Unless the flu mutates, and it hasn't yet, we will see only .006% to .0006% deaths, or about 1160 to 11,600.
My best scientific wild ass guess is at 3- 6 K.
There is absolutely zero, zero, zero data that implies any higher death rate, aka CFR, and much much much data that implies the lower bound.
Of course, with a mutation, all bets are off.
This wave, at least, we're good. And we are still dealing with first wave strain. Will their be a second wave strain? The science is still not clear on that.
So far, I've been right since March, about the progress of this strain.
We have NOT seen any of Pablo's SODs (tm) that have played out.
from my JUne 23rd post at fluwiki
I have maintained since April that we are in the midst of a mild, low to ultra low CFR pandemic. Indeed, I have calculated that we are in the midst of .006% to .0006% CFR based upon the early CARs of 40-60%, that we saw in the school outbreaks.
I have also maintained the position, that Mexiflu can mutate and have been watching for what I call the Symptoms of Doom (SOD).
SOD I - Any symptom that would suggest that influenza has begun to attack cells within the lymphatic or circulatory system. Reports of buboles, skin eruptions, skin turning black, bleeding from orifices...
So far, so good. Unlike H5N1, we haven't seen reports with these words in them yet.
SOD II - Clusters of death - Clusters of death are probably the scariest, and Mr. Niman's made up "cluster" not withstanding, need to be tracked the closest. Regardless of the mechanism of death, clusterization of deaths mean that the virus has become more lethal, while maintaining it's transmissability.
SOD III - Sudden Death (from first symptom to death within 48 hours). This symptom means that the virus has changed to a form that kills in a way that almost prevents treatment, as well as is the scariest for the public, as this will cause the most panic among parents and cause a massive tidal wave of the worried well.
While we have seen sudden death syndrome, it is sporadic and widespread. Only two cases of two person clusters of death have appeared in the MSM. The ohio siblings, and a recent case in Florida of siblings. And we haven't seen any 1918 death symptoms reported.