Heir to the Saudi throne has died

[Catbird]

Per Reuters, "Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz al-Saud died at dawn on Saturday". He was 86 so and had been treated for colon cancer so it's not a big surprise. He was a force for modernization in the country and, as Min of Defense, the architect of the military ties between the U.S. and Saudi.

The King, who is also in his late 80's needs to pick an heir pretty quickly. Most analysts agree that it'll probably be another half-brother, Prince Nayef. He's in his late 70's and is currently the Interior Minister. In most countries, that implies leadership of state security and intelligence. He's also considered one of the most conservative Saudi leaders.

So, fun times coming in Saudi when the King dies.

[CanadaSue]

If the potental pool of 'direct heirs' are all elderly - interesting times indeed. It may become even more interesting if younger heirs are considered. Would 'average' Saudis then push for a more open society or want to become even more restrictive?

[Ought Six]

They have legions of spare Princes. The al-Saud royal family has far worse problems to worry about than a dead heir or three.

[Brihard]

Who it should happen to be will matter though. A succession of quick deaths over several years - which WILL happen - could be more problematic if it leads to the transfer of power several times over a short period of time. The more their citizens have cause to think about the arbitrariness of monarchical executive authority unconstrained by other constitutional mechanisms, the more awkward it could get for the dynasty.

[Catbird]

There are also more short-term implications to the issue of who is named as heir. Nayef, who has been all but officially named, is very conservative and considered to be close to the clergy that 'advise' the Saudi ruler. He's taken a pretty hard stand against the protests of the Arab Spring and as Interior Minisiter, he knows where the bodies are buried and who the 'subversives' are within his country and the ME in general. Some analysts consider it likely that he was the driving force behind sending Saudi troops into Bahrain to 'assist' in keeping order. He's also spoken out against some of the modernizing steps taken by his brother such as allowing women to vote by 2015. Should he accede to the throne, it seems likely that he'll direct and support a return to an even more Sunni-oriented, hard-lined Islamic state.

Nayef is also very anti-Iran and given recent events, naming him as heir will send a message to the Iranian leadership which will undoubtedly increase tensions.

As far as relations with the U.S. are concerned, officially Washington likes him and really likes his son and assistant. But this quote from a WaPo article gives a different perspective of Nayef's thought process.

"...“Nayef got religion, not after 9/11, but after the two attacks in 2003,” said Alterman. Earlier, Nayef had bristled at questions about the 15 Saudis among the 19 hijackers who struck New York and Washington and about the role of private Saudi money in financing al-Qaeda. And he infuriated some in the United States when he said in a 2002 interview with a Kuwait newspaper: “We still ask ourselves: Who has benefited from Sept. 11 attacks?” adding, in a reference to Jews, “I think they were the protagonists of such attacks.” "

It'll be interesting for the U.S. to have diplomatic relations with a Saudi king who has publicly blamed Israel for the 9/11 attacks.