"If suez canal were closed (seems unlikely right now), the worldwide price of crude would gap instantly to $120+"
That is very unlikely. Most of the world's crude sent by tanker travels in supertankers that are far too big for the Suez Canal. Also, oil tanker traffic (*all* traffic, actually) through the Suez Canal was suspended once before in 2007 when two tankers ran aground near the south entrance to the canal. There were fears that the canal might be closed for some time. Oil prices spiked up some, but nowhere near the levels you are talking about.
The real worry is if governments fall in oil producing states like Saudi Arabia or Kuwait. That would have a devastating and possibly long-term effect on oil prices.