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Old 02-16-2011, 02:06 PM   #1
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Arrow Two Iranian military vessels transiting the Suez Canal to visit Syria

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-Ne...6641297684095/
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Old 02-16-2011, 02:58 PM   #2
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Hezbollah leader warns of border conflict



Hezbollah's leader told his Shiite guerrilla group Wednesday to be prepared to invade northern Israel, a day after Israel's defense minister warned that the quiet along the tense border could erupt into violence.
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Old 02-16-2011, 03:04 PM   #3
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Because things weren't interesting enough.

I don't pretend to know enough about the deep-rooted conflict between Israel and its regional neighbors to comment on who is and who isn't justified in their respective actions. However, it does appear to me that a lack of international political will to keep Iran in check will inevitably force Israel's hand. For those of you with more background; is this one of those moments?
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Old 02-16-2011, 03:15 PM   #4
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Oh, for goodness' sake. Why in the world do the Iranians want to push a confrontation with the Israelis? Do they really think they could win if push comes to shove? Did you see the picture of the Iranian "warship"? I'm pretty sure that thing could fit in my bathtub.

One supposes they are trying to whip something up to take their subjects' minds off regime change at home, but they are playing a dangerous game.

edited to add a note to leistb: I don't pretend to expertise, but I follow the region more closely than most as part of my business. I think that, yes, Israel's hand is being forced; the Iranians are gambling they may lose a couple of ships at most, and that Israel will not take things any farther than that. In return, they get stability at home, at least for a few months to a year. It's a hell of a gamble.
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Old 02-16-2011, 03:24 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dharma View Post

edited to add a note to leistb: I don't pretend to expertise, but I follow the region more closely than most as part of my business. I think that, yes, Israel's hand is being forced; the Iranians are gambling they may lose a couple of ships at most, and that Israel will not take things any farther than that. In return, they get stability at home, at least for a few months to a year. It's a hell of a gamble.
Thanks for the perspective.
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Old 02-16-2011, 03:47 PM   #6
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  • Delvar class (7)
    • Displacement: approx. 1,300 tons full load
    • Dimensions: 63.45 x 11 x 3.03 meters (208 x 36 x 10 ft)
    • Propulsion: 2 diesels, 2 shafts, 1,560 bhp (1,163 kW), 9-11 knots
    • Crew: 20
    • Armament: 1 dual 23 mm AA
    • Pakistani-built. Configurations vary. Completed 1978-82.
    • Can be used as mineplanters
  • Delvar class Cargo Ship Chiroo in 2010
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current...essels#Support

---

Name and configuration of the 7 Iranian Delvar class boats

Number Name Year Homeport Notes
-- Delvar ?? munitions lighter
-- Dayer ?? water tanker
-- Charak ?? cargo lighter
-- Chiroo ?? munitions lighter
-- Sirjan ?? water tanker
-- Dilim ?? cargo lighter
-- Souru ?? cargo lighter

http://www.hazegray.org/worldnav/mideast/iran.htm

Last edited by Samen; 02-16-2011 at 03:54 PM.
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Old 02-16-2011, 04:10 PM   #7
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Arrow

dh:
Quote:
"Did you see the picture of the Iranian "warship"?"
You have been taken in by the media. The pictured vessel was the military support ship that came along to support and refuel the actual warship, the Iranian light frigate Jamaran.



It carries a 76mm rapid-fire gun, various AA guns, anti-ship cruise missiles, SAMs, torpedoes and a helicopter. Its four Chinese C-802 anti-ship cruise missiles have a 80 mile range, a 400 pound penetrating warhead, and they go supersonic in the terminal attack phase. The SAMs carried by the ship are reverse-engineered versions of the U.S. Navy RIM-66 Standard, with a 90 mile range.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Frigate_Jamaran

While the Israelis could take this ship out rather easily, they must still be nervous. It does carry cruise missiles that could conceivably be modified to carry a nuclear warhead, and it will be steaming right up the entire length of their coast and back. Of course, the more realistic concern is that the support ship is very likely carrying a cargo of weapons for Hizbollah. No doubt it is also loaded with spy equipment.
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* I have the right to self-determination, thus I have the right to defend my liberty from tyrants who would take it from me.
* The only usable tools for these tasks are guns, and thus I have the right to shoot anyone who would take my guns from me.

Last edited by Ought Six; 02-16-2011 at 04:33 PM.
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Old 02-16-2011, 04:13 PM   #8
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Eh. Still meat on a platter for the Israeli navy/air force, especially on their own turf.
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Old 02-16-2011, 04:27 PM   #9
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Israel gave a pretty good show of their missiles to Finland and Sweden in 2009 in the north baltic sinking a decommissioned war ship, 2 bad Finland didn't purchase some.
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Old 02-17-2011, 02:53 AM   #10
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Did israel not send two nuclear capable submarines to the Persian gulf earlier ?
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Old 02-17-2011, 03:05 AM   #11
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Arrow

'Nuclear capable' means they can launch cruise missiles, which describes every modern attack sub in the world (including those of the Turkish Navy, which are the same basic type of German-made subs). There is no question that Iran has the right of free passage through the Suez Canal and Med. And yes, both Israel and Iran are sending each other messages with their naval presence off of each others' coasts.

But the difference is that Israel has not repeatedly said that Iran should be destroyed, 'wiped off the map', 'disappear from history', and etcetera. There are no regular government-sponsored marches of fanatics in Israel where the official slogan, 'death to Iran!', is shouted over and over. Israel has not created, funded, armed and operated a suicide-bombing terrorist group that tries to blow up Iranian women and children every chance they get. See the difference?
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* I have the right to live, thus I have the right to defend my life from attackers who would take it from me.
* I have the right to my private property, thus I have the right to defend my property from thieves who would take it from me.
* I have the right to self-determination, thus I have the right to defend my liberty from tyrants who would take it from me.
* The only usable tools for these tasks are guns, and thus I have the right to shoot anyone who would take my guns from me.
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Old 02-17-2011, 04:21 AM   #12
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No I don't see a difference.

The only difference I see is if Israel bombs Iran you will applaud and find excuses for it, should the opposite happen you will be filled with rage ...

on the other hand, I will blame those who would harm the other ...
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Old 02-17-2011, 04:28 AM   #13
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O:
Quote:
"No I don't see a difference."
As expected. Suicide-bombing terrorist nations are 'the same' as Israel.
----------
Quote:
"The only difference I see is if Israel bombs Iran you will applaud and find excuses for it, should the opposite happen you will be filled with rage ..."
So taking out nuclear facilities of a nation sworn to wipe your nation off the map would be 'the same' as Iran using Hizbollah to bombard civilians with artillery rockets in an attempt to commit mass murder. Again, I am unsurprised.
----------
Quote:
"on the other hand, I will blame those who would harm the other ..."
Yes, we saw that with Turkey's treatment of the Kurds. You made no excuses there.... Oh, wait a minute.... Um, nevermind.
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* I have the right to live, thus I have the right to defend my life from attackers who would take it from me.
* I have the right to my private property, thus I have the right to defend my property from thieves who would take it from me.
* I have the right to self-determination, thus I have the right to defend my liberty from tyrants who would take it from me.
* The only usable tools for these tasks are guns, and thus I have the right to shoot anyone who would take my guns from me.
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Old 02-17-2011, 07:31 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ought Six View Post
O:As expected. Suicide-bombing terrorist nations are 'the same' as Israel.
----------So taking out nuclear facilities of a nation sworn to wipe your nation off the map would be 'the same' as Iran using Hizbollah to bombard civilians with artillery rockets in an attempt to commit mass murder. Again, I am unsurprised.
----------Yes, we saw that with Turkey's treatment of the Kurds. You made no excuses there.... Oh, wait a minute.... Um, nevermind.
Here we go again

Israel has rained phosphor cell bombed on civilians just 3 years ago,

Iran has no nuclear weapons, Israel has plenty, the fact that they have not specified a target does not make them safe .. On the other hand Ahmedinejad's alleged "We will wipe Israel off the map" speech was a distorted one to which the original source "The Guardian" has apologized later.

Original article :

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2005...=ILCNETTXT3487

Correction and Apology

http://www.guardian.co.uk/theguardia...clarifications

A comment concerning most of the Western Media

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...=ILCNETTXT3487

By the way

Quote:
"the regime occupying Jerusalem must vanish from the page of time"


similarly


Quote:
"the regime occupying Tehran must vanish from the page of time"


Turkey's treatment of Kurds ? Turkish Citizen Kurds are now recieving their apologies and their civil rights (according to EU standards ), the Northern Iraqi Kurds are Turkey's best buddies in the region ...

Last edited by Oric; 02-17-2011 at 07:39 AM.
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Old 02-17-2011, 07:47 AM   #15
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Iranian leadership has been trying desperately to publicly inject themselves into the uprisings of the Middle East like any good politicians would do. They want to appear to be the greater power because loyalties are in flux. They are presenting their case for regional Iranian leadership.

Iranian leaders know, as most the world, that U.S. leadership is in a state of confusion and can not counter the message.
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Old 02-17-2011, 07:50 AM   #16
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dyrt : As you have pointed out there is a fierce competition between Iran and Turkey on the regional leadership position. Both countries play different cards, Turkey has soft power like culture & economy, Iran goes on the Shia union and the anti-Israel rheotoric. Turkey's intensfying friction with Israel is in a way a tool to counter balance Iran's influence ...
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Old 02-17-2011, 05:00 PM   #17
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And of course Iran needs to keep the pressure on their own people.

They elected more reform minded politicians like Khatami a time ago. That didn't really change much and then Big Satan moved in next door in 2003. Plenty of Iranians want a change but they get shot in the streets or end up in prisons.
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Old 02-17-2011, 06:42 PM   #18
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Still, right now, Iran seems to be good at two things, bullshit bluster, and killing its own citizens. Those who consider Israel "just as bad" would do well to remember that 2nd part.

Justify it, I fxxkin dare ya.
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Old 02-17-2011, 10:22 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oric View Post
dyrt : As you have pointed out there is a fierce competition between Iran and Turkey on the regional leadership position. Both countries play different cards, Turkey has soft power like culture & economy, Iran goes on the Shia union and the anti-Israel rheotoric. Turkey's intensfying friction with Israel is in a way a tool to counter balance Iran's influence ...
I understand that and Turkey's leadership is certainly better behaved that Iran's. But the flotilla of thugs that came out of Turkey in an attempt to bust through the Naval blockade was a real eye opener to me and makes me suspicious of some of the leadership. Even though Turkey endeared themselves to many in the Middle East, it was not exactly soft power.

Turkey's massive and modern military is what makes soft power possible. And who contributed to that buildup?

In addition, the Iranian leadership worships death and thinks that the greatest virtue is to kill and die. Another word for soft power is appeasement and the world is soaked in blood from those that were convinced their money and words would tame the barbarians. In fact, a study of conquered cultures shows that those groups that are most willing to kill and die win most often.

There is nothing wrong with soft power if you can afford it. How much and what actions is Turkey taking to support the Egyptian people? I can't find anything.

Even if Turkey was giving half of GDP in an attempt to show a better path for the oppressed of the world, sometimes it is good to have a big mean army.
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Old 02-17-2011, 10:39 PM   #20
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O:
Quote:
"Israel has rained phosphor cell bombed on civilians just 3 years ago,"
False. If they had done that, we would have seen piles of burned bodies and flaming homes and apartment blocks. They rained WP on Hamas fighters who were trying to set up near buildings to use civilians as human shields. In one case, a few stray chunks of WP landed in a UN compound and started a fire in a warehouse. None of the other buildings got any WP on them. In several other cases, civilians being used as human shields got burned badly. Hamas used civilian clothes to make it so that IDF forces had great difficulty in telling the Hamas terrorists from civilians. Hamas wanted a big civlian body count of their own people to use a propaganda weapon.
----------
Quote:
"Iran has no nuclear weapons...."
Wow! You know what nobody else knows. You must be psychic!
----------
Quote:
".... Israel has plenty, the fact that they have not specified a target does not make them safe .. "
We have been over and over this BS non-argument. Israel has proven to be an extremely responsible nation. Even when they were about to be overrun in the Yom Kippur War, they did not use nukes. Iran is a fanatical terrorist state that must never be allowed to have nukes so long as they remain a terrorist state. End of story.
----------
Quote:
"On the other hand Ahmedinejad's alleged "We will wipe Israel off the map" speech was a distorted one to which the original source "The Guardian" has apologized later."
I think the wide variety of comments he has made on the subject, combined with the 'Death to Israel!' rallies make the truth quite clear to anyone with a brain and with even a single particle of honesty.
----------
Quote:
"Turkey's treatment of Kurds ? Turkish Citizen Kurds are now recieving their apologies and their civil rights (according to EU standards ), the Northern Iraqi Kurds are Turkey's best buddies in the region ..."
These would be the same 'best buddy' Kurds where Turkey briefly invaded Iraq, sent in troops and bombed them with attack aircraft? Sorry, I do not want to be Turkey's 'best buddy'.
----------

Once again, all your points fail.
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* I have the right to live, thus I have the right to defend my life from attackers who would take it from me.
* I have the right to my private property, thus I have the right to defend my property from thieves who would take it from me.
* I have the right to self-determination, thus I have the right to defend my liberty from tyrants who would take it from me.
* The only usable tools for these tasks are guns, and thus I have the right to shoot anyone who would take my guns from me.
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Old 02-18-2011, 01:02 PM   #21
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Via Stratfor... Egypt has approved passage of the two warships...
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Old 02-18-2011, 02:08 PM   #22
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They pretty much had to. Even though Iran is an enemy of Egypt, Egypt is bound by treaty and international law to allow free passage through the canal, even of warships.
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* I have the right to my private property, thus I have the right to defend my property from thieves who would take it from me.
* I have the right to self-determination, thus I have the right to defend my liberty from tyrants who would take it from me.
* The only usable tools for these tasks are guns, and thus I have the right to shoot anyone who would take my guns from me.
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Old 02-18-2011, 04:39 PM   #23
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Turkey is one of the few administrations who had th courage to tell Mubarak to listen to his people and go in peace when the demonstrations started... What did USA do for egypt for instance ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by dyrt View Post
I understand that and Turkey's leadership is certainly better behaved that Iran's. But the flotilla of thugs that came out of Turkey in an attempt to bust through the Naval blockade was a real eye opener to me and makes me suspicious of some of the leadership. Even though Turkey endeared themselves to many in the Middle East, it was not exactly soft power.

Turkey's massive and modern military is what makes soft power possible. And who contributed to that buildup?

In addition, the Iranian leadership worships death and thinks that the greatest virtue is to kill and die. Another word for soft power is appeasement and the world is soaked in blood from those that were convinced their money and words would tame the barbarians. In fact, a study of conquered cultures shows that those groups that are most willing to kill and die win most often.

There is nothing wrong with soft power if you can afford it. How much and what actions is Turkey taking to support the Egyptian people? I can't find anything.

Even if Turkey was giving half of GDP in an attempt to show a better path for the oppressed of the world, sometimes it is good to have a big mean army.
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Old 02-18-2011, 04:55 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oric View Post
Turkey is one of the few administrations who had th courage to tell Mubarak to listen to his people and go in peace when the demonstrations started... What did USA do for egypt for instance ?
What!! are you kidding? It was our great President's motivating speech to the people in Cairo late last year, that sewed the seeds of freedom into the hearts and minds of the people. It was he who gave them Hope that Change was possible.
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Old 02-18-2011, 04:59 PM   #25
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And I'm hopeful President Obama come to and do the same for all the people of Turkey too.
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