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Old 01-15-2015, 12:04 PM   #1
gsgs
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Default google flu trends

USA: http://magictour.free.fr/us1451.GIF
World: http://magictour.free.fr/gow1451.GIF
CDC vs. google : http://magictour.free.fr/US1453H.GIF

ECDC (Europe): http://magictour.free.fr/eu1504.GIF
[black line: maximum last season ; green line : week 4 = week 3 in USA]


google flu trends USA,
date Mon, week, google, CDC, publishing date google, publishing date CDC

2014/11/30,week49,2287,2605 2014/12/07,2014/12/12
2014/12/07,week50,3046,3685 2014/12/14,2014/12/19
2014/12/14,week51,5234,5533 2014/12/21,2014/12/30 59(Spain)
2014/12/21,week52,6911,5939 2014/12/28,2015/01/05 104(Spain)
2014/12/28,week01,6220(USA),219(Spain),2932(Japan) 2015/01/05
2015/01/04,week02,4647(USA),353(Spain),4290(Japan)
2015/01/11,week03,4325(USA),493(Spain),5249(Japan)
2015/01/18,week04,4639(USA),1020(Spain),5584(Japan)

2015/01/25,3998(US),703(SP),3585(JP),146(NL),1374(F),684(C H),1517(DE)

2015/01/18,4580,703,5584,119,0470,452,1179 assigned on 2015/01/25
2015/01/25,3998,1020,3585,146,1374,684,1517 assigned on 2015/02/01
2015/02/01,3498,597,2083,158,2333,822,1853 assigned on 2015/02/08
2015/02/08,3444,486,1345,193,2509,812,2332 assigned on 2015/02/15




2014/12/29,6989
2014/12/30,6773
2014/12/31,
2015/01/01,
2015/01/02,6387
2015/01/03,6282
2015/01/04,6223
2015/01/05,6220,5807
2015/01/06,4283
2015/01/07,4169
2015/01/08, <2015/01/09,14:08
2015/01/09,3913
2015/01/10,

2015/01/we,4590(USA),
2015/01/11,4647(USA),353(Spain),4290(Japan)
2015/01/12,4690 13:00 ,
2015/01/13,4559(USA),376(Spain),4636(Japan)
2015/01/14,4585(USA),399(Spain),4787(Japan)
2015/01/15,4631(USA),433(Spain),4887(Japan)
2015/01/16,4560(USA),436(Spain),4976(Japan)
2015/01/17,4270(USA),460(Spain),5159(Japan)
2015/01/18,4325(USA),493(Spain),5249(Japan)
2015/01/19,4458(USA),509(Spain),5682(Japan) 17:38 MET
2015/01/20,4684(USA),543(Spain),5896(Japan) 12:30 MET
2015/01/21,4678(USA),565(Spain),5941(Japan)
2015,01/22,4623(USA),579(Spain),5963(Japan)
2015/01/23,
2015/01/24,4507(USA),626(Spain),6033(Japan)
2015/01/25,4594(USA),673(Spain),5787(Japan)
2015/01/26,4502(USA),759(Spain),5299(Japan)
2015/01/27,4431(USA),837(Spain),4954(Japan)
2015/01/28,4382(USA),928(Spain),4695(Japan)
2015/01/29,4348,990,4396,137(NL),885(F)
2015/01/30,4278(US),1019(SP),4097(JP),140(NL),1029(F),632( CH),1435(DE)
2015/01/31,3996,1028,3833,144,1187,661,1479
2015/02/01,3996,1020,3585,146,1374,684,1517
2015/02/02,3498,1010,3220,150,1566,699,1564
2015/02/03,
2015/02/04,3502,961,2922,152,1828,762,1624
2015/02/05,3483,778,2478,148,2106,802,1717
2015/02/06,3444,715,2312,148,2174,807,1766
2015/02/07,3473,634,2186,150,2301,815,1806
2015/02/08,
2015/02/09,3677,559,1933,162,2377,828,1915
2015/02/10,---
2015/02/11,---
2015/02/12,----
2015/02/13,---
2015/02/14,3464,503,1413,197,2529,822,2279
2015/02/15,3444,486,1345,193,2509,812,2332
2015/02/16,3305,490,1269,186,2458,808,2394
2015/02/17,3278,475,1111,178,2375,805,2443
2015/02/18,
2015/02/19,3296,461,827,153,2170,764,2490
2015/02/20,3238,451,695,147,2112,746,2531
2015/02/21,2983,430,598,143,2197,729,2563
2015/02/22,2957,405,511,138,2191,719,2557
2015/02/23,2699,367,404,134,2083,702,2554
2015/02/24,2689,333,372,131,1961,677,2577
2015/02/25,2686,303,354,126,1873,665,2584
2015/02/26,2682,265,334,120,1699,643,2549
2015/02/27,2656,232,319,115,1487,635,2487
2015/02/28,2657,215,304,109,1148,611,2402
2015/03/01,2671,198,290,103,943,603,2344
2015/03/02,2673,176,267,98,790,579,2257
2015/03/03,2685,165,248,89,632,552,2132
2015/03/04,
2015/03/05,2652,143,217,82,413,512,1917
2015/03/06,2607,143,203,78,324,476,1832
2015/03/13,2487,88,159,61,127,314,1519
2015/03/15,2466,80,151,59,102,285,1448
2015/03/16,2701(!),74,147,56,90,264,1396
2015/03/17,2474,66,146,54,83,249,1329
2015/03/18,2414,69,148,52,77,233,1282

max__2014f,6911,1028,6033,197,2529,828,2584
peak_2013f,5008,0387,3311,052,0371,257,1187
peak_2012f,10555,0266,5273,270,1324,719,2063

week16,1530,20,195,35,11,35,555
minimum,762,4,5,13,2,17,330

google flu trends has daily values, daily updates
(usually at ~13:00 GMT) but these are overwritten
the next day and only one entry per week will be kept.
(the Monday-value)


Spain is the first country in Europe that has sharply increasing ILI
[peaks on 2015/01/31 , now France is sharply increasing]


Japan, weeks 35/2014-02/2015:6,7,9,10,12,14,18,24,34,47,67,111,186,
338,570,1180.2522,2932,4290

peek in 2012/13=5273, peek in 2013/14=3311

Portugal deaths up at Euromomo (but not Spain yet)
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Last edited by gsgs; 03-18-2015 at 10:50 AM.
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Old 01-20-2015, 09:52 AM   #2
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USA : http://magictour.free.fr/usa15a.GIF
Spain : http://magictour.free.fr/SPAI15.GIF
Japan : http://magictour.free.fr/jpn15a.GIF
Switzerland:http://magictour.free.fr/ch15a.GIF
(above pics are updated and can be removed on next edit)

2015/02/20: http://magictour.free.fr/eu15b.GIF


there are known problems to compare several seasons
at google flu trends
they changed the methods and the used data may also
have changed
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Last edited by gsgs; 02-22-2015 at 01:04 PM.
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Old 01-25-2015, 08:12 AM   #3
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Japan peaked on 2015/01/24
Spain peaked on 2015/01/31
Netherlands peaked on 2015/02/14
France peaked on 2015/02/14
Switzerland peaked on 2015/02/09
Germany peaked on 2015/02/21 (but went up again on 2015/02/24)
... but then peaked again on 2015/02/25, this time going down quite a bit
USA is post-peak, but goes down only slowly
USA region 1 peaked in week 3
USA region 2 peaked in week 4 (CDC-weeks = Europe-weeks -1)


Germany regions week 9:
http://magictour.free.fr/de150222.GIF
Netherlands:
https://gallery.mailchimp.com/ed79e0...2015_no_11.pdf
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Last edited by gsgs; 03-05-2015 at 01:37 PM.
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Old 03-16-2015, 11:11 AM   #4
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google flu trends is up in USA today from 2466 to 2701, which is unusual

must be influenza B

--------edit----------------
down to 2474 again on the next day
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Last edited by gsgs; 03-18-2015 at 10:51 AM.
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Old 11-02-2015, 02:02 AM   #5
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last data from 2015/08/08


Scientists are working on ways of predicting where
the flu will strike ...
Jefferson Public Radio‎ - 13 hours ago
In 2008, Google launched Flu Trends, an attempt to
track the spread of influenza based on “aggregated
search queries.” But the effort has had ...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Researchers working on real-time flu 'now-cast'
Drug Store News‎ - 2 days ago
The most famous of these attempts is probably Google Flu Trends,
... data from Google, Twitter data, near-real time clinical data from
electronic ...Ensemble models provide accurate real-time estimates
of current ... News-
------------------------------------------------------------------
Scientific method: Tales of the unexpected
Nature.com‎ - 4 days ago
However, her analyses of big-data programmes (the trumpeted
then debunked
Google Flu Trends is an excellent example) and nonlinear
-------------------------------------------------------------
What We Can Learn From the Epic Failure of Google Flu Trends
WIRED‎ - Oct 1, 2015
Every day, millions of people use Google to dig up information
that drives their daily lives,
from how long their commute will be to how to treat ...
---------------------------------------------------------
Google Flu Trends website shuts down; will send data to Boston ...
MobiHealthNews‎ - Aug 21, 2015
flu trends Google Flu Trends, as a website open to the general public,
has shut down. The Google Flu Trends team will continue to track flu ...
Google Flu Trends calls out sick, indefinitely CIO
Google discontinues Flu Trends, starts offering data to researchers
--------------------------------------------------------------------
'Ensemble' modeling could lead to better flu forecasts
EurekAlert (press release)‎ - 3 days ago
The most famous of these attempts is probably
Google Flu Trends (GFT), launched in 2008 but was
decommissioned in 2015. "There are many ...
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Google closes Flu Trends, will send data to researchers at Boston ...
BetaBoston‎ - Aug 26, 2015
Google is shuttering its flu tracking program known as Flu Trends
and will funnel the search data powering it to public health researchers ...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
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