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Old 02-10-2017, 11:19 AM   #1
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Default The AI Threat Isnít Skynet. Itís the End of the Middle Class

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At a time when the Trump administration is promising to make America great again by restoring old-school manufacturing jobs, AI researchers aren’t taking him too seriously. They know that these jobs are never coming back, thanks in no small part to their own research, which will eliminate so many other kinds of jobs in the years to come, as well. At Asilomar, they looked at the real US economy, the real reasons for the “hollowing out” of the middle class. The problem isn’t immigration—far from it. The problem isn’t offshoring or taxes or regulation. It’s technology. ... Machines aren’t just taking the place of humans on the assembly line. They’re doing a better job.
https://www.wired.com/2017/02/ai-thr...-middle-class/
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Old 02-10-2017, 12:41 PM   #2
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Not just AI. Jason has been playing with 3D printing. I saw what was being produced and at first I thought, ehhh... great. A thousand dollar machine that lets us make cheap chinese plastic crap at home. But honestly, I am a convert. The machine is small, makes less noise than my washing machine, and uses inexpensive filament that comes in a variety of hard and bendable plastics, plastic wood, and metals.

There's a website -thingiverse.com - where you can download the code to make items, and there are websites where you can do 3D modeling to make your own designs (and then upload them to thingiverse and share). The designs are only as good as the designer, but the possibilities and what people are doing now with the technology, is very exciting.

Sanding blocks using plastic wood:


Statues in whatever finish you would like:


A working wind turbine:


You can make whatever you want, in your house, and in many cases for much less than you would pay in a store.

The vase I added as an attachment was printed in our house using a translucent non-toxic plastic that is made from corn. Last night Jason made a holder for my headphones. I have a list of things I want.

Of course this is going to impact manufacturing. In 20-30 years we'll shop for what we want on a variety of thingiverse sites, click "print", and a beeper will go off when our new lamp or soup bowl or coffee filter is ready.
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Old 02-10-2017, 12:45 PM   #3
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In the end, no one left Asilomar with a sure way of preventing economic upheaval. “Anyone making confident predictions about anything having to do with the future of artificial intelligence is either kidding you or kidding themselves,” McAfee says.
It isn't going to be like anyone thinks it will be.

As it ever has been change is the only constant.
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Old 02-10-2017, 01:21 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by flourbug View Post
Of course this is going to impact manufacturing. In 20-30 years we'll shop for what we want on a variety of thingiverse sites, click "print", and a beeper will go off when our new lamp or soup bowl or coffee filter is ready.
I attended a web based legal seminar on this very issue, (Legal issues surrounding 3D printing/Additive Manufacturing.)

Who owns the designs?
How do you monetize the designs?
How do you enforce misuse of your designs?
How do you enforce misuse of your intellectual trademarks? (Action figures from movies, etc.)
Who is responsible if injury occurs because of your designs?
Are you responsible (civilly) if someone commits a crime with your design? (Say a knife design or one of a firearm receiver?)
Will/Can the government require you to hard code restrictions on certain kinds of designs. (Firearms receivers, burglary tools, etc. similar to the hardcoding which has happened to preclude copying/printing of currency.)

It is way in the future but I think companies are thinking something along the lines of a Replicator on Star Trek. You buy a 3D printer and it gets connected back via your home network.

You want to print an action figure, vase, whatever. You select the design, the plans come from the company, you are charged a one time use license fee, and there is some kind of cryptographic handshake with the printer, and out comes the product.
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Old 02-10-2017, 01:26 PM   #5
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It isn't going to be like anyone thinks it will be.

As it ever has been change is the only constant.
That's true. But we can observe broad trends, and with this one the writing is on the wall. How many jobs will be lost with driverless cars and trucks? Five, ten million?

Once the machines can design and build other machines, we are screwed. Not AI singularity screwed mind you, but "one person can do the work of thousands" screwed.
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Old 02-10-2017, 02:03 PM   #6
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You want to print an action figure, vase, whatever. You select the design, the plans come from the company, you are charged a one time use license fee, and there is some kind of cryptographic handshake with the printer, and out comes the product.
It is not in the future. That's exactly how Jason printed his vase. Go to a website, click print, vase can be taken out of the printer a few hours later.

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Are you responsible (civilly) if someone commits a crime with your design? (Say a knife design or one of a firearm receiver?)
Will/Can the government require you to hard code restrictions on certain kinds of designs. (Firearms receivers, burglary tools, etc. similar to the hardcoding which has happened to preclude copying/printing of currency.)
3D design will definitely be a career of the future. But it is going to be a common skill and only a career for specialists. YOU will be able to make things in your home - if you can sketch it out or take a picture of it, you can have it. Specialists will come into play when knoweldge or skills are needed in addition to basic technical abilities. The fact that many women own sewing machines and can hem drapes doesn't inhibit the sale of millions of patterns every year. Now imagine being able to take a picture of a dress you like and your sewing machine makes it for you. That's 3D printing.

Oculus has programs that allow you to create a virtual item and then print it. Professional sculptors and model makers are creating amazing things in a virtual world.



You can take a camera and walk around an object taking pictures from different angles and your 3D printer will print a replica. ANYTHING. (This won't work if you are printing a gun, but it could if you take the gun apart and print copies of each piece.)



You know how Google lets you look at your home from different angles? You can 3D print your home... you can 3D print your entire town.

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Old 02-10-2017, 02:04 PM   #7
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BIL bought his 13 yr old son a 3D printer two years ago for Christmas. He and son are working on a proto-type invention for DH, that is for determing how to square up large areas for construction purposes.

I think those printers are an awesome boost for creativity. Now they need one that can create from metals.

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Old 02-10-2017, 02:13 PM   #8
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Now they need one that can create from metals.
They have them... but they are very expensive. Shapeways.com will take your 3D design and print it in a variety of metals. There are several kickstarters and startups working on bringing the price down enough to make it feasible for hobbyists, and some home 3D printers are able to print in metal infused filament, but the tech has a ways to go.
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Old 02-10-2017, 02:32 PM   #9
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hmmm...maybe plastic filament and powdered metals or metal filament are an investment opportunity.
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Old 02-10-2017, 02:57 PM   #10
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There are metal filaments that are 88% metal dust. The carrier is plastic, which will melt at around 200F but there's enough metal present to allow it to be polished to look like a metallic surface. It's used for jewelry, statues, etc.





I don't think we're going to be printing iron frying pans any time soon.
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Old 02-10-2017, 04:17 PM   #11
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I make laboratory glassware for different applications and export the systems throughout the world.

I had a large order to France that was waiting on a single cheap part that was back ordered. The part was a Roda-Viss ring clip. The manufacturer told me they had units and when I went to order them - they were out. I went back and forth with them asking for samples, etc.. ^ week lead time.

Then I simply called them up and said I was going to have a thousand printed - would they like to buy a few hundred to hold them over till their shipment came in. 2 days later, I had my parts on UPS.
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