2012 pandemic probability poll

[Kassy]

Originally Posted by gsgs

flu-C is also estasblished in humans. I once saw an rough estimate that flu-B
jumped to humans 4000 years ago and flu-C 8000 years ago and since
then evolve in humans. Flu-C is usually mild and we rarely hear about it,
very few flu-C sequences at genbank as compared with flu-A

Thanks! We used to have a thread with a collection of various phylogenetic trees at CE which touched on this subject. This was roughly what i recalled

*

I'm not sure I understand your question:
> Why because they (<1900 pandemic strains) were around/must have been around?
(direct subtypes link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:In...a_subtypes.svg )

the suspicion comes from some old blood-immunity tests in old people who survived old flu
But it's unreliable.
From the mutation rates we can estimate when strains/segments went to humans.
It mutates slightly different in humans, preferring more A,T nucleotides.
Most segments came to humans 100-150 years ago (except the new pandemic segments
in 1957,1968,2009 of course).
Most avian segments have a common origin ~200 years ago, HA and NA are older, >400
When you go back 500 years or more, the whole HA,NA system was probably different :
not 16 HAs and 9 NAs as now (IMO)

The human H3 in 19th century must have been different from the H3 in horses,dogs,
which is not so old, jumped from birds to horses ~1950-1960

H3N8 is quite common in birds, e.g. Alaska waterfowl

http://thisbluemarble.com/showthread.php?t=18066

Sorry for being unclear (watching The Hangover which turned out a much better movie then i thought) but you got the essence.

I really wonder about the reservoirs in the 19th century. We have no sequences so we can only guess at the composition over time and there's no reason why there should not be intrusion from birds via some mammels to humans and we don't know how much that interferes with the extrapolated mutation rates.

[gsgs]

I wonder, how it started. There was a common source in
segments 1,2,3,5,7 in ~1750-1850. Maybe several big
bird-panzootics, that replaced all other previous strains
in that segment ?

[Malcolm]

If you read the link below it might influence your opinion...it was posted 17 hours ago
http://www.ukprogressive.co.uk/south...icle16675.html

[Malcolm]

17/1/12
I am going out on a "limb" here but I am expecting another UN warning soon.
There is some-thing nasty still going around here and it is the middle of summer.
I had it at the week-end and I think it was a "bacterial lung infection" .
At the time I had a "wait and see" opinion and the article in todays Melbourne Age makes me think perhaps others had it too..........Im O.K. now. Article below
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/ma...116-1q39f.html

[gsgs]

didn't they also have some summer-flu last season in Australia ?


weekly reported flu-A infections in Australia
2010:2,1,0,0,1,1,0,3,3,1,1,2,0,0,4,2,5,1,3,3,4,2,0 ,5,12,18,
14,14,15,29,34,23,40,52,58,50,34,64,50,61,25,29,28 ,19,13,6,13,6,5,8,13,15

2011:14,10,14,8,16,17,21,34,22,32,16,11,15,7,8,7,3 ,5,2,5,6,1,3,7,20,17,
26,54,57,81,66,99,81,101,93,101,91,101,87,68,56,28 ,10,13,18,15,14,14,14,7,2,25

2012:3,3,12

[ltow]

what do you estimate is the probability that a new influenza pandemic
will start in 2012 ?

90.00009%