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Old 09-06-2014, 11:33 PM   #51
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Agreed - it is just about doubling every month, maybe even a bit faster than that.
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Old 09-06-2014, 11:56 PM   #52
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4.5 months to reach the first thousand cases. A month later - 2,000 cases. Thirteen more days brought us to 3,000 cases...
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Old 09-09-2014, 11:13 AM   #53
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Quote:
Ebola death toll rises to at least 2,296

The death toll from the Ebola outbreak has now risen to at least 2,296 out of 4,293 cases, the World Health Organisation has announced.

Sierra Leone has appealed to the international community to provide more funds and care workers to help in the fight against the spread of the deadly virus.

Information Minister Alpha Kanu told ITV News the country was doing all it could but needed more help.

The country says it will impose a nationwide four-day lockdown from 18-21 September in a bid to halt the spread of the disease.
http://www.itv.com/news/story/2014-0...t-least-2-296/
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Old 09-09-2014, 11:20 AM   #54
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WHO September 8th Roadmap Update:

http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/1...4_eng.pdf?ua=1

Quote:
1. COUNTRIES WITH WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE TRANSMISSION

As of 6 September 20142, 4269 (probable, confirmed and suspected) cases and 2288 deaths have been reported in the current outbreak of Ebola virus disease by the Ministries of Health of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

The increase in cases continues to accelerate in countries with widespread
and intense transmission: Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.**

-----------

2. COUNTRIES WITH AN INITIAL CASE OR CASES, OR WITH LOCALIZED TRANSMISSION

In Nigeria, there have been 21 cases and 8 deaths. In Senegal, one case has been confirmed and there have been no Ebola deaths or further suspected cases .
One thing to note is that the WHO is listing 2 suspect cases in Senegal in addition to the one confirmed (in the table below the text above).
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Old 09-11-2014, 08:04 AM   #55
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Might be an interesting call to listen in on. From Ninman's site:

Quote:
From: <[email protected]>
Date: September 10, 2014 at 10:50:25 AM EDT
To: undisclosed-recipients:;
Subject: Invitation to a WHO Virtual Press Conference on Ebola response
10 September 2014
Media Advisory WHO/19

Invitation to a WHO Virtual Press Conference on Ebola response

WHAT: Press conference on support to Ebola affected countries

Last month WHO issued a roadmap for scaled-up response to the Ebola outbreak. The goal is to stop Ebola transmission in affected countries within 6-9 months and prevent international spread. Responding to the World Health Organization (WHO) call, the Cuban Government will be announcing their commitment to help control the outbreak in West Africa. Rolling Eyes

WHEN: A virtual Press conference (VPC) will take place on Friday 12 September at 9h30 CEST.

WHERE: Geneva-based journalists may participate in person. The venue is the WHO Library Room, WHO Headquarters.

Journalists outside Geneva may dial in, and dial-in numbers are listed below.

Speakers:
Dr Margaret Chan, WHO Director- General
Dr Roberto Morales Ojeda, Minister of Public Health, Cuba

WHO media contacts:
Christy Feig, WHO Director of Communications, E-mail: [email protected],; Mobile: +41.79.251.7055
Fadéla Chaib, WHO Spokesperson, Telephone: + 41 22 791 3228; Mobile:+ 41 79 475 55 56;Email: [email protected]
Tarik Jasarevic, Media officer; Telephone: +41 22 791 5099; Mobile+41 793 676 214; E-mail: [email protected]
Spanish interviews:
Maricel Seeger, WHO communications officer , Email: [email protected], Mobile: +54 91149167965
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Old 09-12-2014, 09:31 AM   #56
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Latest Road Map - note this is a one day difference in reporting time from the report in post #54

Looks like some suspected deaths from Liberia were removed, so total number of deaths is down as of Sept. 7th

Of note is that in several press conferences today, Chan puts the numbers at 4784/>2400 as of today, again with the caveat that Liberia is significantly under reported.


http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/1...3_eng.pdf?ua=1
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Old 09-12-2014, 09:53 AM   #57
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Lordie, I hadn't seen today's numbers yet. We're close to 100 reported cases per day. Is it a safe bet that the real numbers at least double that?

Man, by Monday, we'll officially be at 5,000+ cases & I'm thinking, as deaths catch up to cases at a well over 50% death rate, 2,500 or so deaths.
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Old 09-15-2014, 08:13 AM   #58
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Data specific to Sierra Leone:

http://health.gov.sl/wp-content/uplo...er-13-2014.pdf

EBOLA OUTBREAK UPDATES---September 13, 2014

 DISCHARGED CASES
 Total Survived and Released Patients = 313

 NEW CASES
 New Confirmed cases = 31, as follows:
Kailahun = 0 Kenema = 1, Kono = 0
Bombali = 9, Kambia = 0, Koinadugu = 0, Port Loko =10, Tonkolili = 1
Bo = 1, Bonthe = 0, Moyamba = 0, Pujehun = 0
Western Area Urban = 8, Western Area Rural = 1

 CUMULATIVE CASES
 Cumulative confirmed cases = 1,432, as follows:
Kailahun = 508, Kenema = 397, Kono =15
Bombali =82, Kambia =3, Koinadugu =0, Port Loko =142, Tonkolili = 30
Bo = 75, Bonthe = 1, Moyamba = 17, Pujehun = 10
Western Urban = 102, Western Rural = 50

 CUMULATIVE DEATHS
 Total cumulative confirmed death is 459, as follows:
Kailahun = 186, Kenema = 217, Kono = 2
Bombali = 6, Kambia = 1, Koinadugu = 0, Port Loko = 16, Tonkolili = 2
Bo = 16, Bonthe = 1, Moyamba = 6, Pujehun = 1
Western Area Urban = 3, Western Area Rural = 2

 Probable cases = 37
 Probable deaths = 37
 Suspected cases = 117
 Suspected deaths = 11
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Old 09-16-2014, 01:18 PM   #59
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I'm a little frightened by what is not here. The numbers for Liberia have not been update since 9/9. One can conclude that the numbers in Liberia over the last week have been pretty horrific, or that nobody is counting anymore, or both.



WHO: EBOLA RESPONSE ROADMAP UPDATE
16 September 2014


http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/1...14_eng.pdf?ua=

COUNTRIES WITH WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE TRANSMISSION
Cases: 4963 Deaths: 2453

% of cases in last 21 days: 47% (note that Liberia and SL are both running at about 60%)


COUNTRIES WITH AN INITIAL CASE OR CASES, OR WITH LOCALIZED TRANSMISSION
Cases: 22 Deaths: 8

% of cases in last 21 days: 32%
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Old 09-16-2014, 08:45 PM   #60
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Looks like the 2 suspect cases in Senegal cleared.

I'm not buying any numbers out of Liberia - unless someone well kitted out in PPE is literally walking the streets of Monrovia, counting the sick & dead, then marking them with a dye tage so they don't get double counted!

I don't think anyone there is being counted unless they're in the 'care system' is some way. I suspect 2/3 of cases are NOT counted - pure WAG on my [art based on numbers admitted daily being matched by those 'officially' turned away & me adding that many ,for those who didn't bother they knew they couldn't get a bed.
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Old 09-17-2014, 03:00 AM   #61
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Do we have a mean days elapsed between frank symptom onset and death? I'd like to see a graph plotted- date on the X axis, case count on the Y axis. Against that, plot a second line of death count by date, shifted left on the x (date) axis by the mean days elapsed from frank symptoms until death. That would project a more accurate mortality rate by accounting for the fact that many current cases aren't yet dead but will be. The exponential case count growth is causing an artificially low mortality rate figure. This wouldn't be bang on by any means, but it would be approximate.
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Old 09-17-2014, 06:58 AM   #62
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Best I can find find is 16 days:

http://healthmap.org/site/diseasedai...outbreak-91014
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Old 09-17-2014, 08:48 AM   #63
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Bri, your mom's link says: The lag-adjusted PFC - about 80-85% - is significantly higher than the unadjusted PFC but is consistent with recent fatality estimates by Médecins Sans Frontières.
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Old 09-17-2014, 12:53 PM   #64
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Ah, got it, thanks. Damn, I didn't think it would be that long a lag... That's ugly.
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Old 09-17-2014, 01:03 PM   #65
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Old 09-17-2014, 01:07 PM   #66
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Sorry - didn't mean for that to be a hit & run post without info but I had to leave for an appointment.

It's a surprisingly long lag time; I would have expected 6-8 days at most. What this means is possible a few days where a patient, can more or less see to their own needs - drink, eat a bit, stagger to the bathroom, then a week & more of steadily worsening symptoms requiring more & more care. The last few days... bleeding & worse, followed by death. That's a long time to be shedding virus, especially for any being cared for in the community by family.

I'm going to be looking at the latest numerical increase in cases & seeing if roughly 55% of those are reported dead in about 2 weeks.
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Old 09-18-2014, 12:32 PM   #67
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New SitRep out, data up to Sept 14. No shock, things in Liberia, Monrovia specifically are accelerating.

http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/1...itrep4_eng.pdf

WHO: Ebola Response Roadmap Situation Report
18 September 2014


COUNTRIES WITH WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE TRANSMISSION
Cases: 5335 Deaths: 2622


% of cases in last 21 days: 45%


COUNTRIES WITH AN INITIAL CASE OR CASES, OR WITH LOCALIZED TRANSMISSION
Cases: 22 Deaths: 8

% of cases in last 21 days: 32%


Note about data collection in Liberia:

Quote:
In the the past few months, staff from WHO, US CDC and other partners have been working closely with the
Liberian Ministry of Health to improve data collection and to integrate sources of data to provide the best
possible picture of this rapidly evolving outbreak. Some of this work includes consolidating several different
databases and cross-checking numbers of cases reported by the Government of Liberia against cases from
laboratory test results. During this process, many cases previously classified as probable and suspected are
being reclassified, while at the same time approximately 100 previously unreported cases have been found.
These new figures will be published soon, and will reflect significant improvements in data collection, and
therefore provide a more accurate understanding of the situation.
Liberia remains the country worst
affected by the epidemic.
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Last edited by Exodia; 09-18-2014 at 12:39 PM.
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Old 09-18-2014, 07:43 PM   #68
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I've spent the last half hour or so counting working/partly functional facilities of the types described by WHO. Slow progress there & in some instances - regression.

Treatment centers: I LESS fully dunctioning center & 1 partially working treatment center LESS than last week.

Referral/Isolation: I less fully functional, 2 fewer partly operational referral centers.

Labs: Down to 4, (from 5), fully working lab facilities but up from 3 to 21 partly working labs - that's great news for ID purposes.

Contact Tracing: 5 fewer teams working fullt; up 3 partly working ones.

Up 7 partly working burial teams - still none described as fully operational.

Social mobilization: Up to 4 from 1 fully functional team, down one in terms of partly working ones.
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Old 09-20-2014, 08:31 AM   #69
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I just had a strange thought I would like to share: there have been statements of a huge surge in cases that are/were supposed to show up. Could this surge simply be because they are opening new clinics.... and that as soon as any clinic is opened - it is overwhelmed (producing new numbers "out of the shadows").
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Old 09-20-2014, 08:34 AM   #70
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If new clinics were currently being opened, I'd agree.
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Old 09-20-2014, 10:05 AM   #71
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Andy, there was a small blurb in the last WHO update about better data collection and reporting being done in Liberia. I think that will bring to light a lot of uncounted cases. I also think the door-to-door in SL will give a bump to the numbers as will.
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Old 09-22-2014, 08:15 AM   #72
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Quote:
WHO: Ebola death toll rises to more than 2,700

A total of 2,793 people have now died from Ebola, the World Health Organisation said.

The organisation reported 5,762 cases across five countries, but said the Ebola outbreak was "pretty much contained" in Senegal and Nigeria
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-...ises-to-2-793/
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Old 09-22-2014, 04:00 PM   #73
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WHO: EBOLA RESPONSE ROADMAP UPDATE
22 September 2014

COUNTRIES WITH WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE TRANSMISSION
Cases: 5843 Deaths: 2803


% of cases in last 21 days: data not in this report

Cases and deaths have been reported in the current outbreak of EVD as at 20 September 2014 by the Ministry of Health of Guinea, as at 17 September 2014 by the Ministry of Health of Liberia, and as at 19 September 2014 by the Ministry of Health of Sierra Leone

Exposure of health-care workers (HCWs) to EVD continues to be an alarming feature of this outbreak. As of 22 September 2014, 348 HCWs are known to have developed EVD (67 in Guinea, 174 in Liberia, 11 in Nigeria, and 96 in Sierra Leone). 186 HCWs have died as a result of EVD infection (35 in Guinea, 85 in Liberia, 5 in Nigeria, and 61 in Sierra Leone).

http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/1...4_eng.pdf?ua=1
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Old 09-22-2014, 05:08 PM   #74
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Teased these #s from earlier in the thread-

Aug. 31st WHO report-3685 cases, 1841 deaths...

Sept. 22 5843 cases, 2803 deaths

Cases in the 3 weeks-2158 cases, 962 deaths

Percentage of total-36.9% of all cases, and 34.3% of all deaths in the past 3 weeks...

Using the Sept. 8th total cases number/Sept. 22nd total deaths number (giving us 2 weeks to resolve cases) the mortality rate is 65.3%.

There does seem to be a slight dip in the mortality rate (I think the 2 week gap number was running around 70%) even the official WHO numbers divided up show a mortality rate of 48%... something may be changing again...

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Old 09-23-2014, 07:30 AM   #75
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Given the numbers of people and bodies discovered in SL with their sweep, take the official numbers with a grain of salt. Given the poor and under reporting, I would say for these purposes the difference between 65 and 70 CFR is statically insignificant.
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