New Official Leak Estimates from .gov...

[CanadaSue]

As per CNN - I'll find a reference after turning my chicken. After measurements, (not sure using what) & study of the high resolution videos, govt. Scientists are now giving leak estimates in the range of 35,000 - 60,000 barrels per day & said 15,000 barrels are being captured daily.

Then it got a little odd. Some environmental advisor to the govt. - I didn't catch her name - said that BP was actually capturing 25,000 barrels per day... first time I've heard that number & that they were gearing up to capture 60,000 - 80,000 barrels per day or pretty near all of what's spilling. 80,000?

I'll grab a reference in a few minutes.

[CanadaSue]

Link:

http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/06/15/oil...pt=T1&iref=BN1

[dharma]

The leak is accelerating as erosion takes out more and more of the well structure. They are thinking ahead.

[DReynolds]

Yeah, BP is going for 80k capture capacity. Dharma is probably right, they are anticipating things will get worse.

[rootdiggr]

Right now the front page of foxnews.com is saying up to 2.52 MILLION gallons a day. The link says scientists are estimating between 1.47M and 2.52M.

Does anybody really know anything?

[rb.]

Gallons and barrels are two different things, root.

[Exodia]

Originally Posted by rootdiggr

Does anybody really know anything?

I can assure you that I don't!

[gsgs]

Science Now : 60000 Barrels per day
Los Angeles Times : 35000 to 60000 barrels per day
StreetInsider.com : 60K
Matt Simmons Revises Leak Estimate To 120000 Barrels Per Day, Believes Oil ...
Before It's News - ‎Vor 4 Stunden‎
The Flow Rate Technical Group declared Tuesday the well is spewing 35000 to 60000 barrels per day,
The company has outlined plans to bring in additional ships and equipment to boost its total collection capacity to 40000-53000 barrels per day by the end
New BP oil spill flow estimates: 20000 to 40000 barrels per day
Christian Science Monitor - ‎11.06.2010‎
BP versprochen, bis Ende Juni täglich 7,5 Millionen Liter Öl aus der defekten Leitung absaugen zu können - bisher sind es 2,3 Millionen Liter pro Tag. ...
Acht Millionen Liter am Tag Südwest Presse
Ölpest: 6'400'000 Liter pro Tag laufen ins Meer SF Tagesschau
Experten bezweifeln BP-Angaben Spiegel Online

[rootdiggr]

Originally Posted by rb.

Gallons and barrels are two different things, root.

Thereby showing that I also know nothing. And that Fox was going for the sensational, to catch the gullible and headline skimmers. I did read (well, scan) the article, but I failed to catch the difference in the measurements being used.

[rb.]

I missed it the first time around, too, root. I don't think Fox is going for the sensational, I've read and heard many discussions and reports using gallons, just like some talk in barrels. Whatever unit of measure they use, it's just a plain disaster.

[DReynolds]

Originally Posted by rb.

Whatever unit of measure they use, it's just a plain disaster.

And getting worse. We have
1) a constant upward revision in the amount that has been leaking since day one. From 1k to 5k to 12k to 19k to 25k to 35k to 60k. (Hate to say I told you but I've been saying from day one that it was closer to 50k than 5k)

2) a situation that is almost certain to get worse, not better, over the next few months. The leak rate will increase over the coming months. If the casing fails, it might gush 100k bpd for years with no hope realistic hope of redress.

[DReynolds]

This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.

-T.S. Eliot

[dharma]

There is considerable evidence to suggest that the initial leak may have been as low as 1000 barrels/day. Unfortunately, this is not good news. It means that erosion of the well structure (including a partially closed blowout preventer and a subpar but mostly intact cement job) has multiplied flow fifty-fold, and that the entire structure of the well could be lost. At that point, there would be simply a large open hole: an oil volcano. A catastrophe. We are currently seeing a race against time to get the relief wells down before this happens.

Incidentally, all those early "lies" about the flow rate didn't come from BP. BP refused to estimate flow, and the Coast guard made the estimates, which BP was forced to parrot. I had heard this from some of the pros, but had been unable to verify it till Admiral Thad Allen confirmed it this weekend.

[DReynolds]

Originally Posted by dharma

There is considerable evidence to suggest that the initial leak may have been as low as 1000 barrels/day.

Can you elaborate? I'm not aware of that.

[dharma]

Well, part of that number is per some of the guys on the pro investing boards and I can't find the direct quote, so you're welcome to take it as hearsay. Here's an article that says something similar and elaborates on the erosion problem, though:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6609

[dharma]

You might find this interesting (note the date):

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd....sg&mid=9009150

"TODD1956" is accorded a great deal of credibility on the boards. Not sure where the "end of the month" estimate came from, though.

[DReynolds]

Take a look at the cam feed from Enterprise ROV 2. It sure looks to me like the bop is listing severely to the right. Looks like it's about to fall over actually. Wonder if I'm seeing that right?

http://mxl.fi/bpfeeds2/

[flourbug]

Jason's father said exactly what TODD1956 posted - they'll drill a relief well to intersect and take the pressure off the well and then cap it.

Unless they nuke it first. Anything the government touches goes from bad to a total disaster.

[DReynolds]

Cool video of the Russians using a nuke to seal a well:

You Tube

[Potemkin]

Originally Posted by flourbug

Jason's father said exactly what TODD1956 posted - they'll drill a relief well to intersect and take the pressure off the well and then cap it.

Unless they nuke it first. Anything the government touches goes from bad to a total disaster.

Heck, I will post a little of what todd1956 said:

I was informed that the best estimate my friend had on day one of flow rates was about 8,000 bbls/day. This guess was based on several facts known about the well before the accident. The well was capable of producing approximately 15,000 bbl/day in optimum conditions with back pressure of 5300psi being held against the formation. Their estimated flow rate is being based on a 2100psi hydostatic head with the BOP somewhat less than fully opened. The rate is probably also constricted according ny source by three major kinks of unknown proportions in the pipe preceeding the escape hole.

The government reported volumes have been based mostly on sheen rates intially and then increased with analysis of video of the leak later. My friend told me that they really have no idea of how much is leaking nor does any government or media person.

[DReynolds]

The well was capable of producing approximately 15,000 bbl/day in optimum conditions with back pressure of 5300psi being held against the formation.

Well this turned out to be wildly off. And I fear it displays confusion between what a well produces and what a well is capable of leaking if the bop is open.

A deepwater GOM well like this might produce 15k or 20k a day once its in production, which means that the O&G flows thru pipes on the sea floor. But if the BOP is off, it can leak much more than its design specs. It can leak 100k or more a day.

I understand there was a well that blew out in 1919 (on land) and it spewed 300k bpd for a time.

[dharma]

Originally Posted by DReynolds

It sure looks to me like the bop is listing severely to the right. Looks like it's about to fall over actually. Wonder if I'm seeing that right?

I hope not. As you know, there are inclinometers on at least two of the ROVs, and the rumor is that they're using these to measure the BOP's tilt, the thought being that the seabed support, such as it is, is being washed away and all that's left to hold the very heavy BOP in position is the relatively fragile riser pipe.

What a freakin' nightmare.

There are/were plans to surface-anchor the BOP to a couple of barges. Not sure about the status of this.

[dharma]

Originally Posted by DReynolds

Well this turned out to be wildly off. And I fear it displays confusion between what a well produces and what a well is capable of leaking if the bop is open.

The best well recorded in the deepwater GOM so far (Thunder Horse) flowed 25,000 bbl/d full open and pumped. Wells are generally not produced anywhere near maximum flow; it damages the formations. There is nothing to suggest this is a better well than Thunder Horse.

The estimates were correct, I think—for an intact well.

[DReynolds]

Originally Posted by dharma

The best well recorded in the deepwater GOM so far (Thunder Horse) flowed 25,000 bbl/d full open and pumped. There is nothing to suggest this is a better well than Thunder Horse.

That 25k is flowing through a production pipe. The top of the LMRP is a lot wider (2 feet?) and presumably allows for much higher flow. This is (again presumably) how we are getting flow rates of 35k to 60k right now from Macondo.

[dharma]

Originally Posted by DReynolds

The top of the LMRP is a lot wider (2 feet?) and presumably allows for much higher flow.

But the LMRP is not the flow limiting structure. The casing at the bottom of the well is only 7", remember?