Swine flu likely claimed quarter of a million lives: study

[Exodia]

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/swine-flu-l...232858163.html

Study includes mortality estimates from SE Asia and Africa.

Swine flu likely claimed quarter of a million lives: study

The team estimated there were 284,500 deaths from swine flu in the 12 months from April 2009. But the figure may be as high as 575,400, they said.

Between 250,000 and 500,000 people die of seasonal influenza every year, according to the WHO.

In the flu 2009 season, H1N1 was the "predominant virus", said Dawood.

But comparing the numbers alone did not yield an accurate picture, she stressed, as 80 percent of swine flu victims were younger than 65, while the yearly seasonal flu mainly tends to claim older victims.

[Kassy]

The dutch morning news tripped over this.

I was sipping coffee reading the paper and ignoring most of the news stuff (the same old same old) and then the presenter guy started talking about 'griep' and that woke me up a bit. He talked about higher deathrates then previously stated and then mentioned the mexican H5N1 pandemic. That really did wake me up because it's so wrong.

Some editor had messed up reports. At the same time there is this report on the H1N1 death rates and there's one about the published death rates/cfr etc in H5N1.

As to this estimate.

If we take the new highest number as true it's still much lower then 1957 and 1968 pandemics while population doubled or tripled in that time.


http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504763_1...s-study-finds/

Bit more detail:
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/247042.php

[Sysiphus]

I don't buy 200K+ (80% of 284K) excess deaths among the under 65 population. Even in SE Asia and Africa, numbers like that would get noticed very quickly. When a young adult dies unexpectedly of something other than malaria in Africa or SE Asia, it is picked up very quickly by the authorities. For example, when there is a Yellow Fever outbreak, or a particularly bad dengue hemorhagic fever. Children and the elderly, not so much, but that is not what they are saying here.

[gsgs]

flu victims usually die from heart attack or such.
The numbers are estimates of excess deaths
that occur during a flu-wave

[Sysiphus]

Agreed, but my point that it is quite conspicuous when a 25 year old dies suddenly (whether heart attack or pneumonia). People are going to notice when hundreds of young adults start doing so. If it were striking seniors, i would agree with the study's conclusion.

[CanadaSue]

The 'numbers' are highly speculative. I certainly don't doubt there were excess deaths & based on what we know, it stands to reason that more than a usual % were under 65s.

But as far as pandemics go - we dodged a bullet. This could have been SO mcu worse. Just in Canada - the worst of it had come & gone before the vax rolled out. With a more infectious, virulent strain - that would have been disasterous.

[gsgs]

I haven't read the study, but with such large populations
the uncertainety is usually low.

the younger victims also often have 2ndary conditions,
some illness that is worsened by the flu.

for USA see here:
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates_2009_h1n1.htm




in summer 2009 the predictions were much more pessimistic.
In the long run the pandemic could even have been "good".
It replaced tamiflu-resistant old H1N1, H3N2 usually
kills more people than H1N1 but H1N1 partly replaces H3N2
by virus-immunity-competition.

The 2011/12 season had particularly few deaths in USA,
although they had H1,H3 and B and the vaccine was
not so well matched.
Deaths from flu were on a record low as well as deaths from all causes.

Was that the influence of mexflu ?!?


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abstract here:
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/la...121-4/fulltext

full text costs $31.5