Sunspot AR1515 X1.1 flare

[linttrap]

X-FLARE: Giant sunspot AR1515 unleashed a strong X1.1-class solar flare on July 6th at 2308 UT. Because Earth is well-connected to the blast site by solar magnetic fields, a fusillade of protons accelerated by the explosion might soon reach our planet.

www.spaceweather.com

[Catbird]

Pretty pic!




via MSNBC: "image from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows an X1.1-class solar flare erupting from the sun on Friday"

[Ross]

http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/research...onitoring.html

[NowVoyager]

So possible disturbances in signals and extra SPF 1,000?

[flourbug]

heh... I forgot about the X flare and spent much of yesterday afternoon in the pool.

Remind me when I start to glow in the dark and ask, "Why? Why me?"

[linttrap]

X-FLARE!


Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th at 1653 UT. Because the sunspot was directly facing Earth at the time of the blast, this is a geoeffective event. Stay tuned for updates about possible CMEs and radio blackouts.

http://spaceweather.com/

[flourbug]

uh oh.

[Sysiphus]

Not huge, but given the trajectory, this cannot be good.

[oldasrocks]

Aren't we warm enough already?????? We picked some cherry tomatoes and they tasted cooked.

[CanadaSue]

Damn it!

MY tv coverage of Tour is going to get all pixellated on Saturday morning, ain't it?

Seriously, this could suck.

[NowVoyager]

Originally Posted by linttrap

X-FLARE!


Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th at 1653 UT. Because the sunspot was directly facing Earth at the time of the blast, this is a geoeffective event. Stay tuned for updates about possible CMEs and radio blackouts.

http://spaceweather.com/

Just scanned the site, but didn't see a time frame as to when this could be affecting us.

Thus far nothing unusual with radio or cable reception here, but imagine it depends with this flare reaches our atmosphere.

Thanks!!

[linttrap]

Finally located some kind of timeline:

A significant CME is seen by STEREO B. Impact as soon as 0-12 UTC 07/14.

EDT=UTC-4 hours.

Somebody better check me on this, but by my reckoning this event will start somewhere between 8pm July 13 and 8am July 14.

Graphic of magnetopause, real time:



http://pixie.spasci.com/DynMod/

[jane333]

Mmmmmmm. Sizzling!

http://youtu.be/TsLmXaewkag

[NowVoyager]

Originally Posted by linttrap

Finally located some kind of timeline:

A significant CME is seen by STEREO B. Impact as soon as 0-12 UTC 07/14.

EDT=UTC-4 hours.

Somebody better check me on this, but by my reckoning this event will start somewhere between 8pm July 13 and 8am July 14.

Graphic of magnetopause, real time:



http://pixie.spasci.com/DynMod/

Thank you, Linttrap!!!

Not that we have the tv or news on 24/7, but I don't recall so much as a 5 second blurb on this. Might have missed it but if nothing else you'd think the MSM would use it as a 'attention grabber story'.

Then again with the problems with the power outage caused a few weeks back and a few in the public eye pointing out how at risk our grid is, perhaps they less attention, the better?

[LvDemWings]

The NBC nightly news had it which I found very unusual.

[NowVoyager]

Originally Posted by LvDemWings

The NBC nightly news had it which I found very unusual.

Thanks!!!

Hubby is the TV person for the most part, which means he has either the local 24/7 station or FOX cable on, unless there's a Rambo, Rocky or John Wayne movie on

[NowVoyager]

Linttrap, your estimate of the timing of the x class flare was spot on!!!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...DtfW_blog.html

The R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout today at 12:49 EDT (1649 UTC) was accompanied by an earth-directed CME. Hampered by limited observations of the event, SWPC forecasters are now anticipating the passage of the [coronal mass ejection] around 1:00 a.m. EDT, Saturday, July 14. G1 (minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity is expected to then ensue through the rest of the day.

In short, NOAA is predicting minor effects from this space weather event - no major impacts on the power grid or satellites anticipated - although we remind you forecasting space weather is difficult and surprises are possible. Sky watchers in northern U.S. (and high latitudes) may have an opportunity to see aurora late Friday night into early Saturday morning.

[drummagick]

10:00 PM my time! I can be awake for this!

[LvDemWings]

Of course, after weeks of no rain and nary a cloud in the sky it is suppose to be cloudy and rainy Saturday and Sunday.

[NowVoyager]

FWIW ...... this video is saying that the X flare ETA has been moved up to about 5 AM Saturday morning, EST, with the eastern side of the US - the other side of the Atlantic, being the most potentially vulnerable.

The reason being given is the flare has increased its speed.

You Tube

I can't vouch for this video, per Spaceweather, the ETA of this flare has been moved up.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

REVISED FORECAST:

The CME launched toward Earth by yesterday's X-flare is moving faster than originally thought. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab have revised their forecast accordingly, advancing the cloud's expected arrival time to 09:17 UT (5:17 am EDT) on Saturday, July 14th. Weekend auroras are likely.

X-FLARE! Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th. Because the sunspot is directly facing Earth, everything about the blast was geoeffective. For one thing, it hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) directly toward our planet. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 09:17 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms.

[flourbug]

Well, that's where WE are. It should hit about an hour and a half before sunrise. So if there's anything funky with TBM, blame it on the sunspot.

6:43am Saturday (EDT) - Sunrise in Tampa, FL

[NowVoyager]

Originally Posted by flourbug

Well, that's where WE are. It should hit about an hour and a half before sunrise. So if there's anything funky with TBM, blame it on the sunspot.

6:43am Saturday (EDT) - Sunrise in Tampa, FL

Yeah ....

Forgot to ask the tech today at the scheduled pacer clinic if a hit from an X class could mess with a pacer. I'd kick myself if I had the energy

Think I'll scoot up and top of the tank and get him his Lotto ticket as well

[Mousehound]

They have a warning out for us as of a half hour ago, and it will go on through my night here. We might be able to see some northern lights tonight. I've never seen them yet, although we have had some here in the past.

[Kassy]

This is about 1989 blackouts related to a solar storm but it's interesting because it tells about currents building up in the Earth itself. The effect is different depending on the rock type you're sitting on.

http://www.sci-tech-today.com/story....d=102005RMO7SO