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06-24-2012, 10:19 AM
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#1
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fumbling around in the dark
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Debby
I'm starting a thread for Debby, which is now in the middle of the GoM. Spaghetti models over the last few days have shown Debby all over the place - from the Tex/Mex border to NOLA and down to Tampa Bay.
Latest info shows Debby moving towards the big bend of Florida, where a secondary convection has formed and is pulling the developing hurricane towards the coast.
Up to the minute news, links, and videos in our new breaking news feature CLICK HERE.
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06-24-2012, 12:24 PM
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#2
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it's time for the Guillotine, again
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An example of why they are called Spaghetti Models....Debby is a mess, for sure!
__________________
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"Man will never be free until the last politician is strangled with the entrails of the last priest." Voltaire or Diderot
“When you hear ‘no immediate danger‘ from nuclear radiation then you should run away as far and as fast as you can.”
-Alexey Yablokov, member of the Russian academy of sciences and adviser to President Gorbachev at the time of Chernobyl
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06-24-2012, 12:29 PM
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#3
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Simplify, Do or Die
Join Date: Aug 2008
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We like the westward models 
__________________
Life is short. Break the rules. Forgive quickly.
Kiss slowly. Love truly. Laugh uncontrollably,
and never regret anything that made you smile.
Women are Angels and when someone breaks our wings we simply continue to fly...on a broomstick. We are flexible like that
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06-24-2012, 01:19 PM
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#4
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it's time for the Guillotine, again
Join Date: Aug 2008
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Need some rain, there, eh?
__________________
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"Man will never be free until the last politician is strangled with the entrails of the last priest." Voltaire or Diderot
“When you hear ‘no immediate danger‘ from nuclear radiation then you should run away as far and as fast as you can.”
-Alexey Yablokov, member of the Russian academy of sciences and adviser to President Gorbachev at the time of Chernobyl
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06-24-2012, 01:31 PM
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#5
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Simplify, Do or Die
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Arkansas
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I can actually smell the rain in that picture! Delicious!
__________________
Life is short. Break the rules. Forgive quickly.
Kiss slowly. Love truly. Laugh uncontrollably,
and never regret anything that made you smile.
Women are Angels and when someone breaks our wings we simply continue to fly...on a broomstick. We are flexible like that
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06-24-2012, 01:50 PM
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#6
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fumbling around in the dark
Join Date: Aug 2008
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* AT 122 PM EDT.NATL WEATHER SVC DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR SAFETY HARBOR.OR NEAR CLEARWATER.MOVING NO. AT
35 MPH.
__________________
Guard with jealous attention the public liberty. Suspect everyone who approaches that jewel. Unfortunately, nothing will preserve it but downright force. Whenever you give up that force, you are inevitably ruined. ~ Patrick Henry
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06-24-2012, 01:59 PM
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#7
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Senior Level 2
Join Date: Oct 2009
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flourbug
* AT 122 PM EDT.NATL WEATHER SVC DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR SAFETY HARBOR.OR NEAR CLEARWATER.MOVING NO. AT
35 MPH.
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YUP!!
Posted the tornado warning in the new chat a little bit ago.
About to button up, unplug the computer and turn on BayNews 9
http://www.baynews9.com/
Be safe, FB and everyone in the affected counties:
Tornado Watch 422 remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for the
following locations
Florida counties included are
Broward
Charlotte
Citrus
Collier
DeSoto
Glades
Hardee
Hendry
Hernando
Highlands
Hillsborough
Lake
Lee
Levy
Manatee
Martin
Palm Beach
Pasco
Pinellas
Polk
Sarasota
Sumter
__________________
The untold want, by life and land ne’er granted,
Now, Voyager, sail thou forth, to seek and find.
Walt Whitman
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06-24-2012, 02:10 PM
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#8
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fumbling around in the dark
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Good idea, NV. We just had a rotating thunderstorm pass over us. Lots of roar but no bite. It's as dark as sunset outside - and for Florida in June, that is DARK.
For those interested, here's the weather map of my area:
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/...ap&query=34638
Pull out to see more.
Jason and I will be keeping the TBM server warm in Land O Lakes, NV is up in the Spring Hill area, and penquinzee is down in St Pete. Twoolf is up north... I believe Citrus County? Waiting to hear in from him as they are getting pounded too.
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06-24-2012, 06:08 PM
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#9
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. . .
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Wow, the forecast now predicts that Debby is going to stay off the Florida coast for days . . . while our forecast says 105. 
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06-24-2012, 06:12 PM
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#10
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Senior Level 2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dyrt
Wow, the forecast now predicts that Debby is going to stay off the Florida coast for days . . . while our forecast says 105. |
Wish we could send you a little of the rain 
Local station reporting 5 inches where we are in last 12 hours
Looks like Debby may linger in our area for a couple days
Ground is already saturated
Local flooding -- tornado watches / warnings till 8 p.m.
Dogs need to go out but won't
Street out front has about 4 - 5 inches standing water
Backyard looks like a little swamp
__________________
The untold want, by life and land ne’er granted,
Now, Voyager, sail thou forth, to seek and find.
Walt Whitman
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06-24-2012, 06:22 PM
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#11
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fumbling around in the dark
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Huge number of tornadoes breaking out in S. Florida... below the rain belts... one killed, property damage. Hope they don't travel up the state as the storm moves NE.
The pond behind our house seems to be absorbing the water well, still one foot under the docks, even though our yard is a swamp.
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06-24-2012, 06:29 PM
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#12
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Senior Level 2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flourbug
Huge number of tornadoes breaking out in S. Florida... below the rain belts... one killed, property damage. Hope they don't travel up the state as the storm moves NE.
The pond behind our house seems to be absorbing the water well, still one foot under the docks, even though our yard is a swamp.
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I hope not, too!!!
I could kick myself for saying I'd prefer tropical storms to hurricanes.
I still do, actually, but Debby is spinning off buckets of rain and twisters, but not making much forward progress; know what I mean?
__________________
The untold want, by life and land ne’er granted,
Now, Voyager, sail thou forth, to seek and find.
Walt Whitman
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06-24-2012, 06:43 PM
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#13
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. . .
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NowVoyager
Wish we could send you a little of the rain |
Thank you for the offer. I would like to order about 2 inches a day for the next five days. We can easily handle that.
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06-24-2012, 07:16 PM
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#14
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Senior Level 2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dyrt
Thank you for the offer. I would like to order about 2 inches a day for the next five days. We can easily handle that.
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Cool!!
I'll see what we can do about that 
__________________
The untold want, by life and land ne’er granted,
Now, Voyager, sail thou forth, to seek and find.
Walt Whitman
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06-24-2012, 09:27 PM
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#15
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Searcher for Truth and a good Carpachio
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This is bordering on the ridiculous. Just checked my weather station and we're at over 9" since midnight. Winds have been pretty low, with nothing over 18MPH. I've pumped out the pool twice, and will need to do it again before bedtime. No tornado warnings here YET. It wouldn't surprise me a bit if we topped a foot by bedtime. Thankfully, I've got lots of books and beer, a generator and 50 gallons of gas. I'm good for the duration.
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Men rarely (if ever) manage to dream up a god superior to themselves. Most gods have the manners and morals of a spoiled child. R.A.H.
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06-24-2012, 09:32 PM
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#16
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ripple in still water
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Arkansas
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Come to Arkansas, Debby! But leave the tornadoes behind...
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06-24-2012, 09:43 PM
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#17
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Senior Level 3
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: East TN
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This latest track is bad news for FL but it looks like maybe, maybe, if it keeps moving north, we might get some of it in TN. Here's hoping.
__________________
"I think the most un-American thing you can say is, 'You can't say that.'” Garrison Keillor
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06-24-2012, 09:51 PM
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#18
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Senior Level 2
Join Date: Oct 2009
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Twoolf
This is bordering on the ridiculous. Just checked my weather station and we're at over 9" since midnight. Winds have been pretty low, with nothing over 18MPH. I've pumped out the pool twice, and will need to do it again before bedtime. No tornado warnings here YET. It wouldn't surprise me a bit if we topped a foot by bedtime. Thankfully, I've got lots of books and beer, a generator and 50 gallons of gas. I'm good for the duration.
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We're not far from US 19 and SR 50 and Bay News 9 was reporting radar indicating a small tornado possible in area
Got nasty enough I grabbed the dogs and we hunkered down in the laundry room.
Now it's just moderately heavy rain, some wind.
Gonna be a long night.
Dogs and I will camp out on the couch with Bay News 9 on the tv
__________________
The untold want, by life and land ne’er granted,
Now, Voyager, sail thou forth, to seek and find.
Walt Whitman
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06-24-2012, 10:59 PM
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#19
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it's time for the Guillotine, again
Join Date: Aug 2008
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Arkansas may get what you want if the BAMS model plays out.
That's not likely, but you can focus your collective energy on it and make it come true...can't you?
__________________
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"Man will never be free until the last politician is strangled with the entrails of the last priest." Voltaire or Diderot
“When you hear ‘no immediate danger‘ from nuclear radiation then you should run away as far and as fast as you can.”
-Alexey Yablokov, member of the Russian academy of sciences and adviser to President Gorbachev at the time of Chernobyl
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06-24-2012, 11:02 PM
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#20
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Searcher for Truth and a good Carpachio
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The BAMS models are some of the oldest, and most unreliable. I wouldn't pay much attention to them.
__________________
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Men rarely (if ever) manage to dream up a god superior to themselves. Most gods have the manners and morals of a spoiled child. R.A.H.
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06-24-2012, 11:13 PM
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#21
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Denizen of the Gold Fields
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flourbug
I'm starting a thread for Debby, which is now in the middle of the GoM. Spaghetti models over the last few days have shown Debby all over the place - from the Tex/Mex border to NOLA and down to Tampa Bay.
Latest info shows Debby moving towards the big bend of Florida, where a secondary convection has formed and is pulling the developing hurricane towards the coast.
Up to the minute news, links, and videos in our new breaking news feature CLICK HERE. |
Debby only moving at 3 mph..,
She could go anywhere.
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(='.'=) This is Bunny. Copy and paste bunny into your
(")_(") signature to help her gain world domination
Can't leave the Siwwy Wabbit behind!!
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06-24-2012, 11:28 PM
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#22
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it's time for the Guillotine, again
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GFS and UKMET take it to the East over FL, HWRF sends it North to Catbird....that's a huge discrepancy among the most powerful models.
__________________
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"Man will never be free until the last politician is strangled with the entrails of the last priest." Voltaire or Diderot
“When you hear ‘no immediate danger‘ from nuclear radiation then you should run away as far and as fast as you can.”
-Alexey Yablokov, member of the Russian academy of sciences and adviser to President Gorbachev at the time of Chernobyl
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06-24-2012, 11:31 PM
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#23
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Searcher for Truth and a good Carpachio
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Problem is, garbage in, garbage out. There is very little trend data points for the models to work with. A good forecaster and old fashioned "Tennessee windage" is probably more accurate.
__________________
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Men rarely (if ever) manage to dream up a god superior to themselves. Most gods have the manners and morals of a spoiled child. R.A.H.
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06-24-2012, 11:33 PM
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#24
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Senior Level 3
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We're down 7" for the year so far. Since DH is off tomorrow, I plan on having him do a rain dance  tomorrow evening.
Apologies to you folks in AR but that should guarantee that Debby pays us a visit here in TN.
__________________
"I think the most un-American thing you can say is, 'You can't say that.'” Garrison Keillor
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06-25-2012, 12:26 AM
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#25
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one of those hopelessly disorganized people
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Wow hurricanes, tornadoes, and tropical storms?!? Why don't you all just move close to Auburn Boy and I? Nothing to worry about here! (earthquakes, frothing at the mouth liberalism, volcanoes, and radioactive washup from Japan don't count! ) Besides, property values are way down right now! LOL
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