Go Back   This Blue Marble, a Global Current Events Discussion Forum > Health and Medicine > Flu Clinic > Flu Discussion

Flu Discussion This subroom is intended for "soft discussion" of flu-related topics. This includes general chat, joke threads, scenarios, discussions of personal feelings, etc.

View Poll Results: your estimate of the 2012-flu-pandemic probability
0%-10% 8 53.33%
10%-20% 4 26.67%
20%-30% 1 6.67%
30%-40% 0 0%
40%-50% 0 0%
50%-60% 0 0%
60%-70% 1 6.67%
70%-80% 0 0%
80%-90% 1 6.67%
90%-100% 0 0%
Voters: 15. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 01-03-2012, 04:17 PM   #26
Kassy
Eurothrash
 
Kassy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: EU ~ NL ~ 0 0 0
Posts: 8,422
Thanks: 237
Thanked 260 Times in 215 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by gsgs View Post
flu-C is also estasblished in humans. I once saw an rough estimate that flu-B
jumped to humans 4000 years ago and flu-C 8000 years ago and since
then evolve in humans. Flu-C is usually mild and we rarely hear about it,
very few flu-C sequences at genbank as compared with flu-A
Thanks! We used to have a thread with a collection of various phylogenetic trees at CE which touched on this subject. This was roughly what i recalled

*

Quote:
I'm not sure I understand your question:
> Why because they (<1900 pandemic strains) were around/must have been around?
(direct subtypes link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:In...a_subtypes.svg )

the suspicion comes from some old blood-immunity tests in old people who survived old flu
But it's unreliable.
From the mutation rates we can estimate when strains/segments went to humans.
It mutates slightly different in humans, preferring more A,T nucleotides.
Most segments came to humans 100-150 years ago (except the new pandemic segments
in 1957,1968,2009 of course).
Most avian segments have a common origin ~200 years ago, HA and NA are older, >400
When you go back 500 years or more, the whole HA,NA system was probably different :
not 16 HAs and 9 NAs as now (IMO)

The human H3 in 19th century must have been different from the H3 in horses,dogs,
which is not so old, jumped from birds to horses ~1950-1960

H3N8 is quite common in birds, e.g. Alaska waterfowl
http://thisbluemarble.com/showthread.php?t=18066

Sorry for being unclear (watching The Hangover which turned out a much better movie then i thought) but you got the essence.

I really wonder about the reservoirs in the 19th century. We have no sequences so we can only guess at the composition over time and there's no reason why there should not be intrusion from birds via some mammels to humans and we don't know how much that interferes with the extrapolated mutation rates.
__________________
Free hugs
Kassy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-03-2012, 11:08 PM   #27
gsgs
searching for truth
 
gsgs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,200
Thanks: 0
Thanked 29 Times in 26 Posts
I wonder, how it started. There was a common source in
segments 1,2,3,5,7 in ~1750-1850. Maybe several big
bird-panzootics, that replaced all other previous strains
in that segment ?
__________________
a chart says more than 1000 words
my links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H

Last edited by gsgs; 01-03-2012 at 11:18 PM.
gsgs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-08-2012, 06:23 PM   #28
Malcolm
Senior Level 2
 
Malcolm's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 2,506
Thanks: 2
Thanked 84 Times in 69 Posts
If you read the link below it might influence your opinion...it was posted 17 hours ago
http://www.ukprogressive.co.uk/south...icle16675.html
Malcolm is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-2012, 05:43 PM   #29
Malcolm
Senior Level 2
 
Malcolm's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 2,506
Thanks: 2
Thanked 84 Times in 69 Posts
17/1/12
I am going out on a "limb" here but I am expecting another UN warning soon.
There is some-thing nasty still going around here and it is the middle of summer.
I had it at the week-end and I think it was a "bacterial lung infection" .
At the time I had a "wait and see" opinion and the article in todays Melbourne Age makes me think perhaps others had it too..........Im O.K. now. Article below
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/ma...116-1q39f.html
Malcolm is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-2012, 02:06 AM   #30
gsgs
searching for truth
 
gsgs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,200
Thanks: 0
Thanked 29 Times in 26 Posts
didn't they also have some summer-flu last season in Australia ?


weekly reported flu-A infections in Australia
2010:2,1,0,0,1,1,0,3,3,1,1,2,0,0,4,2,5,1,3,3,4,2,0 ,5,12,18,
14,14,15,29,34,23,40,52,58,50,34,64,50,61,25,29,28 ,19,13,6,13,6,5,8,13,15

2011:14,10,14,8,16,17,21,34,22,32,16,11,15,7,8,7,3 ,5,2,5,6,1,3,7,20,17,
26,54,57,81,66,99,81,101,93,101,91,101,87,68,56,28 ,10,13,18,15,14,14,14,7,2,25

2012:3,3,12
__________________
a chart says more than 1000 words
my links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H

Last edited by gsgs; 01-25-2012 at 02:29 AM.
gsgs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-23-2012, 07:34 PM   #31
ltow
lurker level 3.14
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 835
Thanks: 10
Thanked 17 Times in 15 Posts
what do you estimate is the probability that a new influenza pandemic
will start in 2012 ?

90.00009%
__________________
The best grape kool aid is made with hot tap water then cooled for an hour or more in the fridge. The sugar melts and mixes properly. Making kool aid with cold tap water is just barbaric.
ltow is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
2012, pandemic, poll, probability

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:02 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright © Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.