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Old 08-20-2014, 01:34 PM   #26
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Death toll at 1350 according to AP site (no links allowed to AP stories here), with 576 coming from Liberia.

ETA: A non-AP source:
Quote:
Death toll from Ebola outbreak in West Africa rises to 1350
Source: Reuters - Wed, 20 Aug 2014 16:54 GMT

DAKAR, Aug 20 (Reuters) - The death toll from the Ebola oubreak in West Africa has risen to 1,350, the World Health Organization said on Wednesday, with 106 new deaths reported between August 17-18 in three countries.

The U.N. health agency said that 221 new suspected, probable and confirmed cases of the deadly fever were reported across Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone over the two-day period.

(Reporting by Emma Farge; Editing by Daniel Flynn)

http://www.trust.org/item/20140820164618-n7ah8/
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Old 08-22-2014, 02:22 PM   #27
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WHO: Ebola death toll in west Africa reaches 1,427

Last updated Fri 22 Aug 2014
Health Ebola


The number of people killed in the Ebola outbreak in West Africa has risen to 1,427 according to the World Health Organisation.

In its latest update the WHO reported 142 new suspected, probable and confirmed cases of Ebola and 77 more deaths from the four affected countries - Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone.
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-...reaches-1-427/
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Old 08-22-2014, 02:34 PM   #28
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Link to the WHO update:

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_08_22_ebola/en/

New (1) Confirmed Probable Suspect Totals
Guinea
Cases 28 443 139 25 607
Deaths 10 264 139 3 406
Liberia
Cases 110 269 554 259 1 082
Deaths 48 222 267 135 624
Nigeria
Cases 1 12 0 4 16
Deaths 1 5 0 0 5
Sierra Leone
Cases 3 804 40 66 910
Deaths 18 353 34 5 392
Totals
Cases 142 1 528 733 354 2 615
Deaths 77 844 440 143 1 427
1. New cases were reported between 19 and 20 August 2014.
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Old 08-22-2014, 07:20 PM   #29
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And slowly but surely Nigeria is being brought into the fold.
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Old 08-24-2014, 05:33 PM   #30
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Default HCW's, 225 cases, 130 dead / CFR =58%

ripped from ZERO hedge.

As WHO states:

Since the beginning of the international response to the outbreak in March, WHO has deployed nearly 400 people from across the Organization and from partners in the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) to help respond to the disease in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone. This is the first time someone working under the aegis of WHO has fallen ill with the disease.

The Ebola virus is spread through contact with bodily fluids and people giving care or working around infected patients are known to be a high risk group. In the past six months of the outbreak, more than 225 health workers have fallen ill and nearly 130 have lost their lives to the disease they were working to contain.
Which again makes one wonder - just how easily is this disease really spread if nearly half a year after the start of the epidemic the world's most protected individuals can catch it despite all protective measures?

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Old 08-24-2014, 06:04 PM   #31
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Those same highly protected individuals are spending the most time with patients & in care settings. They're stressed, exhausted, dehydrated... no surprise here.
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Old 08-25-2014, 10:39 AM   #32
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It is very simple: either the people were not sufficiently trained, were unusually careless, or something has changed.

"The virus has changed to become more transmissable, because 'any lapse in training' can result in infection" (This puts all three statements together in one compact sentence).
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Old 08-25-2014, 10:43 AM   #33
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Andy - since we have not had an outbreak of this size/spread/duration, I'm not sure there really is a good baseline to make an assessment of whether anything has changed or not.

I'll go this far, that ebola in its current form is more contagious than the feel-good MSM reporting would have us believe.
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Old 08-25-2014, 10:53 AM   #34
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I'm not sure we have enough info to make that call either, Ex. This one took months to really get going. Mind you it seemed to hit some sort of tipping point where growth in case numbers really took off.
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Old 08-28-2014, 07:12 AM   #35
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Default Ebola virus disease update - west Africa (28/08/14)

Epidemiology and surveillance
The total number of probable and confirmed cases in the current outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the four affected countries as reported by the respective Ministries of Health of Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone is 3069, with 1552 deaths.
The outbreak continues to accelerate. More than 40% of the total number of cases have occurred within the past 21 days. However, most cases are concentrated in only a few localities.
The overall case fatality rate is 52%. It ranges from 42% in Sierra Leone to 66% in Guinea.
A separate outbreak of Ebola virus disease, which is not related to the outbreak in West Africa, was laboratory-confirmed on 26 August by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and is detailed in a separate edition of the Disease Outbreak News.
Health sector response
A full understanding of the outbreak that will lead to improved response requires detailed analysis of exactly where transmission is occurring (by district level) and of time trends. This analysis is ongoing. Preliminary results show that cases are still concentrated (62% of all reported cases since the beginning of the outbreak) in the epicentre of the outbreak in Gueckedou (Guinea); Lofa (Liberia), where cases continue to rise; and Kenema and Kailahun (Sierra Leone). Capital cities are of particular concern, owing to their population density and repercussions for travel and trade.

WHO and its partners are on the ground establishing Ebola treatment centres and strengthening capacity for laboratory testing, contact tracing, social mobilization, safe burials, and non-Ebola health care.

WHO continues to monitor for reports of rumoured or suspected cases from countries around the world and systematic verification of these cases is ongoing. Countries are encouraged to continue engaging in active surveillance and preparedness activities. Cases of EVD have been reported from the Democratic Republic of Congo. The cases in DRC are not related to the outbreak in West Africa. Outside of the four affected countries in West Africa and DRC, no new cases have been confirmed in other countries.

WHO does not recommend any travel or trade restrictions be applied except in cases where individuals have been confirmed or are suspected of being infected with EVD or where individuals have had contact with cases of EVD. (Contacts do not include properly-protected health-care workers and laboratory staff.) Temporary recommendations from the Emergency Committee with regard to actions to be taken by countries can be found at http://who.int/mediacentre/news/stat...a-20140808/en/.

Disease update
As of 26 August 2014, the cumulative number of cases attributed to EVD in the four countries stands at 3069, including 1552 deaths. The distribution and classification of the cases are as follows: Guinea, 647 cases (482 confirmed, 141 probable, and 25 suspected), including 430 deaths; Liberia, 1378 cases (322 confirmed, 674 probable, and 382 suspected), including 694 deaths; Nigeria, 17 cases (13 confirmed, 1 probable, and 3 suspected), including 6 deaths; and Sierra Leone, 1026 cases (935 confirmed, 37 probable, and 54 suspected), including 422 deaths.

Confirmed, probable, and suspect cases and deaths from Ebola virus disease in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone

Confirmed Probable Suspect Totals

Guinea
Cases 482 141 25 648
Deaths 287 141 2 430
Liberia
Cases 322 674 382 1 378
Deaths 225 301 168 694
Nigeria
Cases 13 1 3 17
Deaths 5 1 0 6
Sierra Leone
Cases 935 37 54 1 026
Deaths 380 34 8 422
Totals
Cases 1 752 853 464 3 069
Deaths 897 477 178 1 552


http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_08_28_ebola/en/
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Old 08-28-2014, 07:37 AM   #36
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Interesting that the table has lost the "new" column.
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Old 08-28-2014, 07:45 AM   #37
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Yeah.

And increasingly, I'm reading of centers opening with - let's say 100 beds. Within hours, they have 120 patients & have had to turn away another 100 or more. Do they factor into any counts, anywhere?

Untested, untreated... probably uncounted.
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Old 08-29-2014, 12:43 PM   #38
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I heard on ABC that WHO is setting up a 400 bed Ebola clinic - very state of the art and clean.
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Old 09-03-2014, 11:59 AM   #39
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No WHO update yet, but a story from the presser they have going today:

Quote:
Ebola outbreak racing out of control, officials say

Liz Szabo, USA TODAY 11:37 a.m. EDT September 3, 2014

The Ebola outbreak in West Africa is "racing ahead" of efforts to control it, and controlling the epidemic will cost at least $600 million, world health officials said Wednesday.

The number of people infected with Ebola has grown to 3,500, with more than 1,900 deaths, according to the World Health Organization, or WHO.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...trol/15015143/
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Old 09-03-2014, 01:46 PM   #40
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Honestly, I thought the WHO might admit to 4000+ cases, with 2200+ dead.

Budget creep is starting early & hard.

In the last few days I said it would easily end up north of 1.5 billion. Now I'm wondering how quickly they'll hit that milestone.
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Old 09-03-2014, 06:00 PM   #41
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Ebola: West Africa death toll reaches over 1,900

More than 1,900 people have died in the world’s worst outbreak of Ebola in West Africa, the head of the World Health Organisation said on Wednesday, marking a major acceleration in fatalities from just over 1,500 last week.

http://africanspotlight.com/2014/09/...-reaches-1900/
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Old 09-04-2014, 02:50 PM   #42
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Here's the latest official update. The comment in the narrative section suggests that there will soon be an update to the WHO SitRep.

Ebola virus disease outbreak – west Africa

Disease outbreak news
4 September 2014

Epidemiology and surveillance
Quote:
WHO has committed to provide regular situation reports that include detailed epidemiological information and analysis, as well as regular monitoring of the national and international response to the outbreak against the Ebola response roadmap.

Recognizing the demand for updated numbers from this outbreak, the following information is being released in advance of the second update of this situation report.

As of 31 August 2014, 3685 (probable, confirmed and suspected) cases and 1841 deaths have been reported in the current outbreak of Ebola virus disease by the Ministries of Health of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

In Nigeria, there have been 21 cases and 7 deaths.

In Senegal, one case has been confirmed and there have been no Ebola deaths or further suspected cases.





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Old 09-05-2014, 11:34 AM   #43
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This site has some nice charts. (Well, I like visuals; the data they show is, of course, not nice.) http://virologydownunder.blogspot.co...2014-west.html
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Old 09-05-2014, 11:48 AM   #44
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Thanks LizB. There were several links to that page on the first page of this thread, but now that we have moved on it good to have it again. Maybe we should ask to sticky that link, as the site is well done.

ETA: Looking at the curve in Liberia, it shows how little testing is being done (green line).
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Old 09-05-2014, 01:23 PM   #45
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New Situation Update out from WHO:

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola...14-en.pdf?ua=1

Cases: 3944 Deaths: 2097
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Last edited by Exodia; 09-05-2014 at 03:54 PM. Reason: fixed typo on case count
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Old 09-05-2014, 01:40 PM   #46
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FWIW
Data on page 4 shows: 3944 cases and 2097 deaths,
cumulative totals to Sept 5th., not including Nigeria and Spain.

Good Job Exodia, Carry on and have a good weekend.

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Old 09-05-2014, 01:43 PM   #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sonny View Post
FWIW
Data on page 4 shows: 3944 cases and 2097 deaths,
not including Nigeria and Spain.

Good Job Exodia, Carry on and have a good weekend.

~
Even this higher number is misleading because it reflects new cases for only 5/7ths of the latest week. So, the graph of total cases makes it look like growth has slowed. But, if you extrapolate (i.e., multiply this epidemological week's new cases by 7/5ths, yielding 700 not 500 new cases for this week), growth continues at the same exponential rate.
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Old 09-05-2014, 02:13 PM   #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sonny View Post
FWIW
Data on page 4 shows: 3944 cases and 2097 deaths,
cumulative totals to Sept 5th., not including Nigeria and Spain.

Good Job Exodia, Carry on and have a good weekend.

~
Thanks, typo on my part.
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Old 09-05-2014, 03:42 PM   #49
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I've got no problems stickying that link - it's a most excellent link.

And ladies & gents, (you know who you are!), tahnks for most excellent work keeping up with this. Don't forget we're heading into a weekend.

Take some time to relax.
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Old 09-06-2014, 10:09 AM   #50
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Forgot where I read it, but the re of Ebola was estimated to be 1.5 (each patient would infect 1.5 patients on average) so for grins, I ran that number through 21 generations, and I hit this number... 3325, nearly the number that was posted on sept. 3rd. Assuming 10-11 days average incubation, that matches fairly closely to the time of the index case last December. Working the numbers down the road, I came up with 11,222 cases by early October, 37,886 by early November, and 127,834 by New Years Eve, assuming nothing changes.

Methinks WHO and the CDC have run the same numbers, and have come to the same conclusions. Considering how porous the borders are in that area of the world, I can't see any quarantine of a country being effective, other than maybe slowing the spread to other countries, and even then, not by much...

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