South Sudan is on its way to becoming an independent nation

Ought Six · 01-12-2011, 09:46 PM

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12170235

Brihard · 01-12-2011, 10:08 PM

There's gotta be some quid pro quo with Omar Al Bashir that we're not seeing here. I intensely distrust how relatively smoothly this is going.

Ought Six · 01-12-2011, 11:09 PM

There is a significant chance of war the moment the two nations split. At the very least, I would not at all be surprised to see Khartoum seize the oil fields.

Brihard · 01-13-2011, 08:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ought Six

There is a significant chance of war the moment the two nations split. At the very least, I would not at all be surprised to see Khartoum seize the oil fields.

The oil concessions cover about half of south Sudan.

This referendum's under a LOT of international scrutiny. I think Sudan would be risking a serious international intervention if they resorted to force to prevent this...

Potemkin · 01-13-2011, 09:47 AM

I don't see the north letting all of that oil go.

I hear war drums on the horizon and the wadis will be filled with blood.

Ought Six · 01-13-2011, 02:31 PM

Bri:

Quote:

"The oil concessions cover about half of south Sudan."

Nope. Unfortunately, though, the oil fields are split by the border between the two nations, and the pipelines are all in the north, which is going to be an ongoing source of conflict.

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Quote:

"This referendum's under a LOT of international scrutiny. I think Sudan would be risking a serious international intervention if they resorted to force to prevent this... "

Seriously? The government in Khartoum runs the Janjaweed Militias, and everyone knows it. They have been engaged in wholesale rape and murder for years now. I do not think the Islamists in the north are much worried about world opinion, any more than the Islamists in Somali are.

Brihard · 01-13-2011, 04:07 PM

Concessions. Not just currently active fields. Presumably at lead some of this area will prove economical to develop as current fields dwindle.

Darfur v South Sudan- apples and oranges. One is an ugly local genocide where there's little of material value at stake. The other is about to become a sovereign nation recognized by most of the world... And possessing a goodly amount of oil. There's more for self interested foreign states to care about in the South; Darfur is 'just' Africans killing Africans, which we inthe west seem all too ready to ignore

Ought Six · 01-13-2011, 04:15 PM

We are talking about the attitudes of the Khartoum government, not the attitudes of western nations.

Brihard · 01-13-2011, 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ought Six

We are talking about the attitudes of the Khartoum government, not the attitudes of western nations.

Indeed. I'm not saying that Khartoum won't do something stupid- just that there's a lot at risk for them if they do.

They've been playing ball, more or less, so far in this. They can't have been so blind as to not see how this is going to go. After their previously stated intent to recognize the results, it would make it even harder for them to pretend to any legitimate place resisting the separation... The Sudanese government is not divorced from reality, and Al Bashir's already been indicted for war crimes.

I don't know what to think. On the one hand, they're not seeming to do much in opposition of this as of yet. On the other hand, both the risks and rewards are pretty serious either way. And we don't really have a proper appreciation for who else might be 'in the game'. I suspect that Al Bashir's continued rule of the north of Sudan will be contingent on his allowing the south to separate without too much hindrance, but also that if he does go along with this, a lot of the diplomatic pressure against him will just sort of quietly go away. I do think, though, that losing the South will up the ante in Darfur.

Ought Six · 01-13-2011, 05:40 PM

Bri:

Quote:

"The Sudanese government is not divorced from reality...."

Correction: they have not been thus far; not *totally*. However, I think the succession of the south may be enough to induce a total psychotic break. They are Islamist crazies. Their radical uberfundie imams have tremendous influence with the people, and they are already working diligently to foment war. The government, for domestic political reasons, may in the end simply have no choice but to go to war if they wish to maintain power.

Kassy · 01-14-2011, 05:05 PM

Check out the satellite image here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudan

It's a big loss to the north . There's an oil rich region right on the border which is hotly disputed. The voting is going quite well. We just have to wait and see what the outcome is and what happens afterwards.

I hope it'll end well but i've got to see that first.