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Old 05-18-2010, 06:22 PM   #51
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they say, it's because these trades could increase the down trend.

So forbidding them should be good for Euro and European CDSs ?!

But then, why did the Euro go down 2 cents and the iTraxx Europe
up ~10% upon the announcement ?

Trust in the Euro is going down, apparantly.
Trying to control the markets this way reminds us Germans
to the East-German-Mark which had one official
exchange rate and an inofficial one


how about the idea to forbid publishing of CDS-prices ? (lol)
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Old 05-19-2010, 06:19 AM   #52
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CDSs on European countries are falling (rating better) , but the
iTraxx Europe is up to 123

they said this was due to short-sellers having to buy back their positions
------------------------------------------------------
May,20,7:00 UTC : iTraxxEurope : 111(CMA-Datavision) , 117(Markit) , Euro=123.78
---------------------------------------------
May21;Korea:145;Portugal:336;China:93;NA:113.7/125.7;EU:121.3/127.3;Euro:125.9
-----------------------------
May,25; Euro : 122.0 , Korea:172,China:102,Greece:731,Iraq:499,Portugal:3 43,
NA:124.5(125.3),EU:120.5(132.1) Europe-Shares ~3% down
-------------------------------
27.May Greece:678,Ukraine:598,Portugal:321,Latvia:361,Chi na:81,NA:126(120),EU:123(119),Euro:122.6
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Jun1,Korea=145,Greece=724,Ukraine=616,Portugal=345 ,China=89,Japan=96,NA=119,EU=123,Euro=122.9
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Jun04,Hungary:371(+63) at 3:30 p.m. in London, 416 earlier
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index = 174.4
------------------------------------------------------------------
June,08,CMA:Norway=27.6,Greece=797,Ukraine=642,Por tugal=349,Latvia=402,Romania=396,Australia=58.3,
Denmark=48.2,USA=46.0,Italy=238,Germany=47.9,Lithu ania=301,Croatia=331,Bulgaria=362,Mexico=155,
Slovakia=110,Finland=36.8,Brazil=156,Belgium=136,
NA:130(131),EU:135(139),CO:623(630),Euro:119,
June,9,Markit: Germany=48.1 , SovXW.EU=166, Hungary=390
-------------------------------------------------------------------
June,12: BP down to 405 from 483 , California:292 , Germany:38.7 ,
Japan : 97 , Greece : 733, NA:126,EU:133,CU:604
--------------------------------------------------------
2010/06/29 - Venezuela:1264 , Greece:1088 , Argentina:944 , Ukraine:622 , ... , USA:39.1 ,
Iceland: 342 , Spain:266 , Romania:399 , Hungary:332 , NA:114,EU:126,Euro:123,Gold:1239
-------------------------------------------------------
2010/06/30: Greece=1006,Ukraine=627,Romania=411,Portugal=328,C zech=104,Germany=46.94,
Belgium=152,NA=122,EU=133,Euro=123
-------------------------------------------------------------------
2010/07/01:Greece:925,Argentina:970,Venezuela:1339,Pakista n:717,Spain:274,
Portugal:322,USA:39.14,Norway:25.58,Japan:96.80,NA :123,EU:129,Euro:123
---------------------------------------------------------------
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Old 06-09-2010, 03:11 AM   #53
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isn't it funny, how they are trying to keep these data secret ?
CMA-datavision and Markit seem to claim for some sort of "copyright"
on the data, but they spread it nevertheless. Just not in regularly ordered form
unless you subscribe and pay which I think is only for newspapers or institutions.
Of course, the newspapers then want to publish it ... but only within a text,
rarely do I see charts or complete lists.

And the governments (i.e.Germany) do forbid uncovered trading in these, condemning
"speculation" . Presumably they would prefer if we wouldn't talk about these CDS prices,
which allow us tracking of the debt-crisis.
Apparantly it worked until 2008 ... until the volume did increase a lot, then FannyMae,Lehmann ,
bailouts so the problems could no longer be kept secret.
Now they have "help-fonds" (EU:700B). What are they for ? Buying their own currency
or bonds or CDSs so to manipulate the prices ?

Publish these CDS-prices regularly, so to allow an open and fair tracking of the debt-problems.
Break the monopoly of CMA-datavision and Markit, allow open trade and quotes and charts
from the big stock-exchanges.
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Old 07-05-2010, 11:37 PM   #54
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2010/07/06 : France=86,UK=76,Greece=903,Pakistan=736,Ukraine=65 0,Illinois=361,
California=337,Romania=85,Poland=151,Korea=123,Aus tria=91,Italy=180,Spain=265,
Belgium=137,USA=38,Portugal=297,NA=123(fv=123),EU= 126(fv=134),Euro=125
----------------------------------------------------
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_qA8QmxrSIp...10GovtRisk.jpg

new CMA quarterly report
http://www.cmavision.com/news/view/c...t-for-q2-2010/

now only on registration, they refused my registration, maybe soeone else can try.

There could be some pressure or some measures from the country-governments and companies
to keep these data out of the public as good as possible
------------------------------------------------------

BP is approximately 500 , I couldn't find actual prices yet

----------------------------------------------------

OK, I found the CMA-Q2 data here:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/3928140/In...C2%AA-Trimeste
slow loading page for me

CMA , 2010/06/29

1296 Venezuela
967 Argentina
934 Greece
719 Pakistan
625 Ukraine
495 Dubai
477 Iraq
411 Romania
379 Latvia
357 Bulgaria
342 Hungary
330 Iceland
322 Croatia
318 Lebanon
310 Portugal
296 Domin.Rep.
283 Lithuania
267 Ireland
265 Spain
257 Vietnam
228 El Salvador
224 Kazakhstan
217 Egypt
194 Turkey
194 Russia
194 Guatemala
191 Costa Rica
190 Italy
185 Indonesia
178 Uruguay
178 Bahrain
175 Philippines
173 South Africa
154 Poland
147 Columbia
144 Belgium
138 Brazil
135 Thailand
135 Peru
135 Mexico
132 Panama
129 South Korea
125 Marocco
122 Israel
120 Tunisia
120 Estonia
113 Abu Dhabi
105 Chile
104 Malaysia
101 Czech
96 Japan
93 Slovakia
92 Qatar
91 China
90 France
90 Austria
88 Slovenia
76 UK
72 Saudi Arabia
70 New Zealand
60 Australia
57 Hong Kong
51 Netherlands
48 Switzerland
45 Germany
43 Sweden
40 Denmark
39 USA
35 Finland
25 Norway
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Old 07-06-2010, 01:21 AM   #55
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Quote:
1296 Venezuela
967 Argentina
934 Greece
Why is Venezuela and Argentina ahead of Greece?

Any guesses?
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Old 07-06-2010, 01:29 AM   #56
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no bailout
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Old 07-06-2010, 02:53 AM   #57
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ahhh.....got it.

Thanks
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Old 07-13-2010, 03:57 AM   #58
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CDS on 2010/06/29 , Dagong rating 2010/06/15 , Country
-------------------------------------------------------

correlation = 0.66
someone has the ratings of other rating agencies ?


Code:
 495,   ?,Dubai
 477,   ?,Iraq
 379,   ?,Latvia
 357,   ?,Bulgaria
 322,   ?,Croatia
 318,   ?,Lebanon
 296,   ?,Dominik.Rep.
 283,   ?,Lithuania
 267,   ?,Ireland
 228,   ?,El Salvador
 194,   ?,Guatemala
 191,   ?,Costa Rica
 178,   ?,Bahrain
 147,   ?,Columbia
 135,   ?,Peru
 132,   ?,Panama
 125,   ?,Marocco
 120,   ?,Tunisia
 105,   ?,Abu Dhabi
 101,   ?,Czech
  93,   ?,Slovakia
  92,   ?,Qatar
  90,   ?,Austria
  88,   ?,Slovenia
  35,   ?,Finland
  57,   ?,Hong Kong
  91,  2 ,China
  40,  2 ,Denmark
   ?,  2 ,Luxembourg
  25,  2 ,Norway
   ?,  2 ,Singapore
  48,  2 ,Switzerland
  60,  6 ,Australia
  70,  6 ,New Zealand
   ?,  6 ,Canada
  45,  6 ,Germany
  51,  6 ,Netherlands
  96,  8 ,Japan
  72,  8 ,Saudi Arabia
  39,  9 ,United States
 129, 10 ,South Korea
  76, 11 ,Britain
  90, 11 ,France
 144, 12 ,Belgium
 105, 12 ,Chile
 120, 14 ,Estonia
 104, 14 ,Malaysia
 194, 14 ,Russia
 173, 14 ,South Africa
 265, 15 ,Spain
 138, 16 ,Brazil
 122, 16 ,Israel
 154, 16 ,Poland
 190, 17 ,Italy
 310, 17 ,Portugal
   ?, 18 ,India
 125, 18 ,Mexico
 135, 18 ,Thailand
   ?, 19 ,United Arab Emirates
 217, 20 ,Egypt
 224, 20 ,Kazakhstan
 185, 20 ,Indonesia
 342, 21 ,Hungary
   ?, 22 ,Nigeria
1296, 22 ,Venezuela
 934, 24 ,Greece
 411, 25 ,Romania
 330, 27 ,Iceland
 194, 26 ,Turkey
 257, 26 ,Vietnam
   ?, 28 ,Mongolia
 175, 28 ,Philippines
 967, 30 ,Argentina
 625, 32 ,Ukraine
 719, 33 ,Pakistan
   ?, 34 ,Ecuador
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Old 07-13-2010, 04:58 AM   #59
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gsgs, first column I guess is the CDS pricing, what is the second column ?
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Old 07-13-2010, 05:07 AM   #60
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2nd column is the rating from dagongcredit.com
see this thread:
http://thisbluemarble.com/showthread.php?t=28943
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Old 07-13-2010, 06:17 AM   #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gsgs View Post
2nd column is the rating from dagongcredit.com
see this thread:
http://thisbluemarble.com/showthread.php?t=28943
I don't understand these rating agencies. I guess they copy from one another without a clue. According to Dagoncredit Turkey has a worse rating than Greece. Turkey's 2010Q1 growth has been 11,7 %, Q2 growth has been 15,8%. Net growth YY has been 1,4%. Very good financial health and banking system compared not Greece but to whole EU ...
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Old 07-13-2010, 06:58 AM   #62
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China rating won't copy, what USA says ;-)

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.p...ade-2010-06-24
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/co...es/1022222.stm
http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/odemedenge/iiptable10.pdf
Turkey's overall foreign debt stock, including public and private sector debt, stood at $262.9 billion
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of..._external_debt

not so bad.
But Greece is EU, Turkey not (yet)
political problems
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Old 07-13-2010, 02:18 PM   #63
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Not being a part of EU is good for credit nowadays :P
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Old 07-13-2010, 04:05 PM   #64
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Arrow

China ratings are largely meaningless, as everyone knows they are purely politically driven instead of being an actual indicator of creditworthiness.
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Old 07-15-2010, 06:55 AM   #65
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They strive to “not be affected by ideology,”
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Old 07-15-2010, 06:56 AM   #66
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Code:
2010/07/15
--------------------
1213 Venezuela 
 813 Greece 
 882 Argentina
 575 Ukraine
 503 Pakistan
 484 Dubai
 427 Iraq
 315 Illinois
 327 Iceland
 363 Romania
 162 Indonesia
 111 Korea,Rep. 
 144 South Africa
  31 Finland
  85 Japan
 157 Philippines
 120 Peru
 140 Poland
  38 Sweden
  40 Germany
 292 Portugal
 114 Belgium
 248 Ireland
  38 Denmark
  81 China
 224 Spain
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Old 07-15-2010, 09:51 PM   #67
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gsgs:
Quote:
"They strive to “not be affected by ideology,”"
Propaganda. They do no such thing.
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Old 07-20-2010, 01:32 AM   #68
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2010/07/20
Venezuela 1224,Greece 804,Argentina 908,Ukraine 552,Pakistan 498,Dubai 486,
Iraq 457,Romania 377,Hungary 367,Bulgaria 339,Iceland 331,Croatia 312,Illinois 310,
Ireland 263,Spain 211,EU 117, Euro 130,oil 77,gold 1183, Hungarian Forint 34(from 36)
---------------------------------
2010/07/25:
Venezuela=1145,Argentina=845,Greece=769,Hungary=34 2,Illinois=298
Russia=166,USA=36,NA=109,EU=114,Euro=129
-------------------------------------
2010/08/18
Venezuela:1204,Greece:841,Argentina:818,Pakistan:5 75,Ukraine:519,Iraq:464,Dubai:460,
Illinois:300,Iceland:320,California:285,Germany:43 ,Ireland:270,Japan:67,Sweden:37,Finland:28,
Norway:24,France:70,Australia:47,New Zealand:57,Thailand:114,China:80,Korea:109,
Romania:331,Panama:100,NA:107,EU:109,Euro:129,oil: 75,gold:1224
----------------------------------------
2010/09/05:
Venezuela:1251,Greece:859,Argentina:854,Pakistan:8 30,Ukraine:533,Dubai:462,Iraq:430,
Ireland:337,Romania:375,Ireland:337,Portugal:291,I taly:188,France:70,Norway:23,Indonesia:154
NA:106,EU:108,Euro:129,oil:76,gold:1250
-----------------------------------
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Old 09-30-2010, 03:18 AM   #69
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reduced info now at CMA

someone tried to register ?

http://www.cmavision.com/site/registration/

failed for me.


Somehow the data is available - but then it's not ?!?
An the availability details themselves seem to be somehow confidential,secret.

Hopefully there will be other companies to provide the info.


can such data be copyrighted ?
the values that fondmanagers and traders are willing
to pay/receive for country-CDS-contracts ?


markit doesn't load for me today:
http://www.cmavision.com/site/registration/

TBM loads slowly (still the black page for some seconds since the
last change - today ~double as long black delay as usual for me)

----------------------------------------------

http://www.ftd.de/finanzen/maerkte/a.../50176048.html

(loads slowly, popups)

Portugal: 465
Spain : unchanged vs. yesterday

http://www.faz.net/s/Rub09A305833E12...on ~SMed.html

Anglo Irish kostet bis zu 34 Mrd. Euro

10-year government Euro-bonds yield:
-----------------------------------------------------
Greece:10.7%
Portugal: 6.56%
Ireland: 6.81%
Spain: 4.22%
Italy:3.94%

CDS
--------
Portugal:473
Spain:230
Greece:804
--------------------------------------------



Markit - NA:107 , EU : 111 , CO:510

http://www.markit.com/assets/en/docs...vers290910.pdf

2010/09/30:
Ireland:468,Portugal:437,Spain:228,Italy:197,Brazi l:116,USA:47,Japan:62,Germany:37,
UK:65,France:79,Anglo Irish Bank:887,BP PLC:165,

http://www.markit.com/en/about/news/.../cds/cds.page?

-------------------------------------------------
http://www.markit.com/assets/en/docs...vers300910.pdf
2010/09/39 , slowly loading
Portugal:410,Hungary 327,Ireland 460,Romania 359,Peru 121,USA 49,Japan 62,Germany 38,
UK 65,France 79,Italy 195,
-----------------------------------------------
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Old 09-30-2010, 06:32 PM   #70
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very interesting gsgs , thank-you for that .

Greece:10.7%

Wow! is my only comment .
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Old 10-01-2010, 11:17 AM   #71
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$615T ? is there so much money on earth ?



http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6900QP20101001
is trying to strike a tricky balance between opening
up the opaque $615 trillion OTC swaps market without exposing clearinghouses,
exchanges and swap execution facilities to undue risk.
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Old 10-01-2010, 12:45 PM   #72
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what are the S&P and Moody's ratings for these countries ?
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Old 10-01-2010, 01:27 PM   #73
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gsgs View Post
$615T ? is there so much money on earth ?



http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6900QP20101001
is trying to strike a tricky balance between opening
up the opaque $615 trillion OTC swaps market without exposing clearinghouses,
exchanges and swap execution facilities to undue risk.
I doubt it. Not liquid. Not even in any form that can become liquid easily. All the mines, all the oil, all the __________ (pick anything) and I think it's till short of 615T

It's like making bets with money you don't have, can't get and won't ever get....and having those on the other side of the bet agree to make the bet.

Heck, I bet you the mineral rights to pluto that the sun won't rise tomorrow....

go on, take the bet....ain't like I'm really losing or you are really winning.
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Old 10-05-2010, 01:27 AM   #74
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Standard & Poors :
http://www.standardandpoors.com/rati...=1245214509131

Moody's:
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar.../ctryprem.html
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Old 12-10-2010, 12:45 PM   #75
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2010/09/05:
Venezuela:1251,Greece:859,Argentina:854,Pakistan:8 30,Ukraine:533,Dubai:462,Iraq:430,
Ireland:337,Romania:375,Portugal:291,I taly:188,France:70,Norway:23,Indonesia:154
NA:106,EU:108,Euro:129,oil:76,gold:1250

2010/12/09 (2010/09/30)
Ireland:560(468),Italy:220(197),Spain:336(228),Por tugal:470(437)
EU:108(111),CO:458(510),NA:88(107),Euro:132,Fin:33 7,oil:89,gold:1400

2010/12/24
Norway:22.7,UK:73.8,Italy:235,NL:62.5,DB:103,CBK:1 46,Latvia:266,France:107,Portugal:493
NA:86,EU:105,CO:439,Euro:131,oil:92,gold:1385,Dow: 11573
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