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Old 11-16-2010, 12:48 PM   #1
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This is not a sky is falling alarm but there are lots of things happening in the markets with regards to failing countries (the PIIGS), PMs, rising dollar, falling Euro, Fraudclosure, week-long monetizing action by the Fed and what else am I forgetting? All these are potential trigger points we've been discussing forEVAR. First one to the exit -wins.
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Old 11-16-2010, 12:49 PM   #2
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looking at the charts this am, it appears there might be a panic unfolding...

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Old 11-16-2010, 12:51 PM   #3
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Screw it. Let's just get it over with.
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Old 11-16-2010, 01:05 PM   #4
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Screw it. Let's just get it over with.
Cry "Havoc!" and let slip the dogs of war,
That this foul deed shall smell above the earth
With carrion men, groaning for burial.
Julius Caesar Act 3, scene 1, 270–275

Dow down, gold down, silver down, US $ up.

It looks like everyone is running back to the safety of the good old USA.

"The dollar is going to go Tango Uniform!"

Not likely.
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Old 11-16-2010, 02:25 PM   #5
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Uniform!
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Old 11-18-2010, 07:30 PM   #6
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http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010...-that-ruskies/
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Old 11-18-2010, 07:42 PM   #7
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In an April 2010 military parade, Iran tried to fool the world into thinking it had the missiles by welding together a bunch of 55 gallon oil drums and strapping them to a truck.
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Old 12-20-2010, 01:09 PM   #8
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3:54 am so I do not want to say much .

I like others have been expecting the Fed to pump markets around
Xmas and New Years but even so there are signs that big money is
running for the exits .

Regardless of how much money or BS the Fed generates I cannot help
feeling markets are becoming too spooked for this Ponzi scheme to last
more than 2 or 3 months in its current form ( possibly less ) .
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Old 12-20-2010, 01:35 PM   #9
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As for the US, I am watching for more signs the dollar is losing its reserve currency status. Then I know the end is nigh... But I still believe the US has some time.
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Old 12-20-2010, 01:37 PM   #10
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another confirmed hindy last week, too, and not much press about this one...

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Old 12-20-2010, 02:26 PM   #11
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I know it isnt the Market but have you looked around the mall lately? I have... hell even wallmart... I usually will NOT go to wallmart except in the middle of the night during the month of dec because it is HELL.... NOT this month I can get parking and I can walk thru the aisles....

ppl are freaking out over $ and no one is buying much
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Old 12-21-2010, 07:50 PM   #12
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Wave of Muni Defaults to Spur Layoffs, Social Unrest: Whitney

Apparently, Meredith Whitney was on 60 Minutes this past Sunday night and made some interesting predictions that many state and local governments would default causing civil unrest (sounds like something Gerald Celente would say). I am going to try and find the link to that interview...
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Old 12-21-2010, 08:51 PM   #13
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In the 60 Minutes interview, Whitney says she and her staff have spent the last two years doing the research and crunching the numbers. She says the fiscal situations of many state and local governments appear dire, especially after the stimulus money runs out in the spring of next year.

State Budgets: Day of Reckoning - 60 Minutes
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Old 12-21-2010, 08:53 PM   #14
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TAE has it along with a very interesting bit by Ilargi.

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.co...states-of.html
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Old 12-21-2010, 11:11 PM   #15
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Those don't look like 55 gallon drums to me.
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Old 12-22-2010, 12:03 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by Greta View Post
In the 60 Minutes interview, Whitney says she and her staff have spent the last two years doing the research and crunching the numbers. She says the fiscal situations of many state and local governments appear dire, especially after the stimulus money runs out in the spring of next year.

State Budgets: Day of Reckoning - 60 Minutes
Woo..,

The pundits on CNBC ripped that theory to shreds today.., No sir, they weren't havin any of it.

IMO, the market hitting major highs with little volume portends a possible breakout.
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Old 12-22-2010, 12:19 AM   #17
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Huh. What did the pundits say?

As far as I can see, Ms. Whitney is dead on.
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Old 12-22-2010, 12:30 AM   #18
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Arrow

It is amazing to me how they keep it all going. It should have collapsed a long time ago. I know it cannot go on forever, but they keep managing to kick that can another few feet down the road every time it looks like disaster is a certainty. It will be fascinating to see how long that continues.
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Old 12-22-2010, 10:05 AM   #19
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The pundits on CNBC ripped that theory to shreds today.., No sir, they weren't havin any of it.
Well, that is to be expected. However, I was just reading Meredith Whitney's credentials on Bloomberg. So whether they agree or not, she is apparently a highly respected person now, since the financial crisis. Bloomberg refers to her as "a woman who moves markets".
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Old 12-22-2010, 12:31 PM   #20
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IMO, the market hitting major highs with little volume portends a possible breakout.
A breakout to the up or down side? Without the volume, there's no conviction. As has been discussed here as well as many other places, the light volume is indicative of the sentiment that the market is manipulated. Hence, the 30+ consecutive weekly outflows of money from the equities markets as well as the grossly disproportionate ratio of insider selling versus buying of stocks. Another recent sign that things aren't all rosy is the beginning of net outflows from bonds. Beware the propaganda machine.
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Old 12-22-2010, 01:13 PM   #21
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Huh. What did the pundits say?

As far as I can see, Ms. Whitney is dead on.
CNBC is ripping her a new one today..,

Just tune in. Essentially they're saying she's full of it. There's no muni crisis in the 100s of billions in the making.

That's not to say the muni market is sound at all. CNBC did claim that because she's an "analyst" her primary job is to get her message heard, so she can impress her following..,
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Old 12-22-2010, 01:30 PM   #22
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Yeah, I'm home for a change, and CNBC is running in the background, as usual.

Just watched an interview with one of the muni bond fund guys. Here was his chief argument: as a percentage of GDP, state deficits are much lower than those of, say Greece (150%), or even the US (50%). Illinois is the worst, at 16%. No big deal.

Wha? News flash: cities and states have maxed out their taxing powers, and they can't print money. (Neither can the Greeks, but that's another story.)

Government bonds are going to be a graveyard for capital for the next decade, and munis are going to be buried the deepest of all. Madness.
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Old 12-22-2010, 06:01 PM   #23
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A breakout to the up or down side? Without the volume, there's no conviction. As has been discussed here as well as many other places, the light volume is indicative of the sentiment that the market is manipulated. Hence, the 30+ consecutive weekly outflows of money from the equities markets as well as the grossly disproportionate ratio of insider selling versus buying of stocks. Another recent sign that things aren't all rosy is the beginning of net outflows from bonds. Beware the propaganda machine.
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Originally Posted by Auburn Boy View Post
CNBC is ripping her a new one today..,

Just tune in. Essentially they're saying she's full of it. There's no muni crisis in the 100s of billions in the making.

That's not to say the muni market is sound at all. CNBC did claim that because she's an "analyst" her primary job is to get her message heard, so she can impress her following..,
Quote:
Originally Posted by dharma View Post
Yeah, I'm home for a change, and CNBC is running in the background, as usual.

Just watched an interview with one of the muni bond fund guys. Here was his chief argument: as a percentage of GDP, state deficits are much lower than those of, say Greece (150%), or even the US (50%). Illinois is the worst, at 16%. No big deal.

Wha? News flash: cities and states have maxed out their taxing powers, and they can't print money. (Neither can the Greeks, but that's another story.)

Government bonds are going to be a graveyard for capital for the next decade, and munis are going to be buried the deepest of all. Madness.
More on all this can be found here (pretty quick read).
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Old 12-23-2010, 02:22 PM   #24
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In the 60 Minutes interview, Whitney says she and her staff have spent the last two years doing the research and crunching the numbers. She says the fiscal situations of many state and local governments appear dire, especially after the stimulus money runs out in the spring of next year.

State Budgets: Day of Reckoning - 60 Minutes


Thank you for the link.

Frightening....
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Old 12-23-2010, 07:20 PM   #25
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When you combine the fact that local governments are borrowed up to their eyebrows with the fact that some states have woefully underfunded their employee's pension plans AND the economic "?recovery?" being very uneven so that tax revenues are down in most places, yes there is trouble in River City.

Not every type of bond is at risk but there is considerable risk in some very heavy bond issuing states. California, Illinois, New York and Texas all come to mind (Texas's public employee pension system as I recall is one of the worst funded in the entire US). Here in the old rust belt where I live we don't have the pension plan overhang issue, it is fairly well funded though of course the funds have taken a market hit .. so all we have is declining tax revenues to deal with, but that is going to cost many thousands of people their jobs in 2011.
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