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Old 04-03-2013, 09:30 AM   #51
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Thanx - just caught that one the news & was coming to find a link to post.

I keep reassuring myself that China has a population of 1.3+ billion & we're talking a mere 9 known cases so far...
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Old 04-03-2013, 09:37 AM   #52
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Thanx - just caught that one the news & was coming to find a link to post.

I keep reassuring myself that China has a population of 1.3+ billion & we're talking a mere 9 known cases so far...
Agreed. And there have been many false alarms before with H5N1, with minor outbreaks in China, Vietnam, elsewhere, that just died out.

BUT, the thing I keep coming back to here is the extreme geographic dispersion. It now appears that they have confirmed 9 cases in 9 different cities. Combine that with WHO Tokyo director's statement today that the virus may be asymptomatic in poultry and pigs => likely h7n9 is fully endemic in chickens and/or pigs throughout eastern china.

So, at a minimum, the food supply is infected with a dangerous virus. That's a disaster already.

Hopefully that's all. But the WHO director in Tokyo did speculate that h7n9 is now at least "partially adapted" to human receptors:
http://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaki...l.asp?id=34300
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Old 04-03-2013, 10:40 AM   #53
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There is a reason I always start my PlagueInc infections in China...massive population, squalor, lots of areas with people living in dirty close contact with domestic animals, indifference to the general welfare of the population, little concern for polution, government cover-ups, etc. It's like a pandemic creation soup. Anyway, sorry for the drift.
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Old 04-03-2013, 10:40 AM   #54
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Some interesting comments from European CDC:
"China CDC posted an announcement on its website (31 March) and lodged the genetic information on the publicly accessible GISAID website. It identified genes from both A(H7N9) and A(H9N2) viruses, thus indicating a novel reassortant avian influenza A virus. No similar viruses have been seen before and they differ genetically from A(H7) and A(H9) viruses that have been detected in Europe and elsewhere worldwide. This is the first time that human infection with influenza A(H7N9) virus has been identified. It is also the first time that human infection with a low pathogenic avian influenza A virus has been associated with a fatal outcome."

http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/publication...assessment.pdf
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Old 04-03-2013, 10:46 AM   #55
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Map of cases, courtesy of Ninman:

https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid...mid=1364992703
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Old 04-03-2013, 10:56 AM   #56
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Agreed+++ Exodia.

Dietrich, I wasn't aware it was a reassortment - that is NOT reassuring at all. Who knows what tricks this new one has up its sleeve or can quickly learn?

As Exodia points out, China provides ideal conditions for brand new, as well as 'mix & match' buglets that can wreak havoc.

What really concerns me is.. I don't think China learned much from SARS in terms of being open with the world. I don't think they're being any more open than they have to be. I caught a video on one of our news channels as they explained there were 2 more cases. Yup - it is SO reassuring to see a waiting room full of patients wearing masks, on IVs & staff treating them masked, gowned & gloved to the max. Think that bit of video was snuck by the censors - I'll see if I can find it.

What's going to have to happen is... people who know where the infectious disease/respiratory hospitals are, will literally have to watch them. Whgo & how many coming in? How many coming out? Are Chinese authorities playing musical patients out the back doors again?
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Old 04-03-2013, 11:00 AM   #57
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Sue, the cynic in me thinks if China is telling us about 9, you can multiply that number by a factor of 10 or 100 that they are not telling us about.
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Old 04-03-2013, 11:22 AM   #58
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http://news.yahoo.com/scientists-chi...095703617.html

Quote:
They said the virus is troubling because it can infect poultry without producing any symptoms, while seriously sickening humans. The virus, previously known to have infected only birds, appears to have mutated, enabling it to more easily infect other animals, including pigs, which could serve as hosts and spread the virus more widely among humans, they said.
Flocks of incubators silently spreading a plague..,
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Old 04-03-2013, 12:27 PM   #59
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Exodia, I've been trying to remember the 'fudge factor' with SARS. I think when they finally provided their corrected figures it was something like 40 to 1 or worse.

Many cases, especially if they happen in the boonies will never find their way into official case counts & I'm willing to bet that's happening as we speak. Blatant respiratories, they'll get creative with the diagnosis or something.

Like I said, until/unless some gutsy folks are willing to literally watch the hospitals & look for unusual traffic or 'behaviours'.. well until that happens, we won't know what's really going on.
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Old 04-03-2013, 12:47 PM   #60
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Anybody happen to know the interpretation key for Niman's map? I'm not getting the different colours for the symbols, the significance of the dots...
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Old 04-03-2013, 12:52 PM   #61
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Do you mean this?

H7N9 Pandemic Cases & Sequences
A new pandemic (H7N9) has started in China. It is currently centered near Shanghai in three areas (Shanghai, Anhui, Jiangsu). Sequences from 3 cases signal human adaptation. Map will cite confirmed, suspect, and sequenced cases.
Öffentlich · 1.775 Ansichten
Erstellt am 2. Apr. · Von niman · Vor 3 Stunden aktualisiert
1 Bewertungen · 1 Kommentare · KML ·

87M Shanghai A/Shanghai/1/2013
Earliest confirmed case (87M). Father of two suspect cases (69M and 55M). Younger son died.Disease onset February 19. Admitted No 5 Peoples Hospital on or before February 24. Died March 4.

55M Shanghai
Son (55M) of first confirmed case (87M). No 5 Peoples Hospital (admitted between February 14 - 24. Died late February.

69M Shanghai
Son (69M) of first confirmed case (87M). Discharged from No 5 Peoples Hospital (admitted between February 14 - 24.

27M Shanghai A/Shanghai/2/2013
First confirmed case (27M) with H7 Q226L Disease onset February 27. Died March 10.

Chuzhou City 35F A/Anhui/1/2013
Second confirmed case (35F) with H7 Q226L Han (husband Zang) Chuzhou City South Qiao Area Apartment 4 layers Disease onset March 9 fever March 14 visited vegetable market 5 days prior to buy live chi...

Xu 45F Jiangning District
Live poultry slaughter in Jiangning District. Disease onset March 19. transferred to ICU in Nanjing Hospital March 27

48F Suqian City
Sheet metal processing in Suqian City Shuyang County. March 19 disease onset. Hospitalized March 30 to ICU.

83M Suzhou City
Suzhou City Wuijang District - 83M retired. Disease onset March 20. local hospital March 29

32F Wuxi City
Changzhou, now lives in Wuxi City, Binhu District unemployed March 21 disease onset. ICU March 28 in Wuxi hospital.

Shanghai
PCR confirmed fatal case

Shanghai
PCR confirmed fatal case

Shanghai
PCR confirmed fatal case

Shanghai
PCR confirmed discharged case

Shanghai
PCR confirmed discharged case

Hang 38M Taicang
Cook who lived in Jiande, Hangzhou but worked in Taicang Jiangsu Disease onset March 18 Hospitalized in Jiande Hospital, Transferred to Xiaoshan hospital on March 24. Died March 27.

Yang 67M Hangzhou
Retired Disease onset March 25 Hospitalized in Hangzhou. April 2 transferred yo the Affiliated Hospital of Zheijiang University School of Medine
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Old 04-03-2013, 12:56 PM   #62
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I think yellow is suspected, no confirmation, but close family with bad respiratory/death at the same time as a confired case.

I think blue are the intial cases confirmed bt China, prehaps those where the sequences have been released.

A dot means still alive, and not dot I think is a fatality.
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Old 04-03-2013, 01:21 PM   #63
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I wondered because I counted SIXTEEN cases & last I heard... there were 9.
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Old 04-03-2013, 01:40 PM   #64
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I know one of the initial positives had a family cluster, his son died of pneumonia and another was very ill but recovered. These two were not tested (that we know of) so will never be counted. As for the other number descrepancies, I'm not sure.
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Old 04-03-2013, 02:25 PM   #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Exodia View Post
I know one of the initial positives had a family cluster, his son died of pneumonia and another was very ill but recovered. These two were not tested (that we know of) so will never be counted. As for the other number descrepancies, I'm not sure.
The sons were tested and both came up negative. However, a couple of cases that are counted as confirmed, and either died or are critically ill, showed only a "weak positive" on the test. So I'm taking a "negative" with a large grain of salt.
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Old 04-03-2013, 02:28 PM   #66
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That video I saw on the news... can't find it. They have a few others but nothing showing the specific scene I want with many patients coughing, in masks & on IVs.

I did watch a 12 minute interview with one of our flu boffins. He's pretty experienced in flu genomics & has looked at this one - the sequences anyway. In his & others' opinion, this one comes from 'bad parentage'. In other words, the traits that make influenzas human killers are there save EZ H-H.
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Old 04-03-2013, 02:53 PM   #67
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Boxun

Avian influenza infection source a mystery

7 infections or deaths, only two currently have a clear history of live poultry contact, how other people infected with the disease is not known. According to Chinese media reports, according to the Shanghai Center for Disease Control survey, Shanghai patients, surnamed Li and his son basically no history of contact with live poultry, and also do not have to go out history, is a retiree living in the district. In addition, an infected 27-year-old Wu is engaged in pork sales in January this year to the Shanghai Minhang one vegetable market from Jiangsu. Although the vegetable market poultry sales, but Wu did not directly come into contact with Wu booth from the poultry stalls at least 20 meters. According to family members of Wu, Wu rarely to the poultry stalls in contact with poultry. But the hospital found that liver function tests Wu Wu have three positive liver function abnormalities.

---------- Post added at 02:51 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:47 PM ----------

http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate (Boxun)


Nanjing: The first case of H7N9 medical expenses 10,000 in one day, selling medical treatment
See the Boxun hot: environmental destruction and pollution
(The Boxun Beijing on April 3, 2013 reprint)
Source: rfi of the Hong Kong special correspondent Zheng Hanliang


Nanjing's first case of H7N9 cases daily medical expenses need to sell 10,000 yuan medical treatment

Nanjing: The first case of H7N9 medical expenses 10,000 in one day, selling medical treatment
South of Shanghai Minhang District is a closed chicken poultry counter. The picture was taken on April 3, 2013. Locally known as the master of the counter a month ago infection suspected bird flu deaths. (Source: Reuters / Carlos Barria)

According to mainland media reports, Nanjing confirmed the first case of H7N9 cases patients can not afford hospital treatment costs 10,000 yuan a day, family members consider to sell the house cash, but netizens address was published in the microblogging worry about the house not sell, angry but helpless family was still worried about medical expenses, hoping someone to help, and also hope that the hospital will do their best where.

According to the Beijing News reported, the 45-year-old patient Xu, Jiangning District, a district of residence, in a place far away from her home, a farmers market, the sale of poultry. Xu the industry's son sea (a pseudonym), said that the mother engaged in live poultry slaughter, but on weekdays in good physical condition, never thought of Xu infected with avian influenza.

Xu receiving treatment in hospital ICU cost nearly 1 million a day, they have spent 10 million after another, or with relatives and friends through. The industry originally intend to sell the second-hand housing industry, home to pay medical expenses, but suddenly found home address was posted on the microblogging sea. "Who to buy now? Certainly not sell." The industry sea some anger. He said should be investigated for the responsibility of users to publish these information.

The home industry is still worried about medical expenses, they hope someone help also hope that the hospital will do their best treatment.

Permit any of the work of the farmers market administrator Characteristic study of brown, relevant departments have been on the market disinfection permit any contact with people who are blood tests, the test results are good. "

The report quoted Xu husband said, as early as March 19, Xu has been aware of the discomfort, she said industry sea son, feeling sore, uncomfortable. March 20, industry sea came home from work and found the mother appeared cold symptoms, some coughing, fever, he and his mother, after discussions, decided the next day to take her home to a nearby hospital for treatment.

21, 2009, after the diagnosis, the local hospital told Xu, she got pneumonia. At noon the same day, "X-ray examination report card" displayed a shooting permit any markings increased sheet height dense shadow in the lower right lung, including diagnosis and advice column reads: consider the right middle lobe inflammation, if necessary review or further examination.

Industry, Hai said the hospital was "no beds" to Community Hospital infusion treatment recommendations Xu. He did not expect the mother in the last two days after the infusion, the situation has not improved.

Reported that the March 27, Xu sicker industry sea mother go to Nanjing, a hospital ICU treatment. On April 2, the hospital informed that, Xu critical condition, is rescue.

This one afternoon, Jiangsu Province, organized by the Office of Health expert, according to Xu clinical manifestations, laboratory testing and epidemiological findings, diagnosis permit any confirmed cases of the H7N9 avian flu infection, she is the first case of human infection of H7N9 avian influenza in Jiangsu Province cases. (Boxun boxun.com)
18223121809

---------- Post added at 02:53 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:51 PM ----------

2 Students with H7N9?!

Network transmission Nanchang, two students suspected of being infected H7N9 official, said rumors
(The Boxun Beijing on April 3, 2013 reprint)
Dajiang News reports: April 2, microblogging users broke the news that two students suspected to be infected with avian flu quarantine inspection, triggered widespread concern, Nanchang XVII. The morning of April 3, Nanchang XVII through the school's official website said in a news release has been verified, the school has no students of illness is isolation, true news network transmission.

"We attach great importance to see the online news, the first time for verification, found that schools do not students suspected to be infected with avian flu, and no student illness is isolation morning, announced through the school website, to remind the majority of teachers and students do not listen to rumors. "Nanchang seventeen principals Tao Yan told reporters.





It is learned from the Health Department of Jiangxi Province, as of now, Jiangxi Province have not yet found of human infection with the H7N9 avian influenza. (Boxun boxun.com)
44192091509
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Old 04-03-2013, 03:02 PM   #68
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Neat article. Pictures of some of the dead. Raises questions about the hospital care leading to the Father transmitting to the two kids.

http://translate.googleusercontent.c...Q#.UVx6v77D_mE


...Worth checking out.

---------- Post added at 03:02 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:58 PM ----------

More info about newest victims ......

http://translate.googleusercontent.c...Q#.UVx8GL7D_mE
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Old 04-03-2013, 04:15 PM   #69
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Map of media reported cases ..... via Recombinomics

Quite widespread and therefore we are most probably only hearing
about a minority of the cases.

It is reported that the Flutrackers website is apparently suffering denial
of service attacks from mainland China .

Attached Images
File Type: jpg 2013 04 04 Flu map.jpg (145.2 KB, 104 views)
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Old 04-03-2013, 07:43 PM   #70
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Its a bit hard to know if there is a cover up .... but Chinese news has reported 100 people are infected. If its a pandemic my guess is migrating birds have dropped in on the Yanctsi Delta for a snack and their next port of call is..........Japan . "Just a guess"
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Old 04-03-2013, 09:18 PM   #71
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Quote:
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It is reported that the Flutrackers website is apparently suffering denial
of service attacks from mainland China .
I was on Boxun earlier. They were also saying they were down due to attack.I think a nerve got hit.

---------- Post added at 09:18 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:14 PM ----------

If 100 people are said to have it, and as CS said up-thread - the real number may be 40 times that, then they are having a very serious problem!!!!
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Old 04-03-2013, 09:26 PM   #72
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My sino-sense is tingling...
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Old 04-04-2013, 08:45 AM   #73
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...urth-dies.html

4th death, 10 official cases. They still say no H2H spread but the article mentions one sick, dead but untested contact...
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Old 04-04-2013, 09:06 AM   #74
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11 confirmed
http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/a...reported-china
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Old 04-04-2013, 10:00 AM   #75
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Fascinating geneological (phylogenic) trees for H7N9 at
http://epidemic.bio.ed.ac.uk/node/23

Changes in late 2011 allowing infection in poultry, then some others about 3 months ago. Maybe these latter genetic changes allow the virus to bind to mammalian receptors. So it starts infecting pigs and/or humans around new year, in china.
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