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Old 09-08-2011, 11:46 AM   #22
Auburn Boy
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Originally Posted by Catbird View Post
Thought you might want to see this. Might want to check the website of your state Health Dept. and see if there is further info.

"Two more cases of a new strain of swine flu were confirmed Monday by Pennsylvania officials. Both are connected to an agricultural fair in southwestern Pennsylvania and bring the total number of cases reported to date to four.

On Friday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported two infections of the novel influenza A virus. One involved an Indiana boy and the other was a girl from Pennsylvania who had been to the Washington County Fair the week of Aug. 13-20, the same fair attended by those in the two newest cases..."
Historically, "County Fairs" have been sources of sporadic outbreaks of novel cross-breeds of flu. Small case counts, but unnerving to the flu followers.

---------- Post added at 08:45 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:41 AM ----------

Originally Posted by CanadaSue View Post
He's jumping the gun - again. I see no suggestion of 'strong support' H-H transmission. Were that the case, we'd be several transmission generations down the road at this stage with more confirmed cases. Granted, lab testing/reporting time is always slower than anyone would like & if anyone contracted this novel strain without feelng a need to seek medical attention, a lot of potential cases are being missed.

That being said, I often wonder how many novel strains enjoy a quick run with mild illness, then peter out. Impossible to tell.
You have hit the proverbial nail right on the haid!!!

There are probably myriads of "dead end recombinomics" we NEVER see hide-nor-hair of because they burn out in very short order.

Flu is a roulette wheel with millions of transcription combinations with very few real winners. Or maybe more like a state lottery.

---------- Post added at 08:46 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:45 AM ----------

Originally Posted by CanadaSue View Post
Catbird, I'm glad you posted it. With flu virions being so mutable, I sometimes wonder that we're able to catch the emergence of new strains at all - save when they produce as truly nasty strain. I'll bet in any given flu season, dozens of 'emergent' strains ty their hardest to become established but fail. Either they're shouldered aside by more robust new strains, fail to make an impact in the presence of currently circulating ones or just don't have what it takes to succeed. It's possible some do but luckily for us, the train of transmission ends before it can continue. How any times have we avoided a pandemic because ONE case of something truly horrendous may have infected someone who lived alone & either died alone, (with no detailed testing beng done), or somehow recovered when the possible next 10 cases might have seen a very different outcome? We'll never know. Not sure I want to - I only have so any hairs that can turn grey.

It's clearly not that easy for a truly pandemic strain to emerge under any circumstances & I'll put forth that the exactly right circumstances, (which probably vary by strain), have to exist before we see serious pandemics. History bears this out. Flu has been around a long time, is a common aspect of shared human experience yet hs produced relatively few deadly pandemics.

What we are seeing - or think we're seeing - may e a matter of sheer luck. We may be viewing the birth & early development of the next predominant strain of H3N2 which is moreof a 'nuisance flu' for most or... we may e in on the earliest days of a real: "Oh shit!" strain.

We can only wait & watch.
LOL! Ditto. (LEts see if the appending aggregator catches this post..,)
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