Good read on Iran

[Oric]

http://www.newstatesman.com/world-af.../z-iran-part-1

No one can decypher a complex country such as Iran, with so many propaganda wars going on international scale, this article is close to being realistic

[Ross]

Oric ... I hope you are correct because July 1 is now only hours away .

Tick , tick , tick .........

Hossein Shariatmadari, the chief editor of the Iranian Keyhan newspaper,
which is directly under the supervision of the supreme leader, warned in a
commentary on Saturday that not only will Iran not back down on what it
sees as its right to become a nuclear power but that it has the ability to
stop oil tanker passage through the strait should new sanctions take effect.

“It is noteworthy that should the oil embargo on Iran by the European Union
take effect on July 1st, then the Islamic Iran has the right to retaliation as the
waters of the Strait of Hormuz are located within Iranian territory,” Shariatmadari said.
“According to the Geneva 1958 Convention and the Jamaica 1982 Convention,
which touches on the legality of the international waterways, Iran can close
down the Strait of Hormuz to all oil tankers and even other commercial vessels
if it is barred from selling oil.”

http://www.newstatesman.com/world-af.../z-iran-part-1

[Potemkin]

[Hossein Shariatmadari, the chief editor of the Iranian Keyhan newspaper,
which is directly under the supervision of the supreme leader, warned in a
commentary on Saturday that not only will Iran not back down on what it
sees as its right to become a nuclear power but that it has the ability to
stop oil tanker passage through the strait should new sanctions take effect.[/QUOTE]

Sue and be the pariah not only in the west but the Arabs and cOuntirs which buy oil.

You want to see a bunch of warships in the Gulf?

I think the Iranian navy would be at the bottom of the Straits faily quickly.

I am sure there would probably be some preemptive strikes at other strategic Iranian assets like communications.

[penguinzee]

Straits of Hormuz cut off, there's be a HUGE problem, and the second the first bullet flies, we're toast economically...

Pote, I'm sure we can sink their navy PDQ (matter of days) but for me the problem is all the missiles that Iran has. Pointing them at Saudi and Iraqi oilfields will do far more damage than pointing them at US warships (though I'm sure some will be sent in that direction). Assuming Iran tries a saturation attack, it could even overwhelm any missile defense systems the Saudis have (not sure what's available in Iraq).

In short-the first real casualty of such a war (other than the truth) would be the oilfields of Saudi Arabia and Iraq, ensuring a form of MAD (mutually assured destruction), and I'm pretty sure Obama and the Joint Chiefs are quite aware of this.

Iran may be run by a bunch of zealots, but they're not stupid...

Franc (penguinzee)

[Dreamweaver]

In this interview today, former IDF Chief of Staff Moshe Ya’alon explains why we can no longer wait for sanctions to work. Time is up. He makes a very strong case why they will do something soon.

Shavit: What the vice premier is telling me is that we are close to the moment of truth regarding Iran.
Ya’alon: “Definitely. When I was director of Military Intelligence, in the 1990s, Iran did not possess one kilogram of enriched uranium. Today it has 6,300 kilograms of uranium enriched to a level of 3.5 percent and about 150 kilograms enriched to a level of 20 percent. When I was chief of staff, in the first decade of this century, Iran had a few hundred centrifuges, most of which were substandard.
“At present there are about 10,000 centrifuges in Natanz and in Kom, which are enriching about eight kilograms of uranium a day. Since this government took office in 2009, the number of centrifuges in Iran has almost doubled and the amount of enriched uranium has increased sixfold. The meaning of these data is that Iran already today has enough enriched uranium to manufacture five atomic bombs. If Iran is not stopped, within a year it will have enough uranium for seven or eight atomic bombs.
“In addition, the Iranians apparently possess a weapons development system which they are hiding from the international supervisory apparatus. The Iranians also have 400 missiles of different types, which can reach the whole area of Israel and certain parts of Europe. Those missiles were built from the outset with the ability to carry nuclear warheads. So the picture is clear. Five years ago, even three years ago, Iran was not within the zone of the nuclear threshold. Today it is. Before our eyes Iran is becoming a nuclear-threshold power.” …
Shavit: We survived the Cold War. We also survived the nuclearization of Pakistan and North Korea. Israel is said to possess strategic capability that is able to create decisive deterrence against Iran. Would it not be right to say that just as Europe lived with the Soviet bomb, we will be able to live in the future with the Shiite bomb?
Ya’alon: “No and no and again no. The first answer to your question is that if Iran goes nuclear, four or five more countries in the Middle East are liable to go nuclear, too. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, Jordan and other Arab states will say that if Iran has a bomb they also need a bomb. The result will be a nuclear Middle East. A nuclear Middle East will not be stable and therefore the world will not be stable. Iranian nuclearization will bring in its wake nuclear chaos.
“The second answer to your question is that a nuclear umbrella will allow Iran to achieve regional hegemony. The Gulf states, finding themselves under that umbrella, will ask themselves which they prefer: distant Washington or nearby Tehran. In my view, they will opt for nearby Tehran. A nuclear Iran is liable to take control of the energy sources in the Persian Gulf and of a very large slice of the world’s oil supply. That will have far-reaching international implications. But a nuclear Iran will also challenge Israel and bring about a series of brutal conventional confrontations on our borders. That will have serious consequences for Israel.
“The third answer to your question is that one day the Iranian regime is liable to use its nuclear capability. That does not mean that the day after the Iranians acquire a bomb they will load it on a plane or a missile and drop it on a Western city. But there is a danger of the use of nuclear weapons by means of proxies. A terrorist organization could smuggle a dirty bomb into the port of New York or the port of London or the port of Haifa. I also do not rule out the possibility of the direct use of nuclear weapons by means of missiles. That risk is low, but it exists. That extreme scenario is not impossible.”
Shavit: But the Americans are with us. The Americans will rescue us. Why jump in head-first?
Ya’alon: “There is agreement between the United States and us on the goal, and agreement on intelligence and close cooperation. But we are in disagreement about the red line. For the Americans, the red line is an order by [Ayatollah] Khamenei to build a nuclear bomb. For us, the red line is Iranian ability to build a nuclear bomb.
“We do not accept the American approach for three reasons. First, because it implies that Iran can be a threshold-power which, as long as it does not manufacture nuclear weapons in practice is allowed to possess the ability to manufacture them. Second, because in our assessment there is no certainty that it will be possible to intercept in time the precious report that Khamenei finally gave the order to build a bomb . Third, there is a disparity between the sense of threat and urgency in Jerusalem and the sense of threat and urgency in Washington.”

http://www.haaretz.com/weekend/magaz...emium-1.436414