It's All Greek To Me

[ukmum]

The EU seem to be mixed in the view whether Greece will leave the Euro, but publically all they can say is that they will be supporting Greece.
What a mess!

[sandyd]

I keep reminding myself more people survive these kinds of crashes, than not.

Just not as much fun as good times.

[CanadaSue]

Fun? The word gets stricken from most peoples' vocabulary to be replaced by more urgent words such as adequate food, clean water, work, money - little concerns like that.

[sandyd]

Anyone who can't find moments of fun, in simple things, like enough food that day for the whole family and the smiles on the kids faces, isn't going to survive.

And yeah, I know a lot of folks will give up cuz they don't see fun in that.

[ukmum]

I dont think survival is fun, survival is about having the backbone to soldier though regardless...to battle on when things look hopeless in the hope that things will improve.

[oldasrocks]

Originally Posted by ukmum

I dont think survival is fun, survival is about having the backbone to soldier though regardless...to battle on when things look hopeless in the hope that things will improve.

Disagree, Survival can have good moments. Slowing life down and rediscovering the basics of life and family. No big thrill in buying a piece of meat but hunting it down gives a sense of accomplishment. Using your brain to solve problems for yourself insteading making some CEO richer is fun. Surviving gives you pride.

On the opposite side -getting everything for free lowers a persons self worth.

[Kassy]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18076757

Meanwhile in Greece they figured out that there's no majority either way nor is there enough support for another technocratic government so there will be a new election.

I guess that'll come down to a 'should we stay or should we go' vote about the euro.
Syriza vs the old guard.

Spanish and Italian government bonds are already over the 6% mark.

[leistb]

Bank runs may be starting.

According to the transcript, Greek depositors withdrew 700 million euros from the nation's local banks recently, said President Karolos Papoulias, though the exact timing of the transfer was unclear.

Gold and oil are down sharply from this morning as well.

[sandyd]

I think bank runs have been quietly ongoing for some time now.

The pace may be picking up....

[Catbird]

One set of predictions:

"How Greece could leave the eurozone – in five difficult steps"

"Mass unemployment in Greece, inflation at 50%, a devastating recession and Greeks heading for the borders – that's the apocalyptic scenario being painted by some economists in the increasingly likely event that Greece leaves the eurozone in coming months.

Greece is small in economic terms: it contributes only 2.2% of eurozone GDP. But withdrawal from the single currency would unleash chaos in the country, and have potentially severe knock-on effects on other euro nations.

US bank Citigroup now reckons there is a 75% chance that Greece will pull out of the single currency within the next 18 months. This would set a precedent, and the eurozone could quickly unravel if other vulnerable members like Spain and Italy were to follow suit.

The fallout from a Greek exit would quickly wipe 20% off Greece's GDP, send inflation soaring to 40%-50%, and see Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio soaring over 200%, say analysts at French bank BNP Paribas."

And now Der Spiegel is actually calling for it to leave.

"Der Spiegel calls for Greece exit from the euro "

""Acropolis, Adieu! Why Greece must leave the euro," reads the front-page headline of Germany's most influential magazine Der Spiegel, joining a chorus of voices in Europe's paymaster country suggesting an exit may now be the best option.

...Der Spiegel, one of Germany's most respected news outlets, went one step further, arguing a Greek exit was the only way forwards now. Its front page depicted a splintered euro coin strewn across ancient Greek ruins at dusk.

"Despite all the skepticism, our editors have until now pleaded for Athens to remain in the euro zone," Der Spiegel wrote in its editorial column. "Since the parliamentary elections at the beginning of May, Spiegel observers have changed their opinion."

"The Greeks were never ripe for the currency union and they still are not today. The attempt to make the country sustainably healthy through reforms has failed," Spiegel journalists wrote in their in-depth report on Greece.

"In the meantime it is clear that the exit is in their own interest. Only an exit of Greece from the euro zone gives the country a chance in the long term to get back on its feet.""

[ukmum]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18082552

Greece to set up Interim Gov till elections

[Pablo Escobar]

If a Goldman Sachs alumnus is the head of the caretaker or subsequent government, I shall be very put out.

[penguinzee]

Yep, the bank runs are definitely getting going... and the MSM have picked up on it...

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news...-on-banks?lite

This is just Monday... I imagine the numbers are higher for Tuesday...

Franc (penguinzee)

[ukmum]

Millions are being taken out of greek banks

Greek newspapers report that around 700m euros (£558m; $897m) has been withdrawn from high street banks over the past few days, the BBC's Richard Galpin in Athens says.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18082552


I suspect the real figure is much more when you consider other commercial investments



On a positive note the exchange rate is looking good for my holiday to Cyprus in 2 weeks....

[leistb]

ECB is halting some monetary policy operations to some Greek banks.

[ukmum]

17th June date for new elections.

[penguinzee]

Don't be too surprised if Greece doesn't make it to those elections without violence...

Leistb, the way I read it over at ZH, is if a bank is in negative equity (aka no capital on hand) they won't work with them... considering the bank run that's underway (700 mil euros on Monday, 800+ mil on Tuesday) I'd say ALL the Greek banks are in negative equity... and I'd be getting the hell out of Dodge, too, if I was there...

Franc (penguinzee)

[leistb]

Originally Posted by penguinzee

Don't be too surprised if Greece doesn't make it to those elections without violence...

Leistb, the way I read it over at ZH, is if a bank is in negative equity (aka no capital on hand) they won't work with them... considering the bank run that's underway (700 mil euros on Monday, 800+ mil on Tuesday) I'd say ALL the Greek banks are in negative equity... and I'd be getting the hell out of Dodge, too, if I was there...

Franc (penguinzee)

Agreed. Looking at various threads on the internets there's a persistent meme of a 50 Euro withdrawal limit at ATMs. I haven't been able to verify this. I would be looking for some form of capital controls coming shortly.

I've read a number of different pieces stating how a departure would occur with regards to a reversion back to the drachma but nothing definitive has emerged. Have you seen anything concrete?

This is going to get real messy pretty quick.

[penguinzee]

Yeah, I've heard that too, makes sense from the banks perspective, but not if you're trying to get to your money... nothing solid on how they would convert to drachmas, don't know if this has ever been done before voluntarily... and yes, the mess is getting quite large already, and will be worse...

Wouldn't it be funny-ironic if JP Morgan had bought a bunch of those Greek Bonds (the newly-issued ones) that have already dropped to ~ 20% of their value? Trade of the Year, I heard it called...

Franc (penguinzee)

[leistb]

Originally Posted by penguinzee

Yeah, I've heard that too, makes sense from the banks perspective, but not if you're trying to get to your money... nothing solid on how they would convert to drachmas, don't know if this has ever been done before voluntarily... and yes, the mess is getting quite large already, and will be worse...

Wouldn't it be funny-ironic if JP Morgan had bought a bunch of those Greek Bonds (the newly-issued ones) that have already dropped to ~ 20% of their value? Trade of the Year, I heard it called...

Franc (penguinzee)

It would be funny-ironic, hysterical even, if it weren't for the fact that you and I and all the other taxpayers will be the ones who ultimately suffer in the form of some backdoor-bailout.

[Sonny]

I'm guessing we still don't know the positions that got JPM in to trouble?

Anyone seen any big 'movements' starting in the past 6 weeks?

[Catbird]

Originally Posted by leistb

Agreed. Looking at various threads on the internets there's a persistent meme of a 50 Euro withdrawal limit at ATMs. I haven't been able to verify this. I would be looking for some form of capital controls coming shortly.

I'm seeing multiple reports on Twitter from people in Greece that they are withdrawing more than 50 Euro.

[leistb]

Originally Posted by Catbird

I'm seeing multiple reports on Twitter from people in Greece that they are withdrawing more than 50 Euro.

Ok. Good to know. Thank you.

[Malcolm]

50 Euro withdrawal limit would realy "piss me off"
No wonder they are "rioting"

[Oric]

Two news on Turkish Media

1. A Dutch tourist got beaten because he was mistaken for being German
2. Bank runs intensify