Economic indicators

[leistb]

Originally Posted by veggiecanner

You don't need all these graphs or finacial knowledge to figure out we are heading back down hill. All you have to do is go grocery shopping.

Perhaps one of the most profound set of statements of 2012.

[Ross]

Gas use down again .




.

[Oric]

http://www.infowars.com/35-shocking-...se-in-america/

[jane333]

I like charts. Groceries really vary.

Many food items stay within around a dollar of their ordinary price, perpetually. These usually include dairy, vegs, bakery etc. I've never seen a $10 loaf of bread or box of eggs, and I hope never to see one.

Other foods like steaks and seafood, however, go sky high no matter whether the cows and the halibut have gone on strike or not.

[veggiecanner]

So it's not our Imagination?

[Ross]

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com.au/

[gsgs]

Case Shiller:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/20...ll-to-new.html

(I still don't understand why falling house prices are generally being considered as "bad")


Intrade prediction of 2012 US-recession likelyhood

http://data.intrade.com/graphing/tem...1621419365.png

[Kassy]

Houses are a place to put your savings. In practice they're collateral to a loan.

Everybody who refinanced during the first half of the decade will lose a lot of money if they have to sell the house. Even if they pay of the loan they will have lost money in the process.

All this money will not be used for consumer spending on gadgets and services.

ETA: Intrade link doesn't work

[gsgs]

suppose people and companies invested a lot in -say- computers.
Now someone invents a new chip and computers become much cheaper.
Would that be bad news ? Should the chip be seized and kept secret ?
Or suppose people just realize that they don't really need expensive houses...
Bad news ?
Alternatively ... create a new houses-tax, making houses much more expensive and
getting additional money for the budget. Two flies with one clap.


http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/c...=1338211745703
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/c...etailID=755863

[Ross]

More gloom from the USA .

Continued activity decline indicated .



Source
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com.au/

[Ross]

Real personal income USA .

[Sonny]

U.S. job openings hit five-month low in April

Jun 19, 2012 By Lucia Mutikani

U.S. job openings dropped to a five-month low in April amid a widespread decline in vacancies in all sectors of the economy, underscoring the recent weakness in the labor market.

Job openings - a measure of labor demand - fell 325,000 to 3.42 million, the lowest level since November, the Labor Department said in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey on Tuesday.

Private sector vacancies dropped 282,000, the most since early 2009, to 3.08 million, while government job openings fell 42,000 to 336,000.

The report helps to explain the abrupt pull-back in job growth in April, which saw employers outside the farm sector adding a paltry 77,000 positions to their payrolls during the month after an increase of 143,000 in March.

"The report was soft, lending some credence to the view that the April-May slowing seen in the payroll report was real and not a statistical fluke," said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan in New York.

Economists had largely dismissed the step down in payrolls growth as payback for a warm winter that had pulled forward hiring into January and February. But that conviction was tested as employment growth softened further in May, signaling a more fundamental weakness in the economy.

With 12.5 million Americans out of work in April, the drop in vacancies means there are no jobs for more than two out of every three unemployed people.

The decrease in job openings in April was broad based, with manufacturing vacancies falling 62,000 to 246,000 - the lowest since November.

Professional and business services job openings dropped 108,000 to 679,000. Vacancies in the retail sector fell by 42,000 to 322,000.

With the number of unemployed outpacing available jobs, the report somewhat weakens the argument that much of the unemployment problem afflicting the economy is the result of a skills mismatch.

"Unemployed workers far outnumber job openings in every sector," said Heidi Shierholz, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute in Washington.

"This underscores that by far the main cause of today's persistent high unemployment is a broad-based lack of demand for workers and not, as is often claimed, available workers lacking the skills needed for the sectors with job openings."

A study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago published this month found little evidence to support the argument of a skills shortage driving up unemployment.

The job openings report also a showed a 68,000 increase in layoffs. While the level of layoffs is below the 2007 average, the rise in April could shed some light on why weekly jobless claims have remained elevated since the end of that month.

"The problem appears to be not so much a high rate of firing but rather a low rate of hiring," said JPMorgan's Feroli. "The low level of layoffs may also help explain why the jobless claims data did not do a particularly good job of signaling the recent slowing in job growth."

Total hires fell 160,000 in April. Net hiring - hires less separations - were 89,000.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/0...8HJ5LP20120619

~

[Sonny]

WTI Oil declines after China data, U.S. jobless claims
Futures struggle to hold $80 a barrel.



Crude for August delivery CLQ2 -2.73% shed $2.20, or 2.73%, to $79.23 a barrel in Thursday trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing...MW_story_quote

The contract’s struggling to hold the $80-a-barrel level on a “plethora of underwhelming economic data releases,” said Matt Smith, analyst with Summit Energy, in a note to clients.

If U.S. jobless claims for last week had diverged from the consensus forecast, it might have paved the way for a move below $80, he added.