Oil Slick Won't Be Gone by Hurricane Season

[Sysiphus]

The attached is a useful link on potential storm surges: Wunderground. SLOSH models produce a possible 38 1/2 feet. However, this is based on unique topography and orientation of the coastline. There is probably somewhere in the world that a combination of tides, storm surge and wave action could result in water being 50 feet above MSL along the coast, or perhaps even a bit higher than that. However, given the coastline, I don't think Tampa is that area. It would take somewhere like Bangledesh and a very wide swathe of winds pushing water into a narrowing gulf with a very gradual decrease in the normal water depth. The problem with Tampa is that, while it is a nice, large, shallow bay, the area in general is on a part of the FL Gulf Coast that juts out a bit into the Gulf. Appalachee Bay (S of Tallahassee) is more the type of topography that I could see leading to an exceptional surge.

[Key]

Originally Posted by flourbug

In 2004 (and I wish I could remember the name of the storm or the Cat expected) they were saying 25' surge over the Bay to Bridge from Clearwater to Tampa.

.

It was Hurricane Charley. Forecast to hit Tampa as Cat 3. Instead hit Punta Gorda (South of Tampa) as a small but powerful Cat 4.

[flourbug]

The University of Tampa is just about where the star is for the City of Tampa. While it doesn't look like a storm surge would be 40' high, it's high enough to do a lot of damage.

[Twoolf]

Originally Posted by Key

It was Hurricane Charley. Forecast to hit Tampa as Cat 3. Instead hit Punta Gorda (South of Tampa) as a small but powerful Cat 4.

And cut my power for 7 days even all the way up in Citrus County. He was a nasty one......

[flourbug]

Same here. We stayed in our RV and ran the generator. The humidity was so high it was like breathing soup.

[Twoolf]

I borrowed a generator, but it was not big enough to run the HVAC. I now have 3 small window units. I will NOT fight that kind of humidity trying to sleep again. It was so hot and wet even the computers gave up.

[DryHeat]

From the report I read about the Tampa oaks, I figured the surge was in the 25-30' range. Given that was from something like 1840 and "tops of trees only visible" wasn't really a measurement as such. However, I was born and raised in Tampa and paid a LOT of attention to the storm threat there while I was in high school in the '60's.

[caonacl]

.....

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and I predict the emergence of La Niña by July. Since La Niña events tend to bring lower amounts of wind shear to the tropical Atlantic, we can expect a much more active Atlantic hurricane season than usual in 2010. Since 2010 is similar to 1998 in the behavior of the El Niño/La Niña cycle, it is possible that this year's hurricane season could resemble the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1502

[caonacl]

Originally Posted by caonacl

.....

http://www.accuweather.com/video/731...ven-louder.asp

[caonacl]

More than 3,200 miles away a tropical something may brew
http://blogs.palmbeachpost.com/eyeon...hing-may-brew/

At 2 p.m., the National Hurricane Center in Miami announced the system of bad weather far to the southeast of us spent the afternoon getting “better organized” and now has a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next 48 hours - that’s an improvement over the 8 a.m. forecast that pinned its chances at 30 percent.

[caonacl]

Accuweather Video

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