full report here: (86 pages, .pdf)
table of contents at page xvii
chapter summaries from pages 1,7,13,21,31,47,53,59 in text-form are here:
30%-50% (of the US-population) infected in fall or winter ,
20%-40% symptomatically infected (in fall or winter)
> more than 10%-20% will seek medical attention
> 1.8M hospital admissions
> up to 300000 ICU admissions
> 30000-90000 deaths
> start in early September,peak in mid October
assuming the clinical severeness will be the same in the fall as it was in the spring
PCAST H1N1-group members involve Palese,Webster,Fineberg,Lipsich (page xvi)
they call it "a plausible scenario (page viii), a planning scenario not a prediction"
However in the introduction they call it "estimates".
They don't provide their definition of these terms
I can't find (keyword search only, I didn't read the full report) any explanation why it should be
worse than e.g. Australia (population=20M)
who already have a full wave which seams to have peaked now.
With their numbers I calculate for USA 4000 deaths,100000 hospitalizations, 20000 ICU admissions,
Or with the NZ-numbers I get 1200 deaths