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Investing for Peak Oil Surviving Peak Oil financially is a problem we will all confront sooner or later.

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Old 02-08-2011, 10:50 PM   #1
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Exclamation Did Wikileaks Confirm Peak Oil?

Cables suggest the Saudis may have overstated their reserves by as much as 40%.

Links to the four cables can be found at the link above.
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Old 02-15-2011, 06:40 AM   #2
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My money is on an absolute and total stuff-up .

The condition is infectious .

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Old 02-15-2011, 08:45 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leistb View Post
Cables suggest the Saudis may have overstated their reserves by as much as 40%.
That's not the worst of it. The cables say the Saudis are probably producing AS MUCH AS THEY CAN. If this is true (I think it is), it means there is no spare capacity in the world. It means we're truly at peak, and have been for about 6 years now, so that we can expect a decline in oil production as soon as this year.
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Old 02-16-2011, 11:31 AM   #4
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"" It means we're truly at peak, and have been for about 6 years now, so that we can expect a decline in oil production as soon as this year.""

DR, So can we expect more of the same, just like the past 6 years, or do you expect "it or things" to get significantly different or "more interesting" than the past 6 yrs. If so then how so and more so for whom?

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Old 02-16-2011, 01:26 PM   #5
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DR, So can we expect more of the same, just like the past 6 years, or do you expect "it or things" to get significantly different or "more interesting" than the past 6 yrs. If so then how so and more so for whom?
This is a hotly contested question. Some will tell you we can continue to go sideways for another 6 years. That would mean that the peak (the plateau) lasts 12 years. It's possible, but I doubt it.

History suggests that production plateaus last something like 5 or 6 years, not 12. The US lower 48 production plateau lasted roughly 5 years. The N.Sea plateau about 6 or 7. These suggest that this year, we will have LESS production than last year. That's my guess.

Also, you can look at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_megaprojects
which shows the global supply situation. It lists all the new supply additions coming on-line, year by year. And you can see that they drop off rather severely this year and last year, which also suggests that the plateau is about run its course.

If the middle east was peaceful, I'd guess a smooth decline rate in production THIS year of, maybe 1% to 5%. But the mid east is subject to turmoil so the ride downward could be bumpy.
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Old 02-16-2011, 01:34 PM   #6
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So who gets the most of it as production starts to drop.
The ones with the money, and not the print on demand money i assume.
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Old 02-16-2011, 01:41 PM   #7
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So who gets the most of it as production starts to drop.
The ones with the money, and not the print on demand money i assume.
The oil supply curve is moving to the left, so price goes up, and quantity consumed go down. Who stops consuming? The guys who are the lowest down on the demand curve, and those are the guys who are the "least able to pay" the marginal price. So who gets priced out of the market first?

The sad answer is: the first to drop out are the non-oil poor countries in africa, s.america like Algeria or Peru. Then at the next level, at maybe a sustained $120/barrel (which isn't too far away), is N.America -- because N.American consumption has a lot of slack. The average mpg in the US vehicle fleet is ridiculously low at 22.6, and people will switch from their suburbans to smartcars at $7/gallon I betcha.

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Old 02-16-2011, 02:22 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ross View Post
My money is on an absolute and total stuff-up .

The condition is infectious .

That is a pretty crappy photoshop job.
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