Cross off North Dakota

[TrashCan Man]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/200....JebSFEXhh24cA

Obama's campaign is pulling out of its third longshot state, North Dakota, AP reports from Bismark today, shutting 11 offices and moving staffers to Wisconsin and Minnesota, states John Kerry won in 2004.

This is the third state that appears to have come off the table since Obama's campaign laid out an ambitious 18-state battlefield. His campaign also pulled out of Georgia, and Sarah Palin's nomination appears to have put Alaska out of reach.

At a briefing for reporters in June, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe recognized that the battlefield wouldn't remain that wide to the end.

"We have a lot of differing combinations to get to 270, and our strategic imperative is going to be ... to keep as many of those scenarios as possible alive" deep into October, he said.

Over the next 40 days, other states will likely come out of play; the question is how long some of those, from huge ones like Florida to marginal Montana, remain on the table, as well as how competitive McCain can keep his own forays into the Kerry states, in Wisconsin, Michigan, and New Hampshire.

[Ramius31]

This is the third state that appears to have come off the table since Obama's campaign laid out an ambitious 18-state battlefield.

I wonder how much of his donors money he blew in these three states?

[Flint]

I wonder how much of his donors money he blew in these three states?

Apparently, enough to determine these are "safe McCain states" and no more. But if we are going to denigrate candidates for "blowing" money campaigning in states they end up losing, then historically this is a healthy percentage of total campaign dollars for every Presidential candidate. I believe it was Richard Nixon who was widely criticized by his supporters for his rash campaign promise to campaign in all 50 states, stranding him off the media radar in some state he had no chance of winning during the crucial final week of the campaign - which he lost by an eyelash.

So there's a tradeoff going on here. No candidate wants to spend too much money or time on a hopeless state, but there are guaranteed to be states that candidate cannot know is hopeless before spending SOME time and money there. So the underlying issue is, how soon can you accurately identify these states, and cut your losses as soon as possible?

Eventually, one candidate will end up losing the election. Whichever one it is shouldn't be regarded as having "blown" every contributed penny. If there's no real competition, we'd have an effective one-party system. One-party systems have a rather poor record around the world.

(The notion that Obama had any chance at all in North Dakota baffles me. What was he thinking?)

[Potemkin]

Makes sense to me.

Why waste money in states you know you have no chance of winning or know you have in the bag?

[Ramius31]

(The notion that Obama had any chance at all in North Dakota baffles me. What was he thinking?)

That is what I was wondering also. I employeed someone from North Dakota once. She was fond of saying that when she moved, she forgot to turn the lights out and there was no one left to do it for her.

[A.T. Hagan]

This is the third state that appears to have come off the table since Obama's campaign laid out an ambitious 18-state battlefield. His campaign also pulled out of Georgia, and Sarah Palin's nomination appears to have put Alaska out of reach.

Georgia is not a small state. Does he think he has it in the bag or feel that he can't win there?

.....Alan.

[Flint]

This chart indicates that Georgia is considered a very safe McCain state. Current poll results are summarized on this map. McCain owns the Old South and the midwest, Obama owns the northeast and the west coast. The election will probably swing on the states bordering the Old South - Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Indiana.

One gets the creepy feeling that we're fighting the civil war all over again, for pretty much the same reasons.

[cpeterka]

North Dakota tends to be rural republicans. At the most he could hope to get 1 of the 3 Electorial votes.
Cost - Benefit ratio just isn't there.
Better to spend your money elsewhere.
IMHO ... it's a smart move.

[Johnny]

Wow I would of thought Georgia was a sure thing for Obama or at least his by a few points.

I wonder if Barr is gonna pull any votes from Ga?

[A.T. Hagan]

Well, Flint's site even has Mississippi as solid for McCain. Interesting.

Unfortunately Florida is listed as a toss-up so we're going to be afflicted with more and more phone calls and crap in my mail box. Diana and I are in opposite parties this year so we catch them all.

.....Alan.

[Flint]

Originally Posted by Alan

Flint's site even has Mississippi as solid for McCain.

I don't see why this is so interesting. Mississippi is averaging a 15% margin for McCain, which is not even remotely close. What it indicates is that the Mississippi vote is breaking down along racial lines, with VERY few voters crossing those lines. Pretty much the same across the entire Old South.

[Ramius31]

Originally Posted by Flint

I don't see why this is so interesting. Mississippi is averaging a 15% margin for McCain, which is not even remotely close. What it indicates is that the Mississippi vote is breaking down along racial lines, with VERY few voters crossing those lines. Pretty much the same across the entire Old South.

Bullshit. Mississippi trends this way in EVERY election. Calling a solid red-state a rascist state is out of line.

[Potemkin]

Originally Posted by Ramius31

Bullshit. Mississippi trends this way in EVERY election. Calling a solid red-state a rascist state is out of line.

Ahh, I don't think Flint said that.

He said that it was "breaking down along racial lines."

There is a difference.

[Flint]

Bullshit. Mississippi trends this way in EVERY election. Calling a solid red-state a rascist state is out of line.

Also, I suspect we have found someone who has not lived for very many years in Mississippi. Or Alabama. Or Tennessee...

[Ramius31]

Originally Posted by Flint

Also, I suspect we have found someone who has not lived for very many years in Mississippi. Or Alabama. Or Tennessee...

Really? I lived in Millington Tennessee for 4 years. My sister and her family live in Mississippi. I have watched that state recover from their racist past while others in the North, Midwest and West have devolved.

All regions have their own special problems. I just had lunch with a guy from California who had no problem sitting in a Southern restaraunt spewing his racial bias against Asians....

[A.T. Hagan]

Yes, conservatives generally vote for whatever is passing for the conservative candidate of the day while the liberals vote for whomever the liberal is. There is hardly anything new about this.

.....Alan.

[Flint]

I have watched that state recover from their racist past while others in the North, Midwest and West have devolved.

Ah. so where YOU live, everything is getting better, but where everyone else in the whole damn country lives, everything is going downhill racially. Uh huh. right. Always them against you, and always you are in the right. Meanwhile, in Mississippi the campaign is breaking down along racial lines. As usual. It's even possible that my personal experience is more-or-less representative, and there are a lot of "rascists" around here.

(Here in Alabama, the informal state motto is "Thank God for Mississippi", since this means Alabama only comes in 49th out of 50 in quality of life metrics. But racial attitudes have nothing to do with this, of course.)