H5N1 five mutations away from a pandemicto become efficient at transmission

[Kassy]

H5N1 five mutations away from a pandemicto become efficient at transmission?


Only five mutations in 2 genes are needed for H5N1 to become efficient at transmission in mammals without losing any of it's virulence.

Ron Fouchier of Rotterdam Medical Center found out which mutations were needed.

Now there was a trick they used. At first they added three mutations known to make bird flu transmissible to mammals. This gave the version we flubees have known through news reports.

It didn't transmit between ferrets but in these tests they are separated in cages. We have seen some first (and possible second) generation infections in humans between parents and kids (not neccesarily in that order) or kids & kids which can be contributed to closer contact. Flu can be transmitted by touch (wipe nose touch kid etc) and i think they keep the ferrets out of touching range since the point is demonstrating airbourne transmission in the ferret experiments.

The next step was infecting new generations of ferrets with that virus and after ten passenges or generations of growing
the virus in ferrets it gained the ability to to transmit without losing much of the virulence.

Now the last phase is a bit like cheating because the scientists make sure it's transmitted every time which is better then out there in the real world.

On the other hand all mutations have been seen before in bird flu, just not together. This research shows it's possible for H5N1 to become a pandemic.

It's a lot more difficult in real life compared to the labs and there's no point losing sleep over this (if you feel inclined go read the economy forum).


http://www.newscientist.com/article/...ef=online-news

[CanadaSue]

Not going to lose a wink over it. If a single virion produces a million new ones - most of those would probably be mutants. Most would either never survive to infect another cell or be 'revenue neutral'. Of those left with mutations useful to them, (the virions), most wouldn't affect host species in the form of increased transmissibility, virulence or any other trait that makes infection/illness tougher on the infected species.

But say you end up with one or more virions with the 'right' combination of mutations. Is there'a a susceptible human host around? Most likely not - statistically speaking; or we'd have seen this way more often in the past with other flu strains - mild or severe. What if there is? The person may become infected but have a robust enough immune system so as not to fall ill. If they do fall ill, the next person they come across may encounter them when they're no longer infectious or not infectius enough to cause a full blown infection in that next person.

If our newly infected person heads home to a solitary existence, they strain may 'dead end'. Either the sick one recovers without contacting others or dies... without contacing others. The strain might not replicate true. Weather, concentration of humans in the vicinity - a ton of factors have to come together in just the right way & I suspect we don't know half of them.

I think, (pulling this out of my scrawny butt based on what history has shown); that it's just not that easy.

It will happen again - someday. I'm not going to try to predict when or what strain. For all we know, it could prove to be a completely innocuous strain, (curerntly), that only infects finches in Bosnia in its current state. Two years from now, it could be raging world wide with a CFR of 14%.

[Sysiphus]

I'm with CS on this one. There is something inherent in H5N1 that keeps it from being the pandemic strain. Must be the H5 portion, as there have been pandemic N1 strains in the past.

[Malcolm]

Some people think the worlds population will be 9 billion in 4 years........ and that would make rapid transmision of a deadly disease very easy.
The only thing that stopped H5N1 escaping from the Hong Kong markets a few years ago is the fact that the doors where locked overnight ..........remember.
1997..........
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influen...s_subtype_H5N1

[Malcolm]

The true "believers" are doctors and scientists..............

You Tube

[Malcolm]

20/12/2011
Hong Kong has just raised its Bird Flu alert level......... culling thousands of chickens again
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news...-1226227214198

[CanadaSue]

They're not going to risk another breakout originating in their territory.

[Auburn Boy]

It's all about the statistics, probabilities, and the combinatorials..,

Ask GSGS for a discussion.

[Exodia]

The jumping off point for tons of viri and the worlds largest population. A match made in hell...

[andy]

It might only take 5-10 years for some idiot Muslim extreamist or evangelical or anarchist to get a few hundred thousand dollars together to end civilization