Iran vs. the West

[Catbird]

"Iran Revolutionary Guard prepare for war"

"An order from Gen Mohammed Ali Jaafari, the commander of the guards, raised the operational readiness status of the country’s forces, initiating preparations for potential external strikes and covert attacks.

Western intelligence officials said the Islamic Republic had initiated plans to disperse long-range missiles, high explosives, artillery and guards units to key defensive positions. "


It's time. IF this is true, the timing of the "leaked" announcement goes along quite nicely with the missile drill/test fire that Syria held over the weekend.

( Couldn't fit all the possible enemies of Iran into the thread title, so I settled for this one. )

[Ought Six]

Could Iran’s Terror-Sponsoring General Become Its Next President?

[dyrt]

"Iran vs. the West" ?

A common mistake. Iran is against most of the Middle East too.

[Catbird]

True. But a title of "Iran vs. The World" just seemed a bit much.

Although... you never know.

[dyrt]

Some people think it is really Iran vs Saudi Arabia and the attacks on the West are just public relations for competing for the hearts and minds of Muslims. There is some truth to this and it is why I bother to point out the propaganda.

[Catbird]

I don't disagree that Iran and Saudi are arch-enemies and are playing a very complex game of shadow war. But for now, any overt action on the part of Iran is likely to be aimed at the U.S./Israel/EU. For now.

So in that sense, it is Iran vs. the West.

[Ought Six]

http://www.nationaljournal.com/has-t...0111204?page=1

Has the War with Iran Already Begun?

[Catbird]

Iran may soon hold a military exercise to practice its' ability to close the Straits of Hormuz.


"Iran army declines comment on MP's Hormuz exercise remarks"

"A member of the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee said on Monday that the military was set to practise its ability to close the Gulf to shipping at the narrow Strait of Hormuz, the most important oil transit channel in the world, but there was no official confirmation.

The legislator, Parviz Sarvari, told the student news agency ISNA: "Soon we will hold a military manoeuvre on how to close the Strait of Hormuz. If the world wants to make the region insecure, we will make the world insecure."

Contacted by Reuters, a spokesman for the Iranian military declined to comment."

[Ought Six]

Originally Posted by Catbird

Iran may soon hold a military exercise to practice its' ability to close the Straits of Hormuz.


"Iran army declines comment on MP's Hormuz exercise remarks"

"A member of the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee said on Monday that the military was set to practise its ability to close the Gulf to shipping at the narrow Strait of Hormuz, the most important oil transit channel in the world, but there was no official confirmation.

The legislator, Parviz Sarvari, told the student news agency ISNA: "Soon we will hold a military manoeuvre on how to close the Strait of Hormuz. If the world wants to make the region insecure, we will make the world insecure."

Contacted by Reuters, a spokesman for the Iranian military declined to comment."

I doubt they will actually do it. If they do, our Navy will perform one of its primary missions; safeguarding free navigation of international sea lanes. Since Barry O has been been taking a lot of criticism for having an accomidationist foreign policy, and not being tough on Iranian misconduct, I think he will be forced to take strong action.

On the Iranian side, it is hard to read the lunatics running the show over there. They have to know that there will be a military response if they try to close the Straits of Hormuz. They make constant empty military threats, so this may just be another one. Or, they could be out to provoke an attack on Iranian naval forces by closing the Straits to try and create domestic political solidarity against the American/western/Jewish threat, and to spin up outrage against an American 'unprovoked' attack on Iran. Or they may have some other motive we do not yet understand. We shall see.

[Ross]

.

Believing they have control of or can disable your UAVs
and god knows what else they are going to rub your nose
in it by forcing you to back down in public .

IMO you should get your carriers out of there until the UAV problem is
fixed then go back and practice closing all Iranian ports ( just a drill
of course ) .



.

[Ought Six]

Originally Posted by Ross

Believing they have control of or can disable your UAVs
and god knows what else they are going to rub your nose
in it by forcing you to back down in public .

IMO you should get your carriers out of there until the UAV problem is
fixed then go back and practice closing all Iranian ports ( just a drill
of course ) .

Ummm, no. They do not 'have control' of any such thing, nor will we back down in the face of their threats.

[Catbird]

I think it's interesting that this is getting relatively little play in the MSM. There's been little to no reaction to this "leak" and the price of oil even went down today. I suspect this lack of publicity annoys Iran.

As a result, I expect to see them increase the rhetoric and even make some diplomatic and minor military moves, in preparation for this "exercise". Among other things, Iran will point out that Turkey closed the Bosphorus Strait at the end of September for a 2 day exercise - so why can't Iran hold a similar event? Yadda, yadda...

I think they will hold an exercise, but it'll be similar in scope to a CPX (Command Post Ex), where units primarily act in theory and not in reality. That might also include missile and interdiction drills. Then, at the end of the "exercise" they'll announce that yes, they have proven that they could close the Straits, if they wanted to.

That's assuming of course, that the Ministry of Defense building doesn't blow up first...

And, my standard caveat applies here: Never overlook stupidity as an element of foreign policy.

[Catbird]

Here's some of that increased rhetoric, aimed at justifying a closure of the Straits.

From: Radio Free Europe

"A hard-line Iranian newspaper considered to speak for Iran's supreme leader has come out in support of closing the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, the world's most important oil shipping lane, as punishment against countries that have sanctioned Tehran over its suspect nuclear program.

A December 13 editorial in "Keyhan" asks, "Why has the Islamic Republic of Iran not used its unchallengeable right till now, when there is a conspiracy of imposing sanctions against our country's oil?" "

And, a synopsis of the editorial from the Tehran Times:

"Hossein Shariatmadari, the chief editor of the Kayhan newspaper, in the editorial of the December 13 edition of the daily, also said that under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the Islamic Republic has the right to close the Strait of Hormuz if its interests in the waterway are threatened.

Pointing to efforts made by certain Western countries to drum up support for the imposition of an oil embargo on Iran, he said that the UNCLOS allows Iran to close the waterway if it is deprived of its right to export oil.

If oil sanctions are imposed on Iran, there is no reason to allow the enemies that are known for their hostility toward Iran to ship oil through the strait, which lies within Iran’s territorial waters, he said.

Shariatmadari also cited excerpts of some articles of the UNCLOS to support his argument, which goes as follows:

Article 17 - Right of innocent passage
Subject to this Convention, ships of all States, whether coastal or land-locked, enjoy the right of innocent passage through the territorial sea.

Article 19 - Meaning of innocent passage:

Passage is innocent so long as it is not prejudicial to the peace, good order or security of the coastal State. Such passage shall take place in conformity with this Convention and with other rules of international law.

Article 25- Rights of protection of the coastal State:

A: The coastal State may take the necessary steps in its territorial sea to prevent passage which is not innocent.

B: The coastal State may, without discrimination in form or in fact among foreign ships, suspend temporarily in specified areas of its territorial sea the innocent passage of foreign ships if such suspension is essential for the protection of its security, including weapons exercises. Such suspension shall take effect only after having been duly published.

In conclusion, Shariatmadari said that if the United States, European countries, and their Asian allies like Japan impose oil sanctions on Iran, they will be effectively considered the enemies of the Islamic Republic and the passage of the tankers that carry oil for them cannot be regarded as “innocent”, so Iran can block the passage of the tankers to prevent the enemies, which seek to undermine its national security, from improving their capabilities."

[Auburn Boy]

Close straits of Hormuz = non-provocational behavior.

[Auburn Boy]

CNBC OIL PUNDIT: "Iran is FULL of HOT AIR, and I am adding to OIL SHORTS."

[Catbird]

So it's been a week or so since Iran stirred the pot. Not surprisingly, they're stirring it again.

There are now 2 more Iranian Members of Parliament supporting a closure of the Straits of Hormuz.

The Tehran Times quotes one: "MP Hossein Ebrahimi of the Majlis National Security and Foreign Policy Committee said on Sunday that if the Westerners impose oil sanctions on the Islamic Republic, Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz and will not allow other countries to export oil through the strategic waterway, IRNA reported."

And a report from the Pakistan Observer quotes another. "“The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not on the Islamic Republic of Iran’s agenda (at present), but if threats against Iran come to trample upon the rights of our nation while others use the strait for exporting their oil, then Iran will be entitled to the right to close the Strait of Hormuz,” Mohammad Taqi Rahbar told FNA on Monday."

While this is all still just rhetoric, I suspect that they're going to repeat this on a regular basis, just keep the idea fresh on everyone's mind.

But then, we're kind of doing the same thing. In unusually clear language, in a CBS interview yesterday SecDef Panetta said that Iran will not be allowed to develop a nuclear bomb.

"The U.S. Secretary of Defense said Monday night that Iran will not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon. In an interview, Leon Panetta, said despite the efforts to disrupt the Iranian nuclear program, the Iranians have reached a point where they can assemble a bomb in a year or potentially less.

...Panetta: If they proceed and we get intelligence that they are proceeding with developing a nuclear weapon then we will take whatever steps necessary to stop it.

Pelley: Including military steps?

Panetta: There are no options off the table"

I think we need a smilie thingie for a swiveling head - the kind of thing you do when you're watching two people hit a ball back and forth.

[Ought Six]

Obama is hot to prove what a 'tough, decisive leader' he is going into the 2012 campaign. I hope the idiot mullahs are not banking on a weak, fearful Obama that they can push around at will. That could be a very serious miscalculation. Of course, Barry O did not help their misperceptions by politely asking for our crashed drone back.

[Sonny]

Gulf Arab leaders on Tuesday broadly endorsed Saudi King Abdullah's call to form a "single entity" in what appeared to be an attempt to form a more united front against a perceived threat from Iran.


They're hoping to go it alone, Without Israel ? I think that is their hang-up.

They need Israel, They know the need Israel, but that burns them .

Hell They're hoping Israel does it for them....

We should let them work it out.


!

[Ought Six]

Originally Posted by Sonny

Gulf Arab leaders on Tuesday broadly endorsed Saudi King Abdullah's call to form a "single entity" in what appeared to be an attempt to form a more united front against a perceived threat from Iran.

I think the message to the Iranian ruling council is, 'you cannot pick off the weaker Gulf states one at a time'.
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They're hoping to go it alone, Without Israel ? I think that is their hang-up.

I think it very unlikely they will attack Iran on their own.
----------

They need Israel, They know the need Israel, but that burns them .

They will never admit that.
----------

Hell They're hoping Israel does it for them....

Israel, or us. If Israel does it, they will shout with joy behind closed doors. Publicly, they will be 'outraged' and chant 'death to Israel!'
----------

We should let them work it out.

If it did not affect us, I would agree. But a terrorist Iranian state with nuclear weapons is a threat to the survival of the human race. They could easily start a nuclear war that could go global. The last thing I want is another bombing campaign in the Middle East, but the number of choices we have is shrinking, and all the remaining ones suck.

[dyrt]

"Hossein Shariatmadari, the chief editor of the Kayhan newspaper, in the editorial of the December 13 edition of the daily, also said that under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the Islamic Republic has the right to close the Strait of Hormuz if its interests in the waterway are threatened.

Ah, that's nice. Iran wants to start obeying UN conventions. I am sure we will see them changing their behavior in many areas. lol.

Hossein, clutch that UNCLOS hard because the day Iran closes the straits, you can come running to New York with it to complain about what happens next.

Of course, it is all a moot point. Iran will not close the strait. This is just part of the bi-annual political posturing that the UN gins up.

[jhpigott]

Pajamas media has had some pretty decent scoops in the past. Will wait to see if this is confirmed by other sources.

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2011/12/20...owing-up-iran/

Wow, They’re Still Blowing Up Iran

Two more explosions today. One at the big refinery in Isfahan, the other at the very important Revolutionary Guards base in Kerman, which is the headquarters for the RG’s operations in the East (think Afghanistan, etc.).

I don’t have casualty figures yet, but the Kerman blast was a biggie.

I am told that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei hasn’t made a public appearance in more than two weeks. I don’t have any way to check this, but he certainly hasn’t been hogging the spotlight of late. That role is being played by the Iranian currency, the rial, which is in the same death spiral as the regime. It’s dropped from 1300-and-change to the dollar to 1500-plus in a couple of weeks. Maybe Khamenei doesn’t want to talk about the resounding success of his regime?

[Oric]

Well the title should read West vs Iran ...

What are the West's intentions

(1) Deny Iran to become a nuclear power ... Energy or military use is not the issue. There is a monopoly of nuclear technology and fuel production. This situation is strongly opposed by the majority of developing countries and Iran is the struggle point between West and the Rest on this issue. Although Iran is portrayed as an unstable, trigger happy country who will without doubt bomb Israel as soon as it gets hold of a nuke we are all aware that the issue is not about this. All the struggle to slow Iran will fail to suceed because you can not deny any country from a technology whose theoritical phase goes back to 1930'ies and technology in the '40ies. Given enough determination any country with a size can develop its own (see Pakistan and India), given no international pressure even a small country as Israel develop neuclear technology and nukes. So it is a up against the hill battle for the West to stop Iran. The nuclear power plants have already been built and started running.

(2) Force Iran to share its oil reserves and revenues with the International oil cartel. Iran knows that it has to give up a sizable portion of its oil revenues say 30% to oil giants. Today they get it 100% for themselves but have to pay a premium to get the oil money from the international payment system (see nuclear power excuse for banking embargo on Iran). If West can prove to sustain this cost to Iran indefinetly they will agree to pay the ransom directly by opening their industry to Western companies. This tug of war will come out with a result not later then the first 3-4 months of 2012. Iran has only one weapon, the threat to close Hurmuz and raise the oil prices, West has only weapon, to deny Iran to get foreign payments.

[Ross]

Wow, They’re Still Blowing Up Iran

Very very interesting .

Thank-you jhpigott


.

[Exodia]

And then there is this...

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran said on Wednesday five of its technicians had been kidnapped in the Syrian city of Homs, the semi-official Mehr news agency reported.

http://news.yahoo.com/iran-state-tv-...132025431.html

[Sonny]

5 Technicians missing? that's believable because anymore than that and someone? would have to ride in the trunk.
Iran says five of its citizens kidnapped in Syria

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Human prayer chain outside Isfahan uranium facility (Photo: EPA)
praying to their GOD,, Ali Ach BOMB