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Old 02-27-2009, 08:32 PM   #26
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http://www.markit.com/information/pr...y/indices.html
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Old 03-02-2009, 09:27 AM   #27
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March trend
------------
["up" means increased perceived risk, so that's bad]

02.March 2009
European Markit iTraxx at 1115bp(+35)
main Europe index at 189.2bp(+8.82)
US credit derivatives markets all up
Japan closed at 480.4bp (-19.24bp)

----------------------
03.March
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009...s-record-high/

Markit iTraxx Crossover : 1123
iTraxx Europe : 193bp.
Axa:211(+28)
Aviva:295(+34)
Aegon:436(+42)

------------------------------
04.March 2009
European banks up >5%
iTraxx Europe = 192.8bp(-1.8)
Crossover 1135.1bp(-5.3)
Aviva = 302.5
Bertelsmann=328.3

--------------------------------

well, prices are here:
http://www.markit.com/markit.jsp?jsppage=indices.jsp

------------------------------

SEC grants CME Group and CMDX special
exemption to clear and trade credit default swaps
http://cmegroup.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=2824

> credit default swaps open to all qualified commercial market participants

will the common folks be able to trade CDSs to protect their credits,
investments ? People may go to banks and demand their CDSs
to insure the assets....
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Old 03-16-2009, 07:55 AM   #28
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http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009...conomy-stupid/


US CDS above 100bps

> US CDS is a stupid idea anyway since if America were to default,
> it’s unlikely that CDS will be honoured in the post-apocalyptic
> financial climate




US-credit default swaps :



http://www.acredittrader.com/?p=81


30.03.2009:
USA:59.9
China:161.9
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Old 03-16-2009, 09:01 AM   #29
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what I'm wondering....

are all those countries actually _planning_ to default earlier or later ?

Either by not paying back their debt or by devaluating their currency
(=inflation) so the backpaid money would be almost worthless ?

I do not see that some country is planning to pay back
all its debt without taking new debt.

Is there any country without debt ?

So, the question is only _when_ will they "default" ...



I can see the next round of protection-derivatives being coupled
to the consumer price index, so to avoid devaluation of currency.

They might try to forbid the trading of those, because it's bad for
their plan to default.

People might find more reliable ways to
invest and to trade and to borrow and to pay for goods and credits
without directly using the currency of the country...


is this where we are going ?
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Old 03-17-2009, 06:26 AM   #30
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VIX breaks with CDX .
16 March 2009

Quote:
The CBOE Volatility Index .VIX, the implied volatility measure of the S&P
500 .SPX, typically tracks HY CDX (high yield credit default swap basket)
spreads. But a strong dislocation has occurred in early 2009, said Goldman
Sachs derivative strategists in a note. HY 5-year OTR (on-the-run) CDX spreads
are up 442 basis points year-to-date while the VIX is up two volatility points.
The VIX landed at 42.36 last Friday while HY CDX closed at 1528. They said the
average VIX level with spreads above 1000 has been 53, 11 volatility points
above current levels. "The credit market is pricing much higher risk than the
S&P 500 options market," the note said. Goldman's cross asset VIX model also
suggests a VIX level between 41 and 51. The model predicts weekly changes in
VIX vs. key cross asset factors in equities, credit, FX and commodities. "With
the VIX at 42.4 as of last Friday's close, the risk reward favors owning S&P
500 volatility in our view," Goldman said.

Reuters Messaging: [email protected]

http://uk.reuters.com/article/hotSto...51146820090316
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Old 03-17-2009, 07:28 AM   #31
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HY CDX presumably is the first chart here:
http://www.markit.com/information/pr...dx/curves.html

and VIX seems to be this:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EV...=on&z=m&q=l&c=

compare also with inflation protected bonds, e.g.:
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=... E:WIW&ntsp=0
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Old 03-17-2009, 12:28 PM   #32
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Quote:
are all those countries actually _planning_ to default earlier or later ?

Either by not paying back their debt or by devaluating their currency
(=inflation) so the backpaid money would be almost worthless ?
Will the USA will ever run out of USA dollars? No.
So I wonder, why is there a CDS on US debt thats payable in USD$ ?
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Old 03-18-2009, 04:13 AM   #33
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not all US-debt is in US-dollars. In fact debt in foreign currency
might become more common as credibility reduces.

Inflation has other negative effects, so it's usually preferrable to
reorganize debt than to print more money.
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Old 04-18-2009, 07:04 AM   #34
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markit is restructuring the indices following the Bowater bankruptcy



also all the indices maybe updated weekly ? (or monthly...let's see)
http://www.markit.com/markit.jsp?jsppage=indices.jsp


Code:
27.March 2009,03.Apr. , 09.Apr.,16.Apr.,  name
------------------------------------
1476,1398,1283,----, CDX.NA.HY
1481,1202,1061,1059, CDX.NA.HY.B
0708,0565,0535,0521, CDX.NA.HY.BB
0590,0553,0533,0495, CDX.EM
0590,0561,0552,0510, CDX.EM.DIVERSIFIED
0183,0189,0182,0178, CDX.NA.IG
0455,0460,0448,0406, CDX.NA.IG.HVOL
0569,0568,0554,0532, CDX.NA.XO
0165,0167,0156,0148, iTraxx Europe
0358,0348,0313,0285, iTraxx Europe HiVol
0911,0922,0877,0823, iTraxx Europe Crossover
0387,0366,0297,0305, iTraxx Japan
0339,0342,0343,0307, iTraxx Australia
0333,0324,0322,0297, iTraxx Asia ex-Japan
1283,1225,----,----, iTraxx Asia ex-Japan HY
1913,1862,1747,1219, LCDX.NA
---------------------
0000,-4.1%,-5.7%,-5.3%
3rd week that CDSs are ~5% better in average per week
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Old 01-02-2010, 05:25 PM   #35
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Old 01-20-2010, 04:15 PM   #36
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http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2010/...ncy-Coface.jpg

http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2010/...its-Coface.jpg
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Old 01-21-2010, 08:46 AM   #37
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aamDUWwjCg6U

The euro fell to its weakest level in almost six months against the dollar after a report said the European Union was preparing a loan for Greece, which Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou denied.

‎1 hour ago‎
Credit-default swaps insuring against losses on Greek government debt for five years surged to an all-time high of 353.5 today, according to CMA DataVision ...

‎4 hours ago‎
Greek credit default swaps, a gauge of possible debt default, spiked to a new record of 347bp. The CDS of Spain and Portugal moved to their highest points ...


---------edit 14:20 UTC-------
‎1 hour ago‎
Credit-default swaps on Greek government debt fell 2 basis points to 348, according to CMA DataVision prices, after climbing to a record 353.5 earlier

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Greek 10-year bonds rose, reducing the risk premium on holding the debt from the highest since the euro’s debut, after Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said a rescue package to cut the budget deficit won’t be needed.
The extra yield, or spread, investors demand to hold the Greek securities instead of benchmark German bunds widened to more than 301 basis points today, the most since 1999, before falling to 279 basis points. The government isn’t expecting outside help to shore up its finances, Papaconstantinou said.
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Old 03-23-2010, 04:41 AM   #38
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22.March 2010
------------------------
country
rating
interst rate 2 years in %
interest rate 5 years in %
interest rate 10 years in %
difference to Germany in %
-----------------------------------------
Germany,AAA,0.989,2.118,3.089,0.000
Finland, AAA,-,2.044,3.346,0.257
Netherlands,AAA,0.900,2.237,3.353,0.264
France,AAA,1.145,2.266,3.410,0.321
Austria,AAA,-,2.482,3.461,0.372
Belgium,AA+,1.064,2.739,3.604,0.515
Spain,AA+,1.424,2.851,3.869,0.780
Italy,A+,1.385,2.742,3.934,0.845
Portugal,A+,1.857,3.411,4.319,1.230
Ireland,AA,1.717,-,4.557,1.468
Greece,BBB+,5.179,5.962,6.464,3.375

in British pounds:
UK,AAA,1.198,2.774,3.927,0.838

in US-dollars:
USA,AAA,0.973,2.419,3.689,0.600
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Old 04-07-2010, 06:00 AM   #39
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2010/04/07
Credit-swaps on Greece's government debt fell 4 basis points to 388.5, after surging 50 basis points yesterday to the highest level in six weeks


iTraxx Crossover 50 = 419(+2)
iTraxx Europe 125 = 77.25(+0.5)
iTraxx Financial 25 = 91(+0.5)
subordinated 148.5(+1.5)
CDX North America Investment Grade Series 14 = 84.1(+1.1)


several Europe:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...5-year_CDS.png

USA,UK:
http://nickgogerty.typepad.com/.a/6a...4710970c-800wi
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Old 04-07-2010, 06:06 AM   #40
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Markit wird nach Ostern Kennzahlen zur Liquidität im Handel mit Kreditderivaten (Credit Default Swaps, CDS), Darlehen und besicherten Anleihen (Asset-Backed Securities, ABS) veröffentlichen.
Konkret wird Markit Geld-Brief-Spannen und die Zahl der Broker, die Kurse stellen, veröffentlichen. Daraus wird eine Liquiditätskennziffer von eins bis fünf errechnet. Die Ziffer "eins" signalisiert dabei eine hohe Liquidität. Ab April gehe es mit Statistiken zum CDS-Handel los. Darlehen und ABS-Papiere würden folgen, teilte Markit mit.

Gemeinsam mit Markit betreibt DTCC Markit Serv, ein Portal für das Glattstellen und Bestätigen von außerbörslich gehandelten Derivaten.
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Old 04-22-2010, 11:43 AM   #41
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Greece credit now worse than Iceland :
Belgium government withdraws (again)

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...5-year_CDS.png


Greece 5-year CDSs climbed to more than 600 after 486 yesterday

Euro below $1.33


-------------------edit Apr.26------------------
Credit-default swaps on Greece = 713 (+98.5)
Portugal =318 (+39)
Euro : 1.3333
---------------edit Apr.27----------------------------------
CDS Greece : 821
CDS Portugal : 365
Euro : 13236
-----------------------------------------------
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Old 04-28-2010, 07:49 AM   #42
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> Experts endorse adjustment of Credit default SwapsZEW inquiry with financial
> market expert (lifepr)
> Mannheim, 28.04.2010 - speculations with credit loss insurance, so-called Credit
> default Swaps (CD), stand in the suspicion, of Greece debt problem to have intensified….

LOL
I'd say "disclosed" instead of "intensified"

by the same logic they might claim that e.g. speculations with hurricane
insurance shares may have intensified the category of a hurricane or such

or betting on a football-game may change it's very result

or emission of mortality bonds may change the probability of a pandemic


I see this just as an attempt to try to keep the extend of the debt-crisis out of
the public attention.
CDS-prices let us follow this better than words of politicians.
CDS prices do show us, what people are actually willing to invest for their predictions
(-->unbiased)
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Old 04-28-2010, 01:34 PM   #43
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Thanks gsgs.
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Old 04-28-2010, 01:52 PM   #44
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Quote:
I see this just as an attempt to try to keep the extend of the debt-crisis out of
the public attention.
CDS-prices let us follow this better than words of politicians.
They're always looking for a whipping boy. Of course the fact that the Greek Gov't lied for years about the level of public debt has absolutely nothing to do with crisis...
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Old 04-28-2010, 09:26 PM   #45
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CDS Greece,Apr.28, 11:55(MEST?) :911 , Venez.:897,Argent.:853 (DataVision)
CDS Greece,Apr.28, 13:25 : 825
CDS Greece, afternoon(?) evening ? (time unclear,maybe even morning)) : 901
CDS Portugal,13:25 : 370
CDS Greece "afternoon" : 675 (Markit)


fluctuations depending on statements about credits from the EU



where to get intraday charts of Greece CDS ?


chart since Oct.2009:

http://www.ftd.de/finanzen/maerkte/:.../50099692.html


--------------------------------
Apr.30,afternoon,Greece: 695(+10) Markit
Apr.30,morning,Greece: 600
Apr.30,Portugal,295(-9)
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Old 05-06-2010, 04:30 PM   #46
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2010,May,06,
Western Europe: 167 (+20)
Greece 880
Portugal 460
Spain 277
Italy 232

2010,May,07,09:40 UTC
Euro: 127.30
http://waehrungen.onvista.de/snapsho...ERIOD=0#chart1

http://www.cmavision.com/market-data

Friday, 7 May 2010 — 08:30

Greece: 1008(+55)
Portual: 502(+35)
Ukraine: 616(+35)
Latvia: 408(+25)
Ireland:308(+23)

USA:42.81(+3.67)
Austria:82.20(+6.99)
Poland:168.35(+11.21)
Denmark:59.81(+9.49)
Sweden:50.76(+7.03)
Netherlands:60.78(+7.97)
Ireland:308.47(+36.05)
France:89.51(+8.89)

Itraxx Europe(S.13):122.96
iTraxx Europe Crossover(S.13):549.69

--------------------------------------

May,07,10:00 UTC

telefone conference of the G7 , EZB and big banks
because of market panics

interest in 2year Greece loans is 20.39% (+1.95)

Itraxx Financial 25: 223(+40)

--------------------------------------

2010,May,07,12:35 UTC
http://www.markit.com/en/
iTraxx Europe : 131(+11)
crossover: 592(+51)

---------------------------------------------
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Old 05-12-2010, 06:39 AM   #47
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As calculated by CMA group on 12 May 2010
based on 5 yr CDS spread


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All paper is a short position on gold . “Gold is money. Everything else is credit.”

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Old 05-12-2010, 06:43 AM   #48
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USA + UK banks at risk ... 2010 May 12 , data from CMA group .


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Old 05-13-2010, 02:54 AM   #49
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a 750B euro emergency fund has been established.

it is not clear whether that money will be used to directly
buy CDSs so to manipulate the prices ?!


May,12:
Greece: 484 (-27)
Portugal: 243(-182)
Spain: 155(-84)
Euro: 127.40 (after rising to over 130)
Itraxx SovX Western Europe: 104(-15)
Itraxx Senior Financials: 127(-11)

Ukraine: 551
Latvia: 331
California: 254
Czech: 76
Italy: 125
Bulgaria: 207
Norway: 20
iTrax Europe: 100
Crossover: 484
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Old 05-18-2010, 05:18 PM   #50
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Germany forbids trading of (uncovered) CDSs !

Verboten wurden zudem sogenannte ungedeckte Credit Default Swaps (CDS). Die Verbote gelten bis Ende März nächsten Jahres und würden laufend überprüft, erklärte die BaFin.

Euro below 122 against Dollar - not that the Dollar were so strong...



but Hedgefonds can just act from outide the EU, or not ?
So I assume the Markit index won't change

http://www.markit.com/en/

iTraxx Europe 111.1 , 19:22
iTraxx Crossover 532 , 19:22


http://www.cmavision.com/market-data
Germany : 44.61 (-4.40)
Thailand : 145.23 (-12.06)
Greece : 612
Ukraine : 591
California : 271
Latvia : 344
Portugal : 269
Spain : 181
Norway : 20.59
France : 71.58
Sweden : 34.96
China : 78.36
Japan : 83.27


---------------------------

e.g. I assume that China could just buy European CDSs in USA
or (still) even in France or England or Switzerland or such


-------------------------------------
accessed May,19,0:40 UTC , "Tuesday, 18 May 2010 — 23:30"
Germany:44.49
Greece:612
USA:38.66
Russia:161
Spain:180
iTraxxEurope:116.10
Markit CDX.NA.IG: 120.7

-------------------------------
CDX.NA.IG 119.4 07:50,19.May
CDX.NA.HY 95.2 07:50
iTraxx Europe 117.2 08:02
iTraxx Crossover 548 08:02
---------------------------------------
iTraxx Europe 119.8 08:31 (MEST?)
----------------------------------------
May,20,20:30, CMA-Datavision
Greece:726
Ukraine:650
Portugal:336
Latvia:368
Korea:148
Spain:210
Poland:160
CDX,NA:113.7 (124.7Markit)
iTraxxEu:121.3 (127.3Markit)
Crossover: 576 (604Markit)
Euro: 124.9
--------------------------------
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