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Old 09-28-2016, 11:35 AM   #1
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Default Hurricane Matthew - Sep. 28, 2016

At least as of Wednesday morning the models have him giving the U.S. a miss, but he's still a long ways out so it would be prudent to pay attention for a little while until they are sure.





Quote:
000
WTNT44 KNHC 281502
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2016

Surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the tropical wave passing
through the Windward Islands has acquired a closed circulation. The
aircraft found peak flight-level winds of 64 kt, and SFMR surface
winds of around 50 kt over the northern portion of the circulation.
As a result, advisories are being initiated on a 50-kt tropical
storm. The current lack of inner core structure suggests that
further strengthening should be limited today, but environmental
conditions consisting of warm water and low shear ahead of Matthew
favor intensification throughout the remainder of the forecast
period. The NHC intensity forecast is more conservative than the
statistical guidance, but follows the trends of the global models
in deepening the system.

Since the center has very recently formed, the initial motion
estimate is a highly uncertain 275/18 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge
over the western Atlantic should steer Matthew westward across the
eastern Caribbean during the next few days, and the track guidance
is tightly clustered through 72 hours. After that time, the
tropical cyclone will be approaching the western portion of the
ridge and a northwestward turn is expected, although there are
significant differences among the track models as to when the turn
takes place and how sharp it will be. The GFS takes the cyclone
northwestward much faster than the ECMWF with more troughing
developing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. For now, the NHC track
lies near a consensus of the faster GFS and slower ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 13.4N 60.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 13.6N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 13.9N 66.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 13.9N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 13.8N 71.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 13.5N 74.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 14.8N 75.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 17.5N 76.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Old 09-29-2016, 02:50 PM   #2
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Matthew is now a hurricane.

Quote:
000
WTNT44 KNHC 291455
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016

The center of Matthew is exposed to the southwest of the deep
convection due to moderate southwesterly shear. Despite the shear,
data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft show that
Matthew is a little stronger this morning. The aircraft has
measured peak 850 mb flight-level winds of 80 kt, and believable
SFMR winds of around 60 kt, which is the basis for the initial
intensity. The minimum central pressure reported by the aircraft
is down to 996 mb.

Given the current shear and structure of Matthew, only slight
strengthening is predicted during the next 24 hours. The shear is
forecast to slowly decrease over the next few days, although there
are some differences in the upper-level wind forecasts between the
ECMWF and GFS models. The ECMWF keeps a band of southwesterly
upper-level winds near Matthew, while the GFS generally shows lower
shear. The NHC forecast assumes that there will be a reduction in
shear and calls for intensification similar to the previous
advisory. The official wind speed forecast is between the lower
statistical guidance and the more aggressive HWRF and GFDL models.

Matthew is moving at 275/14 kt. The tropical storm is expected to
move westward to the south of a mid- to upper-level ridge over the
western Atlantic during the next couple of days. In about 48 hours,
Matthew should turn northwestward when it approaches the western
periphery of the ridge. After that time, the tropical cyclone is
forecast to turn northward while a mid- to upper-level trough
develops over the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS is still much faster than
the ECMWF at taking Matthew northward. Although the east/west spread
among the higher quality track models is somewhat smaller this
morning, there is still significant spread among the ECMWF ensembles
beyond 3 days, and the overall confidence in the track forecast is
still low. The new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of
the previous forecast and is very close to the multi-model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 14.2N 66.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 14.3N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 14.1N 70.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 13.9N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 13.9N 72.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 15.3N 74.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 18.0N 75.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 21.5N 75.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
Projected track is still largely the same from this morning.



Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas should be keeping an eye on him though he's likely to miss. Southeast Florida in particular.
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Old 09-29-2016, 05:04 PM   #3
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Wow - That is an unusual place for a hurricane to form. Hard for them to spin up in low latitudes given the low Coriolis force.
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Old 09-30-2016, 11:46 AM   #4
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Lot's of warm water there to work with.

Looks like Jamacia and Cuba in the bulls-eye right now.
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Old 09-30-2016, 12:00 PM   #5
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http://ufweather.org/?p=20567

Uncertainty is high with regards to Matthew’s track once it passes Cuba. National Hurricane Center Director Rick Knabb says the average forecast error on a storm’s track is 240 miles, but it could be even higher wit this storm.
Quote:
“In this case, I would characterize our forecast confidence at days four and five is lower than average, because our various reliable models have greatly differently answers in terms of where it will be, and how fast it will be moving.”


In other words the storm that looks to miss today may be the one that might could hit us next week so don't take your eye of the ball just yet.
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Old 09-30-2016, 02:15 PM   #6
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I'm still paying attention to the days of rain we've been having here this week. 4.5 inches so far and its still raining lightly right now. Its supposed to slack off sometime tomorrow and then dry for a week.

Next week is when I go and buy cases of our canned beans and veggies for the winter and spring. We'll be in the low 30's by the end of Oct here
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Old 09-30-2016, 10:35 PM   #7
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Default Hurricane Matthew

Models are getting closer to Florida. This is a MONSTER storm, Cat 4 before it enters the hottest part of the Gulf. Prep up this weekend, Florida people.

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Old 10-01-2016, 12:21 AM   #8
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I was looking at a few models tonight and a couple, particularly the GFS, keep moving west. It wouldn't surprise me a bit to see it moving up the gulf coast tues or wed. Of course, that puts us east of the storm: the least desirable place to be. West Citrus hasn't dried out yet, and to get another would be worse than the disaster that Obama just declared this week. We cant take another storm surge. Not that fast.
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Old 10-01-2016, 01:10 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Twoolf View Post
I was looking at a few models tonight and a couple, particularly the GFS, keep moving west. It wouldn't surprise me a bit to see it moving up the gulf coast tues or wed. Of course, that puts us east of the storm: the least desirable place to be. West Citrus hasn't dried out yet, and to get another would be worse than the disaster that Obama just declared this week. We cant take another storm surge. Not that fast.
Noticed that too.
.
And the GOM is hot as soup and this 'cane doesn't need more to feed off of.

But anyone in the path of Matthew isn't going to have it easy. Shaped up fast, seems to be holding its own and is already a major 'cane and heartbreaker.



Quote:

Matthew Becomes the Atlantic's First Category 5 Hurricane in Nine Years


Extending a jaw-dropping stretch of rapid intensification, Hurricane Matthew has become the Atlantic's first Category 5 hurricane since Felix in 2007. Matthew's top sustained winds were set at 160 mph in the 11 pm EDT update from the National Hurricane Center. The upgrade was based on radiometer-measured near-surface winds as high as 143 knots (165 mph] gathered in a Hurricane Hunter flight on Friday evening. Now located less than 100 miles north of the Colombian coastline, Matthew continues to move just south of due west at about 7 mph.


Matthew is the planet’s fifth Category 5 storm of the year. The others were Tropical Cyclone Winston, which devastated Fiji in the Southwest Pacific in February; Tropical Cyclone Fantala from May, in the Southwest Indian Ocean; Super Typhoon Nepartak from July, in the Northwest Pacific Ocean; and Super Typhoon Meranti in the Northwest Pacific, which struck the small Philippine island of Itbayat Island while at peak strength in September. Super Typhoon Meranti was the most intense Category 5 of the year, with sustained winds of 185 mph and a central pressure of 890 mb. The globe averages between 4 and 5 Category 5 storms per year.

In records going back to 1924, only five Atlantic hurricanes are on record as having Category 5 strength this late in the year--all of them in the Caribbean, the region where sufficiently warm waters and favorable atmospheric conditions are most likely to occur this late in the season. Shown with their date spans at Category 5 strength, these are:

"Cuba": October 19, 1924
"Cuba": November 5-8, 1932
Hattie: October 30-31, 1961
Mitch: October 26-28, 1998
Wilma: October 19, 2005




More background from our earlier post

There's been little change so far in the outlook for Matthew, although we'll be watching tonight's 00Z Saturday model runs closely to see what comes next. Below is more context on Matthew's past, present, and future, mostly brought over from our post earlier this afternoon. We will be posting regular updates through the weekend, typically between 10 am and noon EDT and between 6 and 8 pm EDT. For those new to our blog, the comments section is packed with valuable insights from our many members, including meteorologists as well as dedicated laypeople.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters

How did Matthew get so strong so quickly?



Vertical wind shear of up to 20 knots has plagued Matthew for most of the last two days, yet the storm has not only maintained its structure but grown at a ferocious rate. Dissertations may be written on how this happened! Working in Matthew’s favor has been a steadily moistening atmosphere along its westward path, which means that the shearing winds didn’t push too much dry air into Matthew. Once it developed a central core, Matthew was able to fend off the wind shear much more effectively. In addition, water temperatures are unusually warm throughout the Caribbean (and the entire western North Atlantic), with an area of high oceanic heat content directly beneath Matthew’s path. Such deep oceanic heat allows a storm to strengthen without churning up cooler waters from below that could blunt the intensification.

Matthew’s ascent highlights the nagging challenge of predicting hurricane intensity. NHC statistics for the past few years show a steady improvement in track forecasts and much more erratic progress in intensity forecasts (see Figure 2 below). The typical 48-hour track error has been cut in half since the late 1990s, dropping from around 150 nautical miles (170 miles) to around 75 nautical miles today. Meanwhile, the 48-hour intensity forecast error has averaged about 12 knots (15 mph) in the last several years, which is not much better than the 15-knot errors that were typical in the mid-to-late 1990s. Much of that error is the result of just a few rapidly intensifying storms, such as Matthew.

Although Matthew strengthened far more quickly than projected in the official outlook--and expected by most observers--there were signs that rapid intensification was possible, as we discussed on Wednesday afternoon. The 18Z (2:00 pm) Wednesday run of the SHIPS statistical model included a 44% chance that Matthew’s strength would increase by 55 knots in 48 hours. In fact, this is exactly how quickly Matthew intensified: from 50 knots (60 mph) at 18Z Wednesday to 105 knots (120 mph) at 2:00 pm Friday. SHIPS is only one tool used by forecasters to assess potential intensity change. Dynamical forecast models were generally less gung-ho on rapid intensification on Wednesday, and even subsequent SHIPS runs pulled back a bit.

Matthew poses a major threat to Jamaica


Matthew is moving just south of due west at 9 mph. Its location about 75 miles north of Punta Gallinas, Colombia, puts it about as close to South America as any major hurricane is known to have gotten (even about 50 miles closer than 2004’s Hurricane Ivan).

Although Matthew’s westward track will keep it offshore of Colombia and Venezuela, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Colombian coast from the Venezuelan border west to Riohacha. The Columbian coast will remain on the less-intense left-hand side of Matthew, reducing the odds of hurricane-force winds and limiting the heaviest rains. Riohacha’s Almirante Padilla reported sustained winds of less than 20 mph on Friday afternoon.

Models agree strongly that Matthew will begin taking a fairly sharp right turn on Saturday, heading north-northwest through the central Caribbean. Conditions should be very favorable for maintaining Matthew's strength at this point. Wind shear is projected to drop dramatically (perhaps below 10 knots by Sunday), the deep atmosphere will moisten further (close to 80% relative humidity), and Matthew will be passing over waters with extremely high oceanic heat content. Now that Matthew is a Category 5 hurricane, we can expect ups and downs in its strength from day to day as internal processes such as eyewall replacement cycles kick in.

The threat to the Greater Antilles from Matthew is becoming increasingly worrisome. The most immediate concern is for Jamaica, where a Hurricane Watch has been posted. The latest NHC outlook brings Matthew over the eastern tip of Jamaica on Monday afternoon. A westward shift of just 50 miles--well within the range of uncertainty at this point--would put the city of Kingston in Matthew’s dangerous right-hand side. A major hurricane striking Jamaica from the south would be a virtually unprecented event. Figure 5 shows the tracks of all major hurricanes passing over or very near Jamaica since 1851. All of the prior events involved storms tracking on a classic west-northwest path except for an unnamed 1912 hurricane that crossed the northwest tip of the island on a northeast path, then made a 180-degree turn. Among all hurricanes since 1851 (not shown), the only one to have crossed Jamaica on a primarily northward track during the last 80 years is Sandy (2012), which struck eastern Jamaica at Category 2 strength. Sandy caused an estimated $100 million in damage in Jamaica and knocked out power to most of the island. Matthew could be much stronger than Sandy, and a northward-oriented path through central Jamaica could bring a severe storm surge into the highly vulnerable Kingston area.

Next in Matthew’s sights on the NHC-predicted track would be Cuba, whose excellent history of hurricane awareness and preparation would likely reduce potential impacts. Matthew may also be weakened by any direct passage over mountainous Jamaica, although it could easily strike Cuba as a major hurricane.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the western coast of Haiti from Port-au-Prince to the Dominican Republic border. If Matthew were to trend eastward rather than westward, the risk to western Haiti would rise dramatically. Model guidance has trended gradually west over time, which gives some hope that Haiti will escape the worst of Matthew. Still recovering from the devastation of the 2010 earthquake, and plagued with deforestation and poverty, Haiti would be highly vulnerable to the impacts of a major hurricane.

Long-term outlook for Matthew

If anything, the prospects for Matthew later next week have become more uncertain over time. Models continue to take Matthew north through into the Bahamas, but then we have major divergence among our top models. As just one example, the 12Z Friday operational run of the GFS model pulls Matthew almost due north, slamming it into eastern Maine as a significant hurricane or very intense post-tropical storm by next weekend. In stark contrast, the 12Z run of the ECMWF model strands Matthew in the Bahamas, where it lingers through next weekend and into the following week as a major hurricane. The 12Z run of the UKMET, our other top track model, also stalls Matthew in the Bahamas, then angles it northwest toward the Southeast U.S. coast.

Why such profound disagreement? The simplest explanation is that track errors increase markedly over time, and there is little skill beyond about 5-7 days. In this case, there is a great deal of uncertainty over how the mid-latitude steering features over the United States and the western Atlantic will evolve over the next week. NOAA’s Gulfstream-IV jet has been flying regular missions to sample the environment around Matthew, which has likely led to improvements in the short-term track forecasts. The problem is that the upper-level trough that will be a key influence on Matthew’s track next week is still thousands of miles away--moving through the northeast Pacific, where observations are scarce. It is far too soon to know with confidence how the upper-level features will evolve next week, so we need to keep our expectations very modest for confidence in any East Coast forecast.

The bottom line:

--Matthew poses a very serious risk to the western Greater Antilles early next week.

--A trek over the mountainous terrain of Jamaica, Cuba, and/or Haiti would dramatically weaken Matthew. At least some restrengthening would be possible over the Bahamas.

--Matthew could affect any part of the U.S. East Coast from Florida to Maine at some point from the middle of next week into the weekend.

--Long-range forecasts will vary, perhaps several times each day. Because the key features that will steer Matthew are very uncertain at this point, any given model shift may not mean much until the evolution of these features becomes better defined, which could take several days.


https://www.wunderground.com/blog/Je...?entrynum=3454
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Old 10-01-2016, 05:11 PM   #10
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I hope there is a front to push it out to sea and that it doesn't come up the coast.
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Old 10-01-2016, 06:39 PM   #11
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Welcome to Florida!
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Old 10-01-2016, 07:14 PM   #12
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I 2nd what LDW said. We really don't want to see this even skirting the coast.

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Hurricane Matthew expected to bring life-threatening rainfall to portions of Haiti; total rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches over southern part of country with possible isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches - National Hurricane Center
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Old 10-01-2016, 09:10 PM   #13
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Very informative hurricane watcher: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
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Old 10-01-2016, 09:43 PM   #14
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Comparing the probability grid between yesterday and today it appears it is trending a bit to the east.
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Old 10-02-2016, 10:14 AM   #15
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I'd say it's finger-crossing time that the predicted upper-level trough makes it far enough eastward to push Matthew away from the coast.

Latest model runs from Wunderground:






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Old 10-02-2016, 11:21 AM   #16
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Anyone within 100 miles of the coast between northern Georgia and Maine needs to pay attention. It is now fall so it is time to put the summer stuff away, check for any necessary repairs, and do your winter pantry stock up anyway. Don't put it off.
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Old 10-02-2016, 12:45 PM   #17
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Old 10-03-2016, 09:20 AM   #18
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Bumping the cone from NHC in post #1 down here.

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Old 10-03-2016, 09:37 AM   #19
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Looks like Mr Matthew may decide to pay us a visit. Hopefully he's lost most of his strength by then. Better yet, he could just choose to pass us by.
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Old 10-03-2016, 10:49 AM   #20
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Models are looking a little better this morning. More agreement.

But he's still days out so tomorrow they may swing further west.

This one reminds me a lot of Hurricane Floyd way back when.

He has the singular honor of being the only hurricane ever to make the entire Hagan family pack up from central Florida to central Georgia. Most of us didn't actually bug out, but as with now there was a lot of uncertainty.
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Old 10-03-2016, 01:45 PM   #21
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And now trending a bit more west again. Back and forth, back and forth...
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Old 10-03-2016, 03:28 PM   #22
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Tropical Tidbits had a good video about Matthew's direction yesterday. It seems strong hurricanes can wobble in their path. It's not a straight line, more a series of little loops... look around the 45 second mark.

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Old 10-03-2016, 05:03 PM   #23
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Heads up. Today's five o'clock model run has a big westward change.
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Old 10-03-2016, 05:04 PM   #24
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It may be a bit early, but maybe this will help to get more people ready.

Quote:
Florida Gov. Rick Scott announces state of emergency in state to prepare for resources ahead of Hurricane Matthew - WSVN

Florida Gov. Rick Scott says state could see 'massive destruction we haven't seen in years' if hit directly by Hurricane Matthew - WFLA

Florida Gov. Rick Scott on Hurricnae Matthew: 'We can not take this storm lightly' - WFLA
Quote:
North Carolina Gov. McCrory says state of emergency declared for 66 counties ahead of Hurricane Matthew - @BeauMinnick


When put in these terms, it's easier to realize just how incredible this storm really is.

Quote:
Hurricane Matthew forecast to dump about 1 trillion gallons of water on Haiti - USA Today Weather

The Capitol Weather Gang has made their call:

Quote:
'It now appears likely that it will remain far enough east of Florida that only fringe effects and tropical storm conditions should be experienced along the peninsula on Thursday and Friday.' Farther out, the southeast US and mid-Atlantic states remain at risk...
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Old 10-03-2016, 06:37 PM   #25
Brihard
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Oh boy. Haiti'a gonna eat the northeast quadrant. The country that can least afford it will take one hell of a shit kicking.

A lot of people will suffer from this one. Let's keep our fingers crossed for them.
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