Canary Island Evacuated Amid Volcano Fears

[NowVoyager]

Originally Posted by Pablo Escobar

There was uplift last year, just not as rapid. I believe Mt St helens inflated feet before popping.[COLOR="Silver"]

Yes, it did.

The bulge developed on the north face of the mountain. And it was very considerable, about 5 feet a day per the records.

So the relatively minor rising happening on El Hierro, of a centimeter a day, is nothing by comparison.

Whew!

With everything else going on around the world, a major volcanic eruption is the last thing anyone needs. Though I suppose, no one ever wants one



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:MS...e_04-27-80.jpg

http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/..._slideset.html

[Pablo Escobar]

evidently, the uplift is pretty serious this time...... in regards to the rate of uplift vs previous episodes... 6 cms just in a few days. Think about how heavy earth is, and how much energy it takes to lift up that much weight..... Some serious, rapid, magma injection is going on.



http://www.seis.nagoya-u.ac.jp/sagiy...y_gps/FRON.pdf

[Pablo Escobar]

I believe, if you click on the link, you will see three graphs. EW stands, I think, for east west, NS stands for north south, and UD stands for up down.

In effect, the point known as FRON, has moved in three axis 6 cm in days. I don't know if that is a good thing or bad thing......

If it were just 6 cm up, then that would imply everything around it was going up at the same rate.

Picture a balloon. If you inflate the balloon and measure the axis of movement of a point on top of the balloon, it would only go up. the farther down the balloon you go to measure the starting point, the more you involve the other axis in the displacement. On an island, that is a volcano, horizontal displacement is problematic, as that increases the liklihood of a catastrophic landslide failure, similar to Mt. St. Helens, and a landslide failure of an Island Volcano is what will generate a tsunami.

Blowing up, in this case, is a best case scenario for costal regions, than blowing out first.

[NowVoyager]

Originally Posted by Pablo Escobar

I believe, if you click on the link, you will see three graphs. EW stands, I think, for east west, NS stands for north south, and UD stands for up down.

In effect, the point known as FRON, has moved in three axis 6 cm in days. I don't know if that is a good thing or bad thing......

If it were just 6 cm up, then that would imply everything around it was going up at the same rate.

Picture a balloon. If you inflate the balloon and measure the axis of movement of a point on top of the balloon, it would only go up. the farther down the balloon you go to measure the starting point, the more you involve the other axis in the displacement. On an island, that is a volcano, horizontal displacement is problematic, as that increases the liklihood of a catastrophic landslide failure, similar to Mt. St. Helens, and a landslide failure of an Island Volcano is what will generate a tsunami.

Blowing up, in this case, is a best case scenario for costal regions, than blowing out first.

Yes, a 'vertical' eruption would have serious effects on the island itself, but also as it entered the atmosphere, residual effects as it traveled. Much as when Mt Pinatubo and Mt Eyjafjallajökull.

But a 'horizontal' blow out / eruption would not only have the effects as a vertical eruption, but the added and likely even worse problems caused by the tsunami generating landslide.

Then again, there's more more seismic activity the last couple years at Yellowstone, with is just one massive caldera.

Gotta love this planet: Incredible beauty......... sometimes deadly, but stunningly beautiful.

[Pablo Escobar]

This active eruption cycle is building up to some sort of eruption. The pattern is earthquake, crack the stone, relieve the pressure, rebuild pressure, earthquake, crack the stone, etc, etc.....

8 minutes ago, anothre plu 4 earthquake.... So far this eruption series, the quakes are on average 1 magnitude stronger, than the prior eruption series, it seems to me.

No harmonic tremor yet, which is indicitive of eruption in progress. So far, just Volcanic earthquakes..

http://www.ign.es/ign/head/volcaSena...ia=02&tip o=1

[Pablo Escobar]

Could you sleep on top of a volcano with this happening? filmed a few minutes ago, I think by someone living in La Restinga, says it's been like that all night.

You Tube

[sandyd]

Depends on if I'm thinking I gotta leave or am staying 'come what may'.

I've slept through or gone right back to sleep after lots of EQ's and thunderstorms, so I might!

[NowVoyager]

Originally Posted by Pablo Escobar

Could you sleep on top of a volcano with this happening? filmed a few minutes ago, I think by someone living in La Restinga, says it's been like that all night.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ir7OV...hannel&list=UL

I'd be inclined to leave. But leaving isn't always a viable option.

I suppose a person has to weigh their options and pick the ones they can live with. Or die with, as the case may be.

Myself? The die was long ago cast. Best we mortals can do is play the roll as best we can

[Pablo Escobar]

Here is an interesting blogger analysis of the GPS deformations being measured in the island....



two 4 pointers hit last night.

[NowVoyager]

Originally Posted by Pablo Escobar

Here is an interesting blogger analysis of the GPS deformations being measured in the island....



two 4 pointers hit last night.

At the risk of seeming dense, was there a link to the analysis? Or where the graphs the analysis?

I'm not able to determine which of the areas where the quakes hit, depth, etc. Sorry for being slow the uptake

Thanks!

[Pablo Escobar]

I thought about posting a link, and didn't, so call me lazy......



Here is the link to where I got the image.

http://earthquake-report.com/2011/09...sed-to-yellow/

ER reader Daniel made a fair attempt to calculate the different vectors of the horizontal deformation stations which leads to the source of the magma pressure. Daniel wrote that he took the deformation data from this well known IGN page ( http://www.ign.es/ign/resources/volc...ionHierro.html ) and used his knowledge about vector-calculating… (a java-applet did most of his work.). The map only shows N-E-deformation – NO inflation! Data used are those from July 2. All drawings on the map (except the numbers of the GPS stations) are Daniels layer.

---------- Post added at 01:38 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:35 PM ----------

however, the Spanish gov agency in charge of the crisis had the bizarre press conference that actually predicted that they expect two more large earthquakes in the next few hours, so no need to panic....

If they are correct, this could be the case of the first accurate earthquake prediction of size and time in history (unless I am exaggerating, but I can't recall any agency, anywhere ever doing that!).

[NowVoyager]

Thank you for the link!!


You're right on this being the first time a government has issued a 'formal' warning of a impending quake.

A few IIRC, such as Japan have issued via scholastic spokespeople the 'likelihood' of a quake within a wide time span. And in the US as well, but that was based on generalizations from past geologic events and the estimated time frames between such events.........

Be interesting how this plays out.

IMO based on what I'm reading on the link, the government is taking the activity seriously. I'm glad, but people being what they are, too often they'll get jaded and if nothing happens, they'll ignore real warnings.

[Pablo Escobar]

Q: What's the surest way to stop a volcano from quaking and erupting?

A: Predicting that it will......

Since the last press conference, the volcano has gone into a, relatively speaking, quiet mode.....

Har Har Har...

Inflation slowed down, large quantity of quakes is down to a few, and the size of quakes are much smaller.

[Pablo Escobar]

And as soon as I post, the earthquakes started back up again.

You can't make this up.

[mordan]

No. Please. You can. I do.

[linttrap]

Only once has a government predicted an earthquake and ordered an evacuation---China.

In winter 1975, Chinese officials ordered the evacuation of the city of Haicheng in northeastern Liaoning province the day before a 7.3 magnitude earthquake, based on reports of unusual animal behavior and changes in ground water levels. Still, more than 2,000 people died.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24646523.../#.T_i1i_VnBDw

But then, they totally blew the next opportunity for a successful prediction:

Strange environmental phenomena including changes in well water levels, were also reported a year later before a 7.6 magnitude earthquake in Tangshan in northeastern China that killed 240,000, Musson said.

A team of Chinese seismologists was sent to the region but didn't find any evidence to suggest an earthquake. As the seismologists were going home, they stopped for the night in Tangshan and were killed in the quake.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24646523.../#.T_i1i_VnBDw

[Samen]

Originally Posted by Pablo Escobar

And as soon as I post, the earthquakes started back up again.

You can't make this up.

I was going to jokingly post above the quoted post.

"There will newer be a eruption there"

Im happy i didn't.

[Lars]

Originally Posted by CanadaSue

Yeah - La Palma. Coincidently, I was half paying attention to a program SO was watching the other evening discussing precisely that risk - tsunami triggered by a landslide. The sheer volume of land potentially displaced into the sea would generate something so large, it's hard to wrap one's mind around it... if the modelling is correct. I've glanced at articles that suggest initial modelling imputs are incorrect - the size of the split in the island is greatly enlarged, the nature of the rock, (which presumably would mitigate much of the risk), is not accounted for...

The Canary mega-tsunami simulated-

You Tube

[Pablo Escobar]

and we're now experiencing little to few earthquakes, with deflation occurring where previous inflation had been.

Till the next episode.

Ta Ta!

[Samen]

So its all over.

[kaneohegirl]

sigh.... could the thing just blow up already sheeesh do something other than shake and shimmy...

[Pablo Escobar]

New swarm fired up again yesterday, but press is preoccupied with fires on other islands.

---------- Post added at 06:57 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:54 AM ----------

At some point crises fatigue is going to set in with the islanders. Many will leave, most will change religions to fatalism, aptly named of course.

[Auburn Boy]

Hey!

Are they ever going to stop evacuating that island?

Every day I come here, and there's a thread" "Canary Island evacuated amid volcano fears."

It's seems they are evacuating that place every day for the past year. It must be wearying for the inhabitants.

---------- Post added at 07:14 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:14 AM ----------

The Island that cried, "VOLCANO."



---------- Post added at 07:18 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:14 AM ----------

MEGA TSUNAMI.

Good video. There have been several of these types of videos on PBS and the History CHannel over the past ten years or so..,

---------- Post added at 07:23 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:18 AM ----------

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...Miy_DVok#t=73s

It would be like this or worse..,

[NowVoyager]

Originally Posted by Pablo Escobar

New swarm fired up again yesterday, but press is preoccupied with fires on other islands.

---------- Post added at 06:57 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:54 AM ----------

At some point crises fatigue is going to set in with the islanders. Many will leave, most will change religions to fatalism, aptly named of course.

Not to down play the seriousness of this or the impact on the lives of those who must decide to go or stay, but it is Friday and like they say, 'It's 5 o'clock somewhere'

You Tube

[Pablo Escobar]

Originally Posted by Auburn Boy

Hey!

Are they ever going to stop evacuating that island?

Every day I come here, and there's a thread" "Canary Island evacuated amid volcano fears."

It's seems they are evacuating that place every day for the past year. It must be wearying for the inhabitants.

---------- Post added at 07:14 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:14 AM ----------

The Island that cried, "VOLCANO."



---------- Post added at 07:18 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:14 AM ----------

MEGA TSUNAMI.

Good video. There have been several of these types of videos on PBS and the History CHannel over the past ten years or so..,

---------- Post added at 07:23 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:18 AM ----------

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...Miy_DVok#t=73s

It would be like this or worse..,

I could start a new thread, if everyone wanted to. It no longer is Lookout tower material, as the island is on a slow burner, if you will.

For the past month, the island has been experiencing swarms of earthquakes, most within the .7 to 2.4 range, but the major difference between these and the prior thousands of thousands, is that for the past month, most of these small quakes have been at the north west quadrant of the island, and at a relatively shallow depth that earlier this year or last years swarm.

Inflation and deflation data shows that the island is moving up and down from a magma chamber inflating and deflating, implying that whatever is going on down there, it isn't giving up yet.