipley of Key West, Florida, said she planned to stay put. She manages the front desk at historic Chelsea House, a bed and breakfast on the waterfront.

"Our plans today are business as usual ... then we're going to see what happens tomorrow," she said. "I know there's a mandatory evacuation today, but we are allowing our guests to stay if they choose to, which I think I know they're going to do, because it's beautiful.":re:

Ike "looks like it's going south, and we're hoping for that," Chipley added.

She said she lives in a home that is on higher ground and survived Hurricane Wilma in October 2005. Wilma hit southeast Florida, did extensive damage on the East Coast and killed nearly 20 people in Florida, Mexico and Haiti.

Arianwen
09-06-2008, 06:15 PM
This is not good, is it?

BirdGuano
09-06-2008, 08:07 PM
Tracks take it through Cuba and I'm hoping that and some shear will tear it apart a little before it gets to the Oil Fields in the gulf and NOLA/Houston.

6 refineries just completed start-up procedures on the Gulf, now may have to go back into shutdown and evacuation mode.

EPA gave the go-ahead to use imported gas.

Renegade
09-06-2008, 08:13 PM
may take another day to tell for sure....a couple of the models have the eye barely skimming the northern coast of cuba. If so, it won't have that much effect overall...and it looks like conditions are going to be pretty favorable in the GOM once it makes it there....

neilyoungfan
09-06-2008, 09:31 PM
The latest storm track from storm2k.org:

http://www.curevents.org/attachment.php?attachmentid=169&stc=1&d=1220751054

LvDemWings
09-06-2008, 09:51 PM
This is a pretty cool picture http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-bd.html

Renegade
09-06-2008, 10:09 PM
Unfortunately, this one has been fairly accurate in the past...

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_sfc_prcp&loop=1

I'm really hoping that it's screwing up big time now though...:eek:

blue gecko
09-06-2008, 10:12 PM
Well, It would be good for NOLA but BAD for you!!

Renegade
09-06-2008, 10:19 PM
no kidding...that's why it has to be wrong this time....


:cool:

LvDemWings
09-06-2008, 11:16 PM
The forcast is taking it farther south and the cone has moved to the west a bit. The forcast speeds it up a hair too.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5_sm2+gif/024713W_sm.gif

MomCares
09-07-2008, 01:42 AM
It seems that these further-south tracks may allow Ike to stay stronger, if it passes back into the water on the south side of Cuba. Or maybe it will get more torn up crossing Cuba's mountains?

In any case, it looks like Florida is almost out of the woods.


MomCares

Bay Girl
09-07-2008, 05:38 AM
I've got a hunch this one headed straight for K-Ville.

Renegade
09-07-2008, 06:33 AM
Tropical Storm Public Advisory


Statement as of 5:00 am AST on September 07, 2008


Corrected Cuban provinces in Hurricane Warning


...Ike heading for Great Inagua Island in the southeastern
Bahamas....


at 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...the government of Cuba has extended the
Hurricane Warning to the provinces of Camaguey and Ciego de Avila.
A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba...Holguin...Las Tunas and Granma...
Camaguey and Ciego de Avila.


A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins...
Crooked Island...the Inaguas...Mayaguana...and the Ragged
Islands...and for the central Bahamas including Cat Island...the
Exumas...Long Island...Rum Cay...and San Salvador.


A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the northern coast of
the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo westward to the
northern border with Haiti.


A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Northern
Peninsula of Haiti from the northern boarder with the Dominican
Republic to gonaives.


At 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...the government of Cuba has extended the
Hurricane Watch to the provinces of Villa Clara and Cienfuegos.
A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for the Cuban province of Sancti
Spiritus.


At 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...the government of the Bahamas has issued a
Hurricane Watch for Andros Island.


All interests in the remainder of the Bahamas...Cuba...South
Florida...and the Florida Keys should closely monitor the progress
of this extremely dangerous hurricane.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 500 am AST...0900z...the center of Hurricane Ike was located near
latitude 21.1 north...longitude 72.2 west or about 65 miles...105 km
...East of Great Inagua Island.


Ike is moving on a motion just south of due west near 15 mph...24
km/hr. A west to west-southwest motion is expected to continue
today with a turn toward the west-northwest expected on Monday. On
this track...the core of the hurricane will move through the
southeastern Bahamas this morning and move near or over eastern
Cuba tonight...and near or over central Cuba late Monday.


Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ike is an extremely category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is possible before Ike
moves over eastern Cuba.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles...75 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 145
miles...230 km.


The latest minimum pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircfaft was 948 mb...27.99 inches.


Storm surge flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected within the warning area in areas of onshore flow.


Large swells generated by Ike will affect portions of the southeast
United States coast during the next couple of days. These waves
could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip currents.


Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches are expected over the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas. Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could see 6 to 12
inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of up to 20 inches
possible. These rains will likely cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides over mountainous terrain.


Repeating the 500 am AST position...21.1 N...72.2 W. Movement
toward...west near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph.
Minimum central pressure...948 mb.


An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
am AST.


$$
Forecaster Brown

Renegade
09-07-2008, 06:34 AM
Hurricane Ike Discussion Number 25


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 07, 2008


the eye of Ike passed directly over the turks islands during the
past several hours. An automated surface observing site in the
turks islands reported sustained winds of 99 kt and a pressure of
975.3 mb at 0300 UTC. No additional reports have been received from
that station. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft recently
reported a minimum pressure of 948 mb and a peak flight-level of
121 kt. This supports maintaining the intensity at 115 kt.


Ike has been moving on a motion just south of due west for the past
several hours and the intial motion estimate is 260/13. It is a
little too early to determine if the much anticipated westward turn
has begun. The forecast reasoning remains unchanged...as Ike is
expected to continue in a general westward motion for another day
or so...before turning more west-northwest as the ridge to the
north weakens a little. The track guidance through 48 hours appears
to have stopped its southward shifts. In fact...both the GFDL and
HWRF have shifted a little northward...perhaps in response to the
additional data provided by the G-IV dropsonde mission last
evening. During the 3-5 day time frame there is still considerable
spread in the guidance with the GFS...UKMET...and ECMWF along the
left or southern side of the envelope...with the GFDL and HWRF on
the right side. The new NHC track has been adjusted slightly north
of the previous track. It is along the southern side of the
guidance during the 36 hours...and thereafter is close to the model
consensus.


Conditions appear favorable for strengthening before the center of
Ike near the island of Cuba. Thereafter...the intensity is
dependant on how long Ike interacts with land. With the new track
forecast up the middle of the island...the official forecast is a
little lower than the previous adivsory. Once Ike moves into the
southeastern Gulf...coniditions apprear favorable for
strengthening...so the official forecast shows steady
intensification at days 4 and 5.




Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 07/0900z 21.1n 72.2w 115 kt
12hr VT 07/1800z 21.0n 74.2w 120 kt
24hr VT 08/0600z 21.2n 76.6w 125 kt...inland
36hr VT 08/1800z 21.8n 79.0w 85 kt...inland
48hr VT 09/0600z 22.5n 81.1w 65 kt...inland
72hr VT 10/0600z 24.5n 84.5w 80 kt
96hr VT 11/0600z 26.0n 87.0w 95 kt
120hr VT 12/0600z 27.0n 89.5w 100 kt


$$
forecaster Brown

Vog46_1999
09-07-2008, 11:39 AM
Some of the models show him in the Gulf next week headed basically towards N'Awlins... Not good in that I fear many of the residents, having evacuated for Gustav will not heed the warnings for Ike and stay put...

:eek:


Latest advisory (11:00am) today"

HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 26...CORRECTED...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 07 2008

...CORRECTED TO ADD WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

...EYE OF IKE PASSING OVER GREAT INAGUA ISLAND...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE
AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...LA
HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE HABANA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND SOUTH
FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES...
25 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 130 MILES
...205 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR..A WEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER
CENTRAL CUBA LATE MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
AND TONIGHT BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES EASTERN CUBA. IKE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145
MILES...230 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...21.0 N...73.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN



Forecast maps are moving Ike's direction away from NOLA headin towards Texas late next week.
Just what we need. Ike gets weakened over Cuba then spends days over the warm gulf waters. Yikes

Best Regards
Vog

Oric
09-07-2008, 12:20 PM
I hope it passes aWAY quick

MomCares
09-07-2008, 01:10 PM
This track is bad for Cuba, but maybe Ike can commit suicide over their mountains.


MomCares

goatlady
09-07-2008, 01:20 PM
Guantanamo should be interesting in the next 24. Are they still housing those guys in tents??

LvDemWings
09-07-2008, 03:45 PM
Ren looks like your model changed again and now shows a blow to Texas and it sliding up the Texas/Louisiana border.

Renegade
09-07-2008, 03:49 PM
I saw that....if it holds I hate it for them.....but....


just watch and wait....


bad part is, I've got a sister in Dallas....:cool:

shame we can't wishcast it to some deserted part of Mexico...

blue gecko
09-07-2008, 03:59 PM
Ren looks like your model changed again and now shows a blow to Texas and it sliding up the Texas/Louisiana border.


And straight for ME!! This would NOT BE FAIR. We've already had Gustav as a house guest this month.....whine...

A.T. Hagan
09-07-2008, 05:50 PM
You know, I'm beginning to think he's heading for a Mexican vacation or at least southernmost Texas. Still too soon to say for sure of course, but that's what the trend is starting to look like to me.

.....Alan.

Old Hawk
09-08-2008, 01:00 AM
shame we can't wishcast it to some deserted part of Mexico...

As a matter of fact a small group of us here are doing just that, a less populated area. We feel we shifted Gustave west of a direct hit on NO.

Feel free to join in.

OH

Renegade
09-08-2008, 06:19 AM
Tropical Storm Public Advisory


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 08, 2008


...Ike weakens as it moves inland over Cuba...


At 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued
for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef southward to the Dry
Tortugas...including Florida Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning means
that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours.


A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean
Reef southward to the Dry Tortugas.


At 5 am EDT...the government of the Bahamas has adjusted its watches
and warnings as follows...a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect
for Andros Island and Ragged Island. All other watches and warnings
for the Bahamas are discontinued.


At 5 am EDT...the government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the western provinces of la Habana...Ciudad de
Habana...Pinar del Rio...and the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane Watch
remains in effect for these provinces.


A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba... Holguin...Las Tunas and
Granma...Camaguey...Ciego de Avila....Villa Clara...Sancti
Spiritus...Cienfuegos...and Matanzas.


A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands.


Interests in South Florida should monitor the progress of Ike.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 500 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Ike was located near
latitude 21.2 north...longitude 77.3 west or about 40 miles... 65 km
...East-southeast of Camaguey Cuba.


Ike is moving toward the west near 15 mph...24 km/hr..and a west to
west-northwest motion is expected over the next day or two. On
this track the center of Ike will move over much of central Cuba
today...and emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by late
Tuesday.


Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ike is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Additional weakening is forecast as Ike moves over central Cuba
today.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200
miles...325 km.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb...28.11 inches.


Storm surge flooding in Cuba will gradually subside today. Storm
surge flooding of 2-4 feet is possible in the Florida Keys.


Large swells generated by Ike will affect portions of the southeast
United States coast during the next couple of days. These waves
could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip currents.


Ike is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches
throughout Cuba...with isolated maximum amounts of up to 20 inches
possible. These rains are likely to cause life- threatening flash
floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain. Rainfall totals of
4 to 8 inches are possible in the southern Bahamas. Portions of
Hispaniola could receive additional amounts of 3 to 5 inches.
Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible over the
Florida Keys.


Repeating the 500 am EDT position...21.2 N...77.3 W. Movement
toward...west near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph.
Minimum central pressure...952 mb.


An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
am EDT.


$$
Forecaster Franklin

Renegade
09-08-2008, 06:19 AM
Hurricane Ike Discussion Number 29


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 08, 2008


Cuban radar observations indicate that the center of Ike continues
moving westward over central Cuba. The eye is still visible but
the eyewall is now entirely over land and its structure has degraded
over the past few hours. The initial intensity is lowered to 90
kt. The official forecast again shows less weakening over land
than indicated by the decay SHIPS model...in the event that the
center emerges over water sooner than forecast. If Ike follows the
forecast track it will be over land for about 36 hours...and would
almost surely be weaker in the southeastern Gulf than shown here.
Nevertheless...the environment in the Gulf is expected to be very
conducive to restrengthening with a very difluent light shear upper
wind pattern and warm waters below. The major unknown is how
disrupted Ike will be when it emerges.


There has been no significant change to the forecast track. Ike's
trajectory is expected to Bend gradually to the right as the storm
nears a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the next couple of
days...and the guidance models are tightly clustered through 72
hours. After that...the GFS is an outlier in calling for a sharp
short wave trough to move through the plains states on days 4-5.
The GFDL and HWRF...which use the GFS for boundary conditions...may
be picking up on that and show a Bend to the right at the end of
the forecast period. The other global models...such as the
ECMWF...show much more ridging over the eastern United States at
those ranges and have a more westward track. Even though the GFDL
has performed very well with Ike so far...i've chosen not to adjust
the track eastward given that the large-scale fields in the GFS
have no support from the other models. It is still too soon to
know what portion of the Gulf Coast will ultimately be affected by
Ike.




Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 08/0900z 21.2n 77.3w 90 kt...inland
12hr VT 08/1800z 21.6n 79.0w 75 kt...inland
24hr VT 09/0600z 22.4n 81.2w 65 kt...inland
36hr VT 09/1800z 23.1n 83.0w 60 kt...emerging into Gulf
48hr VT 10/0600z 23.9n 84.5w 75 kt
72hr VT 11/0600z 25.5n 87.0w 90 kt
96hr VT 12/0600z 27.0n 90.0w 100 kt
120hr VT 13/0600z 28.5n 93.0w 100 kt


$$
forecaster Franklin

MomCares
09-08-2008, 11:04 AM
It looks like the eye is about to enter the Caribbean... probably not a good sign as far as future intensity goes. I guess this blows my hope of Ike self-destructing over Cuba.


MomCares

Exodia
09-08-2008, 03:05 PM
000
wtnt34 knhc 081754
tcpat4
bulletin
hurricane ike intermediate advisory number 30a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al092008
200 pm edt mon sep 08 2008

...ike back over water...reconnaissance aircraft currently
approaching...

at 200 pm edt...1800 utc...the government of jamaica has
discontinued the tropical storm warning for that island.

a hurricane warning is in effect for the cuban provinces
of guantanamo...santiago de cuba... holguin...las tunas and
granma...camaguey...ciego de avila....villa clara...sancti
spiritus...cienfuegos...matanzas...la habana...ciudad de
habana...pinar del rio...and the isle of youth.

a tropical storm warning is in effect for little cayman and cayman
brac.

a tropical storm warning is in effect for the florida keys from
ocean reef southward to the dry tortugas...including florida bay. a
tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

a hurricane watch remains in effect for the florida keys from ocean
reef southward to the dry tortugas.

a tropical storm warning is in effect for andros island and ragged
island.

a tropical storm watch remains in effect grand cayman.

interests in south florida should continue to monitor the progress
of ike.

for storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

at 200 pm edt...1800z...the center of hurricane ike was located
near latitude 21.2 north...longitude 79.1 west or about 80 miles...
130 km...west of camaguey cuba and about 250 miles...405 km...
east-southeast of havana cuba.

ike is moving toward the west near 14 mph...22 km/hr...but a turn
toward the west-northwest should begin later today. on this
track...the center of hurricane ike is expected to move along or
just south of the southern coast of central cuba today...move over
western cuba tuesday...and emerge into the southeastern gulf of
mexico by tuesday night.

maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts. ike is a category two hurricane on the saffir-simpson scale.
a reconnaissance aircraft will provide a better estimate of
ike's intensity this afternoon. some restrengthening is possible
during next day or so while the system is over water.

hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200
miles...325 km. jucaro on the south coast of central cuba recently
reported a gust to 86 mph...138 km/hr.

the estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb...28.50 inches.

coastal storm surge flooding of 9-12 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected in areas of onshore winds east of ike along the southern
coast of cuba. storm surge flooding of 1-3 feet...along with large
and dangerous waves...are possible in the florida keys.

large swells generated by ike will continue to affect portions of
the southeast united states coast during the next couple of days.
these waves could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip
currents.

ike is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches
over cuba...with isolated maximum amounts of up to 20 inches
possible. these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain. rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are possible over jamaica...with 2
to 4 inches possible over the cayman islands and the southern
bahamas. rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible over
the florida keys.

isolated tornadoes are possible over the extreme southern florida
peninsula and the florida keys through tomorrow.

repeating the 200 pm edt position...21.2 n...79.1 w. movement
toward...west near 14 mph. maximum sustained winds...100 mph.
minimum central pressure...965 mb.

the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
500 pm edt.

$$
forecaster rhome/avila

TheStripey1
09-08-2008, 04:38 PM
I really like the new tools they've put up on the [ooops...] NHC site...

like this IR Rainbow (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html) for Ike...

MomCares
09-08-2008, 06:20 PM
Cool graphics... thanks for the pointer! The wind field has gotten really big!


MomCares

Renegade
09-09-2008, 06:36 AM
Tropical Storm Public Advisory


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 09, 2008


...Hurricane force wind gusts reported in Havana...

At 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...the government of Cuba has discontinued the
hurricane warnings east of the province of Matanzas.


A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Matanzas...la Habana...Ciudad de Habana...Pinar del Rio...and the
Isle of Youth.


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys from
Ocean Reef southward to the Dry Tortugas...including Florida Bay.


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman
Brac.


A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Grand Cayman.


Interests in South Florida and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor
the progress of Ike.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 500 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Ike was located by
radar and a reconnaissance plane near latitude 22.0 north...
longitude 82.1 west or about 85 miles...135 km...south-southeast of
Havana Cuba.


Ike is moving toward the west near 13 mph...20 km/hr. A gradual
turn to the west-northwest is expected today. On this track...Ike
is forecast to move over the waters between the Isle of Youth and
South Coast of Havana province during the next several hours and
then move over western Cuba later today. Ike is expected to be in
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ike is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Some strengthening is possible before Ike moves over western Cuba
today. Additional strengthening is forecast to occur when Ike
reaches the Gulf of Mexico.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 195
miles...315 km. The Cuban meteorological service at Casablanca
Havana recently measured a wind gust of 75 mph...120 km/hr. Key
West recently reported a wind gust of 54 mph...87 km/hr.


The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force plane was 965
mb...28.50 inches.


Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 7 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected in areas of onshore winds east of Ike along the southern
coast of Cuba. Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet...along with
large and dangerous waves...are possible in the Florida Keys.


Large swells generated by Ike will continue to affect portions of
the southeast United States coast during the next couple of days.
These waves could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip
currents.


Ike is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches
over Cuba...with isolated maximum amounts of up to 20 inches
possible. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain. Rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible over the Cayman
Islands. Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible over
the Florida Keys.


Isolated tornadoes and waterspouts are possible over the Florida
Keys and extreme South Florida today.


Repeating the 500 am EDT position...22.0 N...82.1 W. Movement
toward...west near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...80 mph.
Minimum central pressure...965 mb.


An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
am EDT.


$$
Forecaster Avila






View Tropical Weather View Hurricane Archive

Renegade
09-09-2008, 06:38 AM
Hurricane Ike Discussion Number 33


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 09, 2008


surface observations and data from a reconnaissance plane indicate
that Ike has a large area of tropical storm force winds but the
inner core or eye is very small but well defined...about 6 to 8 nm.
The eye can be seen from Cuban and Key West radars. Although the
minimum pressure has been around 963-965 mb...the maximum
flight level winds measured so far were only 69 knots. The initial
intensity is kept at 70 knots assuming that the plane has not
sampled the entire circulation...but this value appears quite
generous at this time. On the other hand...given the well defined
structure on radar and satellite and the fact that Ike has several
more hours over the very warm waters south of Cuba...the winds
winds could increase some near the core before moving over western
Cuba. Once over the Gulf of Mexico in about 24 hours...Ike will
have plenty of opportunity to strengthen since the environment is
conducive...and the hurricane will likely move over several areas
of high heat content. The official forecast makes Ike a category 3
hurricane and this value is in between the dynamical and
statistical models.


Fixes from Cuban and Key West radars as will as penetrations from a
reconnaissance plane indicate that the small eye of Ike is moving
westward or 280 degrees at 10 knots...very close to the Zapata
peninsula on the South Coast of western Cuba. A general westward to
west-northwestward track between the Isle of Youth and the South
Coast of Havana province should continue during the next several
hours. Then...the center should cross western Cuba later today.
Unfortunately... Ike is expected to move very near to where
Hurricane Gustav crossed Cuba a week or so ago. The steering pattern
in the Gulf of Mexico has changed little and Ike is expected to turn
more to the northwest during the next 2 days or so as the ridge
weakens due to the passage of a short wave. Thereafter...the ridge
is forecast to restrengthen and should force Ike on a more westward
track. In fact...unanimously...guidance shifted southward and once
again the official forecast was adjusted to the left and still is
on the northern side of the guidance envelope.


It cannot be overemphasized that one should not focus on 4 and 5 day
forecast points since these can be subject to substantial errors.
Do not Forget that few days ago...the guidance unanimously had Ike
near South Florida and then gradually shifted the danger toward
western Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico.




Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 09/0900z 22.0n 82.1w 70 kt
12hr VT 09/1800z 22.7n 83.5w 80 kt...inland
24hr VT 10/0600z 23.5n 85.3w 85 kt
36hr VT 10/1800z 24.2n 86.8w 90 kt
48hr VT 11/0600z 25.0n 88.5w 95 kt
72hr VT 12/0600z 25.5n 93.0w 100 kt
96hr VT 13/0600z 27.0n 97.5w 100 kt...inland
120hr VT 14/0600z 28.0n 100.5w 40 kt...inland


$$
forecaster Avila

blue gecko
09-09-2008, 10:26 AM
It looks like Cuba is really taking a pounding:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html

spinnerholic
09-09-2008, 12:05 PM
I thought that when I moved to Virginia, at long last, for the first time in my life, I could quit living in "alert" hurricane status. But I find myself still following hurricane info as closely as when I lived in the storm paths.

Instead of prepping for a storm to come wallop me, I find myself thinking of all the people and places I left behind and praying the storm doesn't hit any of them. Problem is, I know people all the way around the US part of the Gulf of Mexico. No matter what, that storm is going to clobber and kill somewhere. And those people are going to suffer.

Old Hawk, I'm praying that sucker some where less populated, so count me in as one of the group.

Old Hawk
09-09-2008, 01:47 PM
Old Hawk, I'm praying that sucker some where less populated, so count me in as one of the group.

:thumbup:

MomCares
09-09-2008, 02:15 PM
Prepare to duck, if you're in coastal Texas...

Large and dangerous hurricane to impact the TX coast early this weekend.
Preparations for the impact of a major hurricane should begin.
Jeff Lindner, HCFCD

Current:

Ike crossing W Cuba and about to enter the SE Gulf of Mexico. Reports from the Keys of sustained 50-60mph winds 150 miles NE of the center suggest that Ike continues to expand his wind field. Inner core remains very well defined with dense CDO and tiny eye structure. Ike is now tracking at 290 degrees and continues to gain some latitude.

Track:

12Z GFS has swung way northward to N of CRP instead of S of BRO while 12Z UKMET has shifted from Brazoria County to E Matagorda County. Just in 12 Z GFDL shifts to between Freeport and GLS…if this holds for at least two runs…we are going to have some very big issues. At 1000am the NHC forecast was adjusted northward to nearly on top of CRP out of respect for the trend setting of the EURO and UKMET models that have performed very well with Ike. I am not at all sold on S TX and off the record still see Matagorda Bay to possibly Vermillion Bay…will for the respect of NHC go down to Rockport.

The W coast trough is now entering the coastline and passing into the US upper air sounding network. Base of strong short wave is clearly noted digging toward SFO at this time, but appears to still be digging SSE while looking progressive. 12Z GFS may be keying on this and now erodes the ridge over TX sooner allowing Ike to turn NW in the W Gulf and gain more latitude.

Feel the models will swing back northward as they likely swung too far south yesterday and overnight…but how far is the big question mark.

Note: forecast errors at Days 4-5 can be 250 miles and everyone in the error cone should be making the same preparations.

Intensity:

No real changes here as once the inner core reaches the water…all appears go for intensification…if not rapid. GFDL and HWRF still forecast a monster hurricane while the SHIPS is a weaker, but still major hurricane. Main point to be made is the size…Ike will be extremely large…likely expanding its cloud shield to the entire Gulf of Mexico and TS force wind diameter of nearly 300-400 miles and hurricane force wind diameter of 80-120 miles.

Impacts:

Still too early to pinpoint direct impacts as the track is likely going to shift around some more.

Will need to ramp up seas to at least 12-15 feet offshore starting Thursday as long period swells propagate outward. WWIII guidance shows some hefty 30-40 foot swells being generated and headed toward the middle and upper coast. Given current track TS force winds would cover at least our SW 1/3rd counties Saturday morning with hurricane force wind radius scraping into the Port O Connor region. Any adjustment of the track N will bring hurricane conditions deeper into the Matagorda Bay complex and TS conditions into Galveston Bay.

Tidal impacts given the track would be around 3.0 feet along the west end of Galveston Island and in the Bay. Could see tides run 3-5 feet above normal around Matagorda Bay given the current track.

It should be clearly understood that given the size of this hurricane a large and destructive storm surge will occur near and to the right of where the center crosses the coast.

Actions:

Full activation of the State Hurricane Response Plan is underway.

H-72 was at 1100am this morning…H timeline remains set for onset of TS force winds Friday early afternoon…all evacuation must be completed by that time.

Evacuation team is fully stood up at the State EOC and coordinating with nearly the entire coast on timelines for mandatory evacuations. The critical decision window is going to be Wednesday.

Fuel team is reporting high demand in the Houston area and supply is already low post Gustav. Fuel is being redirected into the area..however outages in LA are hampering this and TX terminals will begin shutting down along the coast starting late Wednesday.

Contra flow routes have been prepared and once a mandatory evacuation is called for contra flow will be enacted.

It seems likely at this point that I-37 from CRP to SAT will be contra flowed for the evacuation of CRP.

MomCares
09-09-2008, 03:19 PM
Maybe some good news re. future intensity...

1500 UTC 09/09/2008 HURRICANE IKE FORECAST #16
Ortt


For official information, please visit the National Hurricane Center (RSMC-Miami) at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov or local emergency management officials.

Aircraft data shows no intensification with Ike. In fact, it is probably a tropical storm now. I will hang onto hurricane status until it makes landfall, though weakening to a storm is forecast. Once in the Gulf, environmental conditions are now looking somewhat hostile. WV and University of Wisconsin satellite winds indicate that there is strong shear in the Gulf. SHIPS also diagnoses this. This appears to be from an anti-cyclone centered over Mexico. Therefore, I am lowering the intensity forecast to 100KT at landfall, and this is probably too high if the SHIPS shear values verify.

Model guidance has shifted slightly south during the last 12 hours. However, UKMET made a north shift. The issue is does the ridge hold until landfall or does a weakness allow for a more northerly turn. Since landfall is about 96 hours away, I will continue to split the difference until it becomes clear which scenario holds. The landfall location, however, has again been shifted south.

Ramius31
09-09-2008, 04:22 PM
Maybe the original title should be changed now? It looks like this thing is going to fizzle out over Cuba and be much weaker if it even hits the US.

MomCares
09-09-2008, 04:54 PM
It looks like the eye is starting to enter the GOM. It will be interesting to see what happens with the intensity now -- the area the forecasts never seem to get right.

The shear may get worse, but for now this monster looks pretty darned organized.


MomCares

SusyTX
09-09-2008, 05:55 PM
Spinnerholic, we spent most of our lives in Virginia and, believe me, you can get really walloped there depending on where you are. We were in Northern VA and with Agnes we were without water and power for a week.

Now were in the suburbs of San Antonio, the staging area for Texas emergency preps, and it looks like we're in the path. I'll be very glad when this hurricane season is over....

DryHeat
09-09-2008, 06:55 PM
Dr. Masters on his WeatherUnderground blog doesn't have a very sanguine view of the chances of Ike just fading away, I fear. Here's a relevant paste from what he posted a couple hours ago:

A realistic worse-case scenario for Texas
There is a significant chance that Ike will be the worst hurricane to hit Texas in over 40 years. The latest run of the HWRF and GFDL models paint a realistic worst-case scenario for Texas. These models bring Ike to the coast as a Category 4 hurricane (which I give a 20% probability of happening). The HWRF predicts a 170-mile stretch of coast will receive hurricane force winds of 74 mph or greater. A 100-mile stretch of coast will receive winds of Category 3 strength and higher, 115 mph. Hurricane force winds will push inland up to 50 miles, along a 50-mile wide region where the eyewall makes landfall. A 100-mile stretch of Texas coast will receive a storm surge of 10-15 feet, with bays just to the right of where the eye makes landfall receiving a 20-25 foot storm surge. This is what Hurricane Carla of 1961 did to Texas. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city.

If you live in Texas, what are your chances of getting hit?
I recommend Texas residents consult NHC's wind probability product to determine their odds of getting hurricane force winds. At present, NHC is calling for these odds of getting hurricane force winds at various Texas cities:

Brownsville: 8%
Corpus Christi: 8%
Freeport: 10%
Galveston: 9%
Houston: 5%

I think the odds are roughly double what NHC is advertising for the above cities.

SusyTX
09-09-2008, 08:44 PM
Unless Ike turns somewhere else, we're forecast in San Antonio to receive winds of up to 100 mph. We've reloaded all flashlights with fresh batteries and are filling up the freezer with extra ice, and are moving mulch bags/top soil bags around the one lower area we have around the house. We also have gutter extensions that we're putting on to direct as much rainfall away from the house as possible. We're not in a true flood zone, but TX soils are not great for high amounts of rainfall.

We'd like a new roof and new carpeting, but not this way...this is looking very nasty.

MomCares
09-09-2008, 09:41 PM
SusyTx -

We'll be sending you plenty of good energy for the next few days!!

I see the storm is over the gulf now, and has quickly developed a clear eye. It looks to me like the NE shear is not disorganizing it so far.

If I lived on the coast in Texas I think I might be booking a flight out of town for a nice week somewhere else.

Maybe it will still divert south into Mexico (though I think storms in the gulf tend towards the right of forecast tracks).


MomCares

A.T. Hagan
09-09-2008, 10:05 PM
If Ike turns due north as the models seem to think he will then Booger had better get ready for quite a lot of rain.

.....Alan.

Arubi
09-10-2008, 01:22 AM
nbc5i.com

Dallas Begins Preparations for Hurricane Ike

The following is a news release issued by The City of Dallas:

The City of Dallas is participating in statewide conference calls regarding evacuation preparations in the event Hurricane Ike continues on its path to the Texas Gulf Coast.

Buses are being deployed by the State to the Texas City area. The City of Dallas will begin setting up the Dallas Convention Center Wednesday afternoon in order to provide shelter, food and medical attention to about 1,000 guests who arrive via bus or who self-evacuate in their own vehicles. The Office of Emergency Management expects to activate the shelter and the City’s Emergency Operations Center either Wednesday evening or Thursday morning on a 24/7 basis.

The City of Dallas will be aided in the sheltering operation by a number of agencies including: The Red Cross, The Salvation Army, North Texas Food Bank, Volunteer Center of North Texas, Texas Baptist Men, Community Council of Greater Dallas-211, Tzu Chi Foundation, CERT Teams, Victim Relief Ministries, Boy Scouts of America, Medical Reserve Corps, Dallas County Health Department, Parkland Hospital, and UT Southwestern Hospital. The City will also reactivate a pet shelter operated by Dallas Animal Services if needed.

Dallas residents should NOT drop donations at the Dallas Convention Center shelter location NOR should they come to the Dallas Convention Center shelter location to offer volunteer assistance. Donations and volunteering should be routed through the North Texas Food Bank, the Salvation Army, the Volunteer Center of North Texas, or by contacting your favorite local charity.

To make donations or to volunteer:

DONATIONS to help purchase FOOD can be made to the North Texas Food Bank through their Web site: www.ntxfoodbank.org


DONATIONS to help purchase OTHER ESSENTIALS can be made to the Salvation Army through their Web site: www.salvationarmydfw.org


VOLUNTEERS may register for assignments with the Volunteer Center of North Texas through their Web site: www.volunteernorthtexas.org
or by calling 1-866-797-8268.

CASH DONATIONS to help provide other assistance can be made to the American Red Cross by calling 1-800-RED-CROSS or at www.redcross.org

Renegade
09-10-2008, 06:16 AM
Tropical Storm Public Advisory


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 10, 2008

...Ike still pounding western Cuba with tropical storm force winds
and heavy rains...


a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces
of Matanzas...la Habana...Ciudad de Habana...Pinar del Rio...and
the Isle of Youth.


At 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning from Key West
eastward has been discontinued. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in
effect from west of Key West to the Dry Tortugas.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 500 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Ike was located near
latitude 23.5 north...longitude 84.9 west or about 125 miles...200
km...north of the western tip of Cuba and about 465 miles...750 km
...Southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.


Ike is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph...13 km/hr...and
this motion is expected to continue across the central Gulf of
Mexico for the next 24 to 48 hours.


Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph...140 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ike is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Some strengthening is forecast and Ike could become a major
hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175
miles...280 km. Ike is still producing strong gusty winds over
western Cuba. These are some recent observations provided the Cuban
meteorological institute: Casablanca Havana a wind gust to 80
mph...129 km/hr...Pinar del Rio...63 mph...101 km/hr and La Palma
62 mph...100 km/hr.


Latest minimum central pressure reported by a hurricane hunter
aircraft was 963 mb...28.44 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding and waves along the coasts of Cuba
should gradually subside today. Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3
feet...along with large and dangerous waves...are possible in the
lower Florida Keys.


Large swells generated by Ike will continue to affect the east and
west coasts of Florida for the next day or so. These swells could
generate dangerous and life-threatening rip currents.


Ike is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches
over western Cuba...with isolated maximum amounts of up to 20 inches
possible. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain. Rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible over the Florida Keys
and rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible over portions of
southwest Florida this morning.


Isolated tornadoes and waterspouts are possible over the Florida
Keys and extreme South Florida this morning.


Repeating the 500 am EDT position...23.5 N...84.9 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...85
mph. Minimum central pressure...963 mb.


An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
am EDT.


$$
Forecaster Avila

Renegade
09-10-2008, 06:16 AM
Hurricane Ike Discussion Number 37


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 10, 2008


satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern is becoming better
organized. An area of very deep convection has developed near the
center and there are numerous of cyclonically curved bands. Ike
continues to be a large tropical cyclone and is producing tropical
storm force winds over western Cuba and a portion of the westermost
Florida Keys. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft currently
sampling the hurricane measured a minimum pressure of 963 mb and
SFMR winds of 73 knots. The maximium flight level wind so far is 81
knots. On this basis...the initial intensity is adjusted up to 75
knots. All indications are that Ike has begun to recover from the
many hours of interaction with land. A gradual strengthening should
continue as Ike moves over a couple of warm eddies associated with
The Loop current and moves within a favorable upper-level
environment. The official forecast makes Ike a category three
hurricane based on a blend between statistical and dynamical
hurricane models. However...the intenisity forecast is uncertain
and Ike could end up being a category higher or lower than
forecast.


Radar and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Ike is moving toward
the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 7 knots around the
southwestern edge a strong subtropical ridge over the western
Atlantic. Most of the global models indicate that the ridge will
build and expand westward forcing Ike to continue on a general
west-northwest track for the next tree days across the central Gulf
of Mexico. Thereafter...the hurricane should turn more to the
northwest and north around the western edge of the high. Most of
the guidance suggests that the northward turn will occur after the
cyclone is already inland. I have high confidence in the 24 to 48
hour forecast track since guidance is tightly clustered.
Thereafter...the confidence is not so high because the models are
more spread out...but they all bring the hurricane ashore along
the Texas coast in about three days...and so does the official
forecast.

Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 10/0900z 23.5n 84.9w 75 kt
12hr VT 10/1800z 24.0n 86.0w 80 kt
24hr VT 11/0600z 24.7n 87.7w 90 kt
36hr VT 11/1800z 25.2n 89.7w 100 kt
48hr VT 12/0600z 25.8n 92.0w 105 kt
72hr VT 13/0600z 27.5n 96.5w 105 kt
96hr VT 14/0600z 31.5n 98.0w 40 kt...inland
120hr VT 15/0600z 34.5n 97.0w 25 kt...extratropical


$$
forecaster Avila

booger
09-10-2008, 07:23 AM
If Ike turns due north as the models seem to think he will then Booger had better get ready for quite a lot of rain.

.....Alan.

*sigh*

Yep, I've been keeping an eye on this sucker. We've got a good chance of rain all week but, starting this weekend, the forecasters are beginning to use the word "ominous". Hubby missed a couple days' work from Gustav, got rained out. We really don't need to lose any more $$ from the paycheck. Although, we can safely hook the well back up now. :cool:

JWt
09-10-2008, 09:40 AM
Unless Ike turns somewhere else, we're forecast in San Antonio to receive winds of up to 100 mph. We've reloaded all flashlights with fresh batteries and are filling up the freezer with extra ice, and are moving mulch bags/top soil bags around the one lower area we have around the house. We also have gutter extensions that we're putting on to direct as much rainfall away from the house as possible. We're not in a true flood zone, but TX soils are not great for high amounts of rainfall.

We'd like a new roof and new carpeting, but not this way...this is looking very nasty.

Susy, would you mind telling me where you found that forecast? We're just northwest of you, and I'm not sure what to expect. My husband just shrugs and says, "Oh, nothing will happen." We've almost flooded from much less, and are surrounded by lots of large oak trees. Thanks.

MomCares
09-10-2008, 09:46 AM
Wednesday update from Jeff Lindner, HCFCD:

Large and dangerous hurricane to strike the middle TX coast Saturday.

Preparations to protect life and property should begin immediately.

Persons in coastal storm surge zones in Brazoria, Matagorda, Jackson, Calhoun, Refugio, Aransas, and San Patricio counties will likely be under mandatory evacuations by the end of today. If told to leave do so…it will save your life.

Current:

Well defined hurricane moving through the SE Gulf of Mexico. Within the last few hours a large burst of deep convection has developed over the center. Radar images out of Key West show numerous curved bands and Ike continues to recover from the land interaction. Recon. indicated flight level winds of 81kts so Ike remains a category 1 hurricane.

Track:

Guidance is now strongly clustered through 48 hours along a WNW track and nearing the TX coast. After 48 hours the model diverge as to how fast and hard the turn to the right (east will be). Guidance has come into better agreement with a landfall along the TX coast between Rockport and Port O Connor. Current NHC track as the center striking the coast near SE Refugio County on the W side of San Antonio Bay.

There is still a decent amount of error potential in this forecast track at Day 3…and errors of 100-150 miles are still possible.

Landfall should be around 100am-400am Saturday morning.

Intensity:

Everything is still pointing to a category 3 hurricane through the Gulf of Mexico. Given the low shear and warm Gulf waters Ike may make a run at category 4 intensity. NHC brings Ike into the TX coast as a 120mph hurricane.

This will be a very large hurricane with TS force winds extending outward 200 miles from the center and hurricane force winds up to 60 miles.

Impacts:

Large and destructive storm surge is expected near and right of where the center crosses the coast.

Matagorda Bay:

Large storm surge of 12-16 feet is likely across the Bay and Gulf coastline. Surge of 16-18 feet is possible at the head of Lavaca Bay and the head of San Antonio Bay. Sustained TS force winds will be arriving on the coast starting early Friday building to hurricane force Friday early evening. Sustained winds of 100-115mph will be possible across the western side of Matagorda Bay in the Port O Connor, Port Lavaca, and Point Comfort areas. Sustained winds near 120mph are possible across Seadrift, Long Mott, Austwell, and Tivoli in western Calhoun County and Refugio County.

Note: wave action of 6-8 feet will be additional to the surge levels.

Significant damage from storm surge and wave action is expected across most of Calhoun and Refugio Counties. Complete failure of structures is possible and some strongly built structures will suffer extensive damage.

Matagorda County:

Storm surge flooding of 6-10 feet along the Gulf will overtop most of Matagorda Peninsula. Surge values may reach 12-14 feet across the E part of Matagorda Bay near Palacios, and Collegeport with values of 6-8 feet up the coast to the mouth of the San Bernard River. TS force winds onset early Friday and continue through late Saturday. Winds may reach low end category 1 intensity sustained across the western part of the county extending inland across Jackson and Wharton counties.

Brazoria County:

Storm surge flooding of 6-8 feet is likely along the entire coastline flooding the coastal communities on the Gulf beaches. Sustained TS force winds onset early Friday and continue through late Saturday…may see winds gust to 75mph in the stronger feeder bands.

Galveston, Harris, Fort Bend, Chambers:

Storm surge flooding of 5-7 feet along the Gulf beaches…will flood much of the west end of Galveston and parts of Bolivar. Surge of 4-6 feet on the west side of Galveston Bay will flood portions of Seabrook and Kemah. TS winds will onset early Friday and continue through late Saturday with gust to near hurricane force along the coastline of Galveston County and across SW Fort Bend County.

Rainfall:

Rainfall amounts of 6-12 inches is likely along the core track of Ike through the Matagorda Bay region NW into the region between Austin and CLL. Rainfall amounts of 4-6 inches will be possible across the rest of SE TX. Flooding from rainfall is likely W of I-45 along with significant rises on area rivers.

Actions:

Mandatory Evac. Zip Coe 77541 in Brazoria County effective at 1000am

The time for critical decisions is now…local leaders will be making these decisions this morning.

Numerous coastal counties will begin evacuations today.

Residents in the Matagorda Bay area should complete all preparations to protect life and property and follow all evacuation orders promptly…DO NOT stay in the coastal surge zones.

A.T. Hagan
09-10-2008, 05:00 PM
From looking at the satellite view it seems the big rain we got this afternoon is from Ike. He's a big storm to be putting rain like that on me in North Florida when he's heading for south Texas.

.....Alan.

Sonny
09-10-2008, 06:21 PM
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html)

http://icons-pe.wxug.com/graphics/rss/rssmini.gif (http://rss.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/rss.xml) Last Updated: 9:24 PM GMT on September 10, 2008 —

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Posted by: JeffMasters (http://www.wunderground.com/about/jmasters.asp), 8:17 PM GMT on September 10, 2008 Hurricane Ike (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_5day.html?MR=1) has grown into a very large and powerful Category 2 hurricane. At 2 pm EDT, the Hurricane Hunters found maximum winds had increased to 100 mph. This increase in winds was a reaction to the 10 mb drop in pressure noted in the past 12 hours. The most recent pressure measured--958 mb at 3:09 pm EDT--was actually a 1 mb increase from the 10 am reading, indicating that Ike's intensity has likely leveled off for now. Visible satellite loops (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html) show that Ike has ingested some dry air from the west, which is visible as a spiral dark streak that wraps into the core of the storm. The small 11-mile diameter eye occasionally pops into view, and is exhibiting the unusual behavior of orbiting around in a large circle within the hurricane. Hurricane Wilma of 2005--the strongest hurricane on record--exhibited this behavior during its intensification phase, as well. However, Wilma was not sucking in dry air at the time, and Ike is not likely to approach Wilma's ferocity.

A large spiral band surrounding Ike's inner eye is attempting to close off and form a new outer eyewall with a diameter of 100 miles. The power struggle between the small inner eyewall and the large outer spiral band will likely go on until Thursday, resulting in little intensification of Ike this evening. By Thursday, the power struggle will likely be over, and Ike will probably resume intensification. If the small eyewall wins, Ike could intensify rapidly to a Category 4 hurricane; if the large spiral band takes over as the new eyewall and the inner eyewall crumbles, we can expect more gradual intensification to a Category 3 hurricane.

Ike continues to grow in size, and its tropical storm force winds extend out almost as far as Katrina's did. This large wind field is already starting to pile up a formidable storm surge. Tides (http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook/data/IKE.html) are already running 2-4 feet above normal along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the west coast of Florida. Visible satellite loops (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html) show that Ike has good upper-level outflow channels open to the north and the south. Outflow and cloud cover are restricted on the storm's west side, where dry air and wind shear of 10-15 knots are affecting the storm. All indications are that Ike will intensify into a major hurricane that will bring widespread destruction to a large stretch of the Texas coast. I expect Ike will generate a 10-15 foot storm surge along a 100-mile stretch of Texas coast from the eye landfall location, northwards. I urge Texas residents to take this storm very seriously and heed any evacuation orders given. Most of you living along the coast have never experienced a major hurricane, and Ike is capable of causing high loss of life in storm surge-prone areas. Tropical storm force winds will spread over the Texas coast beginning Friday afternoon, and evacuations must be completed by Friday morning. All airports in eastern Texas will be forced to close Friday night, and will probably remain closed most of Saturday. Ike has a good chance of becoming the most destructive hurricane in Texas history--though not the most powerful.

MomCares
09-10-2008, 06:27 PM
PM update from Jeff Lindner, met with HCFCD:

At 400pm A Hurricane Watch is issued for the TX coast from Cameron, LA to Port Mansfield, TX

Preparations to protect life and property need to be rushed to completion in the hurricane watch area.

Residents under evacuations orders…complete preparations and leave…this is a serious hurricane threat…a large and destructive storm surge will cross the middle and upper TX coast…failure to evacuate may result in loss of life.

Current:

Ike continues to become better organized with a well defined CDO over the center. Latest recon found 93kt flight level winds and a nearly steady pressure of 958mb. Wind field is extremely large a takes up nearly the entire eastern ½ of the Gulf of Mexico. Ike has created minor surge flooding along the FL west coast some 250 miles from the center.

Track:

400pm track shifts to Matagorda Bay just S of Palacios with 130mph winds at landfall…this is about 40-50 miles eastward.

The slow movement today as allowed the upper trough to gain more ground on Ike and may result in a fast rightward shift before the hurricane reaches the TX coast. The 12Z guidance cluster mean has shifted toward W Matagorda County instead of W Calhoun County.

Intensity:

Upper air conditions in the Gulf of Mexico remain very favorable and Ike will be crossing the warm loop current and at least 2 warm eddies that broke off this current with high oceanic heat content. There is a little dry air on the west side of the system and this may keep Ike from really blowing up into a Rita/Katrina intensity in the central Gulf. Still expect Ike to landfall as a high end Cat 3 with 130mph sustained winds…although a low end cat 4 is possible.

As stated this is an extremely large hurricane and the effects will be very far reaching. Tropical storm force winds will extend outward 200-220 miles at landfall with hurricane force winds 80-90 miles. TS winds will impact nearly the entire area and hurricane force winds the SW 1/3rd of the area and well inland on the track.

Note: Typical wind decay will not hold for Ike given its accelerating speed at landfall…and damaging hurricane force winds will spread far inland along the track. The area bounded in the following line will likely see hurricane force winds: Freeport to Giddings to Gonzales to Rockport. TS force winds will likely extend inland to Dallas if not Oklahoma.

Impacts:

All kinds of new impacts will be coming…I will attempt to get these out by 600pm…all kinds of new wind and surge grids will be needed.

caonacl
09-10-2008, 08:10 PM
want to see something scary? pan to middle of page

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_v5d.html?extraprod=v5d#a_topad

MomCares
09-10-2008, 09:13 PM
update from Jeff Lindner, met with HCFCD:

Mandatory Evacuations---Galveston County

We DO NOT have time to get everyone out of the surge zones….it is very critical that inland residents shelter in place and let the low lying residents pass through…we must get them out of the 0-12 foot elevations before Friday at 1000am.

Please follow all evacuation advice…if told to leave do so…it will save your life.

Mandatory evacuation for W end Galveston Island, Bolivar Pen, Kemah, San Leon, 800am Thursday.

Numerous decisions coming out right now…Harris County leadership in planning meeting at this time.

Note: Fuel demand is rising very quickly in metro Houston area…closing in on 500% increase in demand…terminals are starting primary shut down procedures for strike of a major hurricane.

Aside:

I am being deployed to HCOEM (Houston Transtar) at 0600 Thursday morning e-mails will be very short and only carry the most important information.


MomCares

dyrt
09-10-2008, 09:26 PM
The evacuations of the Texas coast got seriously started today. Ike is an awesome storm but the huge human effort to get out of his way is just as awesome. Today, the first wave for refugees started arriving in the shelter cities. First came the special needs people from homes, hospitals, etc. Residents of "retirement" facilities were also arriving. Thousands of prisoners were being moved farther north too.

Tens of thousands of vehicles were on the road taking harried urbanites south to take care of vacation property and toys. There will be no quiet on the gulf plains tonight.

Tomorrow the roads will be packed with cars and trailers filled to the brim with stuff, towing boats, travel trailers etc. Over a thousand buses from San Antonio will be going back and forth for the next two days. Many other cities will also be sending fleets.

Gasoline trucks will be running around the clock to keep the filling stations supplied. The Red Cross, electrical companies and semi's filled with water and ice will have a better idea where to position their massive fleets to enter the damaged areas so they will be on the move too.

The last minute men will be fighting their way down to get their boats but but they may be too late already. At some point in the next 24 hours, some of the major roads will be northbound only. The southbound traffic will be carefully filtered. By Friday the exodus north will be immense and slow. The news helicopters will taking pictures of I-37 from Corpus Christi to San Antonio.

Dozens of schools have canceled their classes Friday across Texas so they can be prepped to be shelters for the fleeing hordes. The other shelters were hurriedly prepared today.

There remains a lot of uninformed and stupid people. One co-worker took Friday off so he could go surfing and attend a hurricane party. A young couple we know with a condo in a high rise on a barrier island were convinced their stuff would be safe because they were on the 5th floor.

In the final count, I would not be surprised to learn that 2 million people moved away from Ike's path. Texans learned a lot from Rita. It will be interesting to see how we deal with Ike.

rb.
09-10-2008, 10:01 PM
That is one HUGE freakin' storm. I hope you all stay safe down there. Sounds like your state is on the ball, dyrt.

gsgs
09-10-2008, 10:04 PM
forecast time in 6-hour intervals starting Sept.9,0300 UTC , last Sept.11,0300UTC
probabilities in percent


(1) probability of Ike becoming Cat4 or Cat5 in the next 120 hours
(2) probability that Ike will cause hurricane-strength winds in Buras
(3) probability that Ike will cause hurricane-strength winds in New Orleans
(4) probability that Ike will cause hurricane-strength winds in Galveston
(5) probability that Ike will cause hurricane-strength winds in Houston
(6) probability that Ike will cause hurricane-strength winds in Freeport
(7) probability that Ike will cause hurricane-strength winds in Port o Connor
(8) probability that Ike will cause hurricane-strength winds in Corpus Christi


(1)11,11,13,20,20,27,31,20
(2)03,03,03,03,02,02,03,03
(3)02,02,02,02,01,01,02,02
(4)08,08,09,14,13,20,25,33
(5)04,05,05,10,08,13,20,23
(6)09,10,10,16,16,23,30,33
(7)09,10,09,18,19,24,26,24
(8)07,09,08,11,11,17,15,09



probabilities that Ike will be Cat1,2,3,4,5 at landfall are given as:
8%,17%,38%,27%,4%




maximum NHC-windspeed-predictions in knots for future intervals of 12 hours
until predicted landfall given in intervals of 6 hours for Rita,2005 :


120,135,130,125,120
145,145,145,135,125
150,155,150,145,135
150,150,145,140,130
---,145,140,130,125
---,125,125,125,120
---,---,120,125,120
---,---,---,115,115
---,---,---,110,105
---,---,---,---,105



same for Ike:


065,070,090,100,105,100
070,075,090,100,105,105
075,080,090,100,105,105
---,080,090,095,105,110
---,085,095,105,110,115




intrade contracts for Ike making first landfall as Cat2 or worse
in US-state ...


http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=638944&z=1220791475109

Pablo Escobar
09-10-2008, 10:08 PM
Hurricane Ike shifted 50 miles closer to Galveston on Wednesday, prompting city officials to make mandatory what had been a voluntary evacuation of more than 10,000 residents on the low-lying western end of the island. City Manager Steve LeBlanc said a 9-foot to 11-foot tidal surge could hit Galveston Island.

Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas also called for a voluntary evacuation of the remainder of the island, the 10-mile stretch sheltered by a 17-foot seawall. Despite the call for a voluntary evacuation, Thomas said it was preferable for residents behind the seawall to shelter in place if possible.

Officials were criticized for ordering a mandatory evacuation when Hurricane Rita sideswiped Galveston in 2005 and were determined not to order an evacuation this year unless it was necessary, LeBlanc said.

Conditions as late as Wednesday morning made it appear that a mandatory evacuation of the entire island would be unnecessary, but now it's too late to order one, Thomas said.:eek::eek::eek:

"A mandatory evacuation at this time is not possible," Thomas said. "The window to do that is long past."

Hurricane Ike's final touchdown is proving a nail-biter for residents and officials along the Texas coastline.

And for a region already fatigued by the number of alerts and near misses of storms steaming into the Gulf of Mexico, that's a good thing because more people in the Galveston and Houston area are paying closer attention.

"I think with each little ratchet up in our direction, people are going 'That's going to change things,' " said Harris County Judge Ed Emmett.

Emmett stressed that no one should leave their home unless they are in danger of a storm surge.

"Most people in Harris County shouldn't evacuate in any case," he said. "Unless you are in danger of water coming into your house and I mean storm surge, not rainfall, you need to stay put."
they may regret saying this......

At 7 p.m. CDT, Ike was a Category 2 storm with winds near 100 mph. It was about 700 miles east of Brownsville and was moving northwest at 8 mph, after ravaging homes in Cuba and killing at least 80 people in the Caribbean.

Although there's nothing to keep Harris County residents from jumping the queue, and leaving now, Emmett asked that they stay off the roads to let Galveston County residents have the first chance to move to higher ground.

"We have to make sure that the folks at Galveston Island clear first," Emmet said. "They could easily be in harm's way."

Galveston officials earlier today urged the voluntary evacuation of more than 10,000 residents from the low-lying western end of the island where high tides, rain and large waves from Hurricane Ike could cause serious flooding.

Galveston Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas called for the evacuation following a special meeting of the City Council to declare a state of emergency and grant Thomas emergency powers.

Thomas was joined by Jamaica Beach Mayor Vic Pierson, who called for the voluntary evacuation of his city's 1,000 residents on the western end of Galveston Island.

Galveston City Manager Steve LeBlanc said tides ranging from 4 feet to 8 feet were expected to crest Saturday morning and combine with 3 to 5 inches of rain and heavy waves if Ike holds to its predicted course and comes ashore near Matagorda.

Low lying areas behind the 17-foot-high sea wall that protects the eastern part of the island also could flood, LeBlanc said.

Winds could reach hurricane strength of 74 mph, he said.

LeBlanc urged residents on the western end of the island to begin evacuating immediately. He estimated the West End population at more than 10,000, but the West Galveston Island Property Owners Association puts the number at more than 18,000.

Police and barricades will control access to the area west of the seawall, LeBlanc said.

He warned that those deciding to ride out the storm risk being stranded in high water and that police, emergency medical services and firefighters would be unable to reach them in an emergency.

Nearly all the homes on the West End are elevated, some as much as 20 feet, he said.

Thomas said a state of emergency has been declared by Galveston County, Port Bolivar, Kemah, Dickinson, Clear Lake and Tiki Island.

Brazoria County officials have called for a mandatory evacuation for the entire county effective 8 a.m. Thursday.

Some buses have evacuated those who cannot leave the area on their own to a Red Cross shelter in Belton.

Roadblocks are going in around Surfside Beach to make sure that those coming and going are residents.

The Red Cross this afternoon established shelters in Huntsville for Galveston residents fleeing from the storm. Evacuees need to go to a reception area on the northbound side of Interstate 45, south of Huntsville, at mile marker 101.They will be assigned and directed to a shelter. Other shelters are also available in Dallas.

Those evacuating from Brazoria County are encouraged to go to shelters in Bryan/College Station or Austin.

The Associated Press and Houston Chronicle reporter Richard Stewart in Brazoria County contributed to this report.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/5993388.html

gsgs
09-10-2008, 10:27 PM
> Officials were criticized for ordering a mandatory evacuation
> when Hurricane Rita sideswiped Galveston in 2005 and were
> determined not to order an evacuation this year unless it was
> necessary, LeBlanc said.

> Conditions as late as Wednesday morning made it appear that
> a mandatory evacuation of the entire island would be unnecessary,
> but now it's too late to order one, Thomas said.

> "A mandatory evacuation at this time is not possible," Thomas said.
> "The window to do that is long past."

why is it ? They could do it in New Orleans with Gustav.
Are they worse prepared, no buses or trains available,
not enough wide streets ?

of course, only if "necessary", but what is necessary ? it's subjective

SusyTX
09-10-2008, 10:34 PM
JWt,
I heard it on either WOAI, Kens5, or KSAT12, I can't remember which, because we were continually flipping back and forth...we don't have cable, so it had to be one of those stations. Now we're hearing depending which way it tracks we could get gusts up to 80mph or higher, and I believe that was if it was a Cat 3. The track seems to keep shifting, too...first we were to be on the bad side (east), but then we heard we may be on the west side and a little drier...but it keeps changing.

We've been through some nasty hurricanes while living on the east coast, but they were usually coming up the coast...this one is more of a direct hit and I have to admit has me a little spooked. I do know about your flooding concerns, it doesn't take much here to flood quickly. Our daughter is up in Austin and I'm concerned for her, too. We have friends living in trailer parks and they really need to get out.

We made one last Costco run (in Selma) for a little extra water. It was crowded, but they had the staff on hand. They had plenty of water, but were low on batteries (I heard them calling out for more to be brought in). We also gassed up the car and a 5-gal container for the shed...we were in line for gas for a long while, and about 1/3 of their pumps were out of gas - but gas was $1.33 for unleaded and that's the lowest I've seen around here.

We came home to find a reverse 911 messaged on our answering machine from Universal City Emergency Svcs encouraging everyone to prepare. I work at Ft Sam, we have an EOC set up in our office and are involved with emergency response efforts in San Antonio. People seem to be taking it very seriously. I truly hope you and yours will be okay.

SarahS
09-10-2008, 10:43 PM
$1.33 for unlead? I'd drive there for that!! Yippee for you! I hope all goes well with you and yours.

SusyTX
09-10-2008, 10:45 PM
For regular unleaded - sorry, should have added that. I don't know how long that will last, though...it was 12 to 20 cents higher everywhere else. I think we just made it before an inevitable price increase. Thanks for the well wishes, and we hope everyone in Ike's path will be safe.

SarahS
09-10-2008, 10:48 PM
Our unlead is more like $3.47, you're doing great with that!
I am very worried about Ike, and my thoughts are with everyone in his path... which includes me, although I'm on the low side. Gustav was fun enough, thank you!

JWt
09-10-2008, 11:26 PM
Thanks, Susy. I'll have to check it out.

We're about an hour, I think, to your northwest (as the crow flies--more if the crow has to drive on the freeway), so I gather we have more chance of being out of the immediate area--but at this point, who knows? Our local paper's weather guy wrote (for this morning's edition) that he really didn't know what would happen in this area--too many variables.

I guess most of our problem is that we understand earthquakes and blizzards, having lived with both of those...but neither of us has any experience with hurricanes. We're just not sure what to expect. My husband's usual method of dealing with the unknown is to pretend it isn't happening. (No comment.) Hopefully, this far inland, it will be some well-needed rain and nothing more.

My husband and one of my sons finally (humoring me) went out and started cutting a couple of trenches to guide the water around the house--it's mostly caliche, but they can go down about 4-6 inches. I hope that does it.

There are a lot of people coming to this area, as they did for Rita. I'm planning one last fresh-food trip to the store tomorrow after Band...I remember the stores being stripped of everything during Rita, not only because of the extra people but because trucks were diverted to larger cities to help out there. The churches are grabbing extra food, too, to be able to feed whomever they can. We've gassed up the cars, and have 10 extra gallons on hand, since evacuees need that, too, and it goes quickly.

I'm glad everyone your way is taking this seriously. Be safe!!

SusyTX
09-10-2008, 11:37 PM
Hi JWt,
The 1100 est report at NOAA actually looks a little better for us. They've just cancelled the contraflow on I-37. I think it's heading more toward Galveston/Houston. I don't think any of us can relax, though.

I remember the Rita evacuations, too. It was like locusts had descended between SA and Austin...there was no bottled water, most gas stations were empty, and hotels were full. Most canned food was gone, too. It was a real eye-opener.

Yep, we've got some caliche, too...horrible stuff. We did a little trenching, too. It sure can't hurt! We had the N'oreasters in Virginia and had to contend with the occassional blizzard. Like you, we were pretty used to dealing with those. The worst we got hurricane-wise was with Agnes in '72 which went up the Chesapeake Bay then came back down again...the problem was all the rain, so much so that it swamped the water treatment facilities and they had to shut down water because it became contaminated. No water = no flushing...we were without power and water for a week, but others fared worse. A lot of people learned the value of filling up the bathtub with water for flushing.

With any luck, Ike will hit a less populated area and fizzle out quickly...keeping fingers crossed!

Sonny
09-11-2008, 12:36 AM
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html)

http://icons-pe.wxug.com/graphics/rss/rssmini.gif (http://rss.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/rss.xml) Last Updated: 2:17 AM GMT on September 11, 2008 — Last Comment: 4:16 AM GMT on September 11, 2008


http://icons-pe.wxug.com/graphics/wu2/headerBlue-left.gif Ike intensifying explosively http://icons-pe.wxug.com/graphics/wu2/headerBlue-right.gif http://icons-pe.wxug.com/graphics/wu2/subBlue-left.gif http://icons-pe.wxug.com/graphics/wu2/subBlue-right.gif Posted by: JeffMasters (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html), 9:19 PM EDT on September 10, 2008
Hurricane Ike (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_5day.html?MR=1) is intensifying dramatically. The central pressure has dropped 11 mb in just four hours, and stood at 947 mb at 7 pm EDT. The latest Hurricane Hunter data show that the pressure is continuing to fall at a rapid pace. The winds have not caught up yet to the pressure fall, and remain at Catgeroy 2 strength. The satellite presentation of the hurricane has improved markedly, as Ike has walled off the dry air that was bothering it, and has built a solid eyewall of 9 miles diameter of very intense thunderstorms. The appearance of Ike on infrared satellite loops (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html) is similar to Hurricane Wilma during its rapid intensification phase, when Wilma became the strongest hurricane on record. Like Wilma, Ike has a very tiny "pinhole" eye, but the storm is huge in size. Ike has a long way to go to match Wilma, but I expect Ike will be at least a Category 3 hurricane by morning, and probably a Category 4.

gsgs
09-11-2008, 12:44 AM
but the NHC probability for Cat4 or worse just went down at 03:00UTC
to 20% (from 30% 6hours before)

Renegade
09-11-2008, 06:50 AM
Tropical Storm Public Advisory


Statement as of 4:00 am CDT on September 11, 2008

...Large Hurricane Ike continues west-northwestward over the
east-central Gulf of Mexico...

At 4 am CDT...0900 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning along the
northern Gulf of Mexico coast is extended northward and eastward to
the Mississippi-Alabama border...including the city of New Orleans
and Lake Pontchartrain. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect
from the Mississippi-Alabama border westward to east of Cameron
Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours.


A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Cameron Louisiana westward
to Port Mansfield Texas. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 400 am CDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Ike was located near
latitude 25.2 north...longitude 87.6 west or about 620 miles...995
km...east of Brownsville Texas and about 285 miles...460 km...
south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.


Ike is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr.
A general west-northwestward motion over the central and western
Gulf of Mexico is expected today and Friday. On this track the
center will be approaching the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast
late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ike is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale...and it could intensify into a category three hurricane over
the next day or two.

Ike is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extend
outward up to 115 miles...185 km...from the center...and tropical
storm force winds extend outward up to 255 miles...410 km.


An Air Force hurricane hunter plane reported a minimum central
pressure of 946 mb...27.94 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area. Above normal
tides of 2 to 4 feet are expected elsewhere along much of the
northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico during the next day or
so...but will be increasing along the western Gulf Coast as Ike
approaches.

Ike is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches over
southern Louisiana and the extreme northern Yucatan Peninsula.

Repeating the 400 am CDT position...25.2 N...87.6 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100
mph. Minimum central pressure...946 mb.


An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 700 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1000
am CDT.


$$
Forecaster Pasch/Brown

Renegade
09-11-2008, 06:50 AM
Hurricane Ike Discussion Number 41


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 11, 2008


Ike continues to exhibit some unusual structural characteristics.
Dropsonde and flight-level wind data indicate that the intensity is
still near 85 kt...which is anomalously low for the reported
central pressure. The latter value...946 mb...would normally
correspond to a borderline category 3/4 hurricane. The tropical
cyclone has a very large wind field...particularly over the
northern semicircle as observed by buoys and SHIPS over the
northern Gulf. However it continues to have a small inner core
with an eye just under 10 N mi in diameter. There has been a
double wind maximum...although hurricane hunter observations
suggest that the outer wind band is beginning to contract. Oceanic
conditions appear neutral along the path of Ike as it will likely
traverse just to the north of a couple of warm eddies over the
western Gulf. Global models continue to indicate a favorable
upper-level environment over the next day or two with modest
vertical shear and anticyclonic flow. Ike is forecast to
strengthen to major hurricane status prior to landfall...which is
similar to what was indicated in the previous official intensity
forecast.

Fixes from the current Air Force hurricane hunter mission indicate
that the motion has turned back to the west-northwest...I.E. 295/8.
The track models remain in good agreement on a continued west-
northwestward motion for the next 36-48 hours...to the south of a
strong mid-tropospheric ridge that extends from the southeastern
United States to Texas. Dynamical models predict that the portion
of the ridge over Texas will weaken in about 48 hours and this
would cause Ike to turn to the northwest and north. There
continues to be some disagreement among the models as to how soon
and how sharp of a turn will occur. However...the consensus of our
most reliable track forecast models is unchanged from the previous
advisory. Therefore I have made essentially no changes to the
official track forecast. This is between the latest HWRF
run...which is to the left of the official forecast...and the
latest GFDL run....which is to the right. In this case it is
particularly important not to focus on the exact forecast track
since damaging winds extend so far from the center.

The expansion of the 34-kt wind field over the northeast quadrant
necessitates an extension of the Tropical Storm Warning a little
father northward and eastward along the northern Gulf Coast.


Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 11/0900z 25.2n 87.6w 85 kt
12hr VT 11/1800z 25.7n 89.0w 90 kt
24hr VT 12/0600z 26.3n 91.0w 95 kt
36hr VT 12/1800z 27.1n 93.2w 105 kt
48hr VT 13/0600z 28.4n 95.2w 110 kt
72hr VT 14/0600z 32.5n 96.0w 40 kt...inland
96hr VT 15/0600z 37.0n 90.5w 25 kt...inland
120hr VT 16/0600z...absorbed into frontal zone


$$
forecaster Pasch/Brown

Renegade
09-11-2008, 06:51 AM
Hurricane Ike in Gulf of Mexico, headed for Texas
Thu Sep 11, 2008 5:10am EDT


By Chris Baltimore

HOUSTON (Reuters) - Hurricane Ike gathered strength as it churned through the Gulf of Mexico's warm waters on Thursday on a track that would skirt the heart of the U.S. offshore oil patch before slamming into the Texas coast late on Friday or early on Saturday.

Ike is a Category 2 storm with 100 mph (160 kph) winds and could come ashore as a ferocious Category 4 storm on the five-step intensity scale with winds of 132 mph (213 kph), the National Hurricane Center said.

But the latest projections pointed Ike toward the middle of the Texas coast, skirting to the west of the main region for offshore production in the Gulf, which provides a quarter of U.S. oil and 15 percent of its natural gas.

Crude oil prices were trading just above a five-month low of $101.36 per barrel set on Wednesday as weak demand and a strong dollar offset a surprise OPEC production cut agreement and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico that have cut deeply into U.S. energy supplies.

At 5 a.m. EDT on Thursday, the hurricane center said in its latest advisory Ike was 620 miles east of Brownsville, Texas, and about 285 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. It was moving west-northwest at 9 mph (15 kph).

New Orleans, still scarred by Hurricane Katrina, which killed 1,500 people and caused $80 billion in damage on the U.S. Gulf Coast in 2005, appeared to be out of danger.

However, the center early on Thursday extended a tropical storm warning as far east as the Mississippi-Alabama border, including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. A hurricane watch remained in effect from Cameron, Louisiana west to Port Mansfield, Texas.

Texas officials ordered some residents in low-lying Matagorda and Brazoria counties to evacuate. Mandatory evacuations had been illegal in Texas but the state changed its laws after Hurricane Rita in 2005. So far evacuation totals are nowhere near the 2 million people who fled Louisiana coastal cities in the path of Hurricane Gustav.

Other residents were boarding up homes and businesses to prepare for hurricane-force winds that could arrive on Friday.

"Right now, we have people coming in and out," said Steve Probert, who works at a hardware store in the resort community of Port Aransas, across the Laguna Madre from Corpus Christi. "They're buying everything we have under the sun."

President George W. Bush declared a federal emergency for Texas, allowing some federal disaster assistance.

BUSES NOT BODY BAGS

Ike's current track would see it hit the Texas coast just north of Corpus Christi, a major Gulf Coast oil refining hub.

About 250 miles of Texas coastline from Matagorda Bay to Brownsville on the Mexico border are on alert for possible mandatory evacuations due to wide uncertainty over the storm's path. A line of buses made their way from Corpus Christi to inland shelters as the city evacuated some elderly and sick residents.

Some residents in Brazoria County south of the low-lying coastal city of Galveston were ordered to evacuate.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry said that some resident would likely resist evacuation calls but said he wants to see "buses, not body bags." Perry put 1,350 buses on standby to carry possible evacuees.

"We must have passed 50 or more people taking their boats and probably every mobile home in the state was on the road," said Margaret Romero, 67, who evacuated from Corpus Christi on Wednesday. "Our entire street -- every house on our street was boarded up."

Torrential rains from the storm could be more damaging than its wind blasts, especially for heavily populated areas in the Rio Grand Valley which already took a soaking from Hurricane Dolly in July.

Ike could unleash up to four inches of rain on southern Louisiana, and produce storm surges up to five feet

above normal tide levels, along with large and battering waves in some parts of the Gulf on Thursday, the center forecast.

CUBA TAKES DIRECT HIT

In Cuba, big waves and storm surges were expected to subside, but heavy rains on the island's western end could produce flash floods and mudslides, it said.

Ike has already caused widespread damage in Cuba.

Few official figures have emerged, but state-run media showed a panorama of destruction across the island, still reeling from the more powerful Hurricane Gustav 10 days ago.

Ike struck eastern Cuba on Sunday with 120 mph (195 kph) winds and torrential rains that destroyed buildings, wiped out the electricity grid, toppled trees, leveled crops including sugar cane fields and turned rivers into roaring torrents.

A total of 2.6 million people were evacuated before Ike, or about 22 percent of the country's 11 million population, but officials said four people died in the eastern provinces.

Before Cuba, Ike hit Britain's Turks and Caicos Islands and the southern Bahamas as a Category 4 hurricane.

Floods triggered by its torrential rains were blamed for at least 71 deaths in Haiti, where Tropical Storm Hanna killed 500 people last week.

(Additional reporting by Jeff Franks, Esteban Israel, Marc Frank, Rosa Tania Valdes and Nelson Acosta in Havana, Jim Forsyth in San Antonio, Jim Loney in Miami; Editing by Doina Chiacu and Eric Walsh)
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN9645380320080911?sp=true

gsgs
09-11-2008, 06:56 AM
> could come ashore as a ferocious Category 4

"could" translates to 16% here. (according to NHC,09:00 UTC)

MomCares
09-11-2008, 10:28 AM
Mandatory Evacuation Order for all evac. zones in Brazoria County at 800am Thursday.

Mandatory Evacuation Orders for areas S of I-35 in Matagorda County.

Mandatory Evacuation Order for W end Galveston, Bolivar, Kemah, Dickinson, and other low lying areas of Galveston County starting at 800am Thursday.

All Tolls are waived on all Harris County Toll Roads

MomCares
09-11-2008, 10:29 AM
Mandatory Evacuation for Harris County for the following Zip Codes:

77058, 77059, 77062, 77520, 77546, 77571, 77586, 77598

Other other residents need to shelter in place...we must let the coastal folks get out.

Harris County govt and City of Houston will be closed Friday

MomCares
09-11-2008, 10:31 AM
AM Update from Jeff Lindner, met with the HCFCD:

Very dangerous hurricane heading for the upper TX coast

Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Residents in coastal evacuation zones need to heed all advice and leave if told to do so...it will save your life.

Folks we must let the coastal people evacuate through us...we are out of time for massive evacuations and must get the surge people out today...we are looking at 27 hours before the onset of TS force winds.

Current:

Ike has not intensified much overnight with the pressure rising a little to 946mb. The wind field as expanded yet again and now TS winds extend outward to 230 miles and Hurricane force winds 115 miles.

Track:

Track guidance is zeroing in on a landfall of this extremely dangerous hurricane between Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. There is a tight clustering in the models and forecast confidence is getting high that we are going to take a very hard hit.

Intensity:

Since Ike has failed to intensify much overnight the new forecast brings it in as a high end category 3 hurricane.

Impacts:

Matagorda County:

Catastrophic damage expected. Most structures below 15 feet elevation will be completely destroyed. Storm surge of 15-22 feet with wave action of 10 feet on top of that. Sustained winds of 110-125mph with gust to 155mph. Complete failure of most homes is likely along with entire power system.

Brazoria County:

Extreme damage expected. Most structures below 10 feet elevation will be completely destroyed. Storm surge of 15-22 feet with wave action of 10-15 feet on top of that. Surge will inundate nearly the entire southern 1/3rd to 1/2 of the county. Sustained winds of 110-125mph with gust to 155mph. Complete failure of most homes well inland from wind and entire power system.

Galveston County:

Extensive damage expected. Storm surge flooding of 12-18 feet with wave action of 10-15 feet on top of that. Sustained winds of 100-120mph. Extensive damage to homes from wind and surge is expected.

Harris County:

Extensive damage expected. Storm surge of 15-20 feet along the west coast of Galveston Bay with wave action of 4-8 feet on top of the surge. Extensive and life threatening surge greater than Hurricane Alicia and Carla along W Galveston Bay looks likely. Sustained winds of 100-120mph SE 1/2 of the county and 90-111mph across the rest of HC with gust to 140mph. Extensive roof and wall failures are likely along with massive power damage to the entire system and widespread heavy vegetation damage.

Fort Bend/Wharton County:

Extensive wind damage is expected. Sustained winds of 90-115mph with gust to 135mph. Extensive wind damage to homes...roofs and windows is expected with some complete failures possible.

Waller and Austin Counties:

Extensive wind damage is expected. Sustained winds of 85-100mph with gust to 120mph. Heavy wind damage to homes...some complete failures

Montgomery County:

Extensive wind damage is expected. Sustained winds of 75-95mph with gust to 110mph. Extensive tree fall is expected across the entire county.

Liberty County: Extensive wind damage is expected. Sustained winds of 75-95mph with gust to 110mph. Heavy wind damage to most structures.

Other:

Hurricane force winds will extend inland to College Station and Huntsville and likely further.

Most storm surge areas will be uninhabitable for several weeks.

Actions:

Folks this is a very serious hurricane threat.

Take all actions to protect your life and property.

If in a storm surge evacuation area...you must leave...it will save your life.

Numerous evacuation orders in in effect.

Multiple counties are enacting their reverse 911 systems to call their residents and urge evacuation

MomCares
09-11-2008, 10:39 AM
Did anyone read Isaac's Storm? I hope Galveston doesn't get hit as hard as it's sounding like it may.

Hope for continued eyewall replacement keeping intensity down, and a smooth evacuation today.


MomCares

rb.
09-11-2008, 11:18 AM
I didn't read it, but I did read something else about Galveston. Maybe it was in Michener's Texas? I would imagine anyone staying in Galveston must be shaking in their boots. Damn.

booger
09-11-2008, 11:23 AM
Did anyone read Isaac's Storm? I hope Galveston doesn't get hit as hard as it's sounding like it may.



I read that earlier this year. I thought it was a great read but there's some controversy over it regarding some assumptions he made or liberties he took, something like that, can't remember exactly off hand.

Beth, get ready for a special guest cuz I'm gonna send Ike more your way so we get the drier side over here. ;)

All of you Texas folks stay safe!

Potemkin
09-11-2008, 11:34 AM
Susy, would you mind telling me where you found that forecast? We're just northwest of you, and I'm not sure what to expect. My husband just shrugs and says, "Oh, nothing will happen." We've almost flooded from much less, and are surrounded by lots of large oak trees. Thanks.


http://www.houstonhidefromthewind.org/maps/SwathMap.jpg?1221146590

BoneDaddy
09-11-2008, 11:48 AM
They noaa.gov forcast has put the eye west of this last position.
I will be on the dirty side of this unless it track as above once again.
Should that happen, I'll be pretty close to the eye.

My generator is up north and will likely lose power.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W+gif/151313W_sm.gif

MomCares
09-11-2008, 02:52 PM
Jeff's noon update. IMHO, intensity forecasts are really up-in-the-air as Ike is not typical so far...

At 1000am a Hurricane Warning is issued from Baffin Bay, TX to Morgan City, LA

Large and dangerous hurricane approaching the upper TX coast.

Tides starting to rise along the coast with water now up to the base of the dunes along the west end.

Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. All preparations should be completed by 1000pm this evening.

Current:

Recon. reports the pressure has risen to 952mb up from 947mb and max flight level winds were only 89 kts which equals about 92mph at the surface with a .9 equation. Note surface pressure was taken from surface splash of dropsonde.

Track:

No major track shifts to the track. Still aimed at the Brazoria County coast. The model clustering is still in good agreement with Ike making landfall between Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. On the current track the hurricane will make landfall near the mouth of the San Bernard River and then track NNW across Fort Bend County and then N to NNE across Waller and NW Harris and then toward Huntsville.

Intensity:

Ike continues to exhibit an atypical hurricane structure with a very large wind field and several wind maximums. In fact the recon. found some of the strongest flight level winds around 100 miles N of the center. Additionally, the aircraft noted that winds above the surface are not really mixing down with 103kts, 100 miles N of the center and only around 85kts at the sea surface. The pressure is more like a weak category 4 hurricane and at any time Ike's wind field could respond to that lower pressure and intensify.

Note: Due to the dropsonde profiles...it should be strongly noted that winds at the higher floors of buildings will be much stronger than at the surface.

Note: TS force winds have now expanded to 275 miles out from the center and hurricane force winds 115 miles out from the center.

Actions:

All residents should be fully enacting their preparations.

All preparations need to be completed by 1000pm tonight.

All residents need to be in the shelter locations by 800am Friday morning.

All evacuations are in progress...traffic is flowing well on most freeways...Beltway 8 between I-45 and US 59 SW is very heavy and portions of I-45 are very heavy along with US 290.

http://traffic.houstontranstar.org/layers/

Note:

TS force winds will arrive on the coast around 800am and then 1000am in metro Houston. Hurricane force winds will begin late Friday afternoon and last into midday Saturday.

The duration of hurricane and TS force winds will be very long...24-28 hours for TS force and 8-12 hours for hurricane force.

Will try and get new wind and surge updates out late this afternoon.

MomCares
09-11-2008, 04:22 PM
Is that an eye starting to show up in the Visible?

If so, I'd think it's not good news for future intensity.

So far the saving grace of this storm has been its odd organization. I was hoping that could continue to landfall...


MomCares

booger
09-11-2008, 04:57 PM
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

< blah blah blah >

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST FORECAST BRINGS IKE INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AS A
TROPICAL STORM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AROUND 10 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. GIVEN THE
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS...SEVERAL AREA RIVERS WILL LIKELY REACH
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOOD CONDITIONS.

SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40 MILES AN HOUR WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
CIRCULATION APPROACHES. THE THREAT OF A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.

booger
09-11-2008, 04:58 PM
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
347 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

< blah blah blah >

* FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

* 2 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY AS IKE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND INTO ARKANSAS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.
RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN IF THE PROJECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COME TO FRUITION.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP.

blue gecko
09-11-2008, 05:01 PM
I read that earlier this year. I thought it was a great read but there's some controversy over it regarding some assumptions he made or liberties he took, something like that, can't remember exactly off hand.

Beth, get ready for a special guest cuz I'm gonna send Ike more your way so we get the drier side over here. ;)

All of you Texas folks stay safe!

Gee Thanks Boog.

Will be on pins and needles as this thing comes in. DH is leaving just west of San Antonio Sat am and like Pecos Bill he'll be riding the storm in. LOL

booger
09-11-2008, 05:12 PM
Gee Thanks Boog.

Will be on pins and needles as this thing comes in. DH is leaving just west of San Antonio Sat am and like Pecos Bill he'll be riding the storm in. LOL

He's gonna get whomped the whole way! Is he driving or flying? If driving, tell me it's not on a bike. :rolleyes:

JWt
09-11-2008, 06:26 PM
Thanks, Potemkin. That's a good, clear map...if Ike goes there. For your sake, I hope he doesn't. That scenario is scary.

It shows us in the clear, but supermarket shelves were emptying this afternoon. We're now expecting 6 - 8 guests from Houston this weekend. We got on I10 today and passed caravans of ambulances from New Mexico and points west.

Potemkin
09-11-2008, 06:30 PM
Thanks, Potemkin. That's a good, clear map...if Ike goes there. For your sake, I hope he doesn't. That scenario is scary.
.

It looks like the eye will now pass right over my house.

100-125mph winds.

Johnny
09-11-2008, 06:31 PM
Gee Thanks Boog.

Will be on pins and needles as this thing comes in. DH is leaving just west of San Antonio Sat am and like Pecos Bill he'll be riding the storm in. LOL

Boy, he should give it 12 to 24 hours but then they may not be "allowing" any travel at all. Keep us posted.

MomCares
09-11-2008, 06:33 PM
We can still hope (and history suggests this hope isn't unreasonable for Gulf storms) that Ike surprises everyone and makes a last-minute shift to the north (right) so Galveston and Houston can be well to the south of the storm.


MomCares

Potemkin
09-11-2008, 06:37 PM
They are saying it might still be a Cat 1 by the time it gets south of Dallas.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/vis-l.jpg

MomCares
09-11-2008, 06:52 PM
They are saying it might still be a Cat 1 by the time it gets south of Dallas.

An excellent plan... but I hope that possibility doesn't lure anyone into staying put rather than evacuating. We've seen storms explode just before making landfall.


MomCares

Potemkin
09-11-2008, 06:55 PM
It looks people are getting a jump on evacuation instead of waiting like Hurricane Rita a few years ago.

MomCares
09-11-2008, 07:10 PM
It looks people are getting a jump on evacuation instead of waiting like Hurricane Rita a few years ago.
I sure hope it's virtually everyone from low-lying areas.

Wasn't it illegal in Texas to declare mandatory evacuation until after Rita? Hopefully people have learned through experience to err on the side of safety.


MomCares

blue gecko
09-11-2008, 07:35 PM
He's gonna get whomped the whole way! Is he driving or flying? If driving, tell me it's not on a bike. :rolleyes:

He's driving. I'll bet he leaves early.

MomCares
09-11-2008, 07:56 PM
4 P.M. CDT 9/11/2008 HURRICANE IKE UPDATE #44

For official information, please visit the National Hurricane Center (RSMC-Miami) at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov or local emergency management officials.

+++ Ike is expected to strike Texas Saturday morning +++ Despite not yet intensifying, it is expected to be similar to Hurricane Carla in terms of size and intensity +++ Significant surge expected for southern Louisiana starting later today
+++ Tides high along entire Gulf Coast.

Do not focus on the forecast track. Hurricane force winds extend more than 100 miles from the center.

Please consult with local emergency management officials for any evacuation information. If you are under a mandatory evacuation, you need to comply with the order. Failure to do so may cost you your life.

Expected land impacts for duration of storm:

Gulf coast east of Louisiana: Tidal surge heights of 3-5 feet with higher waves. Some flooding already reported

Louisiana: Tropical storm force winds and tidal surges up to 7 feet with higher waves east of Morgan City. Surges approaching 15 feet in western Louisiana along with hurricane force winds. Severe damage to coastal areas expected

Texas: Wind gusts over 130 mph. Tidal surges approaching 20 feet. Total destruction of entire coastline at and east of landfall, with possible exception of portion of Galveston Island protected by the sea wall. Extensive wind damage to inland areas.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MATAGORDA, TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY, LOUISIANA. Hurricane Conditions are possible and Tropical Storm Conditions are expected from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Morgan City and from Matagorda to the Baffin Bay in south Texas. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center or local emergency management officials for the official watches and warnings.

Currently, the center of Hurricane Ike is located near 26.0N and 89.4W. This places the center about 400 miles SE of Galveston, TX. The motion is to the WNW near 10 mph. This motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. As Ike nears Texas, it is expected to turn more northerly. On this track, Ike is expected to strike the upper Texas coast early Saturday. However, the effects will begin spreading into Louisiana tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph. The pressure is estimated at 950 mb. Ike is expected to resume an intensification trend within the next 12 hours and become a major hurricane before striking Texas. It continues to have the potential to strike at category 4 intensity.

Next Update: 7 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

MomCares
09-11-2008, 07:57 PM
He's driving. I'll bet he leaves early.
It sounds like it's already too late for him to leave early.

I know you will encourage him to make safe choices, and keep us posted if possible.


MomCares

SarahS
09-11-2008, 08:06 PM
BG, has he left yet?

SusyTX
09-11-2008, 08:06 PM
San Antonio is now expected to feel less effects if it stays on its current track, but I worry for Houston/Galveston. We are seeing plenty of evacuees here, and I hope everyone tries to get out...that is one scarey storm.

occupant
09-11-2008, 08:43 PM
Pote, you're not planning on riding out this storm?:confused1:

blue gecko
09-11-2008, 09:03 PM
BG, has he left yet?

I just talked to him and he's leaving in the morning. Wise decision.

LvDemWings
09-11-2008, 09:34 PM
I was hoping this would take a southerly jog. I have family in Longview that are going to have wet feet and know several people in Morgan City. This will be a long weekend of worry.

dyrt
09-11-2008, 09:44 PM
It looks people are getting a jump on evacuation instead of waiting like Hurricane Rita a few years ago.I hope so. Thousands of people lucked out that day when Rita went further east.

I think the authorities have a good plan and are ready but the behavior of the people in the Houston area is a big question mark. Friday the 12th is destined to be a very important day for about 5 million people.

I am hoping that Ike weakens a lot before coming ashore.

stephanie
09-11-2008, 09:48 PM
I hope so. Thousands of people lucked out that day when Rita went further east.

Except maybe for the folks who lived in Holly Beach.

http://oldblog.realcajunrecipes.com/images/hb-after.jpg


Yes there used to be a town there.

Teal
09-11-2008, 09:50 PM
Just got an email from the airline, my Atlanta to DFW Sunday AM is cancelled.

Teal
09-11-2008, 09:59 PM
They are saying it might still be a Cat 1 by the time it gets south of Dallas.


An excellent plan... but I hope that possibility doesn't lure anyone into staying put rather than evacuating. We've seen storms explode just before making landfall.

Momcares, what Pote means is that it could be a Cat 1 by the time it gets to Dallas. Dallas is 4 1/2 freekin' hours drive from the coast!

Potemkin
09-11-2008, 10:06 PM
Pote, you're not planning on riding out this storm?:confused1:

Yes, I will be here.

I am an old hand at this.

Plus, who would giv eyou on site report?

MomCares
09-11-2008, 10:32 PM
Momcares, what Pote means is that it could be a Cat 1 by the time it gets to Dallas.
Thanks, Teal... I was thinking he said Houston and was referring to the fact that Ike's looked really disorganized most of today.

The good news is... it still looks pretty disorganized, so maybe it won't strengthen and will be a breeze by the time it imacts Dallas.

I still have a feeling it may swing far northeast before landfall.

Here's hoping...


MomCares

SarahS
09-11-2008, 10:54 PM
BG, thank goddess he's leaving earlier!! Tell him our thoughts will be with him on his travels!

D. Gale
09-11-2008, 11:57 PM
:eek: I've been coned! :eek:

eta: (okay, so it's not really a "hurricane" by the time it gets to me -- details, details.)

Renegade
09-12-2008, 06:34 AM
Tropical Storm Public Advisory


Statement as of 4:00 am CDT on September 12, 2008

...Ike gets a little stronger...forecast to become a major
hurricane...


a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to
Baffin Bay Texas. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the
coast in the warning area later today. Preparations to protect life
an property in the Hurricane Warning area should be rushed to
completion.


A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Baffin Bay to
Port Mansfield Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect
from east of Morgan City to the Mississippi-Alabama border...
including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 400 am CDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Ike was located near
latitude 26.7 north...longitude 91.6 west or about 365 miles...585
km...east of Corpus Christi Texas and about 265 miles...425 km...
southeast of Galveston Texas.


Ike is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr. A
turn toward the northwest is expected later today...with a turn
toward the north expected on Saturday. On the forecast track...the
center of Ike will be very near the Upper Texas coast by late today
or early Saturday. However...because Ike is a very large tropical
cyclone...weather will deteriorate along the coastline today...long
before the center reaches the coast.


Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph...
165 km/hr...with higher gusts. Ike is a category two hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours...and Ike is forecast to become a
major hurricane before the center reaches the coast.


Ike remains a very large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds
extend outward up to 120 miles...195 km...from the center...and
tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275 miles...445 km.
An oil platform in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico recently
reported sustained winds of 89 mph...144 km/hr...at an elevation of
400 feet.


The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane
hunters is 953 mb...28.14 inches.


Coastal storm surge flooding of up to 20 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the east of where the center of Ike makes
landfall...extending a greater than usual distance from the center
due to the large size of the cyclone. Surge flooding of up
to 25 feet...and possibly higher...could occur at the heads of bays.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous waves...can be expected
within the Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf
Coast. Above normal tides in the eastern Gulf of Mexico should
gradually subside over the next day or so.


Ike is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches over
eastern Texas and extreme southwestern Louisiana...with isolated
amounts of 15 inches possible.


Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of southern
Louisiana and extreme southern Mississippi. Isolated tornadoes are
possible tonight over portions of southwestern Louisiana and
southeastern Texas.


Repeating the 400 am CDT position...26.7 N...91.6 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105
mph. Minimum central pressure...953 mb.


An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 700 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1000
am CDT.


$$
Forecaster Beven

Renegade
09-12-2008, 06:35 AM
Hurricane Ike Discussion Number 45


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 12, 2008


an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft reported 700 mb
flight-level winds of 107 kt northeast of the center and SFMR-based
surface winds of 92 kt to the north of the center. Additionally...
a dropsonde northeast of the center suggests surface winds of 85-90
kt. Based on this...the initial intensity is increased to 90 kt.
Although Ike has strengthened slightly...the strongest winds are
still well-removed from the center...occurring about 50-60 N mi
away in the northern semicircle. The latest pressure reported by
the aircraft was 953 mb.

Ike wobbled a little westward during the past several hours...but
appears to have resumed a motion of 290/11. There is little change
in the forecast philosophy since the last advisory. Ike is moving
around the periphery of a large mid/upper-level ridge over the
southeastern United States toward a break caused by a trough over
the southwestern United States. Ike should turn northward during
the next 36 hr...then accelerate northeastward into the westerlies
thereafter. All guidance agrees with this scenario...although the
GFS calls for a more westward motion before landfall and a slower
northeastward motion after recurvature. The new forecast track
generally follows the model consensus...being nudged a little to
the left of the previous track based on the initial position...and
being nudged a little to the right after 36 hr.

The SHIPS model diagnostics and analyses from cimms at the
University of Wisconsin suggest that Ike is undergoing about 15 kt
of northerly wind shear. The SHIPS model forecasts some northerly
shear to persist until landfall. That...combined with the lack of
an inner core...suggests slow strengthening at best. However...Ike
is producing abundant strong convection near and south of the
center...and the shear has not stopped the storm from strengthening
this morning. The GFDL and HWRF models forecast some modest
strengthening before landfall...with the GFDL forecasting an
intensity of just over 100 kt. Based on this...the intensity
forecast calls for Ike to become a major hurricane in about 24 hr.
Ike should weaken after landfall...and it is forecast to lose
tropical characteristics in about 72 hr as it merges with a frontal
system.


Regardless of where the center of Ike makes landfall...the effects
will be felt at large distances from the center due to the very
large size of the cyclone.


Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 12/0900z 26.7n 91.6w 90 kt
12hr VT 12/1800z 27.4n 93.2w 95 kt
24hr VT 13/0600z 29.0n 94.8w 100 kt
36hr VT 13/1800z 31.3n 95.7w 55 kt...inland
48hr VT 14/0600z 34.4n 94.7w 35 kt...inland
72hr VT 15/0600z 41.0n 84.0w 30 kt...inland extratropical
96hr VT 16/0600z...absorbed in frontal zone


$$
forecaster Beven

gsgs
09-12-2008, 06:39 AM
$20-$30B expected damage, I read somewhere

Susie
09-12-2008, 06:48 AM
Yes, I will be here.

I am an old hand at this.

Plus, who would giv eyou on site report?

At least tell us that you are far from water and at least twenty metres above sea level...please.

flourbug
09-12-2008, 08:06 AM
He's high above sea level, in a very strong house, and like a good prepper set to SIP. But its a BIG hurricane so I'm not sleeping easy until he tells us he's come through it okay.

occupant
09-12-2008, 09:55 AM
We've never been to Texas, so didn't realize that Dallas is a 4 1/2 mi. drive from the coast:o Maybe just a wind/ rain event, with 2 million spectators in town, for Fart.

Potemkin
09-12-2008, 09:59 AM
At least tell us that you are far from water and at least twenty metres above sea level...please.

Thanks for asking Susie. I am a Boy Scout from way back.

I just did our normal "if you are off work go the the coffee shop with the dog" trip. (Off day today. Every professional office is shut down and everything else closes at 2pm)

Preparations look better than they did during Hurricane Rita. The things you would normally think would be gone are gone. (I don't need anything I was just looking.)

There are a few panicked sheep that decided not to do anything until this morning looking for gas, batteries, bread, PB&J for sandwiches, ice, etc.

All of that stuff is long gone and won't be restocked at least until Monday if the situation allows. Many stores are just closing at 2pm and taking Sunday as an off day.

I did find the bakery near us interesting. After all of the bread was stripped from the grocery stores he was baking up like gangbusters selling loaves. He was additionally taking orders for loaves of break for 8AM pickup today.

It looks like he had a lot of orders even thought his bread is normally around $3.50 a loaf. (Texas has a No Gouging law so you can't raise prices. Those are his prices for a loaf of break.)

He was baking all night to fill orders.

Potemkin
09-12-2008, 10:10 AM
Don't focus just on Houston! Think about all of those poor people in East Texas and West Louisiana on the "dirty side".

Look at this NOAA SLOSH model. They are predicting 25-28ft storm surge in that area.

One of the biggest gasoline refinery is in the Port Arthur area and it is being shut down as we speak.

You can't just shut down and start up a refinery. Expect gas and other hydrocarbon byproducts to be disrupted.

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2008/09/post_49.html

Big detailed map here: http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/sloshguidance091208a.gif

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/sloshguidance091208a.gif

MomCares
09-12-2008, 10:11 AM
The added visible organization this morning isn't a good sign, plus that little jog south makes the hope of Ike landing far northeast of Galveston seem more remote. Darn.

Hopefully today will bring more encouraging developments.

Any news of whether evacuations are reaching completion this morning?


MomCares

Potemkin
09-12-2008, 10:11 AM
Flooding expected from rainfall. YOW!

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/d12_fill091208a.jpg

Potemkin
09-12-2008, 10:15 AM
Any news of whether evacuations are reaching completion this morning?

Houston area seems to be OK.

Anyone who wanted to get out, got out.

To be honest, I don't think many people left. I would bet a lot of people got complacent and decided to stay when they should leave.

Everyone remembers Hurricane Rita when everyone panicked when Katrina was fresh on their minds. There have also been some near misses since them.

I would bet if this think hits Houston dead on, and the power goes off, there are going to be a lot of hot, hungry people for several weeks.

The power company is projecting that if it is a direct strike, power in a lot of areas may be off for up to 2 weeks.

MomCares
09-12-2008, 10:16 AM
Does anyone know what % of Galveston would be underwater if there's really a 20' storm surge?


MomCares

lilly
09-12-2008, 10:17 AM
I'll always remember two films that featured hurricanes when I was a kid. Hurricane with John Hall, and Key Largo with Humphrey Bogart.

The hurricanes that came my way only knocked down trees. I can't even imagine how dreadful it must be to go through something like Galveston did in the past(if you survived).

Have an aquaintance who flew back to the Texas coast to prepare for Ike with his family.

My thoughts are with them.

Potemkin
09-12-2008, 10:19 AM
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5995957.html

Coast Guard says it can't remove crew of stranded ship

Time running out for special-needs evacuees, Harris County officials warn
By ALLAN TURNER and MIKE TOLSON Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle
Sept. 12, 2008, 9:10AM



A Cypriot freighter loaded with industrial coke is wallowing helplessly in growing seas today after losing power about 90 miles southeast of Galveston as Hurricane Ike continues its approach, the Coast Guard reported.

Coast Guard officials said there is little they can do to rescue the ship's 22 crewmembers and the vessel simply will have to ride out the storm.

The Antalina radioed for assistance about 4 a.m. today, said Lt. Commander Lamar Johnson. The 584-foot freighter reportedly had departed Port Arthur hours before it became stranded.

"It's sitting in the water with a Category 2 storm behind it," Johnson said. "This could be a very dangerous situation."

Coast Guard officials abandoned plans to remove the crew with helicopters after determining that the aircraft were not available.

"We don't have the air assets," said Chief Warrant Officer Lionel Bryant. "It's a tough situation."

Officials said the crew reported no inuries or medical emergencies.

While grappling with that situation, Coast Guard officials also have received reports that as many as 100 people were stranded in various locations on the Bolivar Peninsula. The Coast Guard's lone helicopter was dispatched to investigate the unconfirmed reports.

Meanwhile, at 8 a.m. today, before a drop of rain had fallen, storm surge appeared to have engulfed 50 percent of Surfside Beach, officials there said.

Gulf waters flowed into streets and yards and lapped at the 10-foot-tall stilts that supported many of the homes.

"This is a quaint older town," said Peggy Llwewellyn, a city council member in that Brazoria County town. "We have a lot of older homes. I am worried about them not being built to the standards of today."

Police Chief Randy Smith said authorities believe some people remain in the city. Officers this morning planned a door-to-door search for holdouts.

This morning's developments lent impetus to the fear that, after 25 years of slight brushes, near misses, out-and-out fizzles and false alarms, Greater Houston faces the real possibility of a disasterous hit from a major by Saturday morning.

But it isn't only the wind and rain that concern local and national meteorologists. It's also Ike's wide berth and its potential for a 20-foot storm surge.

The surge brought about a strong warning from the National Weather Service for people living in low-lying communities.

"A storm of this size is able to bring more wind over a surface of water," said Patrick Blood, a NWS meteorologist. "You can imagine what a 20-foot wall of water can do to a community."

Late Thursday, officials were eyeing coastal towns from Matagorda to Galveston Island, all under mandatory evacuation. Residents, living directly on the coast outside the protection of a seawall, are sure to "face certain death" if they fail to evacuate, Blood said.

Mayor Bill White and Harris County Judge Ed Emmett this morning renewed the call for residents living in designated ZIP codes endangered by the storm to flee.

"This is a serious event," White told those residents. "If you had a plan that you were going to wait it out in place, that may have made sense yesterday. It does not make sense now. Don't wait until noon to decide whether to evacuate."

Emergency officials said 286 people who had requested assistance with evacuation have been removed from their homes. Eighty-six more still waited for evacuation at midmorning.

Officials said people in the evacuation zones needing assistance in fleeing their homes should telephone 311. That emergency line will stop accepting calls at 10 a.m. today.

The flight from endangered areas thus far has gone smoothly, they said. Traffic generally has been light. Many service stations that were running low on fuel Thursday have had their supplies replenished overnight.

Hurricane Ike spent Thursday continuing on a path toward landfall somewhere near Galveston early Saturday morning. Boasting 100 mph winds, which could intensify closer to shore, the storm has become a serious enough threat for mandatory evacuation orders to go out in Galveston, Brazoria, Jefferson, Orange, Chambers and Matagorda counties, and to the 245,000 residents of the vulnerable parts of Harris County.

Even early this morning, nearly a full day before landfall, Galveston could already see Ike's power. At 5:30 a.m. today, wind was gusty along Galveston's Seawall Boulevard.

In front of the St. Luis Hotel, waves were breaking just above the city's 17-feet-tall protective seawall. At 69th Street and Seawall, The spray from breaking waves was as high as the top of the traffic signals while water was covering several lanes of the west end of 69th.

Forecasters acknowledged there is a chance Ike will veer to the east today, much as Rita did in 2005. That scenario would spare the Houston area extensive damage. But most of the computer models Thursday night were still indicating something much worse for the nation's fourth largest city and its coastal neighbors to the south.

"I want to emphasize what a dangerous storm this is going to be," said Gov. Rick Perry.

Ike's landfall is expected late today or early Saturday but will be preceded by tropical storm-force winds as early as late afternoon in land, but before noon in coastal areas.

At 7 a.m. today, Hurricane Ike was about 230 miles southeast of Galveston. Sustained winds were clocked at 105 mph, and hurricane-force winds were reported 120 miles from the center.

The storm was moving northwest at 13 mph and was expected to turn northwest today.

Coastal residents responded to the threat, albeit with less of the frenzy and hysteria that accompanied widespread evacuations in advance of Rita.

"The vast majority of people have heeded the recommendations to evacuate in the storm surge areas and traffic is moving although there are some bottlenecks on I-45, sometimes it's stalled vehicles," said Houston Mayor Bill White. "Then it tends to bottleneck . . . you do have some places where lanes narrow or there are crossings."

White said a decision on contraflow will depend on how many people decide to leave this morning.

"We will monitor that throughout this evening, and we have cameras up in Transtar," White said. "Most Houstonians outside the mandatory evacuation areas have either been prepared in their house, or have moved within the city, but are not placing stress on the freeways."

White said overall things appear to be going better than they did three years ago.

"Though there have been glitches such as a continuing backlog of fuel at the state level, I've observed people at all levels of government federal, state and local appear much more prepared than several years ago," he said. "We've seen a lot more resources available from the state of Texas and the federal government."

Though state and local officials have spent post-Rita years improving evacuation plans, they have also made a point of not encouraging people to leave who don't need to. Harris County Judge Ed Emmett bluntly said those not living where an evacuation order was issued should stay put.

While those doing so rushed to supermarkets to stock up on hurricane essentials, and power company executives organized the staging of repair crews, the question of how much of either would be needed absorbed forecasters and hurricane specialists for much of the day.

Computer models that had previously predicted Ike's landfall closer to Matagorda Bay changed as it began to drift farther eastward. The possibility of that drift continuing might lead to landfall closer to High Island, which means the Golden Triangle would bear the brunt of the storm.

Although conditions were favorable for intensification, Ike didn't strengthen appreciably on Thursday, leaving it an open question as to whether the storm would make landfall as a major hurricane.

Nevertheless the storm was exceptionally large, covering the Gulf of Mexico and producing large waves. As a result forecasters said Ike should produce a massive storm surge, perhaps 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels to the east of its landfall location.

The storm's change of direction ruined Galveston's carefully laid evacuation plans and delayed the mandatory evacuation order, which was issued Thursday by the city's mayor, Lyda Ann Thomas. Mary Jo Naschke, spokeswoman for the mayor, said that as late as Wednesday city officials were convinced that the storm would miss the island. As the storm moved east, an expected storm surge of from 9 feet to 11 feet became 11 feet to 18 feet.

The National Weather Service, whose reports often contain only the dry language of meteorology, was discernibly more excited in its 8:19 p.m. bulletin:

"Life threatening inundation likely!" the service said a statement directed at those living beyond the protection of the sea wall and close to where Ike comes ashore. "All neighborhoods ... and possibly entire coastal communities ... will be inundated during the period of peak storm tide. Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one- or two-story homes will face certain death."

Cars leaving Galveston after the late evacuation order had no noticeable effect on traffic in Harris County, according to Transtar, which monitors traffic in the Greater Houston area. That may be because the order was far from universally obeyed. Naschke said many locals were ignoring the evacuation order this time and taking their chances because of memories of grueling evacuation journeys that lasted 20 hours to 30 hours in 2005.

The city also spent the day scrambling to evacuate about 3,000 residents by bus to shelters in Austin. Officials said the state donated more than 100 buses for the evacuation, enough that 30 buses held in reserve were not used.

More than 8,000 people rushed to the phone and dialed the city's 311 line after they heard nine ZIP codes 77507, 77058, 77059, 77062, 77520, 77546, 77571, 77586 and 77598 were placed in a mandatory evacuation zone on Thursday.

White said about 250,000 people were evacuated from the recommended zip codes in Harris County.

"And that does not include the many coastal counties," said White.

About 300 special-needs evacuees have been taken to Dallas.

Emmett said there has not been a need for contraflow lanes since only two significant traffic bottlenecks were found Thursday one on the North Freeway between Lake Woodlands Pkwy and FM 1488 and one on the Katy Freeway between Katy and Brookshire.

He said that DPS is working to alleviate congestion in those areas.

White said late Thursday the city will not call for any additional evacuations, noting that it would be far more dangerous for people to be on the road during the storm.

White and Emmett said there is an ample supply of fuel in the area and that they are working to address "spot shortages."

Both also said local officials are prepared to deal with the storm and the aftermath and encouraged residents to comply with directions from local officials.

"Nature doesn't always comply with the best laid plans," White said.

Emmett said those people who had not previously registered with the state's 211 system, to now call Houston's 311 line. The pre-registration program was started after Hurricane Rita to help the officials identify the elderly and disabled and those without transportation before a storm occurs so help can reach them.

But when news that the 211 list was closed and those who had procrastinated until now had to call the city, it was deluged with callers, causing a delay as 311 workers and Metro sorted out how many of the 8,000 actually were in the evacuation zones. About 400 were.

Medical evacuations from coastal hospitals and those immediately inland began late Wednesday. Memorial Hermann sent all 130 patients from its southeast campus near Pearland to other facilities in the hospital system. About 30 critical patients were airlifted late Wednesday and the rest were sent to sister hospitals by ambulance, spokeswoman Alex Rodriguez said.

The Harris County Hospital District shut down its specialty hospital, Quentin Mease near the University of Houston, and sent 27 patients to Ben Taub General Hospital. LBJ General Hospital also will remain open.

"During a storm of this magnitude, it's easier for us to manage two hospitals instead of three, especially since our Quentin Mease Hospital is prone to flooding," said Carol Oddo, vice president of patient and public affairs.

Local hospitals, including those in the Texas Medical Center, will remain open and were preparing for up to three days with skeleton crews. Emergency rooms remain open across the region. Hospital officials are also reminding residents that their facilities are not shelters.

Preparing for the worst, Emmett declared a "state of disaster" in Harris County on Thursday, granting him wide-ranging powers to control evacuations, rescue efforts and the closure of county facilities. In addition, the declaration prevents local merchants from taking advantage of Hurricane Ike by charging exorbitant prices for emergency supplies.

County Attorney Mike Stafford said the declaration allows his office to file suit against merchants or contractors who charge exorbitant or excessive fees. Stafford's office may also seek penalties up to $20,000 or, if the victim is over 65, up to $250,000. Stafford recommends that consumers who believe they are being overcharged keep all receipts and file complaints with his office after Ike has passed.

The disaster declaration remains in effect for seven days, unless extended by Commissioners Court.

gsgs
09-12-2008, 10:22 AM
here you can see life TV from Galveston:
http://www.khou.com/video/?nvid=178826&live=yes&noad=yes
(hattip Tempest)

Potemkin
09-12-2008, 10:24 AM
Does anyone know what % of Galveston would be underwater if there's really a 20' storm surge?


The Galveston seawall is 17" but it doesn't cover the entire island.

http://www.therealgalveston.com/Seawall.html

Renegade
09-12-2008, 10:25 AM
well, your phone system should be back up quick as I must have passed a couple of hundred AT&T trucks heading west yesterday on I-10....

Potemkin
09-12-2008, 10:27 AM
http://blogs.chron.com/hurricanes/2008/09/tired_of_running_they_plan_to.html

Tired of running, they plan to ride out this storm

David Holmen, along with his wife, uncle and three children, decided to ride out the storm in their Galveston home on Wimcrest Road, about 10 miles inland.

They have placed their generator and supplies in their attic, planning to keep an eye on the water level and hope for the best.

``I think we are very, very well prepared,'' said Holmen's wife, 35-year-old Gena Anderson. ``I think we have pretty much everything we need.''

The family's experience evacuating for Hurricane Rita in 2005 influenced their decision, said Holmen, 36. They were ``tired of running'' after being stuck for 17 hours on the highway and watching tensions flare as people fought over supplies at gas stations.

``I saw someone pull a gun out,'' Holmen said.

His uncle, 40-year-old Pete Moralez, added, ``It wasn't so much Mother Nature as human nature that scared us.''

The family's home was built in 1959 and, Holmen hopes, is sturdy. But, he noted, ``I have already got water standing in my streets.''

The family stood near the seawall before 8 a.m. today, watching waves crash. Some were so large they scared 10-year-old Angelena.

``She started crying and said 'Let's go,''' Holmen said.

The whole family, after seeing a headline predicting ``certain death'' for some in coastal areas Thursday night, wondered if they should go.

In they end, they did not.

-- Lindsay Wise

MomCares
09-12-2008, 10:35 AM
'Certain Death' Warning for Scoffers of Galveston Mandatory Evacuation
Friday, September 12 2008 @ 02:38 AM EDT
Edited by: Michael Hess
http://bbsnews.net/article.php/20080912023823427

Storm Surge to be a Major Factor with Hurricane Ike
NOAA Tropical Cyclone (Hurricane) Surge Example Graphic.

BBSNews 2008-09-12 -- By Michael Hess. In an unusually harsh weather statement yesterday morning the National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston Texas said that residents of Galveston who did not heed mandatory evacuation orders would face "certain death" if they tried to weather the storm in "single family one or two story homes".

CNN's Anderson Cooper and Bloomberg news reported the warning as breaking news in the evening Thursday but it was actually issued at 10:34 am Eastern Time. The local statement Thursday morning was crystal clear in its warning, bold emphasis is mine:

"Life Threatening Inundation Likely!

All neighborhoods ... and possibly entire coastal communities ... will be inundated during high tide. Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story homes will face certain death. Many residences of average construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere. Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads will be swamped ... some may be washed away by the water. Entire flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in multi-story facilities risk being cutoff. Conditions will be worsened by battering waves. such waves will exacerbate property damage ... with massive destruction of homes ... including those of block construction. Damage from beach erosion could take years to repair."

The National Weather Service Thursday night that Hurricane Ike could push "Coastal storm surge flooding of up to 20 feet above normal tide levels ... along with large and dangerous battering waves... can be expected near and to the east of where the center of Ike makes landfall ... extending a greater than usual distance from the center due to the large size of the cyclone. Surge flooding of up to 25 feet could occur at the heads of bays."

Galveston, Texas Hurricane 1900

In the deadliest storm in United States history, storm surge is credited with 6000 to 12000 deaths when the Category Four storm came ashore almost exactly 108 years ago with only 8-15 feet of surge. According to other media reports, today up to a quarter of Galveston's population has elected to try to ride out the storm. The National Hurricane Center local report says "Surge flooding of up to 25 feet could occur at the heads of bays and close to the coast the large battering waves will worsen the impacts of the surge."

The Weather Channel's Jim Cantore was reporting Thursday that the sea wall that many in Galveston view as a protector at 17 feet above sea level has had so much sand deposited in front and at the base of it that at some places the wall is closer to being only five or ten feet above the normal sea level.

The National Hurricane Center's definition of storm surge prediction has not changed since 2004:

"Storm surge, the abnormal rise of ocean water on land due primarily to strong onshore winds, is primarily forecast with the SLOSH computer model. SLOSH (Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) is run by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to estimate storm surge heights and winds resulting from historical, hypothetical, or predicted hurricanes by taking into account five factors: the winds, the central pressure, the size, the forward speed and the track direction of the hurricane."

There is a correlation between hurricane forecasts and storm surges predictions, "Where the hurricane forecast track is inaccurate, SLOSH model results will be inaccurate." The SLOSH model is thought to be "generally" accurate within 20%:

"...if the model calculates a peak 10 foot (3.0 m) storm surge for the event, you can expect the observed peak to range from 8 to 12 feet (2.4 to 3.6 m)."

The Storm Surge graphic that accompanies this story is calculated to give probabilites that a storm surge event will occur in a particular location, but they also caution in the fine print that even if it says your area only has a five to ten percent chance (the green areas) of being in an extreme event, persons should carefully consider the "potentially immense cost" in life and property.

The highest storm surge so far reported was between 42 and 48 feet in Bathurst Bay during Tropical Cyclone Mahina in Australia in 1899. Dolphins and fish were reported found atop 15 meter cliffs according to Chris Landsea of the Hurricane Research Service at NOAA.

Inland flooding after a storm comes ashore is also a leading cause of storm deaths and property damage. With isolated affected areas getting as much as 6-10 inches of rain, with isolated amounts as much as 15 inches, inland flooding will likely be a major factor after Hurricane Ike's landfall.

booger
09-12-2008, 10:37 AM
Well, crappity crap. More certain flooding warnings here (although shifts once it comes ashore could easily and substantially increase or decrease the amounts we get), as well as high wind alerts. So much for hubby's work plans for this weekend. Hurricanes were one thing I never even considered when we moved to Oklahoma. :rolleyes:

I've got relatives in Galveston and a friend in Houston. I haven't heard from either (they're obviously busy with other concerns at the moment) but I hope they headed inland.

MomCares
09-12-2008, 10:40 AM
According to other media reports, today up to a quarter of Galveston's population has elected to try to ride out the storm.
Man, I sure hope this report is wrong. Wouldn't that mean ~15,000 people are still in Galveston? I wonder how many of them could still escape once things start getting bad?


MomCares

Potemkin
09-12-2008, 11:01 AM
The Kemah Boardwalk is already flooding.

Water is several inches into the buildings which are on stilts.

Kemah Boardwalk is at the entrace of Clear Lake from Galveston Bay. It also very near to Johnson Space Center and hundreds of thousands of people live in Clear Lake

There is another report on TV about someone who just left the west end of Galveston Island. The water is already over the road and island on that end. He was going to ride it out but decided to evacuate to Houston.

That is a HUGE amount of water being pushed into the Bay and this is BEFORE the storm surge.

Ike is still about 14 hours away.

Potemkin
09-12-2008, 11:03 AM
Too late for people who live in Surfside. Being close to the Gulf and have been warned many times for hurricanes that never hit, they wait until the last minute.

The flooding I described above has caught them off guard and all of their vehicle are under water. They are there for the duration.

Potemkin
09-12-2008, 11:05 AM
On the plus side, I am off work because of facility closure.

The sky this morning was clear without a cloud in the sky. I was also cool.

Now, it is still sunny, some wispy clouds, heating up a little but nice.

Birdzeye
09-12-2008, 11:07 AM
Man, if I were living in Galveston, I'd have been outta there as soon as the evacuation order went out, if not sooner!

Come to think of it, I wouldn't want to live in Galveston, considering how it can get washed out in a hurricane.

Birdzeye
09-12-2008, 11:08 AM
Well, crappity crap. More certain flooding warnings here (although shifts once it comes ashore could easily and substantially increase or decrease the amounts we get), as well as high wind alerts. So much for hubby's work plans for this weekend. Hurricanes were one thing I never even considered when we moved to Oklahoma. :rolleyes:

I've got relatives in Galveston and a friend in Houston. I haven't heard from either (they're obviously busy with other concerns at the moment) but I hope they headed inland.

Hey, booger, hoping the best for your friends and relatives. Do you have any cell phone numbers you can call to check up on them?

Exodia
09-12-2008, 11:09 AM
Pot, can you give us general idea of where you are located in relation to Galveston and Houston? Thanks. Be well.

Birdzeye
09-12-2008, 11:09 AM
Hey, Potemkin, I hope you're in a "safe" spot (at least as safe as possible, like, nowhere where a storm surge would be).

booger
09-12-2008, 11:24 AM
That is a HUGE amount of water being pushed into the Bay and this is BEFORE the storm surge.

Ike is still about 14 hours away.

No shit. Holy crap. Thanks so much for giving us on-the-scene updates, Pote!

Hey, booger, hoping the best for your friends and relatives. Do you have any cell phone numbers you can call to check up on them?

Nah, they'll either be fine or they won't. Me further adding to the phone chaos that I'm sure must be starting won't be any help.

Potemkin
09-12-2008, 11:28 AM
Pot, can you give us general idea of where you are located in relation to Galveston and Houston? Thanks. Be well.

Hey, Potemkin, I hope you're in a "safe" spot (at least as safe as possible, like, nowhere where a storm surge would be).

I am between Houston and Huntsville, more toward Houston.

Due to the rivers flooding is possible due to the storm surge backing up the outflow but no storm surge itself.

There are a lot of trees around here so there will be some damage due to flying missiles. Most power lines are buried.

Gas is gone in the area of 100k. Bread, ice, and prepacked no refigeration food is gone. The sheeple waited until yesterday to get the stuff they should have had on hand.

Potemkin
09-12-2008, 11:30 AM
No shit. Holy crap. Thanks so much for giving us on-the-scene updates, Pote!

The pictures on TV are unbelievable. Water lapping into the restaurants on the Boardwalk.

The news stations are already pulling their people out of Galveston. SInce they usually do the "Hey, look at me report in the eye of a hurricane" thing I guess that means they are nervous.

Potemkin
09-12-2008, 11:37 AM
They just hit the airwaves with this and they are hitting it hard.


"Get out now"




“We have a couple of really clear messages this morning: First and foremost, if you live in one of the evacuation ZIP codes, and you have not left, leave now,” Harris County Judge Ed Emmett said.

<<snip>>

Galveston Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas also issued a mandatory evacuation order for all of Galveston Island.

Residents of Galveston were warned by the National Weather Service they could “face certain death” if they did not get out immediately.

Forecasters warned because of Ike’s size and the shallow Texas coastal waters, it could produce a surge, or wall of water, 20 feet high, and waves of perhaps 50 feet.

:eek::eek:


http://www.khou.com/topstories/stories/khou080912_tj_houston_ike_hurricane.659ae065.html


Officials: Those in mandatory evacuation zones must 'get out now'

10:13 AM CDT on Friday, September 12, 2008

KHOU.com staff report & the Associated Press


HOUSTON—As a gigantic Hurricane Ike steamed through the Gulf of Mexico toward the Texas coast, officials in America’s fourth-largest city made a bold decision: Instead of fleeing, most residents here would stare down the storm.

But officials didn’t mince words for those who living in areas under mandatory evacuation orders.

“We have a couple of really clear messages this morning: First and foremost, if you live in one of the evacuation ZIP codes, and you have not left, leave now,” Harris County Judge Ed Emmett said.

On Thursday, Harris County officials issued a mandatory evacuation order for residents living in the following ZIP codes: 77058, 77059, 77062, 77520, 77546, 77571, 77586 and 77598.

Emmett said people in those zones with special needs who cannot transport themselves need to call 311.

“We will come get you and evacuate you if you live in one of those ZIP codes,” Emmett said. “It’s important that people understand that this is a life or death matter.”

Galveston Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas also issued a mandatory evacuation order for all of Galveston Island.

Residents of Galveston were warned by the National Weather Service they could “face certain death” if they did not get out immediately.

“It will be, in candor, something that people will be scared of,” Houston Mayor Bill White warned. “A number of people in this community have not experienced the magnitude of these winds.”

Mandatory evacuation orders were also in effect for Brazoria County, excluding Alvin and Pearland; Chambers County’s flood-prone areas along Galveston and Trinity Bays, including Oak Island, Smith Point, Cedar Point and Walker Subdivisions in Beach City and residents living south of FM 1985; all of Jackson County; all of Matagorda County; Bolivar Peninsula, Bayou Vista, Omega Bay, Bacliff, San Leon, Freddiesville, La Porte and low-lying portions of La Marque and Dickinson in Galveston County.

Emmett also said anyone living in a mobile home should seek shelter elsewhere.

Emmett had a warning for residents of high rises as well.

“With every 100 feet, the category of the storm goes up one, so if you’re in a high rise, take that into consideration,” Emmett said. “As the storm nears, you might want to consider going to a lower floor.”

All of the major Houston-area freeways were clear as of Friday morning, Emmett said.

“There is no reason if you live in an evacuation zone for you not to leave,” Emmett said.

Residents who are evacuating were urged to let their family know where they were headed.

Numerous public shelters have been set up for those who need them.

The closest ones were located in Lufkin, Huntsville and College Station.

“We would strongly urge you to go to either Lufkin or College Station,” Emmett said.

That’s because of what Emmett called the “natural constriction” of I-45 through The Woodlands and Conroe.

Highway 59 was flowing freely to Lufkin Friday morning, as was Highway 290 to College Station.

Homeowners not living in the evacuation areas were told to board up windows if possible, clear the decks of furniture and stock up on drinking water and non-perishable food.

Ike’s 105-mph winds and potential 50-foot waves stopped the Coast Guard from attempting a risky helicopter rescue of 22 people aboard a 584-foot freighter that broke down in the path of the storm about 90 miles southeast of Galveston, Chief Petty Officer Mike O’Berry said.

O’Berry did not provide the name of the ship, which was hauling petroleum coke used to fuel furnaces at steel plants, or details on where it was headed.

Officials hoped their partial evacuation plan would avoid the same kind of gridlock that cost lives—and a little political capital—when Hurricane Rita threatened Houston in 2005.

The Hurricane Ike evacuation plan is a stark contrast to how emergency management officials responded to Hurricane Rita in 2005. As the storm closed in three years ago, the region implemented the following plan: Evacuate the 2 million people in the coastal communities first, past the metropolis of Houston; once they were out of harm’s way, Houston would follow in an orderly fashion.

But three days before landfall, Rita bloomed into a Category 5 and tracked toward the city. City and Harris County officials told Houstonians to hit the road, even while the population of Galveston Island was still clogging the freeways. It was a decision that proved tragic: 110 people died during the effort, making the evacuation more deadly than the eventual Category 4 storm, which killed nine.

With the lessons of that disaster, public officials were left with a vexing choice this time. Because Ike’s path wasn’t clear until just about 48 hours before the storm, officials didn’t have a lot of time to make evacuation calls.

“Almost all of them are in a pretty tough spot,” said Michael Lindell, a Texas A&M University urban planner and emergency management expert. “The problem is elected officials were not elected to be hurricane experts.

“It’s staring into the barrel of a gun. It’s a very challenging problem for them and there isn’t any easy answer.”

Ike was forecast to make landfall early Saturday southwest of Galveston, scene of the nation’s deadliest hurricane, the great storm of 1900 that left at least 6,000 dead.

“I don’t have a crystal ball, but if I did, I think it would tell me a sad story,” said Randy Smith, the police chief and a waterfront property owner on Surfside Beach, just down the coast from Galveston and a possible landfall target.

“And that story would be that we’re faced with devastation of a catastrophic range. I think we’re going to see a storm like most of us haven’t seen.”

Most metropolitan residents appeared to be heeding orders and staying put. Edgar Ortiz, a 55-year-old maintenance worker from east Houston, said leaders were providing wise advice, considering what happened during Rita, but said people were inclined to make up their own minds.

“I guess people tend to want to stay where they’re at,” he said as he shopped for bottled water, toilet paper and canned goods. “A lot of people don’t want to leave. I don’t want to leave. You may be taking a risk, but that’s just how it is.”

Maria Belmonte, 42, of Channelview, said she was stuck in traffic for 18 hours as she evacuated for Rita. This time, she was comfortable with the recommendation to stay put—but she said she would reconsider if the forecast worsened Friday.

“We have small kids, and we need to think about their safety,” said Belmonte, a records clerk at an elementary school.

Ike would be the first major hurricane to hit a U.S. metropolitan area since Katrina devastated New Orleans three years ago. For Houston, it would be the first major hurricane since Alicia in August 1983 came ashore on Galveston Island, killing 21 people and causing $2 billion in damage.

Ike is so big, it could inflict a punishing blow even in those areas that do not get a direct hit. Forecasters warned because of Ike’s size and the shallow Texas coastal waters, it could produce a surge, or wall of water, 20 feet high, and waves of perhaps 50 feet. It could also dump 10 inches or more of rain.

At 8 a.m. EDT Friday, the storm was centered about 230 miles southeast of Galveston, moving to the west-northwest near 13 mph. Ike was a Category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds near 105 mph.

Hurricane warnings were in effect over a 400-mile stretch of coastline from south of Corpus Christi to Morgan City, La., and many residents who fled Hurricane Gustav two weeks ago only to be spared in East Texas were packing up again Thursday.

Tropical storm warnings extended south almost to the Mexican border and east to the Mississippi-Alabama line, including New Orleans.

The oil and gas industry was closely watching the storm because it was headed straight for the nation’s biggest complex of refineries and petrochemical plants. The upper Texas coast accounts for one-fifth of U.S. refining capacity.

The first rain and wind was set to arrive later Friday. Residents were scurrying to get ready, and hardware stores put limits on the number of gas containers that could be sold. Batteries, drinking water and other storm supplies were running low, and grocery stores were getting set to close. Houston was slowly shutting down, and people beginning to head inside. The only thing to do was wait and see what Ike had in store.

“It’s a big storm,” Texas Gov. Rick Perry said. “I cannot overemphasize the danger that is facing us. It’s going to do some substantial damage. It’s going to knock out power. It’s going to cause massive flooding.”

DryHeat
09-12-2008, 11:43 AM
Jeff Masters just posted on his WUnderground blog the following, in part:

Posted by: JeffMasters, 11:22 AM EDT on September 12, 2008
Hurricane Ike is closing in on Texas, and stands poised to become one of the most damaging hurricanes of all time. Despite Ike's rated Category 2 strength, the hurricane is much larger and more powerful than Category 5 Katrina or Category 5 Rita. The storm surge from Ike could rival Katrina's, inundating a 200-mile stretch of coast from Galveston to Cameron, Louisiana with waters over 15 feet high. This massive storm surge is due to the exceptional size of Ike. According to the latest wind field estimate (Figure 1), the diameter of Ike's tropical storm and hurricane force winds are 550 and 240 miles, respectively. For comparison, Katrina numbers at landfall were 440 and 210 miles, respectively. As I discussed in yesterday's blog entry, a good measure of the storm surge potential is Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Ike continues to grow larger and has intensified slightly since yesterday, and the hurricane's Integrated Kinetic Energy has increased from 134 to 149 Terajoules. This is 30% higher than Katrina's total energy at landfall. All this extra energy has gone into piling up a vast storm surge that will probably be higher than anything in recorded history along the Texas coast. Storm surge heights of 20-25 feet are possible from Galveston northwards to the Louisiana border.

Potemkin
09-12-2008, 11:44 AM
http://blogs.chron.com/texaspolitics/archives/2008/09/photos_what_ike_1.html

September 11, 2008
Photos: What Ike could do to Galveston

Here are the photographs the Governor's Division of Emergency Management handed out today showing the potential impact of Hurricane Ike if it hit Galveston.

http://blogs.chron.com/texaspolitics/archives/Galveston.jpg
Galveston.jpg

Galveston normal

http://blogs.chron.com/texaspolitics/archives/Ike%20Cat%203.jpg
Ike Cat 3.jpg

Ike at a Category 3

http://blogs.chron.com/texaspolitics/archives/Category%204.jpg
Category 4.jpg

Ike at a Category 4

Photos: Governor's Division of Emergency Management

Potemkin
09-12-2008, 11:46 AM
Jeff Masters just posted on his WUnderground blog the following, in part:

Good post. That is confusing a lot of people.

How could a Cat 2 maybe 3 be so destructive, more flooding, etc.

It is a little more complicated that just eye wall wind speed and the Saffir-Simpson scale. The trick is stored kinetic energy.

Potemkin
09-12-2008, 11:56 AM
West end, Galveston Island. Water over the roads and most of that end. (It is lower than the east end.)

http://www.click2houston.com/2008/0912/17457336_320X240.jpg

rb.
09-12-2008, 11:59 AM
Pot, that boardwalk you were talking about in Galveston...I believe Fox just reported it just went out to sea.

booger
09-12-2008, 12:15 PM
Just saw this on CNN, don't think it's been posted yet but feel free to beat me if it has.

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/

The guy's setting up remote cameras all over the area.

Susie
09-12-2008, 12:19 PM
Anybody that stays with their children and survives should be imprisoned.

Potemkin
09-12-2008, 12:22 PM
Pot, that boardwalk you were talking about in Galveston...I believe Fox just reported it just went out to sea.

More pics

Curious
09-12-2008, 12:28 PM
Dr. Master's latest full report along with graphs of the storm is worth a read. He has been at the head of the pact at warning about the storm surge with this storm and explaining why a Cat 2 Hurricane can actually produce more damage and destruction than a Cat 5 storm. EVERYONE who is anywhere near this storm should read Dr. Master's report from about 45 minutes ago.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

(thank you DryHeat for posting your post quoting a bit of his comments)

fwiw IF the storm surge is the equivalent of a Cat 5+ storm surge and it hits on or just to the West of Galveston then the picture above of a Cat 4 hit on Galveston is wrong. Actually ALL of Galveston (except for a few higher rise buildings) will be under water. IF the number of people who have decided to remain in that town are accurate then the death toll from this storm could easily be in the thousands.

Curious

MomCares
09-12-2008, 12:35 PM
I just read that the wave destructiveness being measured with Ike is already 5.4 out of 6.

Based on what we're hearing about the number of (insane) people who are not evacuating, I dread hearing the death toll unless something magical changes in the next 24 hours.


MomCares

Potemkin
09-12-2008, 12:35 PM
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html


...


Ike's storm surge
According to the NOAA tide gauges, storm tides along the Mississippi coast peaked at about 6 feet above normal yesterday, with a 7 foot storm tide observed on the east side of New Orleans at Shell Beach in Lake Borgne. At 10 am CDT, storm tides of 5-6 feet were being seen in western Louisiana, and were 5 feet at Freeport, Texas, and 5.5 feet at Galveston. According to the latest NWS forecast from the Galveston office, we can expect the following storm surges in Texas:

Gulf-facing coastline west of Sargent... 4 to 6 feet

Shoreline of Matagorda Bay... 2 to 5 feet

Gulf-facing coastline from Sargent to San Luis Pass... 12 to 15 feet

Gulf-facing coastline San Luis Pass to High Island including Galveston Island... ... 15 to 20 feet

Shoreline of Galveston Bay...15 to 25 feet

NOAA's experimental storm surge forecast is calling for a 10% chance that the storm tide from Ike will reach 27-30 feet on the south and east sides of Houston. The exact track of Ike is key in determining if Galveston's 17-foot sea wall gets overtopped, flooding the city. A slight wobble 30 miles to the north of Galveston would put the city into offshore winds from Ike, possibly saving it from inundation. The situation is grim for Port Arthur, Texas, on the Louisiana border. The expected storm surge of 15-20 feet will overtop the city's seawall by six feet, resulting in flooding of the city and a number of major oil refineries. Expect a significant tightening of gas supplies in coming months, due to extensive damage to the oil refineries in the Houston and Port Arthur area.

Potemkin
09-12-2008, 12:36 PM
I just read that the wave destructiveness being measured with Ike is already 5.4 out of 6.

Based on what we're hearing about the number of (insane) people who are not evacuating, I dread hearing the death toll unless something magical changes in the next 24 hours.

See pictures above and we are HOURS away from landfall.

Potemkin
09-12-2008, 12:41 PM
Channel 13 in Houston is showing waves overtopping the Galveston seawall at this time.

It doesn't mean that east Galveston is flooding but getting close.

rryan
09-12-2008, 12:44 PM
Stay safe Pote--glad you further north.

some of our best friends live in hedwig village and thought taping their windows would be enough to ride it out.

Hope they are right. I am pretty sure they are high enough to not flood but....

Potemkin
09-12-2008, 12:45 PM
some of our best friends live in hedwig village and thought taping their windows would be enough to ride it out.

Taping does nothing. Old wives tale.

Potemkin
09-12-2008, 12:45 PM
Boliver Ferry is closed. Too late for them.

Potemkin
09-12-2008, 12:46 PM
Sims Bayou and other bayous in the Houston area has stopped draining and it hasn't even started raining yet.

rb.
09-12-2008, 12:46 PM
Those pics are scary, Pot. I've got that channel 2 up in a window behind this. They showed an aerial shot already of flooding (Omega Bay neighbourhood?), and from what I saw, there's already water more than halfway up the garage door at one house.

They reported that some areas are now without water, cut off by the city because of contamination, and the power went out along the beach at least 45 minutes ago.

Potemkin
09-12-2008, 12:50 PM
More pictures.

Kemah Boardwalk and Pier 21 in Galveston.

Pier 21 is about 12' tall from the water in the calm times and the hurricane is 150 miles out.

DryHeat
09-12-2008, 12:53 PM
If there's any hubris on the part of Galveston residents, I'd assign it to the efforts they made rebuilding after the big 1900 storm that killed 6000-12000 people there. They actually moved in sand sufficient to raise the island's surface up to 17 feet... jacking surviving and newly-built buildings up into the air and filling in sand beneath them. They still had 275 deaths in 1915 from a 12-ft surge and a similar storm but that's obviously an improvement. (Info summarized from a look at Wikipedia.)

I'll give Jim Cantore on Weather Channel some credit for what I just heard him broadcast, to paraphrase: "If any of you kids are watching this and your parents haven't evacuated despite being told to do so, you go to them right now, look them in the eye, and tell them you really don't feel good about staying."

Exodia
09-12-2008, 12:58 PM
This is an interesting site, picked up from the comments section at the blog mentioned above. If you click any of the monitoring stations near the impacted areas, it will give you close to real-time water level information:

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/tx/nwis/rt

for explanation of "NGVD 1929", see here:
http://www.ngs.noaa.gov/faq.shtml#WhatVD29VD88

Near Port Arthur:
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwisweb/data/img/USGS.08042522.01.72020.2008.20080905.20080912.0.0. .gif

Susie
09-12-2008, 01:01 PM
Who evacuates the evacuators?

Potemkin
09-12-2008, 01:13 PM
Mandatory evacuation in Brazoria County now.

No assistance for those needing to evac. Too late.

Potemkin
09-12-2008, 01:19 PM
Who evacuates the evacuators?

They don't.

They park all the police cars and ambulances in multi-story concrete garages.

Big fire trucks will parked between sturdy buildings.

Crews shelter in reinforced buildings. This will start about 4-6 pm when landfall is between 2-4am.

They won't come out until several hours after the hurricane passes. If you have a fire, sick or heart attack you are on your own because you should have evacuated.