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Old 01-17-2011, 10:19 PM   #1
Ought Six
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Arrow U.S. Geological Survey says superstorm could hit California, dumping *ten feet* of rain

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0117142512.htm
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Old 01-17-2011, 11:06 PM   #2
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And the sky might fall too. Chicken Little must work for these guys. Withthe right misinformation and results can be found.

I think chocolate pudding will cover Nebraska but to be sure of my data I need $8 billion bucks and a few yrs to research the idea.
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Old 01-17-2011, 11:22 PM   #3
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Arrow

oar:

I think that geological flood data might be a little more substantial evidence of possible extreme weather events than your response tries to imply.
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Old 01-17-2011, 11:36 PM   #4
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Yet another reason not to live in California. Even though an ArkStorm is well below the more prevalent threats of a) Cal government b) earthquakes and c) firestorms, it nonetheless serves to dissuade me from the California dream.
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Old 01-17-2011, 11:38 PM   #5
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Got to admit though 06, that the scenario is very hypothetical. It would take a very specific SET of circumstances. It seems pretty unlikely. Not impossible, but very unlikely.
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Old 01-17-2011, 11:52 PM   #6
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Arrow

I do not think that 'hypothetical' is quite the right word. Evidence shows that does happen, but it happens very infrequently. The chances of it happening in our lifetimes is probably small. However, the climate is changing and becoming more unstable, so wild weather events like that could be more likely now than in the last 150 years, where we had a very mild, stable weather cycle.
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Old 01-18-2011, 12:23 AM   #7
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The Central Valley doesn't look like a giant lake bed for nothing...
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Old 01-18-2011, 06:32 AM   #8
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Floody January

So far:
Severe flooding in Australia, Sri Lanka, Brazil and South Africa.
Lighter flooding in Sweden, Germany, UK and USA
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Old 01-18-2011, 04:11 PM   #9
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A fascinating account of the 1862 flood.....

http://www.redlandsfortnightly.org/papers/Taylor06.htm
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Old 01-18-2011, 04:35 PM   #10
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Arrow 'The Luck of Roaring Camp', by Bret Harte

http://www.classicshorts.com/stories...aringCamp.html
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Old 01-18-2011, 06:28 PM   #11
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The Bucks Lake weather station (near Placerville IIRC) got about 55 inches in a 4 day period during the 1986 storm. There is absolutely no reason that there could not be back-to-back storms like the 1986 storm. Indeed, it is a statistical certainty, with the only question being how often it happens. Since 1986, NorCal has been in a relatively dry spell, but the PDO is cyclical.
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Old 01-18-2011, 06:33 PM   #12
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Arrow

Since a flood that put the central valley under water so deep it covered the the tops of telegraph poles occurred only 139 years ago, the probability of it happening again in our lifetimes is probably a lot higher than I thought.
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Old 01-18-2011, 06:56 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ought Six View Post
Since a flood that put the central valley under water so deep it covered the the tops of telegraph poles occurred only 139 years ago, the probability of it happening again in our lifetimes is probably a lot higher than I thought.
I think so too. I shudder to think what will happen given the number of homes in areas that we flooded previously and the appalling state of the levee system. It will give Katrina a run for her money (literally).
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Old 01-18-2011, 06:57 PM   #14
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With the area and number of people involved, it would be a disaster many times worse than Katrina. All that water would have to flow out through the Sacramento River delta region. The entire city of Sacramento would be underwater, as would everything south all the way down to Bakersfield, and north all the way up to Redding. And the lake along the Santa Ana River floodplain would wipe out most of the southern part of the Los Angeles metro area. I would assume that much the same would happen to the floor of the San Fernando Valley, and the other valleys connecting the L.A. basin.

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Old 01-18-2011, 07:01 PM   #15
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why do you think the central valley is such good farm land? Cause it floods from time to time LOL
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Old 01-18-2011, 08:09 PM   #16
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Another question is which of California's dams could survive such a flow of water, and which could not? If something like Shasta Lake lost its dam when full, the destruction would be truly awesome.
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Old 01-18-2011, 08:11 PM   #17
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I highly doubt the dams are engineered to withstand such events. Unlike the South, California is not prone to hurricanes and tropical storms are rare. So, I don't think high impact events like those you see with tropical weather systems were factored in when they designed the dams.
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