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Old 05-27-2013, 04:17 AM   #1
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Default man made pandemic

later added links:
http://oba.od.nih.gov/biosecurity/about_nsabb.html



-------------------------------------------
this discussion had started in late 2011 with 2 papers from
Kawaoka and Fouchier, how H5N1 could become more dangerous,
then nsabb got involved, they first wanted
to restrict the published data but finally allowed full publication.
Then a moratorium was agreed where they would seek discussion and
delay such research, that ended earlier this year and this research
restarted. Then we had some papers, that were prepared during that
period but with lab-work outside the moratorium period.

This research is mobviously gaining speed now and we don't even
know about all the experiments, since researchers are probably
reluctant now to publish all the details.
We are holding breath for the H7N9 reassortment studies ....

I do feel pretty concerned that they will be able to understand
in the next years how this reassortment works, what strains
are compatible, what can be expected from reassorted viruses,
what host-adapting mutations to add.

They may simulate these reassortments in computers with more and more
data from different cell-cultures,animal models and maybe even
humans.

Wain-Hobson suspects that within 2 years they will generate a highly
pathogenic and transmissible virus


wiki-links
durc-dual use research of concern http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dual-use_technology
gof - gain of function research
nsabb - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationa...or_Biosecurity
Wain-Hobson editorial http://www.nature.com/news/h5n1-vira...o-away-1.12677
Asilomar: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asiloma...ecombinant_DNA
------------
Racaniello blog and TWIVs
http://www.virology.ws/
http://www.virology.ws/2013/05/07/in...-good-science/
http://www.twiv.tv/2013/05/19/twiv-233-were-surrounded/
etc.
---------
youtube panel links xttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fsVN34LRb8

------edit------------------
there was an article by Hale,Wain-Hobson,May already back in Sept.2012
in financial times:
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e8bbe...44feab49a.html
you have to wonder why they wrote in financial times first
they never address the details, reassortments,mutations,reverse genetics,
although vax-experts(but not flu),nobel,...
they should very well be able to start by themselves with the risk assessment
that they ask for ?!
---stil no reply to my emails,questions----
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Old 05-27-2013, 06:57 AM   #2
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blogs on Wain Hobson:

http://www.google.com/search?tbm=blg... 22wain+hobson

Wain-Hobson: Governments must address transmissibility studies ...
www.bioprepwatch.com/ 28. März 2013 von Bryan Cohen
Simon Wain-Hobson, the chair of the Washington, D.C.-based organization, made his
comments less than two months after influenza virologists lifted a voluntary moratorium
on work to make the H5N1 avian flu virus more ...

TWiV 233: We're surrounded - This Week in Virology
www.virology.ws/ - 19. Mai 2013 von Vincent Racaniello
35:00 R: less correlation for lab-viruses 37:00 May nasty —- Wain Hobson—-: R:,
not predictive. D:not 80% predictive, but ferret different than Guinea R: 100K-100M
deaths –> irresponsible. D: better we know it if dangerous ...

Further Feuding on Flu « Philip Alcabes
www.philipalcabes.com/ - 30. März 2013 von Philip Alcabes
An editorial by Simon Wain-Hobson in Nature the other day advances reasons why
scientists should get together to limit GOF research. Wain-Hobson questions the
scientific validity of the predictions such research makes ...

Chinese scientists slammed for creating new 'deadly' influenza ... - RT
rt.com/ - 2. Mai 2013 von RT
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, a prominent virologist at the Pasteur Institute in France,
lauded the work, but also questioned its usefulness. “It's a fabulous piece of virology by
the Chinese group and it's very impressive, but ...

NewsDaily: Fears over man-made bird flu bug
www.newsdaily.com/feed/rss/ - 3. Mai 2013
It was unclear how the flu hybrid, which is not deadly in guinea pigs, would affect people --
but Wain-Hobson warned: "These could be pandemic viruses. "That is, if there was ever
an error of they got out or there was a leak or ...

'Appalling irresponsibility': Scientists create bird flu virus that could ...
www.dailyexpress.co.uk/.../Frankenweenie-review-... 3. Mai 2013
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, an eminent virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris,
said it is very likely that some or all of the new hybrids could pass easily between
humans and possess some or all of the highly lethal ...

Council For Responsible Genetics Blog | 'Appalling irresponsibility ...www.councilforresponsiblegenetics.org/blog/ - 3. Mai 2013 von jeeg
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, an eminent virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris,
said it is very likely that some or all of these hybrids could pass easily between humans
and possess some or all of the highly lethal ...

...Fears for man-made flu bug from China's lab: It's Not just China ...
www.worldwidehippies.com/ - 5. Mai 2013 von Citizen Journalist Exchange
They are now sitting in a freezer,” virology professor Simon Wain-Hobson of
France's Pasteur Institute told AFP. He pointed to a laboratory leak of foot
and mouth, a cattle disease, which caused an outbreak in Britain six years ...

Scientists warn Chinese-made air-transmissible bybrid bird flu puts ...
www.rawstory.com/rs/ - 3. Mai 2013 von Agence France-Presse
It was unclear how the flu hybrid, which is not deadly in guinea pigs, would affect people —
but Wain-Hobson warned: “These could be pandemic viruses. “That is, if there was ever
an error of they got out or there was a leak or ...

Swine Flu - Online Discussion: H7N9 Bird Flu - Discussionwww.swineflu.org/ - 2. Mai 2013
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, an eminent virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris,
said it is very likely that some or all of these hybrids could pass easily between humans
and possess some or all of the highly lethal ...

Chinese Lab Engineers Killer Flu Strains | Drudge Retortwww.drudge.com/ - 3. Mai 2013 von MUSTANG
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, an eminent virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris,
said it is very likely that some or all of these hybrids could pass easily between humans
and possess some or all of the highly lethal ...Study: engineered airborne hybrid flu

contagious between mammals ...www.wired.co.uk/ - 3. Mai 2013 von Liat Clark
Also speaking to the Independent, virologist Simon Wain-Hobson of the Pasteur Institute
in Paris commented: "It's a fabulous piece of virology by the Chinese group and it's very
impressive, but they haven't been thinking ...

The Pandora Report | George Mason Biodefense Communitymasonbiodefense.wordpress.com/ -
3. Mai 2013 von Siddha Hover
Even amongst those scientists who admired the difficulty of the experiment,
there was criticism – ”It's a fabulous piece of virology by the Chinese group
and it's very impressive,” said Professor Wain-Hobson, a renowned ...

April 2013 News | Anthropoceneanthropoceneblog.wordpress.com/ -
27. Apr. 2013 von Robert de Neufville
In Nature, Simon Wain-Hobson called for researchers to continue their moratorium
on “gain-of-function” research into what might make bird flu spread more easily
among humans. The GAO reissued its call for a national ...

N4SA.com | Chinese
scientists slammed for creating new 'deadly ...n4sa.com/ - 2. Mai 2013 von admin
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, a prominent virologist at the Pasteur Institute in France, lauded the work, but also questioned its usefulness. “It's a fabulous piece of virology by the Chinese group and it's very impressive, but ...

A Furor over Chinese Development of New Influenza Strains | Top ...www.topsecretwriters.com/
19. Mai 2013 von SallyPainter
... been estimated that any of the five hybrid flues could realistically have as high as
a 20% fatality rate. That could be as high as 100 million people dead, according to
some virologists, such as Pasteur Institute's Professor Simon Wain-Hobson.GCR

News Summary April 2013 | Global Catastrophic Risk Institutegcrinstitute.org/ -
29. Apr. 2013 von Robert de Neufville
In Nature, Simon Wain-Hobson called for researchers to continue their moratorium
on “gain-of-function” research into what might make bird flu spread more easily
among humans. The GAO reissued its call for a national ...

The Significance of R: Chinese Whisper of an Unfortunate Eventthesignificanceofr.blogspot.com/
4. Mai 2013 von ...
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, an eminent virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris,
said it is very likely that some or all of these hybrids could pass easily between humans
and possess some or all of the highly lethal ...

Nature: H5N1 viral-engineering dangers will not go awayafludiary.blogspot.com/
27. März 2013 von Michael Coston
In a commentary sure to raise the ire of a number of flu researchers - outspoken critic
Simon Wain-Hobson, Professor of virology at the Pasteur Institute in Paris – argues in
the Journal Nature that": `H5N1 GOF work — indeed ...

Latest ArticlesSpace: Is it a spaceship that NASA has observed near Mercury?mediczlreimbursorm.blogspot.com/ - 19. Mai 2013 von bluhubigvo
"says virologist Simon Wain-Hobson of the Pasteur Institute. And even though it is still
unclear how this hybrid could affect humans, "it could be pandemic virus," net present
value calculator he says. "In other words, if someone ...

SCIENTISTS' ALARM: NEW STRAIN OF KILLER FLU CREATED IN ...
thisbluemarble.com/showthread.php?p=347008 - 2. Mai 2013 von NowVoyager
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, an eminent virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris,
said it is very likely that some or all of these hybrids could pass easily between humans
and possess some or all of the highly lethal ...

Scientists warn Obama about creating highly infectious strain of bird ...deadlinelive.info/ -
2. Apr. 2013 von Jack Blood
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, an eminent virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris
who was first to sign the letter, said that the WHO has essentially failed to take the
lead by widening the ethical debate over an area of ...

Lux Libertas – Light and Liberty » 'Appalling irresponsibility': Senior ...www.luxlibertas.com/ -
3. Mai 2013 von John Frisby
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, an eminent virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris,
said it is very likely that some or all of these hybrids could pass easily between humans
and possess some or all of the highly lethal ...H5N1 viral-engineering dangers will not go away -

MicrobeWorldwww.microbeworld.org/index.php?option=com... -27. März 2013
Governments, funders and regulatory authorities must urgently address the risks
posed by gain-of-function research, says Simon Wain-Hobson. Barely two months
after a small group of influenza virologists lifted a moratorium ...

Scientists warn Chinese-made air-transmissible hybrid bird flu puts ...
evans-politics.com/ - 3. Mai 2013 von Paul
Wain-Hobson and others fear the risk may far outweight the scientific value of the research.
The findings held little value for finding a vaccine or treatment that would take years to develop —
probably long after an outbreak, ...

Roland San Juan: China's Creation Of Deadly Super-Flu Could Be A ...
rolandsanjuan.blogspot.com/ - 4. Mai 2013 von --------
It is of no use for vaccine development and the benefit in terms of surveillance for new flu
viruses is oversold,” Professor Wain-Hobson, an expert in virology, told The Independent.
There's definitely an undercurrent of fear that ...

Top Scientists to Obama: Ban Mutation Experiments That Will Make ...
leaksource.wordpress.com/ - 1. Apr. 2013 von LeakSource
The flu community simply hasn't understood that this is a hot-button issue that will not go away,
” Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, one of the signatories, told UK's Independent newspaper.

Chinese Scientists Build Influenza Virus - Business Insiderwww.businessinsider.com/category/apple
3. Mai 2013 von Geoffrey Ingersoll
It is of no use for vaccine development and the benefit in terms of surveillance for new flu viruses
is oversold,” Professor Wain-Hobson, an expert in virology, told The Independent. There's
definitely an undercurrent of fear that ...

avian influenza (51): h5n1/h1n1 hybrids, transmissibility in guinea
pigspandemicinformationnews.blogspot.com/
4. Mai 2013 von Commonground
In a written statement, Wain-Hobson said this study, along with the earlier ones by
Fouchier and Yoshihiro Kawaoka, DVM, PhD, show that many different starting points
and different experimental protocols can lead to a flu ...

CHINESE SCIENTISTS CREATE NEW MUTANT BIRD-FLU VIRUS ...sreaves32.wordpress.com/
4. Mai 2013 von sreavess32
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, an eminent virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris,
said it is very likely that some or all of these hybrids could pass easily between humans
and possess some or all of the highly lethal ...Deadly new bird flu vindicates mutant virus
research, experts say ...

vitals.nbcnews.com/ -
4. Apr. 2013 von Will Waterman, Reuters
Writing in the scientific journal Nature last week, Simon Wain-Hobson, chair of the
Washington-based Foundation for Vaccine Research in the United States, accused
flu researchers of going down a dangerous blind alley

CHINA Developing SECRET influenza VIRUSfinancearmageddon.blogspot.com/ -
4. Mai 2013 von [email protected] (Nicole Bourbaki)
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, an eminent virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris,
said it is very likely that some or all of these hybrids could pass easily between humans
and possess some or all of the highly lethal ...

The Chicken Egg as an Embryo, The Avian Flu and other reasons ...blogs.lt.vt.edu/chickens/ -
5. Mai 2013 von The Chicken, changes everything.
Wain-Hobson and others fear the risk may far outweight the scientific value of the research.
“You do not do these things unless there is some call of extreme emergency,” he said.
“We are encountering a real and present ...

Chinese researchers branded 'appallingly irresponsible' over ...www.theverge.com/ -
3. Mai 2013 von Matt Brian
The effects on humans are unknown, but scientists believe it is very likely that some
— if not all — of the hybrids could be transmitted between humans. While virologist
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson of the Pasteur Institute in ...

All PostsALPSP: at the heart of scholarly publishing: H5N1 research ...blog.alpsp.org/ -
26. März 2012 von Lesley Ogg
An international scientific meeting to discuss the practice and policy of H5N1 research,
with a programme of talks and discussions organised by Professor John Skehel FRS
and Professor Simon Wain-Hobson. The journals ...

Scientists Launch Vaccine Research Foundation « Healthy Living Infopupurafakazazim.com/ -
11. März 2013 von admin
Discoveries will, but not a variable twist this way or that, said founder Professor
Simon Wain-Hobson, Director of the Pasteur Institute. We need new ideas that
take time to come to mind more fresh. We feed our post-doc and ...

Chinese Scientist Creates Super Deadly Virus ~ The Muffin Rises Blogtmrises.blogspot.com/ -
3. Mai 2013 von Dennis
While virologist Professor Simon Wain-Hobson of the Pasteur Institute in Paris believes that
Chen's work is "a fabulous piece of virology," he warns that the research will be of little use
for the development of vaccines or ...

WHY? | [skyqu4ke]skyqu4ke.wordpress.com/ -
2. Mai 2013 von suaven
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, an eminent virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris,
said it is very likely that some or all of these hybrids could pass easily between humans
and possess some or all of the highly lethal ...

Vaccine Research Foundation for Infectious and Tropical Diseaseswww.disabled-world.com/ -
9. Juni 2011
Simon Wain-Hobson of the Institut Pasteur. "We need new ideas – which take time to come –
and fresher minds. We must nurture our post-docs and ensure that they have the resources
they need. Good ideas could come from ...

Meeting/Webcast: H5N1 research - global vaccine ethics and
policycenterforvaccineethicsandpolicy.wordpress.co m/
7. Apr. 2012 von davidrcurry
An international scientific meeting to discuss the practice and policy of H5N1 research,
with a programme of talks and discussions organised by Professor John Skehel FRS
and Professor Simon Wain-Hobson with a particular ...

Scientists launch vaccine research foundation | Vaccines Todaywww.vaccinestoday.eu/ -
24. Juni 2011 von Gary Finnegan
Guillaume Stewart-Jones, PhD, Principal Investigator, Weatherall Institute of Molecular Medicine,
University of Oxford, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford, UK. Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, PhD,
Chief, Molecular Retrovirology, ...

Scientist Solutions - "FRONTIERS OF RETROVIROLOGY: Complex ...www.scientistsolutions.com/ -
18. März 2009
Thierry Heidmann, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif, France Walid Heneine, Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention, Atlanta, USA Simon Wain-Hobson, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
Kuan-Teh Jeang, National Institutes of ...

Deadly new bird flu vindicates controversial research | Yahoo! Healthdaymix.com/category/Health/ -
4. Apr. 2013
Writing in the scientific journal Nature last week, Simon Wain-Hobson, chair of the
Washington-based Foundation for Vaccine Research in the United States, accused
flu researchers of going down a dangerous blind alley.

Chinese researchers criticized for creating new flu strains | Family ...www.worldbulletin.net/ -
4. Mai 2013
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, a prominent virologist at Paris's Pasteur Institute,
said it is possible that hybrids could easily be transmitted between humans and
be lethal. “It's a fabulous piece of virology by the Chinese group

...Chinese researchers branded 'appallingly irresponsible' over ...en.ekikara7.jp/ -
3. Mai 2013 von admin
While virologist Professor Simon Wain-Hobson of the Pasteur Institute in Paris believes
that the Chen's work is a fabulous piece of virology, he warns that the research will be
of little use for development of vaccines or the ...

Mice made from induced stem cells « Welcome to Kupmankupman.wordpress.com/ -
26. Juli 2009 von kupman
Governments, funders and regulatory authorities must urgently address the risks
posed by gain-of-function research, says Simon Wain-Hobson. Simon Wain-Hobson;
Ecology: Primates hunting leaves forest scar. By hunting

...Cape Town in the News on 19 October, 2012 - My Cape Townmycapetown.co.za/news/ -
19. Okt. 2012 von Alan
Doctors in Cape Town ChallengeThis is CornwallIt is expected to take eight months
before Daniel Nuth, 28, Sebastian Wallace, 26, and Richard Wain-Hobson, 25, reach
their final goal, Cape Town. They ha more…

Chinese Scientists Slammed for Creating New 'Deadly' Influenza ...documentthetruth.com/
3. Mai 2013 von admin
According to Wain-Hobson, hybrid viral experiments such as Chen's could not, in the end,
be extrapolated to determine the danger to humans. “We don't know the pathogenicity
[lethality] in man and hopefully we will never ...

----------------edit------------------
http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku....viral_research
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Old 05-27-2013, 08:31 AM   #3
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http://royalsociety.org/events/2012/viruses/

http://leaksource.wordpress.com/2013...re-infectious/

04/01/2013
A group of leading scientists – including a Noble Prize winner – has proclaimed that
it is “ethically and morally” wrong to alter the deadly H5N1 virus to make it more
contagious for research purposes, and have asked President Obama to ban it.
“The accidental release of an artificial, laboratory-generated, human-transmissible H5N1
virus into the community has the potential to cause a global pandemic of epic proportions
that would dwarf the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic that killed over 50 million people,”
read a letter to the Presidential Commission for the Study of Bioethical Issues.
The petition was drafted by the Foundation for Vaccine Research (FVR), a scientific
advocacy group, and numbered world-leading biologists among the 17 signatories,
including Lord May, the former chief science advisor to the UK government,
and Sir Richard Roberts, the recipient of the 1993 Nobel Prize for Medicine,
for genetics research.

## so the other critics - May - also signed that April 1 letter from FVR to Obama
## that links May with Wain-Hobson, and they may have coordinated their
## newspaper statements.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/con...913ethics.html

Hale said the group has talked with close to 200 scientists, most of them virologists,
about the issue since February 2012. "A large majority of them share all of these concerns,
excluding the influenza people,"

A Chinese group is working with H5N1,
a Dutch group is expanding its H5N1 studies to ...H7N7

> the whole ethics issue has been brushed under the carpet
> The FVR wants to see an independent risk assessment of gain-of-function research, Hale said.
> "It really is astonishing that 12 to 15 months into this debate we still don't have an indepenpent
> risk assessment."


http://www.disabled-world.com/disabi...e-research.php
(maybe that's why Racaniello "highly respects" Wain Hobson, R. is engaged in
Polio-vaccination - but not May of Oxford, who is just only a mathematician/Physicist)

(( however, polio is not included in the official FVR - list))
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Old 05-27-2013, 08:32 AM   #4
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That sure is a lot of homework!
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Old 05-27-2013, 09:17 AM   #5
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Old 05-27-2013, 03:35 PM   #6
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remember the discussion about the 1918 strain:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal...l/437794a.html
http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index....142366.10;wap2

H1 was seasonal in 2005 and current 2009flu is even more similar to 1918flu.
And they had vaccines with the 1934 virus.
And it was harder in 2005 with reverse genetics than now

are H1,H2,H3 the only pandemic capable HAs ?
H5,H7,H9 are close, at least.
And some reassortments,mutations can make
normal viruses more virulent.
This is better understood now than in 2005.

While the 1918 virus did not do much to help us
with vaccines or antivirals or NPIs or pandemic
prediction, it has not escaped yet either, afaik.
Nor have terrorists been using or threatening with it.
And luckily ;-) we had mexflu which further protects
us from spainflu.
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Old 05-28-2013, 02:38 AM   #7
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see, what Depperman has to say to this issue ;-)

http://www.science20.com/comments/14...on_Risk_Mapped

could be ~15 pages, if printed on DIN-A4
he must have spent quite some time on this, but he is obviously
not a virologist

capitalist dictatorship sounds like cold war East Germany

almost nimanese
is it common US-slang

some errors (beside the absurd story)

Foucher = Ron Fouchier
Nancy big mouth = Nancy Cox ; this paper from 2009 :
http://jvi.asm.org/content/83/16/8131.full.pdf
references has:
2. Chen, L. M., C. T. Davis, H. Zhou, N. J. Cox, and R. O. Donis. 2008.
Genetic compatibility and virulence of reassortants derived from contemporary
avian H5N1 and human H3N2 influenza A viruses. PLoS Pathog. 4:e1000072
----------------------------------
Maines, T. R., L. M. Chen, Y. Matsuoka, H. Chen, T. Rowe, J. Ortin, A.
Falcon, T. H. Nguyen, Q. Mai le, E. R. Sedyaningsih, S. Harun, T. M.
Tumpey, R. O. Donis, N. J. Cox, K. Subbarao, and J. M. Katz. 2006. Lack of
transmission of H5N1 avian-human reassortant influenza viruses in a ferret
model. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 103:12121–12126
-------------------------------

OK, he mentions this:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB111151791696486534.html

other reassortment studies:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...d.php?t=203696
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Old 05-28-2013, 09:06 AM   #8
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German ethics commision:
http://www.biotechnologie.de/BIO/Nav...listBlId=74462
Biosicherheitsexpertin Petra Dickmann (she did not reply to my email)
Hans-Dieter Klenk
Torsten Wilholt vom Institut für Philosophie der Leibniz Universität Hannover
Rechtswissenschaftler Thomas Würtenberger aus Freiburg
Peter Stähler von der International Association Synthetic Biology (IASB)
Sicherheitsberater Volker Beck
Christof Potthof vom Gen-ethischen Netzwerk
----------------------------

ist doch absurd. Das ganze ist doch ein internationales Problem. Ein Unfall oder ein
Resultat oder ein Grippe-Terror in einem Land wirkt auf die anderen Laender gleichartig.
Daher muss das international entschieden werden und kann nicht von Deutschen
Ethik- und Rechtsprinzipien abhaengen.
Die gleiche Diskussion wird woanders ebenfalls gefuehrt warum das ignorieren,
sich davon abschotten und jetzt ausscliesslich Deutsche in einer lokalen
abgesonderten Diskussion beraten lassen ?
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Old 05-29-2013, 04:02 AM   #9
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http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/con...913ethics.html
17 leading scientists asked Obama's bioethics committee to evaluate the ethics of
experiments designed to increase the transmissibility of H5N1 avian influenza viruses.
signatories include:
Simon Wain-Hobson
Peter Hale
Paul A. Offit
Marc Lipsitch
Richard Roberts
Michael J. Imperiale
Robert May
Robin Weiss
Michael Lederman
Joshua Plotkin
Simon Wain-Hobson had an editorial article in "Nature"
Peter Hale from the FVR gave the interview

-------------------about the FVR:---------------------------------------------------------
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-relea...123459359.html
Fourteen leading scientists and advocacy experts in vaccines and infectious diseases
The leadership of the new Foundation is comprised of:

Galit Alter , PhD, Assistant Professor in Medicine,MIT
Patrice Debre , MD, PhD, Professor of Immunology,Paris
Jose M. Gatell MD, PhD, Professor of Medicine, Barcelona
Peter Hale , Founder, The It's Time Campaign, Washington, DC, USA
Sylvie Le Gall, PhD, Assistant Professor of Medicine, MIT
Ronald C. Desrosiers , PhD, Professor of Microbiology and Molecular Genetics, Harvard
Willem Hanekom , Professor of Immunology; Co-Director, South Africa
Professor Gregory Hussey , Deputy Dean: Research, South Africa
Paul A. Offit , MD, Chief, Philadelphia, USA
Gregory A. Poland , MD, MACP, FIDSA, Rochester, MN, USA
Mauro Schechter , MD, PhD, Professor of Infectious Diseases, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Guillaume Stewart-Jones , PhD, Principal Investigator, Oxford, UK
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson , PhD, Chief, Paris, France
Robin A. Weiss , PhD, Professor of Viral Oncology, London, UK

The Foundation will incorporate the "It's Time Campaign,"
The Campaign will retain its focus of campaigning for an HIV, TB, and malaria vaccine.
The Foundation will advocate for increased funding for vaccine research against all infectious
diseases in the belief that all vaccine research is underfunded and that breakthroughs could
come from any field.

http://itstimecampaign.org/
Peter Hale
Robin Weiss
Simon Wain-Hobson
Jeanie Hareb
Campaign for an HIV, TB and Malaria Vaccine

the it's time campaign is a program of the foundation for vaccine research

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Old 05-29-2013, 04:44 PM   #10
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The genie is way out of the bottle and cannot be put back in. The only question is which is the bigger risk: an accidental release or a deliberate release by evildoers. I am betting on the former given our seemingly limitless ability as a species to fuck up.
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Old 06-19-2013, 01:12 PM   #11
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they got enhanced translation, although the new virus was not yet
(much) more virulent:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2754401/

this is polio, not influenza, but they used the same method for influenza too.
(link to the 2013-paper)
But only the "Min" variant, they don't mention whether they also tested
the flu-Max and how it behaved. You can easily imagine to make flus
more virulent this way, while polio is already virulent, not much to
"gain" there.

> In contrast, PV-Max P1 produced more F-Luc per unit of R-Luc than did the wild type,
> consistent with enhanced translation (Fig. 2B).
>... PV-SD, with 937 mutations in synonymous codons in the P1 region (5). In PV-SD,
> neither codon bias nor codon pair bias was changed, and that virus was not attenuated

>... It is noteworthy that even though PV-Max
> contains overrepresented codons, it is not more virulent than the wild type (Table 1),
> possibly because evolution has already effectively optimized encoding.

or possibly because they specifically chose one PV-Max that was not more virulent
while rejecting all those that were. So to get the paper through NSABB.

So, now we have (at least) 4 methods to make viruses more pandemiclike and/or adapt them to humans
1.) reassortment
2.) inducing known mutations that confer receptor-specifity, stability,temperature adaption
see Fouchier,Kawaoka
3.) passaging , see Fouchier
4.) codon (-pair) optimization , see Wimmer

through a suitable combination and choice of the starting viruses, it should be
possible or even likely to create pandemic viruses.
Much better and faster than nature could ever do it....

Maybe they already have it
Maybe we need to wait for some lab-worker to talk to a newspaper
about it while seeking asylum in a H5-country, where they
better understand the concern.

-----------------------------------------------
in Coleman's thesis
http://dspace.sunyconnect.suny.edu/b...pdf?sequence=3
(160 pages, .pdf)
there is a chart comparing the growth of PV-max with wildtype virus

he concludes that PV-Max has identical growth, despite the enhanced translation.
"Identical" maybe in logarithmic thinking, but from the chart I conclude, that PV-Max
has still ~1.5 times more titers between hours 5 and 25.
If it were flu, would that be sufficient to outcompete existing strains ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Codon_usage_bias
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Old 06-19-2013, 01:43 PM   #12
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Off course it works both ways and this codon replacement looks like an interesting new idea for vaccines creation.
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Old 06-19-2013, 02:30 PM   #13
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it works in mice, but not in humans, I read (unconfirmed)

I would like to see the research that uses this to make flu less virulent.
The "vaccine" that spreads, that is a virus. People would be eager
to catch it in a severe pandemic, so to get immunity.
Even Indonesia can afford that.
But presumably there is not so much to earn with that approach.
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Old 06-19-2013, 03:04 PM   #14
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I found an article in a German newspaper, saying that Wimmer were a candidate for the Nobel price.
Then imagine a manmade pandemic (or several of them, maybe dozends ... ) using that approach.
What honor.

the furious surviving masses may want his head
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Old 06-20-2013, 08:09 AM   #15
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computer modeling how to find pandemic strains:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23777174
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Old 06-23-2013, 04:49 AM   #16
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Nature paper on receptor binding by H7N9
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal...ture12372.html

> Human receptor bound to human H7 HA exits the binding site in a different direction
> to that seen in complexes formed by HAs from pandemic viruses4, 5 and from an
> aerosol-transmissible H5 mutant6.

could they change that direction so to increase transmission ?
They may somehow simulate the process and control by
X-ray cristallography which mutations may contribute in which way.
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Old 06-23-2013, 12:17 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gsgs View Post
blogs on Wain Hobson:

http://www.google.com/search?tbm=blg... 22wain+hobson

Wain-Hobson: Governments must address transmissibility studies ...
www.bioprepwatch.com/ 28. März 2013 von Bryan Cohen
Simon Wain-Hobson, the chair of the Washington, D.C.-based organization, made his
comments less than two months after influenza virologists lifted a voluntary moratorium
on work to make the H5N1 avian flu virus more ...

TWiV 233: We're surrounded - This Week in Virology
www.virology.ws/ - 19. Mai 2013 von Vincent Racaniello
35:00 R: less correlation for lab-viruses 37:00 May nasty —- Wain Hobson—-: R:,
not predictive. D:not 80% predictive, but ferret different than Guinea R: 100K-100M
deaths –> irresponsible. D: better we know it if dangerous ...

Further Feuding on Flu « Philip Alcabes
www.philipalcabes.com/ - 30. März 2013 von Philip Alcabes
An editorial by Simon Wain-Hobson in Nature the other day advances reasons why
scientists should get together to limit GOF research. Wain-Hobson questions the
scientific validity of the predictions such research makes ...

Chinese scientists slammed for creating new 'deadly' influenza ... - RT
rt.com/ - 2. Mai 2013 von RT
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, a prominent virologist at the Pasteur Institute in France,
lauded the work, but also questioned its usefulness. “It's a fabulous piece of virology by
the Chinese group and it's very impressive, but ...

NewsDaily: Fears over man-made bird flu bug
www.newsdaily.com/feed/rss/ - 3. Mai 2013
It was unclear how the flu hybrid, which is not deadly in guinea pigs, would affect people --
but Wain-Hobson warned: "These could be pandemic viruses. "That is, if there was ever
an error of they got out or there was a leak or ...

'Appalling irresponsibility': Scientists create bird flu virus that could ...
www.dailyexpress.co.uk/.../Frankenweenie-review-... 3. Mai 2013
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, an eminent virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris,
said it is very likely that some or all of the new hybrids could pass easily between
humans and possess some or all of the highly lethal ...

Council For Responsible Genetics Blog | 'Appalling irresponsibility ...www.councilforresponsiblegenetics.org/blog/ - 3. Mai 2013 von jeeg
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, an eminent virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris,
said it is very likely that some or all of these hybrids could pass easily between humans
and possess some or all of the highly lethal ...

...Fears for man-made flu bug from China's lab: It's Not just China ...
www.worldwidehippies.com/ - 5. Mai 2013 von Citizen Journalist Exchange
They are now sitting in a freezer,” virology professor Simon Wain-Hobson of
France's Pasteur Institute told AFP. He pointed to a laboratory leak of foot
and mouth, a cattle disease, which caused an outbreak in Britain six years ...

Scientists warn Chinese-made air-transmissible bybrid bird flu puts ...
www.rawstory.com/rs/ - 3. Mai 2013 von Agence France-Presse
It was unclear how the flu hybrid, which is not deadly in guinea pigs, would affect people —
but Wain-Hobson warned: “These could be pandemic viruses. “That is, if there was ever
an error of they got out or there was a leak or ...

Swine Flu - Online Discussion: H7N9 Bird Flu - Discussionwww.swineflu.org/ - 2. Mai 2013
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, an eminent virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris,
said it is very likely that some or all of these hybrids could pass easily between humans
and possess some or all of the highly lethal ...

Chinese Lab Engineers Killer Flu Strains | Drudge Retortwww.drudge.com/ - 3. Mai 2013 von MUSTANG
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, an eminent virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris,
said it is very likely that some or all of these hybrids could pass easily between humans
and possess some or all of the highly lethal ...Study: engineered airborne hybrid flu

contagious between mammals ...www.wired.co.uk/ - 3. Mai 2013 von Liat Clark
Also speaking to the Independent, virologist Simon Wain-Hobson of the Pasteur Institute
in Paris commented: "It's a fabulous piece of virology by the Chinese group and it's very
impressive, but they haven't been thinking ...

The Pandora Report | George Mason Biodefense Communitymasonbiodefense.wordpress.com/ -
3. Mai 2013 von Siddha Hover
Even amongst those scientists who admired the difficulty of the experiment,
there was criticism – ”It's a fabulous piece of virology by the Chinese group
and it's very impressive,” said Professor Wain-Hobson, a renowned ...

April 2013 News | Anthropoceneanthropoceneblog.wordpress.com/ -
27. Apr. 2013 von Robert de Neufville
In Nature, Simon Wain-Hobson called for researchers to continue their moratorium
on “gain-of-function” research into what might make bird flu spread more easily
among humans. The GAO reissued its call for a national ...

N4SA.com | Chinese
scientists slammed for creating new 'deadly ...n4sa.com/ - 2. Mai 2013 von admin
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, a prominent virologist at the Pasteur Institute in France, lauded the work, but also questioned its usefulness. “It's a fabulous piece of virology by the Chinese group and it's very impressive, but ...

A Furor over Chinese Development of New Influenza Strains | Top ...www.topsecretwriters.com/
19. Mai 2013 von SallyPainter
... been estimated that any of the five hybrid flues could realistically have as high as
a 20% fatality rate. That could be as high as 100 million people dead, according to
some virologists, such as Pasteur Institute's Professor Simon Wain-Hobson.GCR

News Summary April 2013 | Global Catastrophic Risk Institutegcrinstitute.org/ -
29. Apr. 2013 von Robert de Neufville
In Nature, Simon Wain-Hobson called for researchers to continue their moratorium
on “gain-of-function” research into what might make bird flu spread more easily
among humans. The GAO reissued its call for a national ...

The Significance of R: Chinese Whisper of an Unfortunate Eventthesignificanceofr.blogspot.com/
4. Mai 2013 von ...
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, an eminent virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris,
said it is very likely that some or all of these hybrids could pass easily between humans
and possess some or all of the highly lethal ...

Nature: H5N1 viral-engineering dangers will not go awayafludiary.blogspot.com/
27. März 2013 von Michael Coston
In a commentary sure to raise the ire of a number of flu researchers - outspoken critic
Simon Wain-Hobson, Professor of virology at the Pasteur Institute in Paris – argues in
the Journal Nature that": `H5N1 GOF work — indeed ...

Latest ArticlesSpace: Is it a spaceship that NASA has observed near Mercury?mediczlreimbursorm.blogspot.com/ - 19. Mai 2013 von bluhubigvo
"says virologist Simon Wain-Hobson of the Pasteur Institute. And even though it is still
unclear how this hybrid could affect humans, "it could be pandemic virus," net present
value calculator he says. "In other words, if someone ...

SCIENTISTS' ALARM: NEW STRAIN OF KILLER FLU CREATED IN ...
thisbluemarble.com/showthread.php?p=347008 - 2. Mai 2013 von NowVoyager
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, an eminent virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris,
said it is very likely that some or all of these hybrids could pass easily between humans
and possess some or all of the highly lethal ...

Scientists warn Obama about creating highly infectious strain of bird ...deadlinelive.info/ -
2. Apr. 2013 von Jack Blood
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, an eminent virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris
who was first to sign the letter, said that the WHO has essentially failed to take the
lead by widening the ethical debate over an area of ...

Lux Libertas –
led lighting and Liberty » 'Appalling irresponsibility': Senior ...www.luxlibertas.com/ -
3. Mai 2013 von John Frisby
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, an eminent virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris,
said it is very likely that some or all of these hybrids could pass easily between humans
and possess some or all of the highly lethal ...H5N1 viral-engineering dangers will not go away -

MicrobeWorldwww.microbeworld.org/index.php?option=com... -27. März 2013
Governments, funders and regulatory authorities must urgently address the risks
posed by gain-of-function research, says Simon Wain-Hobson. Barely two months
after a small group of influenza virologists lifted a moratorium ...

Scientists warn Chinese-made air-transmissible hybrid bird flu puts ...
evans-politics.com/ - 3. Mai 2013 von Paul
Wain-Hobson and others fear the risk may far outweight the scientific value of the research.
The findings held little value for finding a vaccine or treatment that would take years to develop —
probably long after an outbreak, ...

Roland San Juan: China's Creation Of Deadly Super-Flu Could Be A ...
rolandsanjuan.blogspot.com/ - 4. Mai 2013 von --------
It is of no use for vaccine development and the benefit in terms of surveillance for new flu
viruses is oversold,” Professor Wain-Hobson, an expert in virology, told The Independent.
There's definitely an undercurrent of fear that ...

Top Scientists to Obama: Ban Mutation Experiments That Will Make ...
leaksource.wordpress.com/ - 1. Apr. 2013 von LeakSource
The flu community simply hasn't understood that this is a hot-button issue that will not go away,
” Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, one of the signatories, told UK's Independent newspaper.

Chinese Scientists Build Influenza Virus - Business Insiderwww.businessinsider.com/category/apple
3. Mai 2013 von Geoffrey Ingersoll
It is of no use for vaccine development and the benefit in terms of surveillance for new flu viruses
is oversold,” Professor Wain-Hobson, an expert in virology, told The Independent. There's
definitely an undercurrent of fear that ...

avian influenza (51): h5n1/h1n1 hybrids, transmissibility in guinea
pigspandemicinformationnews.blogspot.com/
4. Mai 2013 von Commonground
In a written statement, Wain-Hobson said this study, along with the earlier ones by
Fouchier and Yoshihiro Kawaoka, DVM, PhD, show that many different starting points
and different experimental protocols can lead to a flu ...

CHINESE SCIENTISTS CREATE NEW MUTANT BIRD-FLU VIRUS ...sreaves32.wordpress.com/
4. Mai 2013 von sreavess32
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, an eminent virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris,
said it is very likely that some or all of these hybrids could pass easily between humans
and possess some or all of the highly lethal ...Deadly new bird flu vindicates mutant virus
research, experts say ...

vitals.nbcnews.com/ -
4. Apr. 2013 von Will Waterman, Reuters
Writing in the scientific journal Nature last week, Simon Wain-Hobson, chair of the
Washington-based Foundation for Vaccine Research in the United States, accused
flu researchers of going down a dangerous blind alley

CHINA Developing SECRET influenza VIRUSfinancearmageddon.blogspot.com/ -
4. Mai 2013 von [email protected] (Nicole Bourbaki)
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, an eminent virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris,
said it is very likely that some or all of these hybrids could pass easily between humans
and possess some or all of the highly lethal ...

The Chicken Egg as an Embryo, The Avian Flu and other reasons ...blogs.lt.vt.edu/chickens/ -
5. Mai 2013 von The Chicken, changes everything.
Wain-Hobson and others fear the risk may far outweight the scientific value of the research.
“You do not do these things unless there is some call of extreme emergency,” he said.
“We are encountering a real and present ...

Chinese researchers branded 'appallingly irresponsible' over ...www.theverge.com/ -
3. Mai 2013 von Matt Brian
The effects on humans are unknown, but scientists believe it is very likely that some
— if not all — of the hybrids could be transmitted between humans. While virologist
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson of the Pasteur Institute in ...

All PostsALPSP: at the heart of scholarly publishing: H5N1 research ...blog.alpsp.org/ -
26. März 2012 von Lesley Ogg
An international scientific meeting to discuss the practice and policy of H5N1 research,
with a programme of talks and discussions organised by Professor John Skehel FRS
and Professor Simon Wain-Hobson. The journals ...

Scientists Launch Vaccine Research Foundation « Healthy Living Infopupurafakazazim.com/ -
11. März 2013 von admin
Discoveries will, but not a variable twist this way or that, said founder Professor
Simon Wain-Hobson, Director of the Pasteur Institute. We need new ideas that
take time to come to mind more fresh. We feed our post-doc and ...

Chinese Scientist Creates Super Deadly Virus ~ The Muffin Rises Blogtmrises.blogspot.com/ -
3. Mai 2013 von Dennis
While virologist Professor Simon Wain-Hobson of the Pasteur Institute in Paris believes that
Chen's work is "a fabulous piece of virology," he warns that the research will be of little use
for the development of vaccines or ...

WHY? | [skyqu4ke]skyqu4ke.wordpress.com/ -
2. Mai 2013 von suaven
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, an eminent virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris,
said it is very likely that some or all of these hybrids could pass easily between humans
and possess some or all of the highly lethal ...

Vaccine Research Foundation for Infectious and Tropical Diseaseswww.disabled-world.com/ -
9. Juni 2011
Simon Wain-Hobson of the Institut Pasteur. "We need new ideas – which take time to come –
and fresher minds. We must nurture our post-docs and ensure that they have the resources
they need. Good ideas could come from ...

Meeting/Webcast: H5N1 research - global vaccine ethics and
policycenterforvaccineethicsandpolicy.wordpress.co m/
7. Apr. 2012 von davidrcurry
An international scientific meeting to discuss the practice and policy of H5N1 research,
with a programme of talks and discussions organised by Professor John Skehel FRS
and Professor Simon Wain-Hobson with a particular ...

Scientists launch vaccine research foundation | Vaccines Todaywww.vaccinestoday.eu/ -
24. Juni 2011 von Gary Finnegan
Guillaume Stewart-Jones, PhD, Principal Investigator, Weatherall Institute of Molecular Medicine,
University of Oxford, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford, UK. Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, PhD,
Chief, Molecular Retrovirology, ...

Scientist Solutions - "FRONTIERS OF RETROVIROLOGY: Complex ...www.scientistsolutions.com/ -
18. März 2009
Thierry Heidmann, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif, France Walid Heneine, Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention, Atlanta, USA Simon Wain-Hobson, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
Kuan-Teh Jeang, National Institutes of ...

Deadly new bird flu vindicates controversial research | Yahoo! Healthdaymix.com/category/Health/ -
4. Apr. 2013
Writing in the scientific journal Nature last week, Simon Wain-Hobson, chair of the
Washington-based Foundation for Vaccine Research in the United States, accused
flu researchers of going down a dangerous blind alley.

Chinese researchers criticized for creating new flu strains | Family ...www.worldbulletin.net/ -
4. Mai 2013
Professor Simon Wain-Hobson, a prominent virologist at Paris's Pasteur Institute,
said it is possible that hybrids could easily be transmitted between humans and
be lethal. “It's a fabulous piece of virology by the Chinese group

...Chinese researchers branded 'appallingly irresponsible' over ...en.ekikara7.jp/ -
3. Mai 2013 von admin
While virologist Professor Simon Wain-Hobson of the Pasteur Institute in Paris believes
that the Chen's work is a fabulous piece of virology, he warns that the research will be
of little use for development of vaccines or the ...

Mice made from induced stem cells « Welcome to Kupmankupman.wordpress.com/ -
26. Juli 2009 von kupman
Governments, funders and regulatory authorities must urgently address the risks
posed by gain-of-function research, says Simon Wain-Hobson. Simon Wain-Hobson;
Ecology: Primates hunting leaves forest scar. By hunting

...Cape Town in the News on 19 October, 2012 - My Cape Townmycapetown.co.za/news/ -
19. Okt. 2012 von Alan
Doctors in Cape Town ChallengeThis is CornwallIt is expected to take eight months
before Daniel Nuth, 28, Sebastian Wallace, 26, and Richard Wain-Hobson, 25, reach
their final goal, Cape Town. They ha more…

Chinese Scientists Slammed for Creating New 'Deadly' Influenza ...documentthetruth.com/
3. Mai 2013 von admin
According to Wain-Hobson, hybrid viral experiments such as Chen's could not, in the end,
be extrapolated to determine the danger to humans. “We don't know the pathogenicity
[lethality] in man and hopefully we will never ...
Thanks for such good information. There is lot more to do in this prospect.. I will gather much more information and will share it soon.. Thanks again
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Old 06-24-2013, 01:34 PM   #18
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Old 06-26-2013, 04:07 AM   #19
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Vopr Virusol. 2013 Jan-Feb;58(1):11-7.
[New cold-adapted donor strains for live influenza vaccine].
[Article in Russian] [No authors listed] Abstract

Cold-adapted (CA) strains A/Krasnodar/35 and B/Victoria/63 were isolated using passages
of A/Krasnodar/101/59 and B/Victoria/2/87 wild type strains at low temperatures.
The resulting CA strains possessed TS and CA phenotypes and had a reduced ability
to reproduce in mouse lungs and nasal turbinates. They displayed a high protective efficacy
in experiments on mice. The two CA strains reproduced well in chick embryos and MDCK
cell line without change of TS and CA markers. The CA A/Krasnodar/35 strain during passages
at low temperature acquired 13 mutations in the 6 internal genes, 8 of those mutations led to
amino acid changes. The CA B/Victoria/63 strain acquired 8 mutations in the internal genes,
6 of which led to amino acid changes. The intranasal vaccination of mice with the CA A/Krasnodar/35
strain led to a transitory suppression of various lymphocyte subpopulations, as well as to an increase
in the number of some other cell types. The CA strains in question may be used in the future as
attenuation donors for live influenza vaccines.

PMID: 23785755 [PubMed - in process]
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23785755

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

makes you wonder whether it's possible to use duck or chicken viruses
("warm adapted" to the temperature of 41C in birds)
and then cold-adapt them in the lab, so they transmit better in humans.
That would be much easier than the passaging in ferrets
as used in the debated Fouchier experiments
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Old 06-27-2013, 03:04 AM   #20
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so, I'm currently more concerned about one or multiple severe pandemics in the next decades
than I was in 2006.
And the reason is : influenza research.

Shame on me, that I didn't realize this risk earlier, I was even hoping on influenza research
to protect us from a naturally occurring pandemic.,

I somehow missed the discussion about the publishing of the 1918 virus, I had only
entered flublogia in Dec.2005.

Then in 2011 I didn't feel so concerned yet about the H5N1 research, yes, they made it
transmissible, but still less efficient and only in ferrets.

I knew, that they could implement single mutations in the lab into existing viruses
but wasn't really aware that they could "easily" create whole viruses just from the sequences alone.
(reverse genetics)

Now Wimmer et.al. are creating these viruses with hundreds of computed mutations,
some labs are checking all the 256 possible combinations of reassorting 2 strains.
Then they are passaging the viruses in cells and animals to improve them,
but are usually selfrestricting or not publishing this. (Fouchier: no, we are not
planning to increase the passages now...)

We've had 4 pandemics now that we can watch, where we have the sequences
and reconstruct how it emerged : 1957,1968,1977,2009 plus several new
introductions into swine or poultry, which may follow a similar mechanism.
Although we have the 1918 virus, that doesn't really count since we have no previous viruses,
we don't really know where it came from, how it emerged.

Now, If some advanced lab had all the flu-sequences that were available in 2008,
but nothing from 2009 or later and they didn't know about mexflu, and they had
lots of money and animals and humans or some good human imitations to test,
would they have found the mexflu virus with its pandemic potential ?

I think, yes. And in some decades we will probably be able to find such viruses with
pandemic potential.
How many viruses and reassortments would they have needed to test to find mexflu ?
More than 10 but less than 10000, probably less than 1000, IMO.

In 1957 or 1968 it should even have been easier to find these potentially pandemic viruses
in wild birds and the way how they might reassort with existing flu.
The diversity was lower then.
Just one new HA and PB1 from wild birds out of the pool of maybe some hundred circulating ones


And 1977 was almost trivial to predict, the strain existed already.

Now, all these pandemics were not so bad e.g. when compared with 1918,
but but from what we know from all the studies, manipulating the virulence
should be much easier than manipulating the transmissibility.
It's also easier and cheaper to test.

It should even be possible to introduce some mutations so to make existing seasonal
strains more virulent. Sounds easier to me than screating a new pandemic strain.
Ok, we have immunity to seasonal strains but this is somehow limited, it didn't prevent
new variants as in the Fujian 2002-2004 H3N2-semi pandemic.
And we could use old strains, H3N2 from the 80s, H1N1 from 1918 etc., or H2N2 from 1957
against which immunity is no longer so good.


I do not see how to really control this knowledge, how to prevent it from being used for evil purposes.
We can maybe delay it by secrecy and hope to be prepared, to have countermeasures
by this timely advantage of knowledge. But eventually presumably most labs and countries
will learn it and it will be cheap (less than a billion $, maybe only some millions) and commonly
known how to create pandemic flus.


It's a mystery with so many planets out there why we found no signs of intelligent life yet.
It had been speculated that intelligent life is doomed to fail, that it will destruct itself
eventually. This was the subject of many books during cold war and the authors
mainly thought about nuclear wars as the cause. But manmade diseases and accidental
lab-escapes should be a better candidate. It almost killed the American native population
and only recent measures and protection stopped that.
Then we had the plague in medieval Europe and other diseases which now are controlled
by vaccines and antivirals (for some reason this doesn't work so well for flu)
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Old 06-28-2013, 03:09 AM   #21
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and another "promising" method how to help creating pandemic viruses:

http://jvi.asm.org/content/87/13/7200.abstract
one major hurdle for avian viruses is their poor polymerase activity in human cells
overcome this by mutations in segments 1,2,3,5,8
broad spectrum of polymerase adaptive mutations can act collectively to overcome this defect

-----------------------------------------
it can't be so difficult now, with all that knowledge.
And maybe they already found some candidates but won't publish it,
after they "learned" in 2011 about the possible negative feedback
for their research from the press, the public and the regulators.
At that time there was discussion of measures among the researchers
how to better handle this in future, how to not alert the press.
(Who cares about the possible pandemic disasters ? Not their problem.
Only maybe useful to get attention and funding )

-----------------------------------------

"the [research-] system is broken"

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1557753/
(2006)
http://www.fiercebiotech.com/story/h...ken/2008-04-24

================================================== ====


I've been wondering why such research is nationalized, but then published and everyone benefits.
There must be some system in place which "rewards" the publishing and encourages the
national funding systems.

why not internationalize the research in the first place under the auspices of UNO,WHO ?
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Old 07-02-2013, 08:33 AM   #22
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Re: CIDRAP- WHO report: Global guidance on dual-use research needed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

> but that a global agreement or set of rules is unlikely to be the answer

> countries formulate their own policies and procedures for managing DURC

> Although establishment of a legally binding global agreement or regulation is theoretically
> possible, such an approach would be expensive, slow, likely impractical, and would not
> necessarily yield the desired results,"

> the WHO will work with "member states and others to assess how best to encourage
> effective approaches."

> We have been so involved in nCoV [novel coronavirus] and then H7N9 that I don't know
> if there has been time for a lot of anything else," Hartl said.

### ahh, no time. apparently they consider this less important than coronavirus or H7N9
### (is this a Hartl-risk assessment ?)

from the full report at http://www.who.int/csr/durc/durc_feb...mtg_report.pdf

1, There was general agreement that WHO should facilitate a broader discussion.

### I think WHO should involve the public in this fundamental discussion.
### They should establish an internet discussion forum where interested
### people from all countries can participate without having to travel to Geneva meetings.


5, The potential risks of full and open communication would be expected to outweigh
the benefits in only the rarest circumstances.

### which we have here. NSABB got involved (rare)

6. The inventory, sharing, and, where needed, development, of guiding principles, toolkits, ´
best practices and other forms of technical assistance would help countries formulate
their own policies and procedures for managing DURC. Although establishment of a
legally binding global agreement or regulation is theoretically possible, such an approach
would be expensive, slow, likely impractical and would not necessarily yield the desired benefits.

6, unevenly implemented across countries, they are not coordinated or harmonized and none
of them sufficiently addresses DURC

6, critical gap

7, It was acknowledged that at times a certain amount of tension or distrust has
characterized the relationship between the security and scientific communities.
The inability of security experts to share specific information about the likelihood
of misuse and harm from research findings creates a level of asymmetry in the
relationship between the two groups.

7, It was observed that a very similar challenge was faced by public health scientists
working on severe emerging diseases, and that there might be ways to develop a
common language and compatible methodologies for describing risk. An optimally
functioning relationship between scientists and security experts requires mutual
engagement to bridge gaps in communication, collaboration and culture.

8, The lack of standardized definitions and terminology that are universally accepted
across sectors and stakeholders leads to confusion and misunderstanding as does the
lack of harmonization among existing guidelines, regulations, codes of conduct and the like.


### than "common language and compatible methodologies for describing risk" does exist.
### It's called probability theory and risks are being assigned numbers, called probabilities.








[further quotes and comments to be added here later]

Re: CIDRAP- WHO report: Global guidance on dual-use research needed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

the whole way how this was handled gave me the impression that there was a strategy
to "dilute" the whole concern with introductions, general descriptions to compare the concern
with previous concerns and general blabla about methology while avoiding to investigate
the issues directly, to actually assess the risk.


I think we should seriously consider and discuss the option to all this influenza
gain of function research, all what can lead to pandemic strains, as secret.
Like military research on new weapons. But on an international level.
Only some few labs are involved and they are being internationally surveilled
to keep things secret that are critical to gof knowledge.
That is the typical reassortment,passenging,reverse genetics experiemts
that lead to more transmissible viruses but have little use for vaccine
or antiviral production.
The general risk, as interpreted from the secret experiments can still be
communicated, but not the actual viruses and strains that are being created,
that pose the main danger. Some vaccine producers could be involved, if this
knowledge is important for timely prepandemic vaccines, but afaics
this is currently probably not a big issue.

We must have a plan, what to do when someone creates
a (likely) pandemic strain. We won't want to disclose that strain, of course.
But should we talk about it at all ? There certainly would be a need to prepare
but also a curiosity to figure out what that strain is, to repeat the process
and independently create it from hints.
Or to use the idea to create other pandemic strains.
Or just to intensify the search for other pandemic strains

Once we (might) have created such a pandemic strain of great virulence,
say comparable with 1918flu (as it was on the current immunological background
of that time.) that might be a red flag and a point of re-discussion.
Most people seem to consider this unlikely and would have to rethink once
it (might) happen. But -just hypothetically if you want- what could and should
we do then ?
Shut down all flu-labs, destroy all flu viruses, strongly forbid and control the possession
and work on these things worldwide ? Stop science, even in similar nondangerous areas
like creating new cold-viruses ? IMO : yes.

Through big international efforts and investments we had been able to advance
science. Shouldn't we be able to stop it, when necessary ?
It just needs the political will to do so. And the international consensus for it
should be established now.
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Old 07-02-2013, 03:47 PM   #23
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If you know how to assemble it you know how to take it apart or neutralize it which is the ultimate goal of the research.

If there is a bigger chance of pandemics then it is because the experiment in nature is continuing. Of course this is not just nature but also us with a lot of unsafe farming practices.

A fine new pandemic candidate popped up in China this year while H5N1 is not gone from either Egypt or Indonesia (as we can tell from the incident in the Austrian airport).

Another death in Cambodia too.

The dual use restrictions and all time wasted talking to politicians about it are a pain and a waste. All knowledge anybody needs is already out there.
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Old 07-03-2013, 12:55 AM   #24
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My guess is, there are hundreds of candidates out there from 16 HA-types.
Most of them need some "adaptions", some reassortments, and even then
maybe only some dozend can create a pandemic and most of these would be
not very virulent. Only some million deaths.
That leaves maybe a handful of 1918-like candidates or worse.
Depending on the current world's immunization status.
How to find them ? And should we really try ?
Nature has somehow limited resources here. It needs coinfection in humans with rare strains
usually only seen in mallards. (involving ~10 of the HAs while only 2 with variants
are currently circulating in humans)
Then other favourable conditions are needed,spread. We see such successful reassortments
in related,compatible viruses maybe a few times per season. And that is with a whole wave.

In the lab we do have all these viruses available and can combine, reassort, optimize,
passage them to find the candidates. In different types of cell cultures, in mice,
guinea pigs,swine,ferrets - but not humans for ethical reasons.
However, we are improving the methods, there are advancements.
We are close to understanding what the mechanism is, what it takes to generate pandemic
viruses. And if not, we can now test lots of candidates in short times.
See those recent reassortment experiments, where they tested all 128 candidates !
Fouchier passaged 10 times in ferrets, he only stopped this approach because the
discussion set in. Maybe they are still passaging secretly, who knows.
Then we have the Wimmer-codon optimization and other methods, that nature
can't do.

There are these pandemic candidates out there, we know it from history.
How hard are they to find ? The process was not very nature-friendly
in 1918,1957,1968,2009 let alone in 1977. It involved rare strains that
usually are not co-circulating.
1977 came from a lab
2009 involved Eurasian and American swine viruses, the first time that we saw them reassorting,
usually they are separated, quarantined.
1918 came from wild birds, but adapting and refining and reassorting sonce 10,20 years
in humans and/or swine.
1957,1968 fetched some new segments from rare strains from wild birds probably in China.
Why were those strains suitable,compatible and others, more common strains
are not ? Testing just a lot of candidates should help us to figure out
(if we want to figure it out)

This figuring out process does not help us much with vaccines, antivirals.
Those researchers and companies need different approaches, they are not doing these experiments.
It's just for predicting the possible candidates, the likelyhood.
Ahh, what I had been asking for since 2006 .... better pandemic predictions.
But now I discovered how much this prediction-research helps us to create pandemics in the lab.

I didn't really know about reverse genetics (until monotreme told me in 2011/2),
how cheap it is, that they can create
viruses with hundreds of mutations from the sequences alone.
I knew that implementing a few mutations or passaging was common, but still complicated and
restricted to a few labs. The 1918 discussion was before my time ... yes, they were experimenting
with that virus in mice, they must have got it through reverse genetics - how else.
But high biosafety was required, we have vax, after p2009 we are somehow immune to it

Then the process how the 2011/2 discussion was handled, how biased they were, how they avoided
an independent risk-assessment (as they did in 2009)
Then the new papers showing much advancement despite the morandum.
Then H7N9 giving another promising candidate to play with. They are probably testing
H7N9 reassortments (+passaging) in ferrets ... what did they find, will they tell us
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Old 07-04-2013, 08:06 AM   #25
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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23820391
Here, we present a novel, experimentally validated, computational method for
determining influenza virus antigenicity on the basis of hemagglutinin (HA)
sequence Our method was applied to H3N2 seasonal influenza viruses and
identified the 13 previously recognized H3N2 antigenic clusters and the
antigenic drift event of 2009 that led to a change of the H3N2 vaccine strain
IMPORTANCE This report supplies a novel method for quantifying antigenic
distance and identifying antigenic variants using sequences alone.
This method will be useful in influenza vaccine strain selection by significantly
reducing the human labor efforts for serological characterization and will
increase the likelihood of correct influenza vaccine candidate selection.

-----------------------------------------

this is another typical example of dual-use research and author bias
by not mentioning the evil use, not evaluating risks vs. benefits.

Antigenic prediction would be very useful to select/choose
possible pandemic viruses, or just particularly bad seasonal strains
like the one in USA 2003/4 or 2012/3
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