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Old 02-20-2010, 11:22 AM   #1
leistb
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Default A math problem at the Labor Department?

A math problem at the Labor Department?

Friday, February 19, 2010


#fullpost{display:inline;} This morning's inflation report is generating all sorts of headlines about core consumer prices falling for the first time since 1982. In looking at the screen shot of the detailed data from the Labor Department below, there is clearly some sort of a math problem associated with changes that were recently made to category weightings (note that only the relevant data is included below from a much larger table).


Looking at the weighting (Relative importance) and the indentation on the left to determine which categories are sub-categories of others it becomes clear that you can't get the large negative number of -0.5 percent circled in red from the data circled in blue.

It appears that they are mistakenly weighting the -2.1 percent decline for lodging away from home at a much higher level and, since housing is a major component of core inflation, the first negative reading in 28 years was the result.


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Old 02-20-2010, 01:26 PM   #2
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Old 02-20-2010, 03:47 PM   #3
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"A math problem at the Labor Department?"
Nope. A political troothiness problem.
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Old 02-20-2010, 09:37 PM   #4
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This is only HALF the picture!

What is TRULY amazing is that during the MASSIVE home price runup of 2002-2008, the housing costs did not "increase" either, the "equivalent rent" wiped out the payment increases then too!

Through the magical math of our Labor department, whether or not prices go up or down, it is ALWAYS CHEAPER to live in our fair country!!

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