ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Cut Payrolls by 473,000 in June

[Renegade]

By Courtney Schlisserman

July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Companies in the U.S. cut more jobs than forecast in June, according to a private report today, showing the labor market will be slow to improve even as other parts of the economy indicate the recession is abating.

The 473,000 drop in the ADP Employer Services gauge followed a revised reduction of 485,000 workers in May that was smaller than previously estimated.

Job losses may mount as the bankruptcies of General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC ripple through manufacturing. Increased firings threaten to further restrain consumer spending at a time when the world’s largest economy is showing signs of stabilizing.

“The labor market is still pretty lousy,” Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York, said before the report. “The underlying conditions are still pretty terrible.”

Economists forecast the ADP report would show a decline of 395,000 jobs, according to the median of 29 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from decreases of 280,000 to 532,000.

A Labor Department report tomorrow may show employers cut 363,000 workers from payrolls in June and unemployment rose to a 26-year high of 9.6 percent. The increase from May’s 9.4 percent jobless rate would be the smallest since November 2008.

Job cut announcements in June fell 9 percent to 74,393, the fewest in more than a year, from 81,755 in June 2008, Chicago- based placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc., also reported today. It was the first year-over-year decrease since February 2008.

To contact the reporter on this story: Courtney Schlisserman in Washington cschlisserma@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: July 1, 2009 08:17 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aKrjCwnY23L4

[BirdGuano]

Around half a million per MONTH, for the past year.

Pretty soon that's gonna leave a mark on the
consumer economy.

Green shoots everywhere !!!!

[leistb]

Can someone with higher math skills than I, explain to me how you have initial unemployment claims averaging around 600K per week +/-, and only lose around 475K jobs for the month?

[Fiddlerdave]

Originally Posted by leistb

Can someone with higher math skills than I, explain to me how you have initial unemployment claims averaging around 600K per week +/-, and only lose around 475K jobs for the month?

Note these are initial claims figures, not the total number on unemployment. Some of the people already ON unemployment got jobs, also some people (of whom there are many) who were NOT getting unemplyment got jobs too.

"Green shoots", indeed. It is interesting that losing 500,000 jobs/mo is viewed with such positivity as compared to losing 600,000/mo. The difference between approaching brick walls at 60 MPH as compared to 70 MPH is pretty academic.

[leistb]

Originally Posted by Fiddlerdave

Note these are initial claims figures, not the total number on unemployment. Some of the people already ON unemployment got jobs, also some people (of whom there are many) who were NOT getting unemplyment got jobs too.

"Green shoots", indeed. It is interesting that losing 500,000 jobs/mo is viewed with such positivity as compared to losing 600,000/mo. The difference between approaching brick walls at 60 MPH as compared to 70 MPH is pretty academic.

I agree with the basic premise of your post. My point is the numbers don't jive with the anecdotal testimonials from various blogs and forums as well as official numbers being released through the media (not gov't press releases) of areas directly affected with severe unemployment. When you've got areas like Michigan, the western states and others with double-digit unemployment numbers that in aggregate arrive at roughly 2.4 million initial claims each month; we're not hearing about the 1.9 million positions that have been filled to arrive at a net loss of 500K. Who is doing the hiring? And if there is that much hiring going on why are productivity numbers going up the way they are?

One barometer is www.layoffdaily.com. And in looking at that on a regular basis there was a noticeable drop in both the numbers of firms laying off in February and March but a discernible ramp since April. The recent reports of mass layoffs (50 or more in a given firm) reaching record levels in April and May support my assertion that the unemployment numbers being given by the gov't are bullsh*t.