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Old 11-28-2016, 12:28 PM   #1
Ross
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Default The Indian Currency experiment .

It seems to me the Indian government withdrawal of larger bank
notes and stated goal of ( I believe ) an eventual cashless society
is a much underrated story .

Not only is there now chaos in India , if the experiment succeeds
there will be pressure in Western countries to also withdraw cash
with serious consequences for personal privacy and freedom .

I have therefore started this thread with the intention of watching
Indian developments as they unfold .

What I see thus far is has the appearance of an unfolding
economic nightmare . When do the riots start ?

Image below .... Massive queues at banks .




Quote:
NEW DELHI — As the chaos surrounding Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s
ban on high-currency bills entered its ninth day, the government moved
Thursday to address some of the problems amid signs of growing impatience
with the slapdash way the policy seems to have been carried out.

Since the move was announced, retail commerce has slowed,
farmers who deal almost exclusively in cash have had no buyers and people have
waited in long lines at banks and ATMs in hopes of getting a paltry amount
of the new notes the government is in the process of printing.
More detail here .

..
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Old 11-28-2016, 05:33 PM   #2
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Those guys look angry because the families are living off all the gold the WIFE brought into the marriage.

Remember all of those wedding photos of Indians where the woman was decked out in a lot of gold jewelry? What ever she wears into the marriage is her personal property.

A lot of man cred has vaporized when the wife has to sell gold to feed the family.
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Old 11-28-2016, 06:22 PM   #3
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If the goal is a cashless society, why are they issuing new INR 2000 notes?

I wonder if this will result in a bizarre situation where small notes have a real value that is higher than their stated value, as folks scramble to get their hands on them. That would be deflationary.
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Old 11-29-2016, 01:38 AM   #4
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The goal had nothing to do with a "cashless society". The goal is to take on the wealthy and politically connected in India who use large bills to evade taxes. We can argue about whether this was the way to go or not, but my sense is it is working in large part. The average merchant who decries this development is the one who hoards cash to evade taxes. The poor people (or law abiding people) couldn't care less that the equivalent of 50dollar bills had to be traded in.

If someone told me: "you have a month to trade in ur 50's and 100's", I'd shrug my Shoulders and say "um, ok" with mild annoyance but nothing more. The ones screaming bloody murder are doing so because they have something unkosher going on
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Old 11-29-2016, 06:16 AM   #5
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Customers Vandalize Banks
Quote:
Angry customers vandalized two SBI branches in Manipur on Monday after the
bank refused to allow people to withdraw Rs 24,000 each from their accounts citing
cash shortage...........
Quote:
.........A policeman was injured in violence in one of the banks while a mob damaged
windows in another, witnesses and officials said. Bank work was hit in both
places but no one has been arrested.


Full article here .
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Old 11-29-2016, 06:37 AM   #6
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Indian Supreme Court warns riots are imminent .

Quote:
NEW DELHI: The Supreme Court warned on Friday that people
standing in long queues for hours every day for scarce cash could
turn riotous, as it asked the Centre to take urgent measures
to end their ordeal.

Source


The maximum amount a person may withdraw in cash per day
is about $30 ( = 2000 Rs ) .

Many of the poor in India are illiterate and do not
have bank accounts , much less debit and or credit cards.


..
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All paper is a short position on gold . “Gold is money. Everything else is credit.”

“If we don’t believe in freedom of expression for people we despise, we don’t believe in it at all.” ( Noam Chomsky )

‘you can judge a man’s spirit by the amount of truth he can tolerate.’ .... Nietzsche

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Old 11-29-2016, 06:55 AM   #7
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Unintended consequences ......

Tourists unable to obtain cash .

Business men from Bangladesh hit hard.

Farmers hit hard .

Currency dealers in other countries see value destroyed .

Tourists stranded without cash .

Quote:
More than one million Bangladeshis visit India every year for medical, tourism and business purposes.

Many Bangladeshis, especially businessmen, visit as often as two or
three times a month. Being businessmen, they tend to carry wads of
high-value Indian notes on their trips.

Since the new rules have come into effect, Bangladeshis have been
trying to exchange their unusable currency, but money-changers
have refused to take them.
Quote:
Farmers in eastern Nepal say the volume of their agricultural exports
to India have decreased by almost 90% since the Indian currency move.
Quote:
In Pakistan, currency dealers are estimated to hold more than
150 million rupees ($2.2m) worth of Indian currency. After the government's
move on the 500 and 1,000 rupee notes, this stash is being traded for
about a quarter of its value, they say.
Quote:
Sri Lankan diplomats have also told BBC Sinhala that the cash crisis has
left hundreds of Buddhist pilgrims stranded in India. Without access to cash,
they are finding it difficult to continue their journeys or return home, the diplomat said.
Source .
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“If we don’t believe in freedom of expression for people we despise, we don’t believe in it at all.” ( Noam Chomsky )

‘you can judge a man’s spirit by the amount of truth he can tolerate.’ .... Nietzsche

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Old 11-29-2016, 07:07 AM   #8
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Dietrich , the long term goal does appear to be a cashless society .

Quote:

India's Prime Minister Plans for Cashless Society
Quote:
“We can gradually move from a less-cash society to a cashless society,”
he told listeners.
Full article here .

..
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All paper is a short position on gold . “Gold is money. Everything else is credit.”

“If we don’t believe in freedom of expression for people we despise, we don’t believe in it at all.” ( Noam Chomsky )

‘you can judge a man’s spirit by the amount of truth he can tolerate.’ .... Nietzsche

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Old 11-29-2016, 09:01 AM   #9
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Wifi enabled for secure online purchases I'm sure.

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Old 11-29-2016, 10:31 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Exodia View Post
Wifi enabled for secure online purchases I'm sure.

Well, we do and receive a lot of payments with our cell phones.
It is called Bcash and it is safe and reliable.
It also provides people in the villages employment. And it is very convenient.
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Old 11-29-2016, 10:43 AM   #11
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Buzzkill....
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Old 11-29-2016, 11:41 AM   #12
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Quote:
As is now abundantly clear, the government did not do all its
homework before unleashing this demonetization drive. It completely
overestimated the country’s readiness for such a radical move.
The newly designed cash bills don’t even fit in the ATMs.


Source


..
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Old 11-30-2016, 11:36 AM   #13
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Quote:
“Every day — and today is the 20th day — you can see there are long queues for ATM machines and banks,” Sahoo says.
If I am understanding correctly the currency denominations that
remain in circulation are much too small .

Quote:
Three weeks ago, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi surprised his
country with an announcement banning 500- and 1,000-rupee notes
— worth about $7 and $15 respectively — in a bid to tackle corruption
and terrorism.
The poor are hurting .

Quote:
The cash shortage has been particularly hard on destitute
Indians, many of whom don’t have bank accounts. Some of them have
to choose between waiting in line for a day to exchange their defunct
currency or working for a day’s wages. And Basu estimates that many
poor people may simply end up losing their savings because of their
mistrust of financial institutions and concern about being harassed
about where their cash came from.
There are benefits . Money has flooded in to banks ,
creating surplus funds and allowing interest rates to fall .

Does it work ? IMO it probably is a great step forward in
deterring tax evasion , but some experts disagree .
Quote:
Many experts don’t even have faith that this is an effective way to
counter tax evasion. Basu says that most black money doesn’t take
the form of cash held in india but is instead held in gold, silver,
real estate, and overseas bank accounts.
Source article .


..
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Old 11-30-2016, 02:56 PM   #14
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Globalist NWO Australia is following suit
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Old 11-30-2016, 07:12 PM   #15
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Exciting times in India .
Bank managers report a run on cash .

I this continues I think we will see a significant
drop in real Indian GDP but reported GDP may
rise .

Would I care to put a figure on real GDP decline ... hell no ,
but when 98% of your economy runs on cash it obviously has to
be a big number .


Quote:
Angry Mobs Lock Up Indian Bankers As Cash Chaos Soars:
"We Are Fearing The Worst"
Quote:
Overnight, banks played down expectations of a dramatic improvement
in currency availability, raising the prospect of queues lengthening as
salaries get paid and people look to withdraw money from their accounts
the Economic Times reported.

Quote:
Foreign investors continue to be net sellers of Indian assets post currency reform


Source of extract .

Given the level of chaos I think we can reasonably expect a change of Indian leadership very soon .

..
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All paper is a short position on gold . “Gold is money. Everything else is credit.”

“If we don’t believe in freedom of expression for people we despise, we don’t believe in it at all.” ( Noam Chomsky )

‘you can judge a man’s spirit by the amount of truth he can tolerate.’ .... Nietzsche

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Old 12-10-2016, 08:06 AM   #16
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There appears to be massive decline in economic activity almost
across the board . Unless there is a dramatic turn around very soon
I think we can safely say India is headed for severe recession ( at a minimum ) .



Meh , I suppose the government is not worried about 1.2 Billion
people rioting simultaneously because the military have nukes.

Extract source .

..
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‘you can judge a man’s spirit by the amount of truth he can tolerate.’ .... Nietzsche

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Old 12-13-2016, 07:53 AM   #17
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The real reason behind this Indian madness .

Finally an explanation that makes some sense .

The Indian governments ( state and federal ) have been
spending more than they receive and running the economy
with the mentality of centrally planned control freaks.

It is all now falling apart and so are Indian government run
banks. In a word , Indian government banks were ''skint'' .

This is a brazen in your face money grab . People are forced to
deposit their wealth in to banks then not allowed to withdraw it .



A nice article explaining this massive crime can be found here.

An Indian crisis is coming .

The article goes on to argue that ...
Quote:
This stage is set for another fiscal crisis for the government.
This crisis will approach much faster now that the private investments
have taken another severe hit. This time, the government will be forced
to use money printing to deal with it, as not making good on its
promises might not be politically feasible at the time.
In summary - why screw around . Get it over with
and just use the Venezuelan Bolivar , they are cheap enough .

..
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All paper is a short position on gold . “Gold is money. Everything else is credit.”

“If we don’t believe in freedom of expression for people we despise, we don’t believe in it at all.” ( Noam Chomsky )

‘you can judge a man’s spirit by the amount of truth he can tolerate.’ .... Nietzsche

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Old 12-13-2016, 12:34 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ross View Post
... In summary - why screw around . Get it over with
and just use the Venezuelan Bolivar , they are cheap enough .
..
Venezuela is pulling its largest current bank note out of circulation amid raging inflation.
President Nicolas Maduro announced Sunday that the 100-bolivar bill will be removed by Wednesday. The 100-bolivar note is worth about 2 cents and is the most widely used bill in the economically ravaged South American country.
This is the currency officially called the bolivar fuerte, introduced at a value of about 50 US cents in only 2008. The fuerte meaning "strong", to distinguish it from the earlier bolivar which they inflated away - 1000 old became one strong bolivar. To kill off a currency in 8 years really does take some doing.


`
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Old 12-13-2016, 02:50 PM   #19
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Check this,

India in importing 20k tons of high security currency paper to print new bank notes.

It has to use imported paper and foreign firms to catch up with new currency demands.



Cash crunch: 20,000 tonnes of currency paper to be imported soon, 9 firms on*radar
Officials of the Finance Ministry and Bharatiya Reserve Bank Note Mudran Private Limited (BRBNMPL) said that the order may be shared by around nine foreign firms.

...
Officials of the Finance Ministry and Bharatiya Reserve Bank Note Mudran Private Limited (BRBNMPL) said that the order may be shared by around nine foreign firms who have obtained security clearance from the Home Ministry. They include Landquart from Switzerland, Komsco from South Korea; PWPW from Poland; Arjowiggins from France; Crane from Sweden; Goznak from Russia; PT Pura from Indonesia; Fabriano from Italy and Louisenthal from Germany.

...

More at link http://indianexpress.com/article/ind...-note-4422528/
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Old 12-13-2016, 04:06 PM   #20
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Quote:
Get it over with
and just use the Venezuelan Bolivar , they are cheap enough
Plus, just like gold, paper currency always has some intrinsic value. As toilet paper.
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Old 03-03-2017, 07:08 AM   #21
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Eyup , that worked so well .

Quote:
Indian Economy Collapses As 'Demonetization' Crushes Small Business




Source article here .

..
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