Zogby Poll: Republicans Hold Small Post-Convention Edge

[free ranger]

UTICA, New York - Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin left St. Paul, Minnesota, with a smallish bounce overall and some energy in key demographic groups, as the race for the presidency enters a key stage and voters begin to tune in to the contest, the latest Zogby Interactive poll finds.

The McCain/Palin ticket wins 49.7% support, compared to 45.9% backing for the Obama/Biden ticket, this latest online survey shows. Another 4.4% either favored someone else or were unsure.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548

[US Blues]

Underdog always wins

[free ranger]

Gallup Daily: McCain Moves Ahead, 48% to 45%

These results are based on Sept. 4-6 interviewing, and include two full days of polling after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention last Thursday night. McCain has outpolled Obama on both Friday and Saturday, and is receiving a convention bounce just as Obama did last week....

McCain's 48% share of the vote ties for his largest since Gallup tracking began in early March. He registered the same level of support in early May. This is also McCain's largest advantage over Obama since early May, when he led by as much as six percentage points.

[Potemkin]

Originally Posted by free ranger

Gallup Daily: McCain Moves Ahead, 48% to 45%

Well, Democrats can't blame this on the "biased" Zogby polls.

[Flint]

Well, Democrats can't blame this on the "biased" Zogby polls.

Personally, I can't bring myself to believe the Democrats really have any chance here. I recall that Tom Bradley, mayor of Los Angeles (over 10 times more people than Alaska) was ahead in his race for California governor. He led right up to election day, and he led the exit polls of people leaving. And not only did he lose the election, he wasn't even close. And his poll margins were double-digits all the way.

Even in Zogby, Gallup and other polls, nobody wants to look like a racist. But when it comes time to cast a secret ballot, well, not nearly enough whites can quite bring themselves to vote for, uh, one of THOSE people. Even after they voted, they aren't willing to own up to their actual vote.

The religious and racist right will always represent a solid unshakeable 40% of votes for a white anti-abortion candidate. The Republicans could probably run a candidate whose sole "qualifications" consist of being anti-abortion and white, and nothing else remotely related to job requirements, even (just try to imagine for a moment) an air-headed ex-beauty queen breeding Down's sydrome kids and unmarried pregnant juniors in high school, but if she can read "praise Jeezus" off the teleprompter, she has 40% of the vote from the get-go.

And this means the Republicans need only capture 20% of those who are concerned that if they screw up, they run the risk of a President who manufactures permanent running wars against random enemies with no definition of what a victory might look like, to the tune of over $2 billioin a WEEK, while running up the biggest deficits in US history. But...but the opponent is, you know, one of THOSE people. Never happen.

[Potemkin]

10% among those most likely

In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote.

Poll: Convention lifts McCain over Obama
By Susan Page, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — The Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an "enthusiasm gap" that has dogged the GOP all year.

McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican's biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.

The convention bounce has helped not only McCain but also attitudes toward Republican congressional candidates and the GOP in general.

"The Republicans had a very successful convention and, at least initially, the selection of Sarah Palin has made a big difference," says political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia. "He's in a far better position than his people imagined he would be in at this point."

However, in an analysis of the impact of political conventions since 1960, Sabato concluded that post-convention polls signal the election's outcome only about half the time. "You could flip a coin and be about as predictive," he says. "It is really surprising how quickly convention memories fade."

McCain has narrowed Obama's wide advantage on handling the economy, by far the electorate's top issue. Before the GOP convention, Obama was favored by 19 points; now he's favored by 3.

The Republican's ties to President Bush remains a vulnerability. In the poll, 63% say they are concerned he would pursue policies too similar to those of the current president. Bush's approval rating is 33%.

In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples.

Among the findings:

• Before the convention, Republicans by 47%-39% were less enthusiastic than usual about voting. Now, they are more enthusiastic by 60%-24%, a sweeping change that narrows a key Democratic advantage. Democrats report being more enthusiastic by 67%-19%.

• Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a national unknown before McCain chose her for the ticket 10 days ago, draws a strong reaction from voters on both sides. Now, 29% say she makes them more likely to vote for McCain, 21% less likely.

Obama's choice of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden as running mate made 14% more likely to vote for the Democrat, 7% less likely.

• McCain's acceptance speech Thursday received lower ratings than the one Obama gave a week earlier: 15% called McCain's speech "excellent" compared with 35% for Obama.



Find this article at:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politic...-07-poll_N.htm

[Renegade]

The religious and racist right
Just to be clear here....are you describing one group or two sub-groups of conservatives?

And evidently the DNC don't see it as you do or they wouldn't be running Obama in the first place!

[Michael]

Potemkin - As you know, both parties get a bump from their convention. And Obama had the lead right after the Democrat convention.

Zogby is a poll for hire. And they usually please whoever is employing them in order to get hired again.

[Potemkin]

Originally Posted by Michael

Potemkin - As you know, both parties get a bump from their convention. And Obama had the lead right after the Democrat convention.

Zogby is a poll for hire. And they usually please whoever is employing them in order to get hired again.

I guess you missed where it said Poll: Convention lifts McCain over Obama and "USA TODAY/Gallup Poll".

[Michael]

To quote myself since you didn't read it ......

Potemkin - As you know, both parties get a bump from their convention. And Obama had the lead right after the Democrat convention.

And I will stand by what I said about Zogby. If you do a search on the Internet under Zogby, you will find out that is not my own unique opinion.

[dyrt]

Originally Posted by Renegade

The religious and racist right
Just to be clear here....are you describing one group or two sub-groups of conservatives?

And evidently the DNC don't see it as you do or they wouldn't be running Obama in the first place!

I think you make a good point Renegade. If racism is so rampant, what was the Democrat's plan? It can't be they did not know. They have access to the best social information just like the Republicans.

In fact there are people that would never vote for a person with dark skin . . . just like there are people that would do the opposite. The people that would vote for someone because of skin color are just as racist as those that would vote against. Maybe the Democrat's plan was based on a bet that they could get one side of the racist coin to vote more than the other.

This idea that only the religious right are racists is easily proven false. There is a lot of information on this subject. Recently, an analysis of the primary voting patterns showed that about 15% of Democrats would not vote for a "black."

And let's not forget the women haters. Their vile and angry language in discussing women of power gives them away. There is obviously a significant amount of people that would never vote for/against a person based on the gender.

Yep, there is still racism and sexism in our society but it is obvious that the feelings are in both major political parties. I expect that in the end they will cancel each other out and not be a factor in the vote totals.

[Flint]

Originally Posted by renegade

Just to be clear here....are you describing one group or two sub-groups of conservatives?

I was thinking of two different groups.

And evidently the DNC don't see it as you do or they wouldn't be running Obama in the first place!

This is very likely true. Considering McCain's voting record and Palin's resume, I would very strongly wish to be wrong here. I can only hope that Bush is about as bad as it's possibe for any President to be. Otherwise, well, I suppose I could move to Canada.

I should also repeat myself about Tom Bradley - ALL the polls had him winning by WIDE margins, even the exit polls. He lost badly. When it comes to race, Americans are not honest with pollsters because they are not honest with themselves. They aren't bigots, nosirree, that's so last century. But they ain't voting for no nigger neither...

[Flint]

dyrt:

Yep, there is still racism and sexism in our society but it is obvious that the feelings are in both major political parties. I expect that in the end they will cancel each other out and not be a factor in the vote totals.

May I respectfully suggest you have it wrong? These don't cancel, they ADD, for the most part. At least as I've been reading it, race is a decisive factor for a very large number of people, and the number of whites who won't vote for a black far exceeds the number of blacks who would otherwise vote Republican - because most blacks already vote Democrat.

[Michael]

And online surveys are extremely unreliable. We still have time before the real elections and multiple REAL professional polls.

[Renegade]

But they ain't voting for no nigger neither...

Oh believe, I understand. I'm surrounded by them down here. And as bad as that is, I personally consider it just as bad as the majority of blacks down in the deep south that are guaranteed to vote Democrat...because that is the "gimmie" party. You can almost see them with their hand out as they leave the polling booth.

Neither one is voting for or against the candidate based on ideology and the furtherance of the country.

[MomCares]

Originally Posted by Potemkin

However, in an analysis of the impact of political conventions since 1960, Sabato concluded that post-convention polls signal the election's outcome only about half the time. "You could flip a coin and be about as predictive," he says. "It is really surprising how quickly convention memories fade."

Yup.

The Republican's ties to President Bush remains a vulnerability. In the poll, 63% say they are concerned he would pursue policies too similar to those of the current president. Bush's approval rating is 33%.

Yup.

• Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a national unknown before McCain chose her for the ticket 10 days ago, draws a strong reaction from voters on both sides. Now, 29% say she makes them more likely to vote for McCain, 21% less likely.

Obama's choice of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden as running mate made 14% more likely to vote for the Democrat, 7% less likely.

It's encouraging to see that 21% are less likely to vote for McCain due to his odd choice of running mate.


MomCares

[free ranger]

Originally Posted by dyrt

This idea that only the religious right are racists is easily proven false. There is a lot of information on this subject. Recently, an analysis of the primary voting patterns showed that about 15% of Democrats would not vote for a "black."

And let's not forget the women haters. Their vile and angry language in discussing women of power gives them away. There is obviously a significant amount of people that would never vote for/against a person based on the gender.

Yep, there is still racism and sexism in our society but it is obvious that the feelings are in both major political parties. I expect that in the end they will cancel each other out and not be a factor in the vote totals.

Polls show that 90 - 95% of blacks will vote for Obama. I think that also shows racism.

[Ter]

Polls show that 90 - 95% of blacks will vote for Obama. I think that also shows racism.

Everybody knows that but you are not allowed to say it openly. Only white people may be accused of racism and only males can be accused of sexism.

I beleive the Democrats were so certain to win the next election that there was a feeling that anyone would be electable on their ticket. They came up with a person of colour and a female as the top candidates. A risky strategy I believe.

Ter

[Michael]

Originally Posted by Ter

Everybody knows that but you are not allowed to say it openly. Only white people may be accused of racism and only males can be accused of sexism.

I beleive the Democrats were so certain to win the next election that there was a feeling that anyone would be electable on their ticket. They came up with a person of colour and a female as the top candidates. A risky strategy I believe.

Ter

I agree with you about the concepts of racism and sexism, if valid, should work both ways. I have heard about the 95% of African Americans voting for Obama, and I have yet to see that happen. He has high percentages of both African American voters and young voters.

The problem with raising that issue is that African Americans have had no choice but to vote for white middle aged men or not vote at all, and there has been no issue raised about that situation, even though at times it has been very low African American voter turn out.

You make it sound as if Obama winning the primaries was pre planned. It wasn't. I liked Bill Richardson and I think there were more qualified people in the race at the beginning.

And look at who he was running against in the primaries. Many people voted against Hillary for various reasons. I had a very basic trust issue with her and votinig for her would have been a vote to have Bill in the news for the next four years. Then I had to think of Bill being the first lady. Actually, I thought of him with all that time to hang out with the interns at the white house.

There is a sheeple factor for both parties. It is not about who is most qualified to be president, it is how effectively a person can be packaged and sold to the general public.

For example, my number one issue has been government debt and the only candidate to consistently address this issue with any real competency has been Ron Paul.

[Ter]

I have heard about the 95% of African Americans voting for Obama, and I have yet to see that happen.

Is there any reason for you to doubt that ? Of course they are going to vote for Obama. Ethnicity always comes first. Look at that fat chick Oprah, she is black and a woman and chose Obama instead of Hilary. Colour comes first.

Ter

[Renegade]

The problem with raising that issue is that African Americans have had no choice but to vote for white middle aged men or not vote at all, and there has been no issue raised about that situation

why should there be an issue raised about it when it really shouldn't matter? what difference does it make that only white men have been there choice? They should be voting on merits, qualifications and ideologies, not color to begin with. The fact that there is a black (sorta) man running now SHOULD be irrelevant.

The fact that it's not says it all about the majority of voters in this country.

[Flint]

Polls show that 90 - 95% of blacks will vote for Obama. I think that also shows racism.

Yes indeed. When an all-black jury acquitted OJ, 97% of whites thought they made the wrong decision, and only 7% of blacks agreed. The evidence was as close to irrelevant as happens in this world.

And while I don't expect such a drastically bimodal distribution in the election (noise like party affiliation enters in), I think race remains decisive in the US. Ter is right. Race trumps gender, it trumps party affiliation, it even trumps positions on abortion and birth control - according to polls, a great many violently anti-abortion blacks are voting for Obama, and a great many pro-choice feminist types are voting for McCain. Race is primary.