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View Poll Results: Will the new H7N9 virus cause a pandemic?
Yes 5 23.81%
No 10 47.62%
Don't know 6 28.57%
Voters: 21. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 04-06-2013, 06:27 AM   #1
Kassy
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Default Will the new H7N9 virus cause a pandemic?

Will the new H7N9 virus that popped up around Shanghai cause a pandemic in the near term?

Please vote & elaborate in a post.
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Old 04-06-2013, 07:09 AM   #2
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it may, but of course less than 50% subjective probability, so I voted no.
That was easy.
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Old 04-06-2013, 08:27 AM   #3
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Gut instinct only..I go with yes.
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Old 04-06-2013, 12:05 PM   #4
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If cases go logrhythmic and skyrocket,then yeh,it could.
If it keeps sputtering around, no it won`t.
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Old 04-06-2013, 12:46 PM   #5
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Where are the bodies ?

It was detected in February I believe .

Unless the Chinese are hiding the sick and dead
human to human transmission seems rather weak .

If it does not go exponential in the coming week
then we may have many months of quiet times.

.
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Old 04-06-2013, 01:04 PM   #6
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It is still too early to tell..,

Remember SARS?

Remember how long H5N1 has been sputtering?

We'll see..,
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Old 04-06-2013, 01:28 PM   #7
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No, it takes something much easier to transmit H to H.
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Old 04-06-2013, 02:01 PM   #8
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Not likely
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Old 04-06-2013, 02:09 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gsgs View Post
it may, but of course less than 50% subjective probability, so I voted no.
That was easy.
There's subjective probablity but also the number of known changes needed for mammelian adaptation and this thingie seems to have some. Did you not consider those?

Just curious.
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Old 04-06-2013, 02:23 PM   #10
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I voted no.

I mainly hope it won't go pandemic.

Arguments pro:
-this looks like a better package compared to H5N1 (H and N are from birds the internal genes are H9N2 adepted to mammelian set up)

Arguments contra:
-Back in the days of H5N1 we also saw numbers like this without a following pandemic.
-The H5N1 cases were probably more numerous then the cases we have seen so far. Here i'm going with the unofficial numbers as were mentioned via Boxun at the time. The official numbers were doctored. For fun check out the number of cases reported on a quarterly basis in the run up to the 2008 olympics.

The big difference is that H5N1 was easy to spot because the birds died in rather noticeable numbers and that is not what happining now. Being asymptomatic in birds and infectious in mammals is a rather dangerous combination and if it's spread in birds over a large area and infecting people in a large area there are many more chances for that final adaptations.

I so hope i'm right but i'm not sure. Fingers X-d , again.
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Old 04-06-2013, 11:17 PM   #11
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T.V. news says "authorities" are watching the situation "closely"......... that means its coming and there is nothing anyone can do to stop it. "Authorities" just want to confirm that they are not "asleep"
I went to church about 4 hours ago and a lot of people are missing with chest infections.
................ "Im fine"
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Old 04-06-2013, 11:36 PM   #12
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Watching closely doesn't necessarily mean IT is coming. BUT... if it does, all they can try & do is impose age old methods that COULD work if they were universally respected.

And they never are.
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Old 04-07-2013, 07:13 AM   #13
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I'm going out on a limb and predict this will evolve into a pandemic strain, although it may take several months or more for it to acquire the final mutation(s) needed for sustained H2H.

I wouldn't be surprised if there were cases reported in Sydney and San Fran tomorrow, nor would I be surprised if cases temporarily wane until re-emergence next chinese winter.

I would be very surprised if this fails to ever go pandemic...I simply don't see that happening with a virus that is endemic asymptomatically in pigeons, chickens, quail and ducks, across a swath of hundreds of miles of densely populated China. It's not going to be eradicated from nature at this point. Which means people will be exposed to it, at some rate, permanently. Which means it will likely eventually find the H2H key. Hopefully that day will come in a year or two, after we have a vax, rather than a month or two.

Last edited by Dietrich; 04-07-2013 at 07:21 AM.
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Old 04-07-2013, 08:14 AM   #14
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It sounds like H5N1 all over again.

---------- Post added at 08:14 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:12 AM ----------

Our discussions are a carbon copy of 7-8 years ago.
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Old 04-07-2013, 08:15 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andy View Post
It sounds like H5N1 all over again.
Yes, and that's a problem. Boy who cried wolf syndrome. After H5N1 and H1N1 swine flu, I think the public is likely much more jaded and complacent.
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Old 04-07-2013, 08:36 PM   #16
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Thought I'd poke my head in to see what people think. Hello all!
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Old 04-07-2013, 09:03 PM   #17
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Damn it! You have been MISSED!

What's in style for the next pandemic?
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Old 04-07-2013, 09:49 PM   #18
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Too many moving parts to make a solid guess... it IS concerning that there's already mammalian traits (and all those dead pigs last month sure set off my radar!) but it hasn't gotten out of hand yet, as best we can tell... if it's gonna go as it is, we should know in a week or so, when cases start showing up outside of China (Toronto and Vancouver being 2 possible points). Otherwise, it'll sputter for some time till it gets its act together... if it ever does...

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Old 04-08-2013, 08:12 PM   #19
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quiplash posted sans mask and gloves- so that ups the chances a bit.
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Old 04-08-2013, 11:59 PM   #20
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It made the MSM Evening news...
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Old 04-09-2013, 12:15 AM   #21
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lint, H7N9 has been making the MSM news in Canada - print & tv since the first day. Not so in the US?
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Old 04-09-2013, 03:31 AM   #22
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I considered everything that is known to me.And I don't know about
known changes needed for mammelian adaptation.All I usually hear
is "noone knows..." If it has the mammalean adaptions already
then we needn't worry that it might acquire them to increase spread.

Someone might doubleinfect some guinea-animals now
with H7N9 and seasonal flu but keep the result secret.
oops, NSABB, please censor me
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