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Old 03-31-2013, 02:21 PM   #1
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Default Two die in China from bird flu strain not previously seen in humans-Xinhua (H7N9)

Two die in China from bird flu strain not previously seen in humans-Xinhua

(Reuters) - Two people in Shanghai, one of China's largest cities, died this month after contracting a strain of avian influenza that had never been passed to humans before, the official Xinhua News Agency reported on Sunday.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...0CN02720130331

Last edited by CanadaSue; 01-28-2014 at 02:45 PM.
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Old 03-31-2013, 02:35 PM   #2
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H7N9 - an 87 & 27 year old man both dead. AS woman of unmentioned age also ill & in ciritical. 88 traced contacts - nothing among them.

To watch but until I read about any association between the victims, crimcumstances, etc... I'm goiong to hope it's simply one of those unfortunate & periodic jumps to people that go nowhere & aren't or are rarely repeated.
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Old 03-31-2013, 03:27 PM   #3
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And a woman in Anhui in critical condition too:
http://www.thestar.com/news/world/20... n9_virus.html

So it's a rather widespread periodic jump.
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Old 03-31-2013, 06:06 PM   #4
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Crap - I missed she was from Anhui.
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Old 03-31-2013, 08:59 PM   #5
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Crap - I missed she was from Anhui.
Why did you say that Sue, is Anhui significant for some reason?
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Old 03-31-2013, 09:14 PM   #6
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Because it's NOT in Shanghai. It means there's a possibility, (unless the strain came from one bird/flock that was separated), that this bird to human jump mutation may be well & truly out there &... learning.
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Old 03-31-2013, 09:29 PM   #7
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"Crap"....... there have been deaths in my block of flats in the last two weeks also.
Dont know and hope there is no conection..... but read the link and the cause of death in the link below.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/prisoners-...401-2h2bh.html

---------- Post added at 12:29 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:25 PM ----------

Quote:
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"Crap"....... there have been deaths in my block of flats in the last two weeks also.
Dont know and hope there is no conection..... but read the link and the cause of death in the link below.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/prisoners-...401-2h2bh.html
Oh there is more but four days ago it didnt seem important

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-2...tbreak/4598788
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Old 03-31-2013, 09:36 PM   #8
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Hang on, let me read these...

---------- Post added at 09:36 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:33 PM ----------

Seasona-wise, that's a bit off in the case of the nursing home - a little off but not unusually so... yet.

The prisoners: 'cardiac arrest, respiratory arrest' - of course. They stopped breathing & their hearts stopped beating. They died. I wouldn't hang anything on that without more detail.
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Old 04-01-2013, 06:52 AM   #9
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If humans can catch it so can pigs .

Just sayn .


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Old 04-01-2013, 08:25 AM   #10
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http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...03-31-07-45-16

AP take on this.

This sequence of events reminds me of the early days of H5N1: A large animal dieoff, China, Arguments on transmissibility, possible H2H inside a family...... and on and on and on.

I wonder how often this sequence happens, and when will it catch.

I have that itchy feeling I might be on FC a lot over the next week or two?!

---------- Post added at 08:25 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:24 AM ----------

I have not seen or heard of a necropsy on the pigs.... Anybody out there heard anything?
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Old 04-01-2013, 08:45 AM   #11
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Gonna be a lot of twitchy people for a time... sometimes I think not knowing where something is heading is worse than definitive answers...
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Old 04-01-2013, 09:20 AM   #12
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It raises the possibilty of an absolute worst-case scenario outbreak. The fatality rate is unknown but likely to be very high, as 2 of the 3 known victims have died. And there are no vaccines against H7N9 anywhere in the world. And the human population has not been exposed to influenza viruses of H7 or N9 antigenicity in the past, and thus humanity has no innate immunity.
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Old 04-01-2013, 09:42 AM   #13
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Too early to say even that, Dietrich. It may have been floating around for some time as a mild 'cold' type entity... or yeah, may be bursting out in full fledged ugliness.

You can bet the WHO, etc. flu teams are all over it.
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Old 04-01-2013, 10:28 AM   #14
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Quote:
The fatality rate is unknown but likely to be very high, as 2 of the 3 known victims have died.
The CFR is an artefact. Mild cases don't get reported/ don't get attention so we get an CFR from people ending up in the IC of hospitals which makes it artificially high.

The two men in Shanghai weren't related and Anhui is a bit further of the coast:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anhui

This means it has some geographic spread in some species. Could be chicken, ducks or pigs.

There's no reason yet to think it will take of quicker then H5N1 (thee 88 or so contacts were clear).
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Old 04-01-2013, 10:56 AM   #15
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H1 - Swine
H5 - Avian
H7 - ?
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Old 04-01-2013, 11:01 AM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kassy View Post
There's no reason yet to think it will take of quicker then H5N1 (thee 88 or so contacts were clear).
Well, the one reason to think it may take off quickly is the simultaneous announcement of cases several hundred miles apart.

It's equivalent to the CDC announcing 2 cases in Los Angeles, and 1 case in San Franciso. Doesn't "prove" H2H transmission, but certainly is eye-brow raising.
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Old 04-01-2013, 11:04 AM   #17
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Avian strain.
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Old 04-01-2013, 03:18 PM   #18
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Widespread Speculation in China that h7n9 arose from 11k Pigs Dumped in River
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...vian-flu-.html
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Old 04-01-2013, 03:29 PM   #19
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I was beginning to wonder about that Dietrich... did they not test for flu?
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Old 04-01-2013, 03:45 PM   #20
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I can't tell. The chinese authorities say (now) that there is "no connection" between flu and the Shanghai river pig dump, which suggests they did some testing. But, according to this article, there were some earlier initial unofficial comments by chinese authorities saying they didn't know if there was a connection.

One would think that if the chinese tested a large sample of the river pigs and all tested neg, then the chinese would just say so. But ya never know with them.
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Old 04-01-2013, 04:17 PM   #21
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I just spent some time checking through back issues of ProMed mail dealing with this. No specific mention of flu testing.
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Old 04-01-2013, 06:02 PM   #22
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And the human population has not been exposed to influenza viruses of H7 or N9 antigenicity in the past, and thus humanity has no innate immunity.
Oh, that's not good,

Thanks for reminding us of that little gem.
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Old 04-01-2013, 06:15 PM   #23
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ProMed stated there is no vaccine - human or poultry for H7N9.
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Old 04-02-2013, 08:49 AM   #24
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Chinese have released sequences to GISAID for all three of the 1st known cases. (This means the Chinese are being more transparent)

All three cases have PB2 E627K (which is not good) (grows at 33 C).

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/03...7N9_E627K.html

---------- Post added at 08:49 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:45 AM ----------

Has 15 BP deletion in N9 (human adaptation)

The only prior fatal H7 case was the "Netherlands" Vet.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04...nghai_H2H.html
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Old 04-02-2013, 09:17 AM   #25
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1) 87M(Li),Dead-pneumonia-respiratory failure, Shanghai, Father of #2,3
2) 55M(Li),Dead-multiple-organ failure(Pneum), Shanghai, Son of #1
3) 69M(Li),Recovered(Pneum),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Shanghai, Son of #1
4) 35F,,,,,,Critical,Chuzhou City (Anui),
5) 45W,,,,,Int. Care,Nanjing-Chuzhou City (Anui),

Local media rumors-5 more cases?

1) Onset 2/19
2) Onset Before 2/19
3) Onset Before 2/19
4)
5) Onset "March"

All info derived from Niman sources and comments

5) possibly admitted to hospital on 3/24

Last edited by andy; 04-02-2013 at 10:08 AM.
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