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Old 08-30-2011, 12:00 AM   #1
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Default Next up: TD 12 (future Katia)

Might as well start obsessing about this one early on.

It will probably recurve...models aren't worth anything this far out...and so on and so on

We like this one:




We don't like or want to believe this one. It just isn't pretty and those acronyms are not familiar which means they haven't been checked against reality very often:

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Old 08-30-2011, 12:32 AM   #2
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Crap - two tracks put it right over my baby boy...
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Old 08-30-2011, 12:04 PM   #3
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The Tracks this year are amazingly close together and close to the Eastern Seaboard..,

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Old 08-30-2011, 12:05 PM   #4
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Katia has been named a "Tropical Storm" now in the latest update..,
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Old 08-30-2011, 12:19 PM   #5
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There is a trough forming that should be coming down out of Canada, southeast through the Great Lakes and then moving over the East coast. From what I've been reading, the timing of this trough is pretty critical as it could steer Katia away from the coast and make it a fish storm.

So all you folks in Canada get busy and work on that trough!!


TS Katia Forecast discussion:

"...KATIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CAUSE KATIA TO BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED..."
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Old 08-30-2011, 12:31 PM   #6
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http://twitter.com/#!/bigjoebastardi

He's saying it won't be Katia - there's a threat from a storm forming in the Gulf that will be named "Lee".
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Old 08-30-2011, 01:56 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flourbug View Post
http://twitter.com/#!/bigjoebastardi

He's saying it won't be Katia - there's a threat from a storm forming in the Gulf that will be named "Lee".
Can we post pics from TWC? If not:

"Next Tropical Threat in Gulf of Mexico?"

Scroll down and look at the 2nd pic labeled "Satellite View of Disturbance". It looks like it may be trying to develop some structure.

TWC has been talking about it for a couple of days. I noticed that just in the last hour they've started including a comment for the TX area forecast that a "disturbance may impact weather for the weekend".
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Old 08-30-2011, 04:13 PM   #8
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The yellow circle is what might become Lee. It has <30% chance of developing into something in the next 48 hours. It'll be interesting to see if that probability changes tomorrow.

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Old 08-30-2011, 04:45 PM   #9
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It would suck if Katia hit the east coast as well. Even if it comes close, it will dump a lot of rain there, and that is about the last thing that they need.
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Old 09-01-2011, 05:33 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Catbird View Post
The yellow circle is what might become Lee. It has <30% chance of developing into something in the next 48 hours. It'll be interesting to see if that probability changes tomorrow.

It looks like Katia has TWO possible tropical depressions forming up to the north of her.., Could keep a "ridge" between her and cruising off into the North Atlantic without hitting the Eastern Seabord.

I'd be keeping a close eye on how those two might hold Katia to the south..,
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Old 09-01-2011, 05:39 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Auburn Boy View Post
It looks like Katia has TWO possible tropical depressions forming up to the north of her.., Could keep a "ridge" between her and cruising off into the North Atlantic without hitting the Eastern Seabord.

I'd be keeping a close eye on how those two might hold Katia to the south..,
Yep. And SOME of the latest models show Katia moving more westward than previously predicted before (hopefully) beginning any recurve. It's gonna get interesting.
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Old 08-30-2011, 12:32 PM   #12
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Ugh...
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Old 08-30-2011, 12:37 PM   #13
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Yeah, hitting 45 mph steady with gusts to 60. Central pressure of 1003... that's Katia. It's forecast to become a major hurricane... let's hope it wants to go fishing.

Any volunteers to go chumming?
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Old 08-30-2011, 07:00 PM   #14
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Quote:
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Yeah, hitting 45 mph steady with gusts to 60. Central pressure of 1003... that's Katia. It's forecast to become a major hurricane... let's hope it wants to go fishing.

Any volunteers to go chumming?
George Clooney on a "Swordboat?"
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Old 08-30-2011, 01:44 PM   #15
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Just heard on CNN that she will be a Hurricane "later today". This is building fast, and large. Hope it wraps around the Bermuda High real quick or we're in for annother round of hurt.
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Old 08-30-2011, 01:49 PM   #16
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The nature is taking over, kill the worst polluter.
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Old 08-30-2011, 01:55 PM   #17
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The nature is taking over, kill the worst polluter.
Mexico? China?
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Old 08-30-2011, 04:57 PM   #18
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Intensifying at a good clip. Central pressure down to 997 mb & sustained winds at 60 mph. Moving at a decent clip at 20 mph.
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Old 08-30-2011, 04:59 PM   #19
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Moving at 20 might slow development since its creating its own shear. Just a thought....
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Old 08-30-2011, 07:03 PM   #20
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Roy Scheider on the Orca?
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Old 08-30-2011, 07:08 PM   #21
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Roy Scheider on the Orca?
"We need a bigger boat."
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Old 08-30-2011, 07:08 PM   #22
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Good satellite loop..,

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html
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Old 08-30-2011, 10:58 PM   #23
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NHC is saying that it's "racing". Still moving WNW, which isn't good. Everyone should face east and exhale all at once. Maybe that'll nudge it in the right direction.

Ready? 1...2...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/310237.shtml

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2011

...KATIA RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 37.5W
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
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Old 08-31-2011, 05:37 AM   #24
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Canadian weather service is predicting it will hit Nova Scotia

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Old 08-31-2011, 06:01 PM   #25
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About the maybe-might-soon-be-Lee:

FWIW, our local (Chattanooga) weather guy said that the forecast model he uses shows that tropical wave becoming a depression and probably a TS that will slowly wind its' way to the LA coast. The model then shows that it could dump at least 12" and as much as 2 feet - yes, 24 inches - of rain.

That's a lot of water.
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