The new Nine meals from anarchy

[BirdGuano]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...e-system/print


Nine meals from anarchy
A cold snap shows how fragile our supply of food and fuel is. We need a more sustainable system

'Man has lost the *capacity to *foresee and forestall," wrote Albert Schweitzer. A colossal banking crisis and a big freeze in the middle of what was meant to be a mild winter don't encourage confidence to the contrary.

Reassurance is fine as long as it's well founded. And in the midst of fears about gas supplies and the panic buying of food Gordon Brown is hardly likely to scream that we are all doomed. It is, after all, his job to tell us that all will be well. But will it? People were shocked at the scale of social breakdown when Hurricane Katrina revealed a long-term, creeping erosion of civic resilience. Are we just waking up to the fact that several wrong turns have left our essential supplies much more vulnerable than they need to be?

In 2004 Britain ceased to be able to meet its energy needs domestically. Since then our dependence on imports, particularly of natural gas, has risen dramatically. The situation can only worsen as gas is subject to the same iron law of depletion as oil, and its moment of peak production lags not far behind.

Similarly, Britain's ability to feed itself has been in long-term decline, and food prices are reportedly rising in the cold spell. It was only two years ago that droughts in Australia caused a crisis in world grain supplies; in April 2008 food crises affected at least 37 countries and there were related riots in many. As climate change and volatile oil prices destabilise global agriculture, we are becoming more dependent on food and energy imports just as the geopolitics of both make it less likely that the world will generously meet our needs.

This year is the 10th anniversary of the fuel protests, when supermarket bosses sat with ministers and civil servants in Whitehall warning that there were just three days of food left. We were, in effect, nine meals from anarchy. Suddenly, the apocalyptic visions of novelists and film-makers seemed less preposterous. Civilisation's veneer may be much thinner than we like to think.

Part of the problem lies in the infrastructure that emerges from a market system focused on narrow cost savings. The result is easily disrupted just-in-time supermarket food supply lines, and a risky assumption that anything we need can easily be bought on global markets. The latter becomes problematic when in response to global shortages, governments around the world understandably choose to meet their domestic needs first. In Britain, not only are our strategic fuel reserves low by international comparison, our strategic food reserves are history.

One response to the vulnerability revealed in 2008 has been the rise of the so-called land grab. Several wealthy countries and companies have targeted up to 20m hectares of productive farmland in poor countries for acquisition and control. In Madagascar, public outcry led to the government's fall.

As a child I was quietly haunted by Doris Lessing's book The Memoirs of a Survivor. Society had broken down, and people were on the move, displaced amid an increasingly brutal disorder. The presiding government was useless but just about able to "adjust itself to events, while pretending probably even to itself that it initiated them".

Events are revealing that many of the things we take for granted, like bank accounts, fuel and food, are vulnerable. If we value civilisation, the litmus test for economic success should not be short-term profitability, but resilience in the face of climatic extremes and resource shortages. When Gordon Brown meets Cobra, the civil contingencies committee, this week, item one should be the transition to a more sustainable food and energy system.

[Ought Six]

An island nation with a growing population that already cannot grow nearly enough food to feed itself is always going to be vulnerable.

[rb.]

Didn't take long for the lessons of life at home during WW2 to be lost, did it.

[BirdGuano]

Originally Posted by rb.

Didn't take long for the lessons of life at home during WW2 to be lost, did it.

Exactly one generation according to cycle theory.

[doc_jake]

Darwin at work, give it a few more cold winters and those of us who take some normal preperations in life will have pleanrt of room to grow our food.

[rb.]

Originally Posted by BirdGuano

Exactly one generation according to cycle theory.

But I don't get it. My grandmother was the British WWII war bride that came to Canada. She definitely passed the prep thing down to Mom, and then to me. I heard story after story of shortages, making do, etc. All this in an environment that DIDN'T experience those problems. So what the heck are all those people doing in the area that WAS attacked and had shortages for years? Makes no sense to me.

[flourbug]

People reacted differently, rb. I know several people who were extremely frugal because of their memories of the Great Depression and WWII. I also know people who lived through those times and had an attitude of "that was then and this is now" and would never happen again. I see both as coping mechanisms. Some people wanted an insurance policy and others were protected by denial.

[rc]

My parents were somewhat older than most of my peers, so I'm kind of the tail end of children whose parents lived through the Depression and World War 2.

In retrospect, as I look back, my parents obviously learned lessons from both events. In particular, we always had plenty of food in the house. We had a freezer, and it was usually fairly full. They bought things when they were on sale, so the freezer would typically have 10 or 20 pounds of ground beef along with other meat, a dozen loaves of bread, etc., etc. We had a large pantry of canned goods, in a cabinet apparently constructed by my dad in the basement.

In restrospect, the fact that they did things like this probably had a lot to do with the fact that they had lived through the depression and war. But they didn't talk about it in those terms, and they probably didn't think of it in those terms. That was just the way they did things.

So I grew up with things like a big cabinet full of food in the house, but I was never told a lesson that you ought to do this to protect yourself in case of another war or depression.

And other than anticipating another war or depression, there's no particularly good reason for me to keep 20 pounds of ground beef in the freezer. My life experience is that if you need a pound of hamburger, they have plenty of it at the supermarket, and you can get it when you need it. Doing so meets my needs, in my normal circumstances. So if I don't want to, I don't need to worry about it, like my parents probably did.

To me, the depression and WW2 don't seem like distant events, because my parents lived through them as adults. For people younger than me (and most of the people my own age, whose parents were younger), there is not a connection. I was born in 1961, and for me, the Civil War was something that occurred in a completely different historical era, because it ended almost a hundred years before I was born. I probably don't live any lessons learned from the Civil War, because it was merely a historical event.

On the other hand, I was born 16 years after WW2 ended, and it was part of my parents' life. It didn't seem so far fetched to think that something like it could happen again. It seems plausible, whereas something like the Civil War seems implausible, because the last example happened so long ago.

Now, it's been 65 years since WW2 ended. For people younger than me, it's probably thought of more as a mere historical event, the same way I thought of the Civil War. It no longer has the same inherent plausibility because, as another poster said, "that was then; this is now".

These things do seem to run in cycles. It seems to me that the most important events in U.S. history were the American Revolution, the Civil War, and World War 2. They're separated by about 80 years, which is approximately one human life span. Those kinds of lessons need to be relearned once per lifetime, it seems. For me, I had one major historical event as part of my recent history, and two as part of my ancient history. For those younger than me, World War 2 is part of the ancient history, and they have nothing comparable as part of their recent history.

If this theory is correct, then we're due for the next such event in about ten years or so. It's a somewhat sobering thought, because my kids will be of the age where it will fall upon them to sort it out. Fortunately, I still remember just enough so that perhaps I can help remind them that they'll weather it better if they keep 20 pounds of ground beef in the freezer, even though the supermarket apparently has plenty of it.

Interestingly, Obama is the first President who is younger than me. He's only younger than me by a few months, but his parents were much younger. (I'm not picking on him--I'm just using him as an example, because many of our leaders are now the same approximate age.)

Because his parents were younger than mine, World War 2 was not part of his experience. So I suspect that World War 2 was to him, and to many of our leaders, ancient history, rather than the recent history it is for me and older people. I believe he was raised partly by his grandparents, so maybe he shares some of my experience that it was recent history, but I think for him, it's ancient history. That's not a criticism--it's just a reality based upon when he was born.

But because of that, he sees the world differently than I do. He probably never had 20 pounds of hamburger in the freezer. A new cycle has begun.

[A.T. Hagan]

Originally Posted by rc

These things do seem to run in cycles. It seems to me that the most important events in U.S. history were the American Revolution, the Civil War, and World War 2. They're separated by about 80 years, which is approximately one human life span. Those kinds of lessons need to be relearned once per lifetime, it seems. For me, I had one major historical event as part of my recent history, and two as part of my ancient history. For those younger than me, World War 2 is part of the ancient history, and they have nothing comparable as part of their recent history.

If this theory is correct, then we're due for the next such event in about ten years or so. It's a somewhat sobering thought, because my kids will be of the age where it will fall upon them to sort it out. Fortunately, I still remember just enough so that perhaps I can help remind them that they'll weather it better if they keep 20 pounds of ground beef in the freezer, even though the supermarket apparently has plenty of it.

Roughly ten years meaning maybe as little as five to as much as twentyfive.

It's been a long time coming.

.....Alan.

[flourbug]

Maybe this growing Depression fits the bill.

[rc]

Well, yes, we're about 80 years behind the last one. But this isn't it. The last one was followed by a more acute crisis, which was ultimately solved by the 19 year olds.

[doc_jake]

The problem over here has been the “social experiments” starting in the 60’s. All we get is “don’t worry the “system” will provide. Some of us keep asking what the system is going to ask for in return for providing, but most people believe the speech.

But as the old saying goes, those that forget the lessons of history will be forced to relive them.

[Ought Six]

The problem with prepping in Britain is that the means to defend your preps are banned. I would think stealthy prepping and employing means to hide your goodies would be essential there. Opsec would be critical.

[A.T. Hagan]

There are some folks that prep in Great Britain and opsec is very important to them.

The biggest problem with prepping in the U.K. as I'm sure doc can tell us is that the bulk of the British population is highly concentrated.

.....Alan.

[BirdGuano]

Originally Posted by A.T. Hagan

The biggest problem with prepping in the U.K. as I'm sure doc can tell us is that the bulk of the British population is highly concentrated.
.

And the fridges are too darned small.....

[doc_jake]

Funny thing is in the UK we have the right to defend ourselves, and the equipment to do it to. But yes I prefer the idea of keeping my preps hidden from view and it’s something I only discus (in the meat world) with people I really trust.

We have few “big” fridges over here and most families have a chest freezer as well. But I don’t trust fridges or freezers not to break or the power to go down at just the wrong time.

The vast majority of my food preps are dried or tinned. At this time of year I could at a pinch go six months with what I have in my own home, ok I would be pig sick of porridge oats, lentils and beans by the end, but I could do it.

I also have more stuff stored at my mother’s farm, if it looks like a long term problem it’s my first fall back location.

[Ought Six]

d_j:

"Funny thing is in the UK we have the right to defend ourselves, and the equipment to do it to."

Really? So if there is a collapse, and some local yobbos come to your house with a shotgun or two looking to loot whatever they can get, you are going to be able to defend yourself against them?

[doc_jake]

Yup I will match my Lee Enfield (converted to 7.62mm) against their shotgun. I also have a over / under shotgun and a .22 bolt action rifle in my gun cabinet.

For some reason most people think we can’t own weapons in the UK, yes it is not easy but I believe in certain parts of America all firearm ownership is prohibited ?

Basically I can own a firearm or shotgun if I hold a license for it. To get the license I need to;
• Show good reason (hunting or target shooting).
• Have no criminal record.
• Have an approved cabinet.

I used to have pistols too, but had to surrender them when the last law change was implemented. Though I am considering getting into black powder pistols.

[Ought Six]

D-J:

"Yup I will match my Lee Enfield (converted to 7.62mm) against their shotgun. I also have a over / under shotgun and a .22 bolt action rifle in my gun cabinet."

Sweet! I always wanted an Ishapore 7.62mm (very similar to what you have), but sadly never got one while they were still cheap.
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"For some reason most people think we can’t own weapons in the UK...."

I know there is still some firearms ownership in the UK; mainly what are classified as sporting weapons. I am surprised you are allowed a military surplus rifle, even a bolt action one. The way things are going over there, you likely will not have them for much longer.
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".... yes it is not easy...."

Ahh, the famous Brit understatement of the facts.
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".... but I believe in certain parts of America all firearm ownership is prohibited ?"

Nope. Localities here with the very strictest firearms laws in the nation still have more firearms rights than you folks over there.